Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS66 KLOX 252049
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
149 PM PDT Thu May 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
The low will push the marine layer...possible precipitation and
below normal temperatures farther inland into Saturday. A high will
build in over the weekend to push the marine layer back to the coast
with above normal temperatures for early next week. Another low may
approach near midweek for increasing clouds and cooling trend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TDY-SUN)

No significant changes to the 7 day forecast. A deep marine lyr in
excess of 4000` will continue through at least Friday with very
slow, if any clearing and well below normal temps. A little better
chance of drizzle or light rain tomorrow morning with some PVA
aloft, especially along the foothills of the San Gabriels. With
the inversion continuing to weaken tomorrow there`s a chance that
we could see a reverse clearing pattern Friday where it stays
cloudy inland but clears better towards the coast. Another day of
gusty winds expected in the Antelope Valley.

Warming aloft will begin Saturday behind the trough passage but
the marine lyr should still be at least 3000` deep. Better
clearing expected Saturday as the ridge builds aloft and onshore
gradients weaken. Temps will warm around 5 degrees most areas.

The warming trend will continue Sunday as the ridge continues to
build over the west coast. Inland highs expected to climb around
10 degrees from Saturday`s levels and coastal areas warming 2-5
degrees.

.LONG TERM...(MON-THU)

Warming trend to continue at least into Monday before the ridge
starts to shift east ahead of an advancing trough over the eastern
Pacific. Both the GFS and ECMWF split off some energy from the
trough and develop a closed low circulation over nrn Baja late
Tuesday into Wednesday. So probably one more day of either similar
or slightly warmer temps Tuesday and then cooling by Wednesday
with the upper low. Again there is no moisture with this low but
it will deepen the marine lyr and cool things off slightly for the
latter half of the week. Nothing like what we`re seeing now but at
least back to near normal temps.

&&

.AVIATION...25/1800Z.

At 17Z, the marine inversion at KLAX was 4200 feet deep. The top
of the inversion was 6500 feet with a temperature of 15 degrees
Celsius.

High confidence in CIGS at most sites in the 025-035 range today.
Low confidence however on when CIGS will be MVFR 030 versus VFR
035. Moderate confidence that all sites (except for KWJF or KPMD)
will have CIGS all day, but there is a chance for brief partial
clearing. There is a chance that CIGS lower some this afternoon,
and a better chance this evening. High confidence that marine
layer and CIGS will deepen after midnight and should result in
areas of occasional -DZ or -RA. No VIS issues expected, except
for a 30 percent chance for BLDU at KWJF and KPMD today. Gusty
southwest winds likely at KPRB KWJF KPMD.

KLAX...70 percent chance of OVC030-035 all day. 60 percent chance
that CIGS lower just below 030 from 00-06Z. 40 percent chance of
occasional -DZ or -RA 06-18Z Friday.

KBUR...90 percent chance of CIGS all day. 40 percent chance CIGS
lower just below 030 20-24Z. 80 percent chance that CIGS lower to
025 from 00-06Z. 40 percent chance of occasional -DZ or -RA
06-18Z Friday.

&&

.MARINE...25/100 PM.

High confidence sub-Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions through
Friday. Southwest winds near the coast from Ventura to Orange
County through this evening looks less than it did earlier.
Typically gusty northwest winds should reform over the
weekend...with SCA certain from the Central Coast to San Nicolas
Island...and short period seas for the Santa Barbara Channel and
Santa Monica Basin. There is a 30 percent chance for SCA
conditions over the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel on
Sunday.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening for zones
      37-59. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...NONE.

&&

.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...(SUN-THU)
No significant hazards expected.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...Kittell
MARINE...Kittell
SYNOPSIS...STu

weather.gov/losangeles


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.