Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KKEY 260110

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
910 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017

.DISCUSSION...In the middle and upper levels(700-200 mb), latest
available satelitte imagery overlaid with model streamline
analysis as of 800 pm depicts broad low amplitude cyclonic flow
across roughly four/fifths of the CONUS. Along the southern base
of the troughing, a shortwave is identified in the North Central
Gulf of Mexico south of Louisiana. Southeast of that, and closer
to the Florida Keys, a northeast to southwest oriented regional
scale ridge is oriented from near 30 N 75 W southwest to around 24
N 85 W.

At the surface and in the lower to middle levels(Surface to 700
mb), latest marine and land observations and analysis detail
another cold front parked from near Cape Hatteras southwest to the
Florida Panhandle. South of that, a surface ridge is oriented
from the West Central Atlantic west southwestwards to across
South Florida. As a result, the 00Z sounding at Key West
illustrated a gentle to moderate yet east to southeast flow from
off the surface to about 500 mb, and columnar PWAT was typically
moderately moist at 1.67 inches.

.CURRENTLY...As of 800 am, skies are mostly clear across the
islands and adjoining waters. Temperatures remain in the middle
80s with dewpoints in the upper 70s. Key West radar does not
detect any echoes attm. C-man stations along the Florida Reef are
recording east to southeast winds at 10 to 15 knots. Island
sensors are also 10 to 15 mph.

.SHORT TERM...Overnight, Given the ridging remaining across
Florida from the Western Atlantic, expect a very typical early
summer trade winds pattern overnight, which will also be
accompanied with slight moistening in the lower to middle levels.
Available forecast soundings are indicating PWAT rising to around
1.75 inches or higher. This will allow for the nocturnal
development of widely scattered showers and isolated storms late
tonight, after 0600Z, upstream of the Keys over the very warm
gulf stream waters, which are already running in the middle to
upper 80s. Only a few adjustments will be made to remove
transitional wording and adjust winds on a quick update, but will
retain low chance, 30 percent for showers.


.MARINE...Overnight, Moderate breezes earlier this evening have
become more gentle given the proximity to the ridge over the
Peninsula. No headlines or advisories expected.


.AVIATION...Thru 18Z, expect development of widely scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms after about 0600Z, but any
MVFR even IFR impact will be of short duration if they impact
either/both terminals on account of these showers, hence
amendments will be issued as necessary.


.CLIMATE...On this date in 1992, 5.14 inches of rain fell at Key West
International Airport, making June 25, 1992 the "all-time"
wettest June day in Key West, with precipitation records going
back to 1871.



Upper Air/Data Collection......DR

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