Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 050225
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1021 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...LOCAL RADARS ARE DETECTING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE OUTER WATERS OF
MAINLAND MONROE...TO THE MARQUESAS KEYS AND DRY TORTUGAS AND
SOUTHWARD FOR OVER 60 NM. ELSEWHERE...A FEW SHOWERS ARE LOCATED ON
THE OFFSHORE WATERS BEYOND 20 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE MIDDLE KEYS.
SURFACE WISE...A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS ALIGNED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
AND EXTENDS WELL INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. ON OUR MARINE
DISTRICT...WINDS ARE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
OTHERWISE...OUR EVENING SOUNDING IS VERY MOIST (PWAT 2.02 INCHES)
WITH LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTIVE INHIBITION.

.SHORT TERM (OVERNIGHT)...
A MID AND UPPER LEVEL GYRE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN
SEA NORTHWARD INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND SOUTH FLORIDA...WILL
MIGRATE SLOWLY WESTWARD AS THE LOW LEVEL REFLECTION TROUGH
DISSIPATES. IN WAKE OF THIS TRANSITORY FEATURE...THE DEEP
TROPOSPHERIC WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK INTO OUR REGION.
WITH THAT SAID...A PLETHORA OF BOUNDARIES WITH NEUTRAL
ASCENT/DESCENT ALOFT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS.
OUTSIDE OF RAINFALL...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE IN THE LOWER 80S
WITH MOSTLY EAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

.MARINE...
A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL DRAPED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN A SLIGHT INCREASE
OF WINDS ACROSS THE MARINE DISTRICT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE CONCEIVABLE AT
EYW AND MTH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS POSSIBILITY IS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS TIME. SUSTAINED EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS EXPECTED FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE TO
ABOUT 5000 FEET.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL...APA
AVIATION.............................BWC
DATA ACQUISITION.....................FLING

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