Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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FXUS66 KLOX 281630
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
930 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOONAL FLOW WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
CONTINUING IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ANTELOPE VALLEY THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A RATHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CONFINED
MOSTLY TO THE COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AROUND THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES HAVE KICKED OFF SOME CONVECTION
THIS MORNING, SO FAR CONFINED TO THE COASTAL WATERS, THOUGH A FEW
SPRINKLES HAVE DEVELOPED OVER LAND. WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT CONVECTION
NEAR AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS AS AIR MASS STABILIZES. HOWEVER, SOME DESTABILIZATION OVER THE
MTNS AND DESERTS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE HEATING,
THOUGH HOW MUCH HEATING WE GET WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON CLOUD COVER
WHICH AT THE PRESENT TIME IS FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL. THE EXPECTATION IS
THAT WE`LL GET SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON TO
ALLOW ENOUGH HEATING TO AT LEAST MAINTAIN A THREAT OF MTN/DESERT
THUNDERSTORMS. SO FOR NOW AM NOT MAKING ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH DECREASING SHOWER CHANCES OVER AND NEAR THE
COASTAL AREAS THIS MORNING, WITH THE THREAT SHIFTING TO INTERIOR
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE DOOR REMAINS OPEN FOR MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVES TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MODELS NOT INDICATING ANYTHING
SIGNIFICANT TUESDAY EXCEPT FOR SOME INTERIOR INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER ADDING SMALL TSTORM CHANCES
FOR MTNS AND DESERTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WEDNESDAY BOTH
THE NAM AND GFS SHOW SOME ENERGY SPLITTING OFF FROM WHAT WAS
HURRICANE HERNAN MOVING INTO OUR AREA. THIS MAY PROVIDE THE
NECESSARY LIFT TO GENERATE SOME MORE CONVECTION OVER AND NEAR THE
COASTAL WATERS SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH THAT CLOSELY.

OTHERWISE, TEMPS TO REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS BUT
WITH SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAN USUAL HUMIDITY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER
PATTERN...WITH A RATHER STRONG UPPER HIGH LINGERING OVER ARIZONA AND
NEW MEXICO...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
EXPECT NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS TO REMAIN CONFINED TO LOCATIONS
WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE COAST. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE 4 TO 8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST AREAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...

27/1130Z

THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM TODAY AT ANY
LOCATION TODAY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN ALL COASTAL TAFS AS CIGS MAY APPEAR OR DISAPPEAR AT
RANDOM THROUGH 17Z. THE LOW CLOUDS COULD ARRIVE A FEW HOURS EARLIER
THAN FCST TONIGHT.

KLAX...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF CIGS COULD DISSIPATE AT ANY TIME BUT IF
THEY DOE THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE IFR CIGS WILL REFORM.
A 20 PERCENT CHC OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 20Z.

KBUR...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF WITH A 20 PERCENT CHC OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 20Z.

&&

.MARINE...28/900 AM

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
MIDDAY TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITY IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
OTHER THAN NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MID WEEK.

STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES POSSIBLE IN THE OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/DB
AVIATION...ASR
MARINE...SWEET

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