Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 202329

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
629 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017


Local radar shows areas of light to moderate rain continuing to
move inland from the Gulf across SE Texas and far SW Louisiana
this evening. Vicinity showers and light rain will continue to be
possible at KLCH and KBPT through midnight before this activity
diminishes. The moisture moving in from the Gulf should result in
MVFR ceilings developing later tonight and continuing into the
early morning hours. Winds are expected to remain light from the
east eventually becoming variable inland during the overnight


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 335 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017/

Wx map shows easterly flow over the region, gradually diminishing
over the coastal waters from earlier this morning. Visible satellite
and radar continues to show persistent showers and thunderstorms
over the western coastal waters offshore from Cameron, LA to High
Island, TX. This activity continues to stream northward and weaken
by the time moving inland across SE TX/SW LA this afternoon
providing only remnant light rain.

The precipitation is caused by a weak but slow moving mid/upper
level shortwave off the TX/LA coast, which should move slowly
northward and dissipate by Saturday. A much larger longwave
mid/upper level trough moving eastward over the Western U.S. will
affect our region by Sunday with healthy chances of showers and
thunderstorms. This is expected to bring around an inch of
rainfall with locally higher amounts across the region. With very
little precipitation the last 6 weeks since the end of Harvey, the
area has become quite dry, so this should be somewhat beneficial
to the region. Not expecting much to any severe weather at this
time, with the Storm Prediction Center only highlighting our
region under a general thunderstorm outlook.

Following the passage of the upper level trough, a weak cold
front is expected for Sunday night, followed by a much stronger
cold front for Monday night into Tuesday morning. This will bring
back the much cooler temperatures, expecting widespread 40s by
Wednesday morning. A warming trend will commence for Thursday,
followed by another cold front bringing another round of showers
and thunderstorms for next Friday.


Showers and thunderstorms will continue to move through the southeast
Texas coastal waters through this afternoon as they wrap around
the periphery of a high pressure area. This high will shift off to
the northeast today as a low moves across the central plains.
This will keep a moderate south to southeast flow in place into
the weekend. A cold front will sweep across the area Sunday with
high pressure building in for early next week.


AEX  67  85  70  79 /  20  60  40  90
LCH  71  85  73  82 /  30  40  30  90
LFT  70  85  72  82 /  20  60  30  90
BPT  72  84  73  82 /  50  40  30  90




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