Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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000 FXUS64 KLCH 210321 AFDLCH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 921 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009 .DISCUSSION... LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MIDDLE TX COAST WHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE TROF CROSSING CNTL TEXAS. WEAK VORTS ROUNDING THE SHORTWAVE EVIDENT IN CLUSTERS OF RAIN...ONE CURRENTLY MOVING OUT OF S-CNTL LA AND INTO SERN LA WITH ANOTHER LARGER AREA MOVING ALONG THE UPPER TX COAST TOWARD SERN TEXAS. YET ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWING UP OVER CNTL TX NEAR THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROF. SOME CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN THE RAIN SHIELD OVER THE NWRN GULF IN VICINITY OF THE SFC LOW. MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT IS TO REMOVE MENTION OF THUNDER OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS CONDITIONS LOOK TOO STABLE. HOWEVER LEFT MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER OVER THE SERN ZONES AS STORMS OFFSHORE COULD MOVE ASHORE INTO THIS REGION LATER TONIGHT GIVEN CURRENT AND FORECAST TRAJECTORIES. OTHERWISE GOING FORECASTS LOOK GOOD WITH RAIN A GOOD BET OVERNIGHT. TEMPS/WINDS LOOK FINE AS IS AND NO CHANGES PLANNED THERE. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY. 25 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 553 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/ AVIATION... AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WAS MOVING EAST ACRS SRN LA...MAINLY AFFECTING SERN TAF SITES. WILL SEE A BREAK EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW GULF AND ACRS SRN AREAS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS RAINFALL IS THE RESULT OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW NEAR THE TX COAST THAT WILL LIFT NE ACRS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. EXPECT PERIODS OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN BEGINNING AROUND 02Z AT KBPT...WITH RAINFALL PROGRESSING EAST ACRS KLCH AND INTO KLFT AND KARA FROM 03Z-06Z. VFR CIGS AND VISBYS EXPECTED AT KAEX. VFR ALSO EXPECTED AT KLFT AND KARA THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...BECOMING MVFR BETWEEN 10Z-12Z...WHILE GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AT KLCH AND KBPT. IN ADDITION...AS THE SFC LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES TOWARD THE AREA TONIGHT...A TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KTS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MAINLY FOR SRN TAF SITES. 24 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/ DISCUSSION...RATHER CHALLENGING FORECAST AND HENCE RUNNING A LITTLE LATE. WAS HOPING FOR BETTER CONTINUITY BETWEEN MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE EMCWF AND GFS...BUT THIS DID NOT OCCUR. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH WAS OFFERED SOME SUPPORT BY THE LOCAL WRF MODEL AS WELL AS HPC. THUS A MORE PROGRESSIVE AND SHORTER-LIVED EVENT THAN ADVERTISED BY THE EUROPEAN MODEL. RADAR SHOWING LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS OVER SOUTH LOUISIANA ADVANCING EAST. EXPECTING SECONDARY BATCH OF RAINS TO ADVANCE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT SO CARRYING CATEGORICAL POPS SOUTH...LIKELY NORTH. PRIMARILY LOOKING AT OVER-RUNNING RAINS AND ANY LIGHTNING ACTIVITY TO BE BE MINIMAL AT MOST. RAINS AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED ALONG THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR SOUTH...AND LESSER AMOUNTS FURTHER NORTH. RAINS TAPER OFF SATURDAY WITH SYSTEM ADVANCING EAST. REMAINDER OF WEEKEND LOOKING DRY AND COOL WITH A NORTHERLY FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE. NEXT POTENTIAL FROPA AND RAIN-MAKER COMING TUESDAY. MARINE...LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING AND MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF WILL BRING STRENGTHENING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM. WINDS AND RAINS WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM EXITS EAST. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... KLCH 50 63 46 71 49 / 80 40 10 10 10 KBPT 51 65 46 71 51 / 60 30 10 10 10 KAEX 50 62 43 68 43 / 60 40 10 10 10 KLFT 52 60 47 67 48 / 80 50 10 10 10 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA OUT 20 NM... WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM. GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE LAKE...VERMILION BAY. && $$
