Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 231544
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1044 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A MARITIME TROPICAL AIR MASS NOW COVERS THE ENTIRE SERVICE AREA...
WITH CURRENT AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S AND DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS PREVAIL IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES BEING MAINTAINED ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA REEF TRACT...AS A LARGE ANTICYCLONE OF
CONTINENTAL ORIGIN SLOWLY WEAKENS OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC
BASIN. AN APPRAISAL OF KEY WEST RADIOSONDE BALLOON DATA OVER THE LAST
24 HOURS INDICATES A DRYING TREND IN THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE...WITH
WARMING THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE TROPOSPHERIC COLUMN. THIS IN TURN HAS
INCREASED OVERALL STATIC STABILITY AND PROVIDED A MORE HOSTILE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEEP...MOIST CONVECTION. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS
DECIDEDLY LESS ACROSS THE SERVICE AREA THIS MORNING THAN HAS BEEN THE
CASE DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS...WITH ONLY ISOLATED CELLS DETECTED BY
RECENT KEY WEST DOPPLER RADAR SCANS.

FEW CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO THE FORECASTS THIS MORNING. AFTERNOON
AIR TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK IN THE MID 80S UNDER SKIES RANGING FROM
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY.
&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ZONES COVERING THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. OBSERVED WINDS AT BOTH MOLASSES
REEF AND SOMBRERO KEY STATIONS HAVE BEEN SUSTAINED NEAR 20 KNOTS WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS. WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE LOWER AT
THE SAND KEY STATION...WITH LIGHTER WINDS EVEN STILL OVER FLORIDA BAY
AND THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ALSO...A SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE IS BEING RETAINED FOR HAWK CHANNEL ZONES
WITH NO HEADLINES ELSEWHERE. BREEZES SHOULD SLACKEN FURTHER ALL ZONES
TONIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A PASSING SHOWER IS POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...AVIATION IMPACTS ARE UNLIKELY. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS...WITH BRIEF GUSTY WINDS UP TO 15
KNOTS. THEN...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
AND SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE...NOVEMBER 23...IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...
IN 1957...THE DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 86F WAS RECORDED.
TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR GMZ052-GMZ053-GMZ054-
     GMZ055-GMZ072-GMZ073-GMZ074-GMZ075.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KN
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

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