Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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000
FXUS66 KLOX 250307
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
805 PM PDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY
BRINGING COOLER WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. THERE WILL BE
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THE CENTRAL COAST TO THE VERY NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR SATURDAY...WITH A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN SLOPES SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL. WARMER
WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...EVENING UPDATE...
TEMPS REMAINED QUITE HIGH TODAY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS SUCH AS CUYAMA WHICH
REACHED 95 DEGREES.(UNOFFICIAL RECORD) WAS 90 DEGREES BACK IN 2007.
THE COMBINATION OF A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE AND WEAK SURFACE
OFFSHORE FLOW THAT WAS A TAD STRONGER THAN EXPECTED HELPED MOST
INLAND AREAS REMAIN QUITE WARM. THE CENTRAL COAST WAS MUCH COOLER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS DUE TO THE COOLER MARINE LAYER INFLUENCE.

FOR THIS EVENING...LOW CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH HAVE
ALREADY REACHED THE CENTRAL COAST. WITH THE MARINE LAYER DEEPENING N
OF POINT CONCEPTION..EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO PUSH OVER THE FOOTHILLS
INTO THE SLO VALLEYS LIKELY REACHING PASO ROBLES OVERNIGHT. A 545 DM
LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE NRN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
NORTHEAST INTO OREGON/WASHINGTON AND WEAKEN AS IT DOES. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...BUT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH...IT WILL
WEAKEN AS IT REACHES THE CENTRAL COAST. STILL FEEL CONFIDENT THAT A
FEW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE CENTRAL COAST EARLY SAT MORNING AND IN
AND AROUND THE PASO ROBLES AREA WITH A FEW SPRINKLES....OTHERWISE
EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR AREAS N OF POINT ON
SATURDAY WHILE COASTAL AREAS S OF POINT CONCEPTION WILL HAVE LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. THERE WILL BE
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL AS THE FRONT TO THE NORTH PASSES OVER
THE REGION.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
ELEVATED SLO/SBA COUNTY FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AND INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...BUT WILL REMAIN WELL UNDER WIND ADVISORY LEVELS.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SOME CLEARING EXPECTED BY TOMORROW EVENING FOE AREAS N OF POINT
CONCEPTION.

AS FAR AS TEMPS...BEST COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS SLO/SBA
COUNTIES DUE TO THE PASSING COLD FRONT WITH SOME AREAS LOWERING 8 TO
18 DEGREES INLAND...WITH LESS COOLING ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST. WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED OVER THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE...SANTA
YNEZ...LOMPOC AND SANTA MARIA SHOULD STAY A BIT WARMER THAN MOST
CENTRAL COAST LOCATIONS. WARMEST LOCATIONS ONLY WARMING INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. FOR LA/VTU COUNTIES...EXPECT 6 TO 10 DEGREES OF
COOLING IN MANY LOCATIONS WITH BEST COOLING INLAND. NO CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH...BUT THERE WILL BE INCREASING MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS KEEPING SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TOMORROW. WARMEST
LOCATIONS WILL BE THE LA COUNTY VALLEYS WITH HIGHS REACHING THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
THE FLOW WILL QUICKLY TURN NORTHWESTERLY WITH A FEW SHOWERS
LINGERING OVER SLO AND SBA COUNTY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS
WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS ON SUNDAY OVER THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE
VENTURA/SBA COUNTY MTNS WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW. THIS FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH SUNDAY AND SHOULD PRODUCE
ADVISORY-WORTHY WINDS FOR SOUTHERN SBA COUNTY SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
POSSIBLY THE I-5 CORRIDOR AS WELL. WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW AND 850MB
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW 10C...NOT EXPECTING ANY MARINE INVERSION OR
MARINE LAYER...BUT A FEW RANDOM SMATTERING OF CLOUDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN LA COUNTY WITH A WEAK EDDY. THIS WILL ALSO BRING SOME
ADDITIONAL COOLING...FOCUSED OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS AND MOUNTAINS.
MORE OF THE SAME ON MONDAY...WITH BREEZY BUT WEAKER NORTHERLY WINDS
AND A TOUCH OF WARMING. THE CENTRAL COAST COULD SEE A HEALTHY AMOUNT
OF WARMING HOWEVER WITH DECENT NORTHEAST FLOW. STILL NOT EXPECTING
ANY MARINE LAYER WITH STILL COLDER AIR ALOFT.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...
A WEAK BUT NOTICEABLE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD FROM THE WEST THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...WEAK NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL FORM AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES TO THE NORTH. THIS ALL SPELLS ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH CLEAR SKIES. THE WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY
OR THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S OVER COASTAL AND
VALLEY AREAS...ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. EVEN AS THE MARINE
INVERSION REFORMS WITH THE RIDGE...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY MARINE
LAYER STRATUS THANKS TO THE LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW.

AT THIS POINT...EXTENDED MODELS ARE HINTING AT A FAIRLY LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMING OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST ON FRIDAY. WHILE
THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS OF THE SOLUTIONS...IT SEEMS
LIKE THERE IS SOME HOPE FOR RAIN THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...25/0050Z...THE BASE OF THE INVERSION AT KLAX AT 0030Z
WAS NEAR 600 FT. THE INVERSION TOP WAS AT 2100 FEET WITH A
TEMPERATURE OF 25 DEGREES C.

N OF POINT CONCEPTION...

LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH CIG HEIGHTS. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATING LIFR CONDS...BUT WITH TROUGH APPROACHING THE CENTRAL
COAST WILL LOOK FOR IFR/MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 02-4Z AND
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF SLO COUNTY WITH BEST CHANCES OF VCSH
OR -RA CONDS BETWEEN 14-18Z. MAINLY FOR KSBP AND KPRB. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE WITH WIND SHIFT AFTER FROPA SAT LATE AFTERNOON.

S OF POINT CONCEPTION...LOW CONFIDENCE WITH TIMING OF IFR TO LOW
MVFR CIGS THIS EVE. CIGS COULD BE DELAYED + 2 HOURS FROM 00Z TAF
TIMES ALONG THE COAST. THERE WILL BE VFR HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING BY
SAT MORNING. 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS AT KBUR AND KVNY AFTER
10Z-13Z

KLAX...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF. IFR CIGS EXPECTED
TO ARRIVE BY 08Z...20% CHANCE OF LOWER CIGS OR THAT CIGS WILL BE
DELAYED UNTIL 10-12Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH VFR CONDS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. 50% CHANCE LIFR CIGS WILL MOVE IN AFTER 10Z.

&&

.MARINE...24/300 PM.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT...NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SCA CONDS ARE NEARLY CERTAIN
ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS BY SUNDAY...AND THERE IS A FAIRLY GOOD
CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. AT THIS TIME THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF POINT CONCEPTION. A
GALE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED TONIGHT OR TOMORROW FOR THIS EVENT.

HAZARDOUS SEA CONDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTER
WATERS BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AS A LARGER WEST
SWELL COMBINES WITH NORTHWEST WIND SWELL.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...KAPLAN/KITTELL
AVIATION...KAPLAN
MARINE...SMITH
SYNOPSIS...SETO

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