Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KLCH 230454
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1154 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
23/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOG ALREADY BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AT KLCH AND KBPT...WITH VISBYS
QUICKLY DROPPING TO LT 1SM AT KBPT AND 3SM AT KLCH. WILL LIKELY
SEE VISBYS FLUCTUATING THROUGH THE NIGHT AT THESE TWO SITES SO
INSERTED TEMPO GROUPS WITH INITIAL PREVAILING GROUPS SHOWING MVFR
FOLLOWED BY PREVAILING LIFR VISBYS AFTER 08Z. MADE NO CHANGES TO
VISBYS AT OTHER TAF SITES EXCEPT TO LOWER AT KARA SLIGHTLY.
OTHERWISE...FOG SHOULD LIFT BY 14Z WED WITH SCT CU DEVELOPING BY
LATE MORNING. EXPECT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WITH SLY WINDS LESS
THAN 10 KT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. 24


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

UPDATE...
FRONT HAS STALLED ALONG THE CSTL COS AND PARISHES THIS EVE AND
LOOKS TO REMAIN MORE OR LESS IN THIS LCTN DRG THE OVERNIGHT HRS.
TMPS FALLING INTO THE LWR 60S MST LCTNS NEAR 60 WELL INLAND W/
SOME FOG TO DVLP DRG THE OVERNIGHT HRS AND CONT THRU SR. A SLOW
WARMING TREND IN THE OVERNIGHT TEMPS HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED AND
THIS TREND WILL CONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...A DRY
WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND. CURRENT ZONES ARE FINE.  19

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
23/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
WEAK FRONT NOW EXTENDS ACRS THE COASTAL PARISHES/COUNTY...BECOMING
NEARLY STATIONARY. CU FIELD BASED AROUND 5000 FT ALONG AND BEHIND
IT IS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING LATE THIS AFTN. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH LIGHT OR NEARLY CALM WINDS. STILL LOOKS
LIKE DECENT RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WILL SET UP OVERNIGHT...WITH
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z. PREVAILING MVFR VISBYS
EXPECTED...LOWERING PERIODICALLY TO IFR AFTER 09Z-10Z MAINLY
AROUND SRN TAF SITES. FOG WILL LIFT WED MORNING...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RESUMING AS SCT CU DEVELOP. THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT BY
MIDDAY WED WITH SLY WINDS 5-8 KT RETURNING ACRS THE REGION.  24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS LOCATED THIS AFTERNOON JUST SOUTH OF I-10
WITHOUT A LOT OF FAN FARE. SOME CU BUILD UP SEEN AHEAD OF IT WITH
MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES ON RADAR. ALSO...JUST SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
SEEN BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS NEAR THE COAST. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
AROUND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT ON WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING
IN FROM THE NORTHEAST...THAT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE
DAY ALLOWING FOR RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND
ACROSS THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN TO THE NORTH WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STALLING OFF TO
THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ALSO.

FOR THE IMMEDIATE FORECAST AREA...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL FOR
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DEVELOP
OVER THE PLAINS AND MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. HOWEVER...RAIN CHANCES LOOK LIMITED AT BEST...AS ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MAINLY BENIGN AND MID LEVELS LOOK TO STAY
RELATIVELY DRY.

NEXT SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO TAKE PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK
FROM MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. EXTENDED GUIDANCE SHOWING A RATHER
POTENT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH DURING THAT TIME FRAME. ALTHOUGH
BEING THAT FAR OUT DETAILS STILL NEED TO BE DEFINED...BUT IT COULD
BE RATHER CHILLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

RUA

MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT WITH
MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND LOW SEAS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL WASH-OUT ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SURFACE RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT
PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST AND BUILDING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
BRING ABOUT A GRADUAL RETURN TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DURING THE DAY. A
LIGHT TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND A SERIES OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  61  82  63  81 /  10  10  10  10
KBPT  63  80  64  80 /  10  10  10  10
KAEX  59  82  61  82 /  10  10  10  10
KLFT  62  82  64  81 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.