Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 281737

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1237 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

For the 28/18Z TAF Issuance.


Low clouds have mixed out and all TAF sites are currently VFR and
these conditions will prevail through the afternoon with just some
scattered daytime heating stratocu clouds. With cooling during the
evening hours clouds will again form. However, boundary layer
winds are expected to be in the 15 to 20 knot range as low
pressure moves into the Southern Plains, and this should keep
enough mixing going that MVFR/IFR ceilings from low stratus is
favored rather than visibility restriction from fog. Ceilings will
lift during the early morning hours with most sites at VFR
conditions after 29/15Z. South winds will be rather breezy with
gradient from low pressure system on Wednesday morning. However, shower
and thunderstorm activity on Wednesday is not expected until later
in the day and after TAF package forecast period.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 918 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017/

Forecast is in good shape this morning and no changes were made.

Winds will increase throughout the day as the low that is expected
to bring showers and thunderstorms tomorrow deepens and pushes
east out of western Texas. Otherwise, partly cloudy skies and warm
temperatures will prevail today.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 616 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017/

AVIATION...MVFR to IFR conditions are ongoing this morning,
however ceilings and vis will improve through the morning. VFR
conditions are expected through the afternoon, however low
ceilings are expected again tonight. South to southeast winds will
be gusty at times today.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 511 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017/

Generally benign weather on tap for today as ridging between a
departing shortwave trof over the OH river valley and a digging
upstream trof west of the Four Corners slides overhead. Expect a
warm and humid afternoon underneath a fair amount of cloud cover,
with south winds increasing and becoming a bit breezy over
coastal SE TX/SW LA. Another warm and muggy night tonight with
winds remaining elevated, especially along the coast and over the
WRN zones as a 30-40KT LLJ begins to overspread the area with the
approach of the upstream trof.

WED is expected to start out relatively quietly owing to
considerable CINH depicted in area FCST soundings. This is
expected to begin changing by afternoon, however, as more
favorable lapse rates begin to overspread the area along with
falling heights and a split jet structure as the upper trof enters
the TX panhandle. TSTMS are forecast to develop/ over E TX by
late afternoon, then subsequently spread/develop E of the Sabine
river during the evening. Progged kinematic/thermodynamic
parameters support a severe weather risk, with all modes possible.
TSTMS will continue to slowly spread/develop east through the
overnight hours and into THU morning, with activity expected to
push east of the area during the afternoon with the passage of a
weak CDFNT. Have continued with a mention of SVR TSTMS in the
forecast for the WED afternoon through THU afternoon period.

Dry weather is expected in the wake of the frontal passage FRI and
SAT, with rain chances returning SAT night with the approach of
another upper level trof. Global models continue to be divergent
with their handling of this feature, though at this time a slower
and less progressive solution is favored, keeping good rain
chances in the forecast Sunday and Monday.


Light to modest south winds are forecast to begin strengthening
today as a low pressure system emerges east of the Rockies. Have
headlined SCEC for the Gulf waters within 20 NM west of Cameron
and all of the Gulf waters beyond 20 NM for late this afternoon,
then switched to a SCY for these areas this evening. SCEC for the
remaining Gulf waters east of Cameron this evening.  Brisk south
winds will continue WED as this feature tracks eastward across the
Plains, subsequently pulling a frontal boundary through the
coastal waters THU afternoon/evening. Additional hazard
headlines/products may be needed for WED. A brief period of
offshore flow will follow the frontal passage, with south winds
returning by FRI.



AEX  83  66  81  68 /  10  10  30  80
LCH  81  67  81  69 /  10  10  40  80
LFT  84  70  84  72 /  10  10  20  60
BPT  83  71  81  68 /  10  10  70  70


GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT
     Wednesday for GMZ450-470-472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 PM
     CDT this evening for GMZ450-470-472-475.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION from 7 PM CDT this evening through
     Wednesday morning for GMZ452-455.



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