Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 191528
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1028 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK. WILL KEEP SCEC GOING FOR
NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS FOR TODAY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
ARE PLANNED AT THIS MOMENT.

&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT TONIGHT HAS FINALLY PUSHED INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WITH
DRY AIRMASS FILTERING INTO THE AREA IN ITS WAKE.

NO CHANGES TO THE OVERALL THINKING NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS DRY
AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOW
LEVELS. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOL NIGHTS AND MILD DAYS.

NEXT FRONT STILL SCHEDULED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AS NEW
ENERGY DIVES INTO THE EAST COAST TROUGH. DIFFERENCES IN THE
GUIDANCE BEGIN TO SHOW UP THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE EVOLUTION
OF THE NEXT TROUGH. BOTH ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR...BUT THE KEY
DIFFERENCE IS THE AMPLITUDE. THE ECMWF WOULD RESULT IN MORE
CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLY SOME SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL
HOLD OFF ON INTRODUCTION OF PRECIPITATION AND SEE HOW THINGS
EVOLVE. THE LAST TIME A SIMILAR FEATURE WAS FORECAST A WEEK OR SO
AGO...THE ECMWF HAD TOO MUCH AMPLIFICATION OF THAT SYSTEM.

MARINE...
WINDS HAVE INCREASED IN THE COASTAL WATERS BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND
THESE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE A BIT THROUGH EARLY MORNING BEFORE
DIMINISHING A BIT THIS AFTERNOON. SCEC WAS INCLUDED WITH THIS
UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  80  58  81  59  83 /   0  10  10   0   0
KBPT  81  60  82  61  83 /   0  10  10  10   0
KAEX  76  52  80  55  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
KLFT  80  58  82  59  83 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$






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