Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KKEY 180830

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
430 AM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017

Winds along the islands are generally around 5 knots over the past
several hours, with coastal waters winds near 10 knots. The
exception has been Pulaski Shoal Light, which has been
consistently 10 to 15 knots. Key West radar is showing moderate
showers along the lower Keys and a large swath of moderate to
heavy showers in the waters to the southwest between the lower
Keys and Cuba. The evening sounding at Key West found a fairly
saturated profile with decent cape in the lowest 3 km. Surface
analysis shows the stalled front over south Florida oriented
southwest to northeast just north of lake Okeechobee.

A combination of favorable upper dynamics along the base of the
mid to upper trough, confluence in the boundary layer, as well as
ample moisture, should result in continued showers over the area
until the trough axis passes to the east. There is a possibility
of a thunderstorm or two, although model soundings do not show a
favorable environment as cape remains fairly moderate. The trough
should push through by Wednesday early evening with rain chances
decreasing thereafter. Surface winds will remain relatively light
through Thursday.


Beginning Thursday evening into Friday morning a large high
pressure area sitting over the eastern seaboard will begin bridging
into the Keys. This will tighten the pressure gradient and winds
will begin ramping up Friday afternoon and hold through Sunday as
the ridge moves out into the Atlantic. Sunday through Tuesday will
be more of a typical pattern with a Bermuda high maintaining
gentle to moderate southeast breezes and a low chance of showers.
On Wednesday, it now appears possible that the first front of the
season may be pushing through the Keys, possible passing through
by Wednesday evening.


Gentle to moderate northeast to east breezes will persist
Wednesday. Numerous showers, and possibly an isolated
thunderstorm, can be expected across all Florida Keys coastal


Light rain will continue this morning mostly for EYW and it will
reach MTH later this morning. Showers/isolated TSRA will impact EYW
and/or MTH today, causing reduction to the visibilities and low
cigs. Winds will be generally from the northeast to east at 5 to 10


Key West  86  75  87  78 / 70 40 30 30
Marathon  86  77  87  78 / 70 40 30 30




Data Collection......99

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