Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KKEY 272006
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
304 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

...HAPPY THANKSGIVING...

.DISCUSSION...
ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN...SKIES ARE SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES
AVERAGING NEAR 70 DEGREES WITH NORTH WINDS RANGING BETWEEN 15 AND 25
MPH. SURFACE WISE...A SUBTLE COLD FRONT/TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS...WITH AN
EXTENSIVE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. ACROSS OUR MARINE
DISTRICT...OBSERVATIONS VARY FROM 15 TO 20 KNOTS EXCEPT 24 KNOTS AT
SAND KEY LIGHT. MEANWHILE...LOCAL RADARS ARE NOT DETECTING ANY
PRECIPITATION ECHOES.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTHWARD...AND
REINFORCE A COOL AND VERY DRY AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS OUR
REGION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL MOVE QUICKLY INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
SATURDAY...WITH A RIDGE REACHING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND THE GULF
COAST REGION SUNDAY. BECAUSE OF THE MIGRATORY FLOW ALOFT...A
PREDOMINATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL ENSURE WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH
SATURDAY...BEFORE MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND MOISTENING OCCURS
WITHIN A DEEPENING AND STRENGTHENING EASTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
A WESTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE ALIGNED ACROSS THE GULF
COAST AND SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...BEFORE BEING REINFORCED BY
ANOTHER REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. MEANWHILE...BOTH GFS
AND ECMWF INDICATE A MID AND UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW SETTING UP
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...BUT WITH DIFFERING
AMPLITUDE....POSITIONING AND TIMING. REGARDLESS...A DEEPENING AND
STRONG EASTERLY FLOW WILL PROMPT 20 PERCENT POPS TO BE
RETAINED...BUT CHANCE POPS WILL LIKELY BE INSERTED FOR AT LEAST A
FEW PERIODS. OTHERWISE...FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WITH DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR 80 AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS NEAR 70 DEGREES.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL ON ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE WINDS SLACKEN INTO THE FRESH OR
PERHAPS MODERATE CATEGORY DUE TO COOL WATERS NORTH OF THE KEYS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. BUT UNTIL THEN...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. FOR THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK...FRESH
TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ON ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS
WHEN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY/EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE WILL BE
REQUIRED FOR OUR MARINE DISTRICT.

&&

.AVIATION...
UNTIL 18Z/28TH...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS.
PILOTS SHOULD HEED CAUTION DUE TO A STRONG NORTH NORTHEASTERLY
CROSSWIND OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  60  67  63  75 / 00 00 00 00
MARATHON  57  66  63  75 / 00 00 00 00

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL KEYS WATERS
     GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...APA
AVIATION/NOWCASTS/...........EV
DATA ACQUISITION.............MP
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