Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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000
FXUS66 KLOX 032044
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
145 PM PDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL
BRING A SLIGHT WARM UP FOR MIDWEEK...THEN A DRY TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEK FOR A COOLING TREND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MAINLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH OVERNIGHT TO MORNING COASTAL CLOUDS AND FOG PERSISTING
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TUE-THU)... OVERNIGHT STRATUS WILL BE A TRICKY FORECAST
FOR TONIGHT. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE RAPIDLY MOVING ACROSS IN THE
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW TO OUR NORTHWEST.
MODELS PUT QUITE A BIT OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA FOR
TONIGHT WHICH COULD MAKE FOR UNORGANIZED OVERNIGHT STRATUS COVERAGE.
WHAT STRATUS THAT DOES FORM SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE VALLEYS.
OVERNIGHT STRATUS COVERAGE SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM...LIKELY STAYING OUT OF THE VALLEYS EACH NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...THE
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE WESTERN HALF THE SBA SOUTH COAST ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN TONIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE WINDS
SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE TO KEEP SBA OUT OF THE OVERNIGHT STRATUS.

RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AHEAD OF THE OFFSHORE CLOSED LOW
WILL BUMP UP TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY TO MAKE IT THE WARMEST DAY OF
THE 7-DAY FORECAST...SOME UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S IN THE VALLEYS AND
AROUND 100 IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. FOR THE MOST PART HIGHS WILL
STILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THEN BY THURSDAY
THE UPPER LOW MOVES CLOSER TO LOWER HEIGHTS AND COOL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN A FEW DEGREES THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...  MODELS AGREE ON PUTTING THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW AROUND THE BAY AREA LATE FRIDAY TO BRING HIGH
TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES NEAR THE COAST..TO FIVE OR MORE DEGREES
INLAND....THEN TEMPS HOLDING STEADY SATURDAY. THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH
WILL INCREASE WITH THIS LOW PASSAGE TO ALLOW OVERNGIHT STRATUS
INTRUSION INTO THE VALLEYS THU-SAT NIGHTS. HEIGHT RISES SUNDAY AFTER
THE LOW PASSAGE WILL HELP HIGHS WARM A FEW DEGREES...THEN A FEW MORE
DEGREES ON MONDAY...BUT STILL STAYING BELOW NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...03/1800Z...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL PERSIST WHILE A MID
LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES. UPPER LEVEL MODERATE AND
RELATIVELY MOIST SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL AND MID LEVEL LIGHT
WEST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST AFTER 04/20Z.
WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH 04/04Z AND AFTER
04/20Z OTHERWISE WEAK NORTH AND ONSHORE GRADIENT. MARINE INVERSION
WITH A BASE APPROXIMATELY 1.6KFT THIS MORNING WILL DIFFER LITTLE
TUESDAY MORNING. MARINE CLOUD FIELD WAS UNORGANIZED THIS MORNING AND
EXPECT LITTLE DIFFERENCE TUESDAY MORNING.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1500Z IS 1594 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION TOP
IS AT 3084 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 24 DEGREES C.

KLAX...CHANCE CIGS 012 BETWEEN 04/10-04/16Z.

KBUR...CHANCE CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...03/130 PM...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AND VERY STEEP
SEAS WILL PERSIST FROM POINT CONCEPTION TO SOUTH OF SAN NICOLAS
ISLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. AND THERE IS A CHANCE SCA
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST IN THE WEST HALF OF THE SANTA BARBARA BASIN
AND IN THE VICINITY OF SANTA CRUZ ISLAND EACH AFTERNOON TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MJ
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...RM

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