Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 161723

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1223 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

.AVIATION...Will see another afternoon of isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms. Moisture profiles remain somewhat
more conducive for development over the eastern portion of the
forecast area. Will be maintaining a TEMPO group for TSRA at AEX,
trimming back to a VCTS for both BPT and LCH. Have dropped
earlier TEMPO groups for ARA and LFT with activity already having
moved across this area but will continue to monitor for
redevelopment. Otherwise looking at VFR to prevail. Sustained
winds will trend around 10 knots from the south. Stronger
thunderstorms will bring the potential for some enhanced gusts.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1033 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017/

Radar shows the pop up showers and a few storms across the
forecast area with daytime heating. Moisture profiles still show
the area under high moisture with precipitable water values over
2.10 inches and Mean RH over 70 percent. With daytime heating,
expect the pop up showers and storms to continue to develop
through the afternoon. With storm motion southwest to northeast,
will keep the higher pops over eastern and northeast sections of
the forecast area. Only made slight modifications to the weather
grids at this time.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 718 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017/

For 12z TAF issuance.

Local 88Ds already show the beginnings of today`s convection
firing up over the coastal waters and the swrn zones thanks to an
apparent shear axis over the nrn Gulf. Expect this activity to
spread farther inland and expand with daytime heating...still
looking at best coverage across the ern terminals. Otherwise VFR
conditions will prevail through the period for the most
part...currently seeing some low clouds across cntl LA which could
persist next couple of hours.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 303 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017/

DISCUSSION...The sub-tropical ridge remains stretched from the
Atlantic into the northern gulf coast this morning which is
keeping the warm south fetch in place. Aloft the region is between
a ridge over Texas and a ridge over Florida. An upper low is over
the central gulf.

With no ridge in place aloft, the area under the northern edge of
an upper low, and a hot and humid air mass in place another day
of showers and storms can be expected. Temperatures will be near
climo values.

Beyond today weak ridging aloft is expected to build over the
area. This will decrease rain chances a bit, however scattered
afternoon storms are still expected through the weekend.
High temperatures may rise a degree or two with the slight
decrease in pops, however remain below heat adv criteria.

MARINE...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected through
the period, however the winds are expected to remain light and
onshore outside of storms.


AEX  91  75  93  75 /  50   0  30  10
LCH  91  79  93  78 /  40  10  20   0
LFT  91  78  93  77 /  50   0  20  10
BPT  91  79  93  77 /  40  10  20   0




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