Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 301352
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
852 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
RAINS AND GETTING FOCUSED INTO SE TX AND SRN LA. A FLOOD WATCH AND
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN POSTED. FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR EVANGELINE....
ALLEN...SE BEAUREGARD...EASTERN CALCASIEU... AND JEFFERSON DAVIS
PARISHES THROUGH THE NOON HOUR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 750 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE...TROPICAL MOISTURE
CONTINUING TO FEED WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THIS MORNING. WILL LIKELY SEE DRIER AIR MOVE IN FROM THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. UNTIL THEN...IFR AND MVFR WILL BE THE DOMINANT
CONDITIONS IN THE TAFS. RAPID CHANGES WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE IT
CHALLENGING THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE FINALLY
STABILIZING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 523 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL STREAM INTO OUR AREA THROUGH A
WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE. PRECIP WATER VALUES EXPECTED WITH OVER
2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM NORMAL INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH FLOODING POSSIBLE. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.

SHORT TERM...THE EURO LOOKS BEST ON HANDLING THIS MOISTURE OUT OF
THE TROPICS WITH THE ASSOCIATED RAINFALL. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS WELL BELOW CLIMO AND SHOULD NOT REACH
ANY HIGHER THAN THE UPPER 80S TODAY. GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
THROUGH TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT SHOULD HELP THE RAINFALL PROCESS.

LONG TERM...A RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL
JET WILL LIKELY CREATE ENOUGH AGEOSTROPHIC LIFTING FOR THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. THE
SUBTROPICAL BERMUDA RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD INTO EAST TEXAS
LATER ON SUNDAY WITH DRIER AIR AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS. LABOR
DAY IS LOOKING GOOD WITH ONLY A MINIMAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

RAIN CHANCES DECREASE AFTER TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD OUT OF THE EAST.

HYDROLOGY...EXPECTING NEARLY 3 INCHES OF AREAL AVERAGE RAINFALL
INTO THIS EVENING. LOCALLY UP TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

SWEENEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  82  77  89  78  90 / 100  50  20  10  20
KBPT  81  76  90  78  90 / 100  50  30  10  30
KAEX  81  76  90  74  92 / 100  50  20  10  20
KLFT  85  75  91  77  91 / 100  50  20  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ACADIA...ALLEN...AVOYELLES...BEAUREGARD...CALCASIEU...EAST
     CAMERON...EVANGELINE...IBERIA...JEFFERSON DAVIS...
     LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...RAPIDES...ST. LANDRY...ST.
     MARY...UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERMILION...VERNON...WEST CAMERON.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     JEFFERSON...ORANGE.

GM...NONE.
&&

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&&

$$







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