Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 200320
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
920 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MAKE GOOD PROGRESS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY...ISENTROPIC LIFT
ENDS...WHICH IN TURN...ALLOWS SHOWER ACTIVITY TO TAPER OFF. LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL STILL HANG IN AFTER SHOWER ACTIVITY
ENDS. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND WEATHER GRIDS BASED
ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS.

ALSO...OBSERVATIONS FROM RIGS AND BUOYS SHOW WINDS HAVE INCREASED
TO BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS OVER THE WESTERN OUTER WATERS...AS
GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH SURFACE LOW MOVING JUST BEYOND THE OUTER
WATERS. THEREFORE...WENT AHEAD AND PLACED MARINE ZONES BEYOND 20
NM BETWEEN HIGH ISLAND AND INTRACOASTAL CITY FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE SOMEWHAT DURING THE DAY
ON SATURDAY AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 529 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
-RA WILL END FROM W TO E THIS EVENING...WITH IFR/LIFR CEILINGS TO
PREVAIL THRU THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. CEILINGS EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE TO MVFR BY 15Z SAT. NNE WINDS 10-14 KTS WILL PREVAIL THRU
THE PERIOD.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MID-AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NWRN GULF WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING OUT AHEAD
OF IT JUST BEYOND THE MARINE ZONES...OTHERWISE THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS UNDER THE CONTROL OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A TROF
CROSSING THE CNTL CONUS ATTM WITH A WEAKENING RIDGE BEHIND IT. BIG
STORY LOCALLY REMAINS THE PLENTIFUL LIGHT RAIN NOTED ON REGIONAL
88DS...WITH AN OCCASIONAL BREAK HERE AND THERE.

POPS REMAIN HIGH FOR ALL BUT THE EXTREME NWRN ZONES FOR THIS
EVENING AS 88DS SHOW THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN BEGINNING TO MOVE
INTO THAT AREA ATTM. THE RAIN WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT TODAY AS WE
AWAIT THE TROF TO PUSH FARTHER EWD WHICH WILL FINALLY SHOVE THE
GULF LOW EWD WHILE ALSO USHERING IN DRIER AIR AND CUTTING OFF THE
OVERRUNNING CURRENTLY IN PLACE. ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES ROUNDING
THE TROF WILL ACT TO FURTHER WEAKEN THE RIDGE...BUT THE RESULTANT
ZONAL FLOW AND SFC HIGH BUILDING BACK OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP
MOST OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
PUSHING OFF THE SRN TX COAST IS PROGGED TO HELP RAMP UP ANOTHER
GULF LOW WHICH WILL THEN PUSH ENEWD...POSSIBLY BRINGING A FEW
SHOWERS TO THE EXTREME SERN ZONES ON SUNDAY. TEMPS ARE FORECAST
TO RUN RIGHT ABOUT NORMAL FOR SATURDAY...THEN WARM JUST SLIGHTLY
FOR SUNDAY.

A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE CANADIAN ROCKIES IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN
WHILE DIGGING THROUGH THE TROF INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...LIKELY
CUTTING OFF OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THIS IN TURN WILL LEAD TO
CYCLOGENESIS AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FOR THE CENTER OF THE
NATION INTO MONDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW MOISTURE LOOKS A LITTLE LACKING
FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
LOOKS FINE FOR SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY. MAIN ISSUE WILL BE A RAPID WARM UP TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
MONDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW AND POSSIBLY
SOME COMPRESSIONAL EFFECTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER
FORECAST FOR MID-WEEK. HOWEVER OUR PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SEES A
RETURN TO AN ONSHORE FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS BACK BY CHRISTMAS.

MARINE...
INTRODUCED CAUTION HEADLINES TO THE WRN WATERS FOR TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND LEAVES BEHIND A
SLIGHTLY TIGHTER GRADIENT. WINDS WILL RELAX BEGINNING LATER
SATURDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE GRADUALLY TURNING
MORE ERLY THEN SRLY INTO MONDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE
MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE SRN PLAINS...FOLLOWED BY A
QUICK SHOT OF STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW IN WAKE OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  47  59  44  62  48 /  50  10  10  10   0
KBPT  47  61  46  63  49 /  20  10  10  10   0
KAEX  44  55  41  59  44 /  20  10  10  10  10
KLFT  47  58  46  62  50 /  90  10  10  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

&&

$$






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