Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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000
FXUS66 KLOX 290025 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
525 PM PDT THU MAY 28 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND AND A
SHRINKING MARINE LAYER THROUGH SATURDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOR INLAND AREAS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A MOISTURE
STARVED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY LATE
SUNDAY...BRINGING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...NOT MUCH TO ADD FROM LAST SEVERAL FORECAST
DISCUSSIONS. RIDGE BUILDING IN FOR A WARMING TREND, THOUGH COASTAL
AREAS WON`T SEE MUCH OF IT DUE TO A STRONG MARINE INVERSION AND
CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW. VALLEYS TRENDED UP 4-8 DEGREES TODAY AND
EXPECT A SIMILAR TREND FRIDAY. SKIES WERE SLOWER TO CLEAR AT THE
COAST TODAY, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN PT DUME AND GOLETA, AND I SUSPECT
WE`LL SEE THAT REPEAT ITSELF THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS SAT WILL
PROBABLY BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER BUT OVERALL FAIRLY SIMILAR TO
FRIDAY. COOLING ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND ONSHORE FLOW
STRENGTHENS.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...PRETTY QUIET NEXT WEEK. THE TROF WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL COOLING MON/TUE, THEN LEVELING OFF WED BEFORE SOME MORE
COOLING WITH A SECOND TROF FOR THU/FRI. SO EXPECT LOTS OF MARINE LYR
NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL

&&

.AVIATION...29/0015Z

AT 2320Z THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH AT KLAX WAS AROUND 1000 FT DEEP. THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION WAS NEAR 4100 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 22
DEGREES CELSIUS.

GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAFS. LOW CLOUDS WITH LIFR/
IFR/MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE COASTAL AIRFIELDS THIS
EVENING WITH THE ONSET OF THE LOW CLOUDS RANGING FROM 03Z AT
KLAX...TO 12Z AT KSBA. THE TIMING OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW
CLOUDS HAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR SO. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CLEAR TO VFR BY LATE FRI MORNING TO EARLY FRI
AFTERNOON...EXCEPT LATE FRI AFTERNOON AT KOXR. FOR KBUR AND
KVNY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU FRI AFTERNOON...ALTHO
THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT AND FRI
MORNING. FOR KPRB...KPMD AND KWJF...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU
FRI.

KLAX...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. LOW CLOUDS WITH
IFR/MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AIRFIELD BY 03Z THIS
EVENING...ALTHO THE TIMING OF THE LOW CLOUDS MAY BE OFF PLUS/MINUS
AN HOUR OR SO. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR TO VFR BY 19Z
FRI AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL 04Z FRI EVENING...FOLLOWED
BY MORE LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS.

KBUR...GENERALLY HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. EXCEPT FOR A PERIOD
OF MVFR VSBYS DUE TO HAZE FROM 11Z-18Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THRU FRI AFTERNOON...ALTHO THERE IS A 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF
IFR/MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...28/200 PM

OUTER WATERS...EXPECT NORTHWEST SCA WINDS TO STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY
LESS CONFIDENCE FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS OVER THE OUTER WATERS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THE GUSTS TO BE ISOLATED UNTIL FRIDAY
EVENING. 40% CHANCE A SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

INNER WATERS...SCA WINDS EXPECTED FOR PZZ645 ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS. OTHERWISE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

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