Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 222243
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
443 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROF CURRENTLY TRANSLATING EASTWARD THROUGH
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY PER LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY.
BLOB OF CONVECTION OVER THE GULF WATERS TIED TO AN APPARENT
MARINE/WARM FRONT...WITH LIFT FURTHER ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK AND LEAD IMPULSE PIVOTING AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROF.
EROSION IS NOTED FROM WEST TO EAST ON RADAR IMAGERY...WHILE
ADDITIONAL/NEW BUT THUS FAR SHALLOWER DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING
FARTHER WEST OVER EAST TX INTO THE ADJACENT GULF. THE CONCERN WITH
THIS DEEP CONVECTION IS THAT IT WOULD ACT TO INHIBIT/INTERCEPT NWD
DEEP MSTR TRANSPORT...BUT THE ERODING TREND POINTS THAT BEING A
DECREASING POSSIBILITY.

MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTION REMAINS FARTHER WEST ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS...AND MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POINT TOWARD COALESCENCE
INTO A QLCS TYPE STRUCTURE WITH SUBSEQUENT EASTWARD PROGRESSION
THROUGH EAST TEXAS THIS EVENING...AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL LOUISIANA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BULK SHEAR/HELICITY PROFILES REMAIN
SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING UPDRAFTS...WITH A DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO
RISK WITH EITHER DISCRETE CELLS OR LEWPS/BOWS WITHIN LINE SEGMENTS.
PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR CONTINUES TO BE INSTABILITY...WITH THE
BEST BUOYANCY PROGGED TO REMAIN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND
OFFSHORE.

A GOOD AREAWIDE SOAKING CONTINUES TO LOOK ON TARGET...WITH 1-2
INCHES EXPECTED...AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

CONVECTION IS FCST TO END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND A
CLEARING SKY EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE. COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS
THE AREA TOMORROW NIGHT...WITH COOLER/MILDER AND DRIER WEATHER
PREVAILING THROUGH MID WEEK AS A LONGWAVE TROF DIGS INTO THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS. GFS/ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TWD THE
END OF THE WEEK...SHOWING A WARMING TREND FROM THANKSGIVING INTO
THE WEEKEND.

13

&&

.MARINE...
MODEST EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM ADVANCING
EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH STRONGER WINDS POSSIBLE.
ALSO...THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING WATER LEVELS
1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS THE
COASTAL LAKES AND BAYS. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM WITH SUBSIDING WINDS AND
SEAS. THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...WITH OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  64  76  50  65 /  90  20  10  10
KBPT  63  78  50  65 / 100  20  10  10
KAEX  62  77  47  64 /  90  30  10  10
KLFT  64  76  52  65 /  90  40  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR CALCASIEU-EAST
     CAMERON-IBERIA-ST. MARY-VERMILION-WEST CAMERON.

TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR JEFFERSON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS
     FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS
     FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM
     20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
     CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM CAMERON LA
     TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.


&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...13




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