Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 030232
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1032 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...THERE IS A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. ACCORDING TO THE VORTICITY PRODUCTS
FROM CIMSS...AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TO
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA. A WEAK CYCLONIC ENVELOPE CAN ALSO BE INFERRED
FROM THE STORM MOTION. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST
IN THE EASTERN STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHILE STORMS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
PLUNGE TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS EVENING`S 00Z RAOB OBSERVATION SAMPLED
DEEP EASTERLIES...AND A LITTLE LESS DRY AIR COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW
DAYS. TEMPERATURES ARE SULTRY ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN...MID 80S. THE
LATEST SCANS FROM THE KBYX RADAR INDICATE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STRAITS. THIS WEAK UNDULATION WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE KEYS OVERNIGHT. THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND
FEATURES RAIN CHANCES AT 30%...ABOVE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL OUTPUT.

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...UNTIL 12Z/3RD...THE BEST CHANCE FOR A MVFR ENCOUNTER OR
TWO WILL BE BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z...OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS. OUTSIDE OF ANY
POSSIBLE SHOWERS OR A STRAY THUNDERSTORM...MOSTLY EAST WINDS WILL
RANGE BETWEEN 8 AND 12 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO BETWEEN 15 AND
18 KNOTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...1935...4.12 INCHES
OF RAIN FELL IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD RAINFALL FOR KEY
WEST ON JUNE 2ND...WHICH STANDS 80 YEARS LATER. RAINFALL RECORDS FOR
KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........CLR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....APA

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