Area Forecast Discussion
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834
FXUS62 KKEY 120331
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1031 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND THE ADJACENT GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS. WINDS ARE LIGHT
TO GENTLE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. THIS FLOW ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE
ISLAND CHAIN HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME DECOUPLING...AND WINDS ARE
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER OVER LAND. THE WEAK FLOW OVER LAND AND CLEAR
SKIES HAS ALREADY RESULTED IN RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER PORTIONS OF
THE ISLAND CHAIN. TEMPERATURES HAVE DIPPED BELOW 55 AT THE
OFFICE...HOWEVER MOST SENSORS ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S. DEW POINTS ARE SITTING NEAR 50. THE COOL
DRY CONDITIONS IN A STABLE ENVIRONMENT HAS PREVENTED EVEN A HINT OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY.

SHORT TERM UPDATE - THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...KEEPING A
LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE KEYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY
RANGE QUITE A BIT...STAYING NEAR OR ABOVE 60 CLOSE TO THE COASTLINE OR
IN PLACES WHERE A FLOW ARRIVING FROM OVER WATER PERSISTS. OTHER
LOCATIONS THAT DO DECOUPLE...ESPECIALLY THE LARGER ISLANDS AND WHERE
THE FLOW IS PARALLEL TO THE ISLANDS...COULD FALL TO THE DEW POINTS.
HAVE UPDATED THE LOCAL FORECAST NUDGE TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT. WINDS
SHOULD COME UP A BIT IN THE PREDAWN HOURS DUE TO WEAK COOL AIR
DRAINAGE OFF OF SOUTH FLORIDA. IF ANYTHING HOWEVER...THIS WOULD ACT
TO MIX IN WARMER AIR FROM GULF AND BAY SIDE WATERS CURRENTLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED AND SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR TO CLEAR.

&&

.MARINE...
A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND OUT ACROSS THE
ADJACENT GULF AND ATLANTIC. THIS IS KEEPING LIGHT TO GENTLE
NORTHEAST BREEZES PREVAIL OVER FLORIDA KEYS GULF AND BAY SIDE WATERS
AND HAWK CHANNEL. CAUTIONS DO REMAIN FOR THE FLORIDA STRAITS...DUE TO
THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT FURTHER AWAY FROM THE RIDGE AXIS. A
SUBTLE WIND SURGE IS EXPECTED IN THE PREDAWN HOURS DUE TO COOL AIR
DRAINAGE. ONLY MINOR CHANGE MADE IN THE MARINE UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
SUSTAINED NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS NEAR 25 KNOTS FROM JUST OFF THE
SURFACE TO ABOUT 3000 FEET WILL DECREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1875...THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST WAS 85 DEGREES. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD
FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON FEBRUARY 11TH...A
RECORD WHICH STILL STANDS 141 YEARS LATER. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT
KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....BS

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