Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA
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000 FXUS66 KLOX 221136 AFDLOX SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA 330 AM PST SUN NOV 22 2009 .SYNOPSIS... TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. ON MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ESTABLISH...QUICKLY WARMING TEMPERATURES BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS. WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING...BRINGING THE AREA WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. && .SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)... SKIES ARE CLEAR TODAY EXCEPT ON THE NORTH SLOPES AND THE CUYAMA VLY WHERE NORTH WINDS HAVE BANKED UP SOME LOW CLOUDS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO MAY BE PRESENT IN THESE CLOUDS. WINDS THE BIG CONCERN TODAY CURRENT WINDS ARE A BIT BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT A SECOND SHOT OF COLD AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IS FORECAST LATER TODAY AND THIS SHOULD BE ALL THAT`S NEEDED FOR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS THROUGH THE I-5 CORRIDOR AND THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST/SANTA YNEZ RANGE. THE WINDS OVER THE VTA AND LA MTNS WILL TURN NE MONDAY MORNING AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS FROM THIS DIRECTION SO THE ADVISORY THERE GOES TO 1000 AM MONDAY WHILE THE SBA SOUTH COAST WIND ADVISORY ENDS WITH THE DEMISE OF THE NORTH WINDS AROUND 300 AM MONDAY. TEMPS TODAY WILL BE COOL...SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS WITH ONLY 562 DM THKNS. A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA MONDAY AND LASTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE A DECENT HIGH BUILDS INTO NEVADA AND SETS UP NE FLOW THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR AND WILL QUICKLY WARM TEMPS UP FROM TODAYS COOLER VALUES. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN OFFSHORE FLOW EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE STRONGEST NORTHEAST WINDS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH VALUES FLIRTING WITH ADVISORY LEVELS. THE RIDGE AND THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE INTERIOR SECTIONS WILL SEE TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. BUT THE COASTS AND VLYS WILL SEE A MUCH BETTER JUMP UP IN TEMPS DUE TO THE COMPRESSIONAL WARMING ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW. TUE AND WED SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAYS FOE THE NEXT SEVEN. .LONG TERM (THU-SAT)... BOTH THE GFS AND THE EC AGREE THAT THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN THANKSGIVING. THE EC IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE AND BRINGS IN A FULL ON TROF TO SO CAL WHILE THE GFS MERELY FLATTENS THE RIDGE OUT. WILL LET THE MDLS SLUG IT OUT FOR A FEW MORE RUNS BEFORE ALTERING THE FORECAST TOWARDS EITHER SOLN. THE BIG THING IS THAT THE TEMPS WILL COLLAPSE AND THIS IS IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. && .AVIATION... 22/1130Z. EXPECT VFR CONDS ACROSS CWA...EXCEPT SOME MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE ERN INTERIOR VALLEYS OF SBA COUNTY AND THE NRN SLOPES OF VTU COUNTY MTNS THIS MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME MVFR VSBYS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LA COAST THROUGH 17Z AS WELL. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP TODAY CAUSING SOME LLWS NEAR KSBA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOR TONIGHT...VFR CONDS SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...EXCEPT BETTER CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SLO INTERIOR VALLEYS AS SOME CLOUD COVER GETS PUSHED WESTWARD FROM THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. KLAX...EXPECT VFR CONDS WITH 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR VSBYS THROUGH 17Z. 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CIGS AFTER 09Z TONIGHT. KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX). GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX). SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX). HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...RORKE AVIATION...KAPLAN SYNOPSIS...DMG WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
