Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KLCH 120245
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
845 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TARGET AND NO CHANGES
ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 541 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 12/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
WILL START THE TAF PACKAGE OFF WITH VFR CONDITIONS AS MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES PREVAIL. SOUTHERLY WINDS A BIT ON THE BREEZY SIDE...AND HOW
MUCH THESE WINDS STAY UP TONIGHT WILL BE PART OF THE ANSWER TO IF
AND HOW MUCH FOG DEVELOPS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE BROUGHT
BACK SOME SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE TAF SITES ALONG THE
I-10 CORRIDOR...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S. LESS MOISTURE
FURTHER NORTH WITH KAEX STILL IN THE MID 40S. NEAR SHORE WATER
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...SO DEW POINTS
HAVE NOT QUITE REACHED THE THRESHOLD TO GET THE SEA FOG MACHINE
GOING...AND GUIDANCE KEEPS DEW POINTS RIGHT NEAR THAT THRESHOLD
THROUGH THE NIGHT. GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
THROUGH THE EVENING AROUND 15 KNOTS OR GREATER...UNTIL AFTER
12/09Z WHEN GRADIENT SHOWS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS CLOSER TO 10
KNOTS.

THEREFORE...WINDS MAY CAUSE ENOUGH MIXING THROUGH THE EVENING TO
KEEP FOG FROM FORMING...THEN ONLY PATCHY FOG FORMING AROUND
12/06Z. BETTER CHANCE FOR FOG WILL COME CLOSER TO SUNRISE...SO
WILL HAVE TEMPO GROUPS FOR KBPT/KLCH/KLFT/KARA AFTER 12/10Z FOR
IFR CONDITIONS. ANY FOG THAT FORMS WILL MIX OUT AFTER
12/15Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN PREVAILING FOR THE REMAINDER OF
FRIDAY.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CNTL
GULF OF MEXICO PROVIDING A WRLY/SWRLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...WHILE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NOTED JUST NORTH
OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TROFFING ALONG THE
ERN SEA BOARD WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NWRLY
FLOW OVER THE CNTL CONUS...WHILE RIDGING LINGERS OVER THE WRN
CONUS. JUST A LITTLE CIRRUS IS NOTED ACCOMPANYING THE FIRST
DISTURBANCE AS IT CROSSES THE ARKLATEX...OTHERWISE THE DEEP DRY
AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION IS MAINTAINING CLEAR SKIES.
REGIONAL 88DS ARE PPINE.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES WITH OUR
CURRENT DRY WEATHER PATTERN STILL EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND. RISING DEWPOINTS WILL LEND TO THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT
FOG OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.
HOWEVER FLY IN THE OINTMENT LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WIND
SPEEDS OVERNIGHT WHICH COULD KEEP US IN MORE OF A STRATUS SET UP.

THE COOL FRONT TO OUR NORTH IS PROGGED TO DRIFT SWD TOWARD THE
AREA TONIGHT...GRADUALLY OOZING THROUGH AND INTO THE COASTAL
WATERS ON FRIDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW JUST ENOUGH WRLY
COMPONENT TO THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO KEEP
MOISTURE FROM INCREASING SUFFICIENTLY SO STILL LOOKING AT A DRY
FROPA TOMORROW. TEMPS WILL COOL BEHIND THE FRONT AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SWD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. AS WE MOVE INTO THE
WEEKEND THE HIGH WILL MOVE EWD ALLOWING A LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW TO
SET UP OVER THE WRN GULF STATES.

SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALOFT INTERACTS WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION. A STRONG SHORTWAVE FURTHER UPSTREAM IS PROGGED TO HELP
SPIN UP A SFC LOW OVER THE PANHANDLE REGION...WHICH IN TURN WILL
PULL A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING THROUGH THE COLUMN
BEFORE THESE FEATURES MOVE THROUGH...THUS RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY. SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A LITTLE BETTER INSTABILITY SO
ISOLATED THUNDER HAS BEEN INCLUDED ATTM. PRECIP WILL END FROM W-E
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR QUICKLY FILTERS IN
BEHIND THE FRONT/SHORTWAVE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO SCOOT EWD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE NWRLY FLOW
LINGERS ALOFT. THUS DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL COOL ONCE AGAIN FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH
REMAINING CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS...BEFORE WARMING FOR THURSDAY
AS SRLY FLOW SETS UP BEHIND THE HIGH.

MARINE...
COULD SEE SOME CAUTION CRITERIA WINDS BEHIND EACH OF OUR FROPA
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...OTHERWISE NO FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED ON THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  48  72  40  55 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  53  73  46  61 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  55  73  47  61 /   0   0  10   0
BPT  54  75  48  64 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...05


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.