977
FXUS64 KLCH 051706
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1206 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1133 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Made some adjustments to hourly PoPs/Wx grids based on current
radar trends and latest hi-res guidance. Radar has thankfully
shown a diminishing trend with the convection near Houston that is
moving east into Jefferson and southern Hardin Counties. Earlier
convection across SW LA showed signs of at least midlevel
rotation, but this has weakened and moved east of the area.

While the main impulse is lifting northeast, another one is noted
back to the southwest which could support some additional
convection later this afternoon. The atmosphere remains moist and
unstable with enough shear to support a few storms capable of
strong wind gusts or small hail. Meanwhile, the threat for
widespread flooding is beginning to trend more localized, and any
storms that develop this afternoon could produce very high
rainfall rates. The Flood Watch will remain in effect through 7 PM
this evening as the threat will persist until convection finally
diminishes.

Given lingering cloud cover and showers, temperatures have been a
little slower to warm than expected so tweaks were made to hourly
T/Td. However, highs still look to be on track to reach the lower
80s.  Updated text products have been sent.

24

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

A broken line of convection has developed across the region this
morning in what will be the first wave of convection associated
with another upper level disturbance traversing the region today.
CAMS guidance was actually quite consistent in the development of
this activity and continues to be in good agreement on another MCS
pushing through the area later today. With most of the region
still very saturated from rainfall over the last several days,
southeast Texas and parts of western Louisiana are particularly
susceptible to flash flooding resulting from high rainfall rates.
No changes were made to the inherited Flash Flood Watch this
morning that covers Southeast Texas and a Flash Flood Warning has
already been issued for Tyler county due to the heavy rain already
observed. Away from the convection, areas of light fog have again
developed this morning thanks to light winds and very wet soils.

The MCS is expected to clear the area by early this evening with
precip largely ending by sunset. Surface winds overnight will be
marginally light enough for the development of some patchy fog.
Monday is looking somewhat drier. However, another weak
disturbance is being picked up by most guidance and while this one
isn`t nearly as strong as the one moving across the region today,
it looks like it will have enough moisture with it to initialize
isolated to widely scattered afternoon convection tomorrow.

Some drier air and zonal flow aloft will finally offer a break
from convection Tuesday with afternoon highs climbing into the mid
to upper 80s beneath the clearer skies.

Jones

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

The warming trend continues into Wednesday with afternoon highs
in the upper 80s to lower 90s across the region which will yield
apparent temperatures close to 100 across parts of central
Louisiana and interior parts of Southeast Texas. The next,
thankfully low, chance of rain looks to come Thursday into
Thursday night with the passage of a late season cold front that
looks to bring some noticeably cooler, drier air by next weekend.
Long range temperatures have lows down into the mid 50s across
central Louisiana and lower 60s to just off the immediate
coastline. This may be our last gasp of spring before the
notorious gulf coast summer kicks into high gear.

Jones

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1133 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

A mix of MVFR/VFR conditions are seen across the area. Expect a
trend toward VFR at area sites during the afternoon, but scattered
showers and storms could develop, resulting in rapidly lowering
cigs/vsbys near airports. Convection should diminish after 00Z,
with cigs lowering back to MVFR or possibly IFR at times by 06Z.
Some patchy fog will be possible as well. Winds will remain
generally light, out of the south.

24

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 325 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

A light to moderate onshore flow and seas of two to four feet
will prevail for much of the upcoming week. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will develop through the day before diminishing
this evening with rain chances remaining limited thereafter through
the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  81  66  85  70 /  80  10  30   0
LCH  80  70  83  73 /  50  20  20   0
LFT  84  72  86  75 /  40  20  20   0
BPT  81  71  84  73 /  70  10  20   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ180-201-259>262-
     515-516-615-616.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....66
AVIATION...24