Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
FXUS64 KLCH 201906
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
206 PM CDT THU OCT 20 2016
For the 10/20/16 1800 UTC TAF package.
Primary challenge surrounds timing of CDFNT, and associated
convection and wind shift along with a period of lower CIGS.
Consensus of latest guidance was used to insert TEMPO groups
conveying the best estimate of convective timing, with the wind
shift and period of lowered CIGS likely occurring during the same
temporal window. While CIGS no lower than MVFR are currently
forecast, upstream OBS suggest a period of IFR is also possible.
It is expected that all sites will become prevailing VFR by mid to
late evening as clouds clear out, with the overnight and FRI
morning forecast primarily one of gusty N/NW winds.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1017 AM CDT THU OCT 20 2016/
DISCUSSION...NE-SW oriented cold front is currently moving across
the Shreveport area and will be sweeping across our forecast area
this afternoon and early evening. Limited convection ongoing at
this time but do expect some increase as the day progresses.
Forecast looks reasonable and see no need for a morning update.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 712 AM CDT THU OCT 20 2016/
For 12z TAF issuance.
Main issues this go around look to be rainfall potential, then post-
frontal ceilings and winds. First round of convection has already
impacted KBPT and appears to be waning at the moment...although
additional convection is expected to develop over the next few
hours ahead of the advancing cold front. Fropa is slated between
19Z and 23Z, at which time forecast time-height sections indicate
lower ceilings likely in the MVFR neighborhood. CAA is progged to
initiate a couple of hours behind the front with nrly winds
picking up with it...speeds are expected to run AOA 10 knots for
much of the evening/overnight periods.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 434 AM CDT THU OCT 20 2016/
Patchy light fog had developed across interior southeast Texas
and central and southwest Louisiana this morning. Temperatures
were holding steady in the low to mid 70s. A few showers had
developed across the northwest Gulf of Mexico...Lower southeast
Texas and southwest Louisiana. Thick clouds continued across the
majority of the area.
An upper level low across the central United States will continue
to dig southeastward over the next 36 hours allowing a strong cold
front...which was located from Paris Texas to Dallas/Fort
worth...to near Glen Rose Texas...to move southeastward through
the day. The cold front should reach interior southeast Texas this
afternoon and swiftly move across the rest of Texas and Louisiana
later this afternoon into the early evening.
Showers will likely continue to develop this morning across the
northwest Gulf of Mexico and inland areas of southeast Texas and
southwest Louisiana where total precipitable water had climbed to
1.5 to 2 inches. More activity is expected to develop along the
front as it moves across the area.
Northerly winds will initially lag a little in strength but a
secondary surge of colder air will bring up the northerly flow a
little bit more tonight. Currently...forecast winds remain below
wind advisory criteria for today so no need to issue any inland
wind advisories at this time.
Rains will end a short time after frontal passage with high
pressure building into the region tonight through the weekend.
Southerly flow does return sometime late Saturday into Sunday but
the upper level ridge will hold over the area through the weekend.
Weak upper level high pressure next week will continue to keep
rain chances to a minimum.
Temperatures will cool off after today with comfortable fall daytime
temperatures and rather cool overnight temperatures through Sunday
morning. We begin to slowly warm back up Sunday afternoon with
continued gradual warming trend through the middle of next week.
A Light southeast flow across the northwest Gulf of Mexico this
morning will become northerly this afternoon and evening as a
cold front pushes into the coastal water. Showers and thunderstorms
will develop in advance of the front and end a short time after
frontal passage as stable drier air settles into the region. A
secondary surge of stronger offshore flow tonight will likely
require a small craft advisory to be issued for building winds and
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 84 54 73 46 / 60 10 0 0
LCH 84 59 76 50 / 60 10 0 0
LFT 86 59 76 49 / 50 30 0 0
BPT 85 59 77 52 / 50 10 0 0
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Friday
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION from 7 PM CDT this evening through
Friday evening for GMZ430-432-435.