Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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072
FXUS64 KLCH 290015
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
715 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Afternoon SHRA/TSRA over land produced a large outflow boundary
that moved southwest to the coastal waters. This ignited numerous
TSRA once hitting the water, with ongoing special marine warnings
for high winds. Best chance of SHRA/TSRA will continue over SE
TX and adjacent coastal waters off the LA/SE TX coasts this
evening. After midnight into the remainder of Wed morning, keeping
the chances higher, around 50-60% from I-10 southward into the
coastal waters as the weak low pressure trof drifts further
southward towards the coastal parishes and counties.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 636 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/

AVIATION...Light rain, showers, and thunderstorms will be around
the area through the period. While mostly VFR conditions are
expected, occasionally lowers vis and ceilings will occur precip.
Gusty winds will also be possible, however winds will generally be
10 kts or less.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 405 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Radar looked more active across the area this afternoon
as low pressure aloft finally has gotten a foothold.
Temperatures actually looked good where the rain developed
early this afternoon. However...where the rain did not fall...
it was an ugly picture as highs zoomed up into the mid 90s across
Lake Charles and Beaumont areas. Very uncomfortable environment
if your in these two areas. Heat indices were still around 103 to
105 across southwest Louisiana...however...Beaumont hit 108 around
3 pm. Relief is on the way though as rains are coming soon.

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop across
southeast Texas and Southwest Louisiana through the remainder of
the afternoon and evening. Where it does rain...temperatures will
cool down into the mid 70s fairly quickly. Rain chances will stick
around through the evening as the airmass remains unstable and
development continues across our northern areas and move south
with time.

An upper level trough of low pressure will hang around another day
with the best chance of rain remaining across the southern half of
the area. The southern end of the upper low will lift northeast
allow for high pressure to filter back in beginning Thursday and
continuing into the weekend. Drier conditions will settle back in
during the latter half of the week right on into early next week.
Unfortunately...summer baking temperatures will remain with us
after Wednesday. With my AC still not working well at home...looks
like I will walk into a hot house again this afternoon. So...I`m
living the heat nightmare as many of us in this area can attest
to as the A/C units begin misfiring under this heat.

All I have to say is...we better get some relief from this heat
this afternoon into tomorrow for southwest Louisiana and lower
southeast Texas or we sure are going to be disappointed. We have a
lot of folks with AC`s out...I`m hoping mother nature can give
some relief to us suffering.

MARINE...
High pressure will remain to the west of the Gulf of Mexico
allowing weak low pressure to temporarily hold through
wednesday. This weather setup will allow for an increase in
showers and thunderstorms during this time frame. High pressure
will fill back in starting Thursday and continue through the
weekend with a return to normal summertime conditions over the
coastal waters. Winds and seas will be high in and around
thunderstorm activity.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  72  92  71  94 /  30  30  10  20
LCH  74  90  74  93 /  60  50  20  20
LFT  74  90  73  93 /  50  50  20  20
BPT  74  91  74  93 /  60  50  20  20

&&

.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...08



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