Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 011713
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1213 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.AVIATION...A CONTINUED DRY NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN LIMITED CLOUDS AND VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

UPDATE...
A SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED PAST THE COASTAL WATERS WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY RIDGING DOWN INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL KEEP A NORTHEAST FLOW AND A DRY
CONTINENTAL AIR MASS IN PLACE. LATEST UPPER AIR SOUNDING FROM
KLCH SHOWS...THAT IF INVERSION CAN COMPLETELY MIX...AIR
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100F...WHILE
DEW POINTS WOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. THIS WOULD
MAKE FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE. OF
COURSE...THIS WOULD HELP KEEP HEAT INDEX READINGS AT OR BELOW AIR
TEMPERATURES. IF THESE RH VALUES ARE ACHIEVED...IT COULD PROVIDE
AN ISSUE FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. HOWEVER...WINDS SHOULD BE ON
THE LOW SIDE TO KEEP FROM ANY RED FLAG ISSUANCE.

OVERALL THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES NEEDED AT
UPDATE TIME.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 704 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
DRY NRLY FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM OFF THE SERN LA
COAST TO THE NERN GULF WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT ENOUGH TO ALLOW
FOR ENHANCED NERLY FLOW BY LATE MORNING.

25

CLIMATE...
SEVERAL OF OUR AREA CLIMATE SITES EXPERIENCED NOTABLE JULY`S IN
TERMS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION (OR THE LACK THEREOF) LAST
MONTH.

LAFAYETTE: WARMEST JULY (DATING BACK TO 1893)
           AVERAGE TEMP 85.5 DEGREES
           PREVIOUS RECORD 84.8 DEGREES 1962
           6TH DRIEST JULY 2.03 INCHES

NEW IBERIA: WARMEST JULY (DATING BACK TO 1948)
            AVERAGE TEMP 85.0 DEGREES
            PREVIOUS RECORD 84.9 DEGREES 2005
            5TH DRIEST JULY 2.17 INCHES

LAKE CHARLES: 2ND WARMEST JULY (DATING BACK TO 1895)
              AVERAGE TEMP 85.0 DEGREES
              RECORD 85.3 DEGREES 1957
              5TH DRIEST JULY 1.08 INCHES

BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR: 2ND DRIEST JULY (DATING BACK TO 1901)
              PRECIP TOTAL 1.16 INCHES
              RECORD 0.63 INCHES 1956
              TIED 10TH WARMEST JULY 85.1 DEGREES

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS STALLED IN THE NORTHERN GULF
OR JUST AT THE OUTER EDGE OF THE CWA OVER THE PAST EVENING. NOT
MUCH COOL AIR TO WORK WITH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY, HOWEVER WITH THE
DRY AIR MASS TEMPS HAVE MANAGED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S AT A
FEW LOCATIONS THIS MORNING, HOWEVER MOST AREAS ARE STILL IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S. LOWER DEW POINTS ARE THE MOST NOTICEABLE ASPECT
OF THE FROPA WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. WITH LOWER TDS
AND THE STRONG SUMMER SUN TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER
90S AT MOST LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND A FEW SPOTS MAY HIT 100.
THIS IS ONLY ONE OR TWO DEGREES WARMER THAN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS
TEMPS RISE DEW POINTS WILL FALL INTO THE THE 50S AND 40S MAY NOT
BE OUT OF THE QUESTION AS SUGGESTED BY SOME HI-RES MODELS. THIS
WILL LEAVE THE AREA WITH VERY LOW RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON...
GENERALLY IN THE 20S, HOWEVER IF TDS FALL INTO THE 40S THE RHS MAY
FALL INTO THE TEENS. AFTER SUNSET TODAY TEMPS WILL FALL BACK INTO
THE LOW 70S TO UPPER 60S FOR SUNDAY MORNING.

MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY AS THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY RETURNS NORTH. BY LATE
SUNDAY AN ISOLD STORM OR TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE IN LOWER ACADIANA AS
THE BOUNDARY BUMPS INTO THE COAST. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN
MONDAY WITH DEW POINTS RETURNING TO THE TYPICAL MUGGY 70S
EVERYWHERE BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD THE UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL
REMAIN CENTERED WELL TO THE WEST WITH OUR REGION REMAINING ON THE
EAST EDGE. THIS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AND
WITH POPS HIGHER ALONG THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN WITH LESSER CHANCES
IN SE TX.

MARINE...A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF THROUGH TODAY. THIS WEAK BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH
SUNDAY AND PUSH ONSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE BOUNDARY. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  96  68  97  72 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  98  71  97  76 /   0   0  10   0
LFT  98  74  98  77 /   0   0  10  10
BPT  99  72  97  76 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...23


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