000
FXUS64 KLCH 220437
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1137 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Dry air and to a lesser extent environmental wind shear continue
to negatively affect the structure and organization of Cindy, with
the circulation center relatively void of convection. Experimental
GOES-R WV imagery depicts a pronounced dry slot that arcs
cyclonically from near the TX/MX border across the NW Gulf and
into SE LA, which in addition to disrupting TS Cindy, is also
aiding in reducing more widespread PCPN. Nonetheless, what
convection is associated with the storm still has the potential to
produce flooding rains, as evidenced by the band that spread
through the Lake Charles area earlier this evening and the ongoing
rains over SE TX.

The forecast track remains relatively unchanged from 24 hrs ago,
with the storm forecast to reach the coast near Johnson Bayou
sometime early THU morning, then continue N just E of the Sabine
River through the day on THU. Earlier daytime visible satellite
imagery revealed several smaller scale vortices rotating about
the mean circulation, with one of these features interacting with
and enhancing existing convection near Sabine pass earlier this
evening, and also resulting in gusts near 40KT reaching the SFC.

Tide levels along the coast overnight tonight at the time of
astronomical high tide are expected to result in coastal
inundation of 1 to 2 FT above ground level, with tide readings
expected to range from 4 to 5 FT MLLW. Above normal tides are
likely to continue for another 24 to 36 hours as prevailing south
winds persist well after the storm moves inland, with minor
coastal flooding at the time of high tide.

Existing hazard grids appear to have the situation well covered,
so saw no need to make changes at this time.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 648 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017/

AVIATION...NO major changes to TAFS. Tropical Storm Cindy now
over the northwest gulf is forecast to track northwest reaching
the vicinity of Sabine Pass late tonight and then track north
while weakening. Strong and gusty northeast flow ongoing will come
around to the east then south with passage of the system.
MVFR/IFR ceilings with occasional showers can be expected
overnight and well into Thursday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 506 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms from Tropical Storm Cindy continue to
sweep across coastal southeast Texas and southern Louisiana this
afternoon. Bands of rains will move across the northwest gulf
region through the overnight hours. Rains will be heavy at times
with the winds increasing inside of storms. Seas along the coast
are running about two to three feet above normal and this will
continua through landfall. Cindy is expected to make during the
overnight hours on Thursday morning timeframe and then move
inland. Looking at rainfall of three to five inches with isolated
amounts higher with stronger storms. The Tropical Storm Warning
for inland southeast Texas and southern Louisiana has been
replaced with A Wind Advisory as Cindy has weaken a little
through the day.

Longterm Forecast... Sunday through Wednesday...weak troughing aloft
will move off to the east as high pressure builds in from Texas. At
the surface...a cool front will stall near the coast by Monday
morning and return as a warm front by the end of the seven day
forecast period ending Wednesday. Rain chances will remain elevated
Sunday through Tuesday with less activity expected by Wednesday as
high pressure stabilizes the atmosphere. Temperatures will remain
below normal due to clouds and rain cooled air.

MARINE...
Tropical Storm Cindy will continue to progress northwestward
towards the Texas and Louisiana coasts tonight. Tropical storm
force winds will continue over the coastal waters through the
overnight hours and into Thursday. Likewise, seas will remain
elevated and very rough. All marine interests should continue to
closely monitor this system.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  74  84  76  86 /  90  80  70  60
LCH  77  85  79  88 / 100  80  50  60
LFT  76  84  78  87 /  90  80  50  60
BPT  74  84  78  88 / 100  70  50  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday evening for LAZ027>033-
     041>045-052>055-073-074.

     Tropical Storm Warning for LAZ041>045-052>055-073-074.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for LAZ027>033.

TX...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday evening for TXZ180-201-215-
     216-259>262.

     Tropical Storm Warning for TXZ201-215-216-261-262.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ180-259-260.

GM...Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-
     475.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Thursday to 7 AM CDT Friday for
     GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475.

&&

$$