Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 191907
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
207 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE FLORIDA KEYS...TEMPERATURES ARE IN
THE MID 70S. WINDS ARE GENTLE TO MODERATE FROM THE NORTHEAST TO EAST.
KBYX IS VOID OF PRECIPITATION ECHOES.

A SLOWLY MODERATING BUT RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS UNDER A VERY LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL KEEP MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS IN THE LOCAL AREA
FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE PERIODS. WE CAN EXPECT NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AS AN EXTENSION OF HIGHER SURFACE
PRESSURE BUBBLES JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST OFF THE FLORIDA COAST. TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS WITH AN EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS RETURNS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ON DEEPENING SOUTHERLY BREEZES...OUR RAIN CHANCE
PICKS UP ON TUESDAY WELL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THAT
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS LATE
WEDNESDAY OR VERY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WILL BE STICKING VERY CLOSE
TO THE GFS MOS POPS FROM TUESDAY ONWARD...BASICALLY VERY CLOSE TO
WHAT OUR LATEST GRIDS AND FORECASTS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING. BUT I WILL
BE WELL UNDER ITS NUMBERS FOR POPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...PERIODS WHERE
THAT MODEL HAS BEEN VERY INCONSISTENT FOR THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS.

THURSDAY TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE...IF AT ALL...BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. A COOL THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
RAPIDLY MODERATING CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE TRAILING THE FRONT
SETTLES NEARBY AND TURNS THE STEERING FLOW MORE DEEPLY FROM THE EAST.
AS FAR AS THUNDERSTORMS...KEPT THAT FRAMED FOR THE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY DAYTIME PERIODS ONLY ON THIS FORECAST. AND THE ONLY OTHER
SUBTLE DIFFERENCE ON THIS UPCOMING ISSUANCE IS TO HOLD ON TO SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING IN THE STRAITS BEFORE THE
FRONT CLEARS THOSE WATERS.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHEAST/EAST BREEZES TO TURN SLOWLY BUT
STEADILY TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A MORE MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW PICKS UP AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND THEN
PICKS UP OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN EXERCISE CAUTION
FOR SMALL CRAFT IS PROBABLE FOR THAT LAST PERIOD...AND AN ADVISORY
FOR SMALL CRAFT IS POSSIBLE. KEEP ABREAST OF OUR UPCOMING FORECASTS
IF YOU HAVE BOATING PLANS FOR CHRISTMAS EVE OR CHRISTMAS DAY IN THE
WATERS SURROUNDING THE FLORIDA KEYS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EAST
BREEZE WILL TURN SLOWLY TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST BY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1905...0.95 INCHES OF RAIN
WAS RECORDED IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RAINFALL RECORD FOR
DECEMBER 19 IN KEY WEST. RAINFALL RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO
1871.

&&

.PRELIM POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  67  78  70  79 / 0 0 -  -
MARATHON  67  78  69  79 / 0 0 -  -

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........04
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....04
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

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