000
FXUS64 KLCH 221152
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
652 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.DISCUSSION...
22/12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
BKN BAND OF CONVECTION OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...AND EXPECTED TO AFFECT KBPT...KLCH...KLFT AND KARA FOR
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BEFORE PUSHING FURTHER SOUTH AND DIMINISHING.
PERIODIC MVFR CIGS AT THESE SITES THIS MORNING WILL LIFT TO VFR BY
MIDDAY. OTHERWISE...NO PRECIP EXPECTED AT KAEX WITH MID/HIGH
CLOUDS DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY. VRBL WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING
IN THE WAKE OF CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE SLY LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THIS AFTN. FOR TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST GROUND COULD
RESULT IN SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF FROM THE MIDWEST DOWN TO EAST TEXAS WILL MOVE
EASTWARD AND HELP PUSH A WEAK SURFACE COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. ALREADY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE FORMED...MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-10...BETWEEN THE PRE-FRONTAL
TROF/CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND THE SURFACE FRONT. WATER
VAPOR SHOWS A JET STREAK MOVING ACROSS...HELPING TO PROVIDE
DECENT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...WHICH IS GIVING A BIT OF AN
ENHANCEMENT TO THE STORMS. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED STRONG TO
MARGINAL SEVERE STORMS BETWEEN NOW AND DAWN...WITH HAIL AND
STRAIGHT LINE DOWN BURST WINDS THE MAIN SEVERE ASPECTS.
ALSO...HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND A BIT OF A TRAINING TO THE STORMS
COULD PROVIDE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH STREET FLOODING
POSSIBLE. AND FINALLY...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL
ALSO OCCUR WITH THE STORMS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EAST DURING THE
DAY...WITH A MORE STABLE AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND
IT...WITH SHOWERS GRADUALLY DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE
MORNING TO AFTERNOON.

SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LINGER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THAT WILL COMBINE WITH GULF MOISTURE AND
DAYTIME HEATING TO PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD IN OVER THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD END ANY RAIN CHANCES.

RUA

MARINE...
A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL NORTH OF THE
COASTAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
FROM THE EAST. THE RESULT SHOULD BE MAINLY LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  86  70  88  70 /  50  10  20  10
KBPT  87  72  87  71 /  50  10  20  10
KAEX  87  68  90  70 /  60  10  20  10
KLFT  87  72  89  71 /  50  10  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...07
AVIATION...24