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595
FXUS62 KKEY 170110
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
910 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX detects isolated showers over Florida Bay, as well as over
nearshore Gulf of Mexico waters north of the Middle Keys.
Elsewhere, KBYX detects no precipitation echoes in the remainder
of the forecast area. Skies over the island chain are partly
cloudy. Winds over land are north to northeast near 5 mph. C-MAN
winds, on average, are north to northeast near 5 knots.
Temperatures are in the lower 80s.

.SHORT TERM (Overnight)...
In the low to mid levels of the atmosphere, a cold front will
progress southward down the northern half of the Florida peninsula
overnight. In the upper levels of the atmosphere, a trough of low
pressure will be located over the north central Gulf of Mexico
tonight. The 00z KKEY sounding is moderately unstable and dry for
the middle of October, with a precipitable water (PWAT) value just
above one and one half of an inch. Atmospheric moisture will
increase tonight. By sunrise Tuesday, PWAT values will be just
below one and three quarters of an inch, which is near normal for
this time of year. Lack of an apparent convective trigger will be
responsible for only slight chance POPs tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Light north to northeast breezes will prevail on all Keys coastal
waters overnight. No advisories expected tonight through at least
Thursday. A Small Craft Advisory may be required for the coastal
waters of the offshore Gulf of Mexico Thursday night and Friday. A
Small Craft Advisory will likely be required for all Keys coastal
waters Friday night. No advisories expected Saturday and Saturday
night.

&&

.AVIATION...
Expect prevailing VFR to persist at EYW and MTH. Light breezes
near 5 knots will generally be out of the north, but flow will be
variable at times.

&&

.CLIMATE...
On this date in Florida Keys weather history, in 1889, a high
temperature of 73 degrees was observed in Key West. This set the
daily record for coolest maximum temperature for October 16th.
The high temperature at Key West International Airport reached 88
degrees today. Temperature records at Key West date back to 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...BS
Aviation/Nowcasts....MCLOVIN
Data Collection......Chesser

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