Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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FXUS66 KLOX 271743
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
942 AM PST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE LARGE RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL SLOWLY FLATTEN AND OFFSHORE BREEZES
WILL GRADUALLY TURN ONSHORE...BEGINNING A COOLING TREND ON FRIDAY
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ON THE
CENTRAL COAST ON SUNDAY...BUT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTH. THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.UPDATE (TODAY-SUN)...
VERY NICE THREE DAYS ON TAP AS LARGE RIDGE OVERHEAD SLOWLY FLATTENS.
OFFSHORE WINDS SLOWLY RELAX AND FINALLY TURN ONSHORE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE UP A BIT FROM YESTERDAY MORNING...BUT EXPECT
THE AFTERNOON HIGHS TO BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WHICH WAS ABOUT 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE CSTS AND VLYS AND SET TWO RECORDS (LONG
BEACH AIRPORT AND SANDBERG). FRIDAY WILL BE MORE SEASONAL ACROSS THE
COASTS AND VLYS WITH THE RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW AND INLAND AREAS
WILL ONLY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER DUE TO HGT FALLS. ONSHORE
FLOW AND A WEAK EDDY WILL BRING LOW CLOUDS TO MUCH OF THE COASTS AND
FURTHER THE COOLING TREND WITH TEMPS COOLING TO SEASONAL NORMS.

STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT SETS UP SUNDAY BRINGING CLOUDS.  THESE CLOUDS
AND THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CREATE A PRETTY EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL
STRATUS DECK. THE TAIL END OF A FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO
THE CENTRAL COAST. EXCEPT FOR IN NORTHWEST SLO COUNTY...WHATEVER
RAIN DOES FALL WILL BE LIGHT. THE EC NOW FORECASTS SOME WARM FRONTAL
LIKE RAIN SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION BUT EVERY OTHER MDL KEEPS IT DRY
SO STILL GOING WITH THAT.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (MON-WED)...
THE UTTER LACK OF MDL CONSISTENCY OR AGREEMENT CONTINUES ALTHOUGH
NOW MOST MDLS AGREE THAT MONDAY WILL BE DRY. STILL KEPT SOME POPS IN
BECAUSE TODAYS RUNS COULD EASILY BRING RAIN BACK INTO THE FCST.

OTHER THAN THAT THERE IS NO HOPE. THE PROBLEM IS THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF AN UPPER LOW THAT FORMS OVER THE ALEUTIANS FRIDAY
EVENING AND THEN TAKES A SSE TRACK TO A POINT ABOUT 1200 MILES WEST
OF PT CONCEPTION BY SUNDAY EVENING. AFTER THAT THERE IS NO AGREEMENT
ON HOW EXACTLY THIS LOW WILL TRACK TO THE EAST AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE
IT WILL ENTRAIN ON ITS EASTWARD JOURNEY. THE GFS IS FAST AND WET
WITH GOOD RAINFALL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING TO TUESDAY EVENING. THE EC
IS MUCH SLOWER AND BRINGS IN A STORM WITH LESS RAINFALL THURSDAY AND
SOME OF FRIDAY.

JUST KEPT A BROAD BRUSH CLOUDY CHC POP FORECAST GOING IN THE
EXTENDED. AS THE MAGIC 8 BALL WOULD SAY: "FUTURE UNCERTAIN TRY AGAIN
LATER"

&&

.AVIATION...27/1800Z...

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT
EAST. UPPER LEVEL MODERATE WEST WINDS WILL BECOME MODERATE SOUTHWEST
AFTER 28/07Z WHILE MID LEVEL LIGHT WEST WINDS BECOME LIGHT SOUTHWEST
AFTER 28/16Z. WEAK MIXED ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT
THROUGH 28/01Z AND WEAK ONSHORE GRADIENT AFTER 28/20Z...OTHERWISE
RELATIVELY FLAT GRADIENT BETWEEN 28/01-28/20Z.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1655Z IS 0 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION TOP IS
AT 1723 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 25 DEGREES C.

KLAX...VERY LIKELY CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

KBUR...VIRTUALLY CERTAIN CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS



&&

.MARINE...27/900 AM...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC TODAY IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST WHILE WEAKENING THROUGH FRIDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL THEN PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY WHILE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. SOUTH WINDS
WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY CREATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FROM THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS TO POINT PIEDRAS
BLANCAS. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST AND APPROACHES THE
COAST NEXT WEEK MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SEAS GENERATED SOUTH OF THE
LOW CENTER WITHIN A LIMITED FETCH AREA AND ORIENTED BETWEEN 240-270
DEGREES RELATIVE TO THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO ARRIVE LATE
TUESDAY AND BUILD THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS
SEA CONDITIONS AREA POSSIBLE.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...SETO

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