Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 221012
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
512 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
RELATIVELY BENIGN AND UNEVENTFUL FCST ON TAP FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN QUITE GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO THE WEST IS PROGGED TO SLIDE EAST
THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH AN UPSTREAM TROF FCST
TO ALSO TRANSLATE EWD...TRAVERSING THE AREA ON THU EN ROUTE TO
DIGGING INTO THE SE CONUS AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS.
THE UPPER RIDGE IS FCST TO SUBSEQUENTLY SHIFT EAST AND FLATTEN OUT
IN ADVANCE OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT WRN CONUS TROF.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL BE RE-ENFORCED/MAINTAINED BY THE
FIRST TROF PASSAGE...WITH A DRY CONTINENTAL AIRMASS REMAINING IN
PLACE. HINTS OF RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW APPEAR SUNDAY AS THE SFC AND
UPPER RIDGING SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. THE GLBL MDLS DO DIVERGE
WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF THE SECOND TROF...WITH THE ECMWF DEEPER THAN
THE GFS. THE END RESULT IS THE ECMWF SHOWING A FROPA ON TUE...WHILE
THE GFS HANGS THE FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH.

AFTER A SLIGHT COOLDOWN TONIGHT/TOMORROW WITH SOMETHING OF A
BACKDOOR DRY/COOL FRONT SLIPPING THROUGH TODAY...A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED...WITH WARMING/MOISTENING ACCELERATING OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. SMALL RAIN CHANCES WERE
CARRIED TUE...AS EVEN THE WAA PATTERN SHOWN BY THE GFS WOULD
LIKELY AT LEAST GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS.

13

&&

.MARINE...
OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS A MEAN
AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE GULF COAST STATES.
THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC ON
SUNDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING. RECENTLY FORMED TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NINE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARD
THE EAST ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND AWAY FROM THE WESTERN
GULF OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  81  56  77  54 /   0   0   0   0
KBPT  81  58  78  56 /   0   0   0   0
KAEX  80  50  75  50 /   0   0   0   0
KLFT  81  54  77  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR
     WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60
     NM-WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60
     NM-WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
     LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM.


&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...13





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