830
FXUS62 KKEY 200254
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1054 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1054 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

Winds are on a downward trend after a surge developed in the late
afternoon and early evening hours. Winds quickly clocked around
from the southwest, becoming west to northwest and reaching
sustained speeds of around 15 knots. Within the last hour these
winds are quickly coming down and boxing around the compass again.
Convection that was out across the southeast Gulf of Mexico
dissipated well before it got to our waters. Meanwhile, convection
is blossoming along an outflow boundary from prior showers and
thunderstorms that develop along the north coast of Cuba. These
showers and thunderstorms have entered the Straits of Florida
between the Marathon Humps and Cay Sal Bank. This current activity
is trekking north to northeast.

Going through the overnight, additional convection is possible
given how many ghost boundaries are out there. Where and which
ones will light up remains questionable. Hi-res CAMs suggest that
an outflow boundary moving northwest from the convection centered
near Cay Sal Bank will have the "best" potential of triggering new
convection. It remains to be seen how far northwest it will get
and if it will stall across the island chain overnight. For now
will maintain 40 percent PoPs given the uncertainties listed
above. Nonetheless, tonight through Tuesday morning will be the
best period to see accumulating rain in the past 2 weeks.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1054 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

The western extent of a low-level ridge axis that
extends west-northwest has begun to loosen its grip across the
Florida Keys. At the same time a frontal boundary is sliding south
across the Florida Peninsula, which has shifted breezes from the
northwest. These breezes will briefly go light and variable
overnight before becoming south to southwest by Monday morning.
Lastly, there may be a break in the rain-free conditions tonight
through Tuesday, followed by variable breezes turning to the east
Wednesday through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 1054 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

VFR conditions will prevail for now. Watching for the potential
for showers and thunderstorms to develop along remnant
boundaries. Given uncertainty on the placement of individual
boundaries and which boundaries will trigger convection, will at
least maintain mentions of VCSH but have omitted TS for a later
update.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...LIW
Aviation/Nowcasts....LIW
Data Acquisition.....DR

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