Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 281003
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
605 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY... SKIES ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN. MEANWHILE...LOCAL
RADARS ARE DETECTING A LARGE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THE WATERS ON THE WATERS NORTH OF THE MARQUESAS KEYS AND DRY
TORTUGAS...TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF MAINLAND MONROE 40 TO 60 NM
WEST OF EAST CAPE SABLE. ELSEWHERE...NO PRECIPITATION ECHOES ARE
BEING SEEN ACROSS THE REST OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...ALTHOUGH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...A LOW AND
MID LEVEL WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD AND ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA AND OUR REGION TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY
LIFTING NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS MIGRATION TO THE NORTH WILL
BE IN RESPONSE TO TROPICAL SYSTEM ERIKA TRACKING WEST NORTHWEST AND
INTO THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND THE SOUTHEAST TIP OF THE ISLAND OF
CUBA. BUT UNTIL THEN...SOME DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO OUR AREA OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS PROMPTING CLIMO POPS TO RETURN TODAY AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE 20 PERCENT POPS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
THEREAFTER...AN INCREASING AND DEEPENING NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW WILL
RESULT IN SOME LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE...HENCE...LOW CHANCE POPS WILL
BE KEPT. MEANWHILE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR OR JUST
ABOVE 90 DEGREES WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 80S.


&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DUE TO THE DISORGANIZATION AND
EQUATORWARD TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA...UNCERTAINTY HAS
INCREASED SUBSTANTIALLY DUE TO EXPECTED WIND SHEAR BUT THE
LIKELIHOOD OF ADDITIONAL INTERACTION WITH PUERTO RICO AND ESPECIALLY
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ON A SIDE NOTE...THE DOMINICAN  REPUBLIC HAS
THE REPUTATION OF BEING THE GRAVE YARD FOR MANY POTENTIAL TROPICAL
SYSTEMS. REGARDLESS...AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE WITH AN INCREASING
EASTERLY FLOW WILL AT LEAST PROVIDE ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. IN WAKE OF THIS TROPICAL
SYSTEM...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD WESTWARD AND INTO OUR AREA
PROVIDING SOME DRIER AIR...SUBSEQUENTLY...NEAR OR JUST BELOW AVERAGE
POPS WILL BE RETAINED.

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE DRAPED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD...ALLOWING LIGHT TO GENTLE EASTERLY
WINDS TO SLOWLY INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE WIND FORECAST
IS QUITE "UNCERTAIN" DUE TO VERY LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE
ORGANIZATION AND GENERAL TRACK OF TROPICAL SYSTEM ERICA.
SUBSEQUENTLY...MARINERS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST ADVISORIES ON
TROPICAL STORM ERICA.

&&

.AVIATION...
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHEASTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRING IN SUB
VFR CONDITIONS AND AMENDMENTS WILL BE ISSUED AS NECESSARY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST 91 84 91 83 / 30 20 20 30
MARATHON 93 83 93 83 / 30 20 20 30

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........APA
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....EV

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