000
FXUS64 KLCH 242345
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
645 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...
25/00Z TAF Issuance.

&&

.AVIATION...
Isltd convection has been dissipating late this aftn with KLCH
radar showing an isltd TSRA crossing the Atchafalaya Basin near
Melville and Krotz Springs, well north of the Acadiana terminals.
Expect another quiet night with VFR to prevail although patchy
ground fog could deepen enough to produce MVFR vsbys at KAEX after
midnight. E-SE winds less than 5 kt tonight will strengthen
Sunday morning to 5-10 kt. Sctd CU to develop Sunday morning with
a few isltd SHRA/TSRA again possible mainly near KBPT and KLCH
during the day.

24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 328 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016/

SYNOPSIS...
Still feeling like summer with air temperatures around 90F as flow
around weak high bringing in a humid southeast air mass. With
daytime heating, a few showers and thunderstorms are developing
along the sea breeze and gradually moving inland.

Meanwhile, latest water vapor imagery shows large upper level
trough dominating the CONUS region from the northern plains to
the dessert southwest and is moving slowly to the east.

Rua

DISCUSSION...
The forecast area will continue to see a humid Gulf air mass
through Monday, then the upper level trough will finally move far
enough off to the east to push a cold front across on Tuesday.

Until the cold front moves through, expect more of a summer time
pattern with scattered showers and thunderstorms (mainly in the
afternoon) with warm temperatures.

However, once cold front moves through, a deepening northerly flow
will allow a dry continental air mass to move into a settle over
the region. This will bring the first real taste of fall weather
from Wednesday through the end of next week.

Rua

MARINE...
Weak surface ridge will slowly weaken during the remainder of the
weekend into early next week. Until then, a light to moderate
onshore flow will persist. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
will also be possible as an upper level trough nears the region. A
cold front will move across the coastal waters on Tuesday, ending
rain chances and providing a light to moderate offshore flow.

Rua

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  71  92  72  91 /  10  20  20  30
LCH  74  90  74  90 /  10  30  20  40
LFT  73  92  74  91 /  10  20  20  30
BPT  76  90  74  91 /  20  40  30  40

&&

.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION...24