Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 020330
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1030 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...SEEING SOMEWHAT OF A REPRIEVE FROM RAINFALL WITH
JUST A FEW SHOWERS CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS THE INLAND AREA. WITH
THAT SAID...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS NOW BEEN CANCELLED. THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE. FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS
RETROGRADED SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING. WILL PLACE FEATURE FROM JUST
EAST OF SHREVEPORT TO THE LUFKIN AREA THEN FURTHER SOUTHWEST.
RADAR SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALIGNED ALONG
BOUNDARY. EXTENSIVE OUTFLOW GENERATED FROM EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION IS NOW WELL INTO THE GULF WATERS WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY.

EVENING LCH SOUNDING COMING IN AT A HEALTHY PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUE OF 1.87 INCHES. WITH HEFTY TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINING IN
PLACE AND EXTENT OF RAINS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA EARLIER...LEAVING
FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING WAS A FAIRLY SIMPLE CALL. MODELS HAVE
BEEN SOMEWHAT DIVERGENT WITH SOLUTIONS OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS AND
CONFIDENCE OF HOW AND WHERE THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL IS
REMAINS IN QUESTION. LATEST HRRR SUGGESTING AFOREMENTIONED
RETROGRADING OF INLAND BOUNDARY WILL CEASE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...WITH BOUNDARY THEN BEGINNING ITS SOUTHEAST TREK INTO AND
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BELIEVE THIS WILL BE MAIN FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...
ROUGH DAY AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO ACROSS THE
I-10 CORRIDOR SOUTH INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. FLOODING RAINS
CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP AND TRAIN ACROSS THE SAME AREA WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ESTIMATED BETWEEN 4 AND 11 INCHES SINCE YESTERDAY. A
BOUNDARY WAS NOTED IN THE COASTAL WATERS WITH WARM GULF MOISTURE
OVERRIDING THE BOUNDARY AND DROPPING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WERE MUTED BY THE CLOUDS AND RAIN...THEREFORE...UNDER
THE RAINSHIELD TEMPERATURES WERE NEAR 70 I-10 AND SOUTH...WHILE
UP TO THE NORTH WHERE RAIN WAS ABSENT...TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

OVERNIGHT EXPECT ADDITIONAL RAINS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FIXED BOUNDARY ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS. IN ADDITION..A COOL
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
TRIGGERING ADDITIONAL FLOODING RAINS IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
AREA. THE AREA COULD STILL RECEIVE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN WITH
HIGHER LOCALIZED AMOUNTS. AVOID DRIVING IN THE AREA WHERE HEAVY
RAINS ARE CAUSING DANGEROUS FLOODING PROBLEMS. TURN AROUND DON`T
DROWN IF YOU COME UPON AN AREA OF WATER ON THE ROAD OF UNKNOWN
DEPTH.

THE FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT TO END THE
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. SCATTERED RAINS SHOULD END BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS
ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

MARINE...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION. OTHERWISE...A COOL FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS TRIGGERING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH OFFSHORE WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  68  77  59  75 /  60  70  30  10
LCH  69  80  62  77 /  70  70  40  20
LFT  71  81  65  78 /  60  70  50  30
BPT  69  80  61  78 /  70  70  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR LAZ027>033-041>045-
     052>055-073-074.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR LAZ041-052>054-
     073-074.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR TXZ215-216.

GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 1 AM CDT MONDAY FOR GMZ435-
     450-452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...23


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