630
FXUS64 KLCH 031129
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
629 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Maximum Heat Indices today and Friday will top out in the 100 to
  105F range. Heat advisories may be needed over the Holiday
  weekend.

- The upper ridge breaks down starting today and into the weekend.
  Low end afternoon thunderstorm chances return to cenLA and the
  Atchafalaya Basin today.

- No tropical impacts are expected to the CWA over the next 7
  days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 1254 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Wednesday appears to have been the final day of mostly-clear, dry
weather. Aloft, the ridge overhead begins to break down today
(Thursday) into Friday. Even with dust still present overtop the
region, with falling heights and moisture pooling over the region,
the door opens once again to scattered showers and thunderstorms in
the short term period.

Greatest chances today will be from central Louisiana into east
Louisiana, with a higher concentration likely along the Atchafalaya
Basin (best moisture) in the afternoon and early evening. Tomorrow,
those chances expand more towards the southwest portion of the
state. Today and tomorrow, PoPs will be limited to generally less
than 20 percent for the majority of the forecast area as high
pressure and dust can still be a limiting factor. Again, the
Atchafalaya Basin, where best moisture pooling is present, has the
highest chance for daytime convection. PoPs in this area are in the
~30% range today, ~40% tomorrow. Another bubble of high pressure
attempts to move over the region Saturday.
Considering its weak nature, a return to normal seabreeze
showers/isolated storms are possible along coastal areas and the I-
10 corridor.

Temps today will be much like yesterday with most areas seeing highs
in the mid to upper 90s. With the increase in rain chances and
expected cloud cover Friday, highs should be held in the lower to
middle 90s. Highs Saturday will rebound into the mid 90s with the
weak high pressure and increase of sunshine.

Dry air today, cloud cover Friday and mixing/subsidence Saturday
will hold maximum Heat Indices in the 100 to 105F range each of
these days. This range is below the needed 108F or higher threshold
for a Heat Advisory on any given day. However, considering the
Holiday weekend and long period of very hot conditions, Heat
Advisory criteria may be adjusted to below 108F in order to best
communicate heat risk for those vulnerable populations who are out
and about.

11/Calhoun

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1254 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Upper level weakness meandering over the region Sunday into the
start of next work week will allow for us to see a return to the
Summertime Special: hot, humid and daily popup showers/storms /
seabreeze activity.

Temperatures appear to hold in check in the low to mid 90s, close to
climo normals, for Sunday thru Wednesday. Later in the period, high
pressure attempts to ridge over the western Gulf/southeast Texas.
This shutoff of cloud cover and waning rain chances would result in
highs nudging back into the mid to upper 90s.

Heat indices appear to remain in the 100 to 105F range through at
least Sunday or Monday. However, as high pressure attempts to build
in, we could see a gradual increase in maximum HIs to widespread
105F and above.

11/Calhoun

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the taf period. BKN high
clouds will continue to stream across the region through much of
the day. Upper level ridging in place across the western gulf will
keep thunderstorm chances limited, but a few storms will be
possible around the Atchafalaya basin potentially impacting LFT
and ARA this afternoon. Any storms that develop will dissipate by
around 00Z. Away from storms, light west to west southwest winds
will prevail through the day becoming variable overnight.

Jones

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1254 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

High pressure area situated over the northern Gulf, while weak and
meandering at times, will result in light, variable winds and low
seas through the start of next week. Upper level weakness then moves
overhead in line with expansive surface high situated over the
eastern seaboard. This will bring about consistent onshore flow
beginning in the midweek.

Weak boundary sitting along the north central Gulf, combined with
waning upper high, will allow scattered nocturnal convection to
return this morning and following mornings. Upper high relaxes from
west to east, with rain chances to follow this trend today into the
weekend. Although surface high will meander around the northern Gulf
Sunday into the work week, expect a return of scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms across the waters beneath weakness
aloft.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1254 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

The ongoing overly hot, dry and dusty airmass will begin waning
today. Upper high pressure ridge will begin retrograding to the west
today and Friday before dissipating altogether over the weekend. A
weak surface ridge moves over the area Saturday. Low-end afternoon
rain and thunderstorm chances return today and Friday in response
to relaxing upper ridge. Most areas have a less than 20 percent
chance for showers or storms with the greatest chances existing in
the Atchafalaya Basin where best moisture overlaps with weakness
overhead.

Daytime minimum RH values in the 40 to 55 percent range can be
expected each day with generally very light flow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  96  73  92  73 /  20  20  20  10
LCH  94  77  92  75 /  10  10  20  10
LFT  94  76  91  75 /  30  10  40  10
BPT  94  75  91  75 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...66