Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 221711
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1111 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Forecast is generally on target this morning, with the primary
adjustment being the inclusion of a small PoP over the northern
parts of the area as some light wrap-around rain moves quickly
east across interior East TX and Central LA. Cloud cover was also
increased with visible imagery showing a patch of mid level
clouds moving from NW to SE across the area. Expect some clearing
to occur in the wake of these clouds before more significant cloud
cover intrudes from the NW for a time later this afternoon into
the evening. Winds have increased rapidly over the past couple of
hours in line with the previous forecast, and are now at or above
advisory criteria at most locations. Incoming model data suggests
the advisory will likely warrant extending into the evening hours,
with perhaps some of the strongest winds occurring late afternoon
into early evening.

The low water advisory for Sabine and Calcasieu Lakes was
cancelled earlier this morning, but based on tidal projections,
will be re-issued with the afternoon package for tonight into
Monday.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 534 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...
12Z TAFS

AVIATION...
A cold front has completed its transit across the area this
morning leaving westerly to northwesterly winds and residual light
showers in its wake. A CIG clearing line is denoted just west of
BPT as of this writing and should progress eastward over the next
couple of hours clearing all sites from west to east.

VFR conditions will prevail through the period once clouds clear
this morning, but SCT to BKN clouds wrapping around the departing
low associated with the cold front will move into the area this
evening at about 050kft.

As the low exits to the northeast, the pressure gradient will
tighten across the area this morning with sustained winds of 15-25
knots forecast gusting to 35 knots. These winds will remain on
the strong side through the night before weakening early Monday.

Jones

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 453 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...
A cold front was sweeping through the county warning area this
morning having made it as far south as New Iberia in south central
Louisiana. This cold front will exit our area by sunrise. Along
the leading edge...winds were gusting to 35 mph out of the west to
northwest direction. Once the front had passed any given location
.winds were becoming light and variable a short time later.

The WFO Lake Charles radar was showing widespread light rain or
sprinkles covering much of Louisiana...with a few sprinkles of
rain across southeast Texas.

Temperatures were a few degrees cooler than yesterday morning with
dewpoints noticeably lower where the front had passed.
Temperatures were in the mid to upper 50s behind the front to near
70 degrees ahead of it.

Today...looking for the upper level intense low pressure system to
move across Texas...Oklahoma...Arkansas...Louisiana this morning
to Mississippi by this evening. Drier air was beginning to work
into the area and therefore light rain should end this morning
from west to east. The rain was mostly over for southeast Texas
and southwest Louisiana already. Carried highest pops for extreme
east and northeast county warning area.

Clearing skies was noted on Satellite just west of Houston. Expect
to see mostly sunny skies by noon most locations...however...could
see some wrap around clouds sneak into the northern areas this
afternoon as the upper level cold pool passes just to the north of
our county warning area. Winds are expected to pick up to wind
advisory criteria...therefore...have expanded the wind advisory to
all of the land areas. Winds may be slow to peak up in the
northern areas but it was prudent to mesh with our sister WFO
offices to our north and west. Winds should diminish early evening
over inland areas.

Cooler temperatures should prevail today through Tuesday with
variable fair weather clouds. Southerly flow returns to the area
late monday night into Tuesday. As the next frontal boundary
approaches the area. Rain chances will remain on the lower side
tuesday night into wednesday as the reinforcing cold front sweeps
into the area on Wednesday with the rest of the week looking dry
and cooling down once again.

By the end of the 7 day forecast...will likely see another frontal
boundary move in by next Saturday with low rain chances.
Overall...we see cooler temperatures and less potent weather
through the forecast period ending next Saturday.

MARINE...
Gale Warning and Small Craft Advisory have been posted for the
marine waters and latter SCA for the lakes and bays as the strong
low pressure system moves across the area today. Wind conditions
should improve over the marine waters on Monday as the winds begin
to taper off especially in the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  65  44  64  45 /  20   0   0   0
LCH  68  47  67  51 /  10   0   0   0
LFT  69  49  65  49 /  10   0   0   0
BPT  70  47  68  55 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for LAZ027>033-041>045-
     052>055-073-074.

TX...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ180-201-215-216-
     259>262.

GM...Gale Warning until 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ450-452-455-470-472-
     475.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ430-432-
     435.

&&

$$


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