Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 010838
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
338 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT RADAR INDICATES A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND AN
ADDITIONAL CLUSTER IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA.  THEY ARE GENERALLY LIGHT
AND MOVING FAST ENOUGH THAT FLOODING CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL OVER OUR
AREA.  WV AND IR SATELLITE SHOW AN AREA OF MOISTURE INLAND FROM
CORPUS CRISTI ACROSS COASTAL TEXAS INTO ACADIANA MOVING OFFSHORE.
BEHIND THAT MOISTURE COMPLEX IS AN AREA OF DRY AIR WHICH SHOULD
WEAKEN OUR CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON
TODAY. CURRENT SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY INDICATES THAT THE SHORT WAVE
WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL BE THROUGH BY 21Z. THE
HRRR CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE A BIT TO AGGRESSIVE AND SO I TRENDED
MORE TOWARDS THE WRF ARW IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY. LOOKING AT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS THE AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A WET PATTERN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE WEAK SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO DRAG SLOWLY
OFFSHORE. WITH THE WET PATTERN EXPECTED MINOR STREET FLOODING
COULD BE POSSIBLE BUT FORECASTED QPF TOTALS ARE ONLY IN THE 0.5 TO
1.5 INCH RANGE. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH IN THE THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST BEING A WET ONE.

LOOKING AT THE REST OF THE FORECAST... WITH THE EXPECTED WET
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE TRENDED TEMPS ON THE LOWER SIDE
BECAUSE CLOUD COVER SHOULD RESULT IN FEW EXTENDED PERIODS OF
SIGNIFICANT WARMING. FORECAST HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID 80S
NEAR THE COAST AND LOWER 80S FURTHER INLAND. AEX COULD POTENTIALLY
SEE A RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURE. THE CURRENT MIN FORECAST IS 83
AND THE RECORD LOW MAX IS 81. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE WELL BELOW NORMALS RUNNING
5-8 DEGREES BELOW. A BERMUDA HIGH WILL DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN
WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD PUSH INTO THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON EITHER
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY DEPENDING ON THE ECMWF VS THE GFS
RESPECTIVELY. ONCE THAT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS WE SHOULD
SEE A DRIER AIR MASS MOVE OVER THE REGION WHICH WOULD BRING A LACK
OF SHOWERS AND A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES.

DEAL

&&

.MARINE...
THE WEAK SURFACE LOW IS CONTINUING TO PUSH TOWARDS THE COASTAL
WATERS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS. THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY FORCING
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND THOSE SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. THE FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO
STALL OFF THE COAST WHERE IT WILL BE THE SOURCE OF THE EXPECTED
SHOWERS DURING THE WEEKEND. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
WINDS OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  86  73  87  73  87 /  40  40  40  30  40
KBPT  87  73  87  73  88 /  50  40  30  30  30
KAEX  83  70  85  70  86 /  50  40  40  30  40
KLFT  86  74  86  73  86 /  60  40  50  30  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

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&&

$$






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