Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KKEY 031316
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
916 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
WINDS ARE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AROUND 10 KNOTS AT THE ISLAND
TERMINALS. WIND SPEEDS AT THE C-MAN STATIONS ARE SPREAD WITH PULASKI
SHOAL...SMITH SHOAL AND SAND KEY NEAR 10 KNOTS...LONG KEY AND
MOLASSES REEF AT 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS STRETCHING ACROSS FLORIDA AND
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARD THE GULF COAST...AND THE HIGH PRESSURE IS
SLOWLY SLIDING EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.

.FORECAST...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MORNING SOUNDING
SHOWS AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS...WITH A FAIRLY DECENT WIND
PROFILE FOR ISLAND CLOUD LINES...BUT TOO MUCH DRY AIR ALOFT TO ALLOW
FOR MORE THAN ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
DECREASE DURING THE DAY...BECOMING VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. WITH THE
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT OF THE WINDS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ABUNDANT
AND CAN BE FELT IN HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 85 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES
WILL CLIMB TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S THIS AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH
MENTIONED ABOVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF COAST AND HEAD FOR THE
KEYS WITH A LATE SEASON FRONT APPROACHING THE KEYS WEDNESDAY
EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE WHILE CLOCKING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST
TO NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AHEAD OF A TROUGH WILL PASSING THROUGH THE
KEYS AREA LATE WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL FRESHEN AND CLOCK AROUND TO THE
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WINDS WILL PEAK AND
LULL THROUGH THE DIURNAL CYCLE DUE TO THE THERMAL GRADIENT ACTIVATED
MAINLY BY THE PENINSULA. THERE WILL LIKELY BE PERIODS OF CAUTION
THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
ESPECIALLY OVER THE STRAITS THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
OUTSIDE OF A BRIEF SUB VFR CEILING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT THE
KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS. SOUTHEAST WINDS OF AROUND 10 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS NEAR 15 KNOTS WILL TURN SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...1957...1.51 INCHES OF RAIN
FELL IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR RAINFALL IN KEY WEST
ON MAY 3RD...WHICH STANDS 59 YEARS LATER. RAINFALL RECORDS FOR KEY
WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....APA
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

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