Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 181445
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
945 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS OVER THE REGION.
WITH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS AREA...SHRA/TSRA
CONTINUES OVER C LA THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AS
THE TROF AXIS MOVES EAST TODAY. THUS...CONTINUED 20-30% OF SHRA/TSRA
THIS MORNING...MAINLY 20% FOR C AND SC LA THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER
UPDATES FOR MORNING TRENDS IN ALL WX FIELDS...BUT OTHERWISE...ONGOING
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON ON TRACK.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDS THAT HAD MOVED IN FROM THE
EAST RETREATING AS MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
VFR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT KBPT AND KLCH...WITH MVFR IMPROVING
TO VFR AT THE REMAINING TERMINALS. LIGHT NORTH WINDS TO CONTINUE.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 501 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A STRATOCU DECK SPREADING WEST
ACRS THE CNTL/SRN LA ON THE BACKSIDE OF AN AREA OF LOW PRES LOCATED
OFF THE SE LA COAST WHILE MIDLVL CLOUDS OVER ERN TX ARE MOVING
EAST IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF. THIS HAS LEAD TO
VRBL SKY CONDITIONS ACRS ALL BUT THE SERN PORTION OF THE CWA WHERE
SKIES HAVE BEEN OVC FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE PERSISTENT
CLOUDS ACRS THE ACADIANA REGION HAVE HELD TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S
WHILE ELSEWHERE TEMPS WERE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S UNDER
OCCASIONALLY CLR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS ABUNDANT CONVECTION FM SE LA EAST TO
THE FLA PANHANDLE ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPULSE AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROF AND THE NRN GULF LOW. AN ADDITIONAL BAND OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLTD STORMS EXTENDS FM NW LA INTO E CNTL TX WHERE THE MAIN TROF
AXIS WAS INTERACTING WITH DECAYING SFC BOUNDARY.

DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER TROF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY...TRANSITIONING
INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE SE STATES. DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL
BEGIN TO FILTER INTO WRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS UPSTREAM RIDGING
DEVELOPS. HOWEVER DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW THERE
COULD STILL BE A FEW SMALL SHOWERS OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-49 CORRIDOR. AT THE SFC...THE GULF
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE...WITH WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGING SOUTH
INTO THE AREA IN ITS WAKE. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NLY HELPING TO
USHER DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA...BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
EXPECTED. IN FACT...HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REBOUND INTO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S THIS AFTN AS CLOUDS DECREASE.

A WEAK NE TO SW ORIENTED SFC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING A LT AND MOSTLY VRBL WIND FIELD IN
PLACE...WHILE A RIDGE ALOFT TRANSITS THE REGION. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR CLIMO TEMPS RESULTING IN
MILD MORNINGS AND WARM AFTNS. IN ADDITION...EASTER SUNDAY STILL
LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AS ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
WILL STAY WELL WEST OF THE AREA.

THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY...BUT BEST ENERGY
WILL STAY NORTH OF THE REGION. AS THIS IMPULSE SLIDES SE MONDAY NT
INTO TUES...IT WILL USHER A WEAK FRONT INTO THE AREA BUT PRECIP
CHANCES WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
STALL OVER THE AREA TUES...THEN GRADUALLY WASH OUT BY WED AS HIGH
PRES BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND TOWARD ABV NORMAL VALUES BY MIDWEEK WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND
HIGHS IN THE 80S.

MARINE...
LT TO MDT NLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...BECOMING
LT/VRBL SAT AS A HIGH PRES RIDGE MIGRATES OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRES
WILL PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH LT WINDS AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  77  57  78  58  80 /  10  10  10  10  10
KBPT  77  60  78  60  79 /  10  10  10  10  10
KAEX  75  55  79  57  80 /  30  10  10  10  10
KLFT  76  58  79  59  81 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$







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