Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
624 FXUS64 KLCH 091747 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1247 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... -The upper level low will weaken on Thursday as it moves into Texas. Still enough of a weakness aloft to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms, although a modest Saharan Air Layer moving across may help to decrease convection somewhat late in the day and into Friday. -Flat upper level ridge overhead during the weekend will likely produce a typical summertime pattern with scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms along with the usual hot and humid conditions. -The upper level ridge will strengthen early next week and this should decrease rain chances while increasing the heat. Potential for heat advisory criteria as early as Monday into Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 1245 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 The upper level low is nearing the east Texas coast. It looks like this feature is opening up some with the trough axis up into the forecast area. This is providing enough of a weakness aloft to go along with decent moisture values with PWAT between 1.9 and 2 inches, that scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed. This activity will continue until sunset. Some of the storms will have some gusty winds up to 35 mph with them, to go along with frequent cloud to ground lightning, and torrential downpours that could produce a quick one to two inches of rain. On Thursday, the upper level low is expected to continue to move into Texas and weaken further. There will be decent moisture hanging around, although probably not as highly anomalous as it has been. There will also be enough of a weakness aloft that should allow for diurnal type and seabreeze type storms in the afternoon. However, models still show a modest Saharan Air Layer rotating around the subtropical ridge that looks to reach the forecast area late Thursday then expand over the area on Friday. Therefore, this may lead to some inhibition of the showers and storms with a slightly lower chance, especially on Friday. Rua && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 A rather weak flat upper level ridge is expected over the weekend with southerly flow in the low levels bringing in Gulf moisture. Therefore, expect rather typical summertime weather with the hot and humid days, and scattered diurnal showers and thunderstorms. Early next week indications are that an upper level ridge will begin to strengthen over the forecast area. This will likely decrease the diurnal showers and storms. Meanwhile, high humidity values will remain in place with higher air temperatures due to the lack of convection and cooling outflow boundaries. Therefore, heat risk may increase early next week with the potential for heat advisory criteria. Rua && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1237 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 With daytime heating and a moist and unstable airmass, scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed across the forecast area. This activity will continue until around sunset or about 10/02z. Until then, potential for occasional gusty winds and MVFR/IFR conditions in the storms. Away from the storms expect VFR conditions. Rua && .MARINE... Issued at 1235 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 Weak surface high ridging across the northern Gulf and into the forecast area will help keep a mainly light southerly flow along with relatively low seas for the remainder of the week into the weekend. There will be a daily chance for showers over the coastal waters during the late night and early morning, with a chance for showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon into early evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1232 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 Southerly flow will keep low level moisture flowing into the region. Afternoon minimum relative humidity values are expected to remain above 50 percent through the end of the week. Enough of a weakness aloft to keep a daily chance for mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 71 92 73 95 / 40 60 10 30 LCH 75 91 77 91 / 20 60 10 40 LFT 75 90 76 91 / 20 70 10 60 BPT 74 91 75 91 / 30 50 10 30 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...07