Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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000
FXUS66 KLOX 271746
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1040 AM PDT THU AUG 27 2015

...AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
INTO SATURDAY WITH THE HOTTEST DAYS TODAY AND FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL
WEAKEN SUNDAY FOR A COOLING TREND AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY
MID NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WILL BRING
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND SPREAD COASTAL CLOUDS AND FOG INLAND
EACH NIGHT THROUGH MORNING NEXT WEEK.


&&

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY-SAT)... TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER
MOST AREAS THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD CATCH UP THROUGH THE DAY WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW TO BRING ANOTHER HOT ONE.
EXPECTING SOME ISOLATED RECORD HIGHS BUT IT WON`T GET TOO OUT OF
HAND. AND JUST ENOUGH HUMIDITY REMAINING TO PUSH HEAT INDEX LEVELS
OVER 100 IN THE LA AND VTU COUNTY VALLEYS. NOT MUCH CHANGE TOMORROW
OTHER THAN SOME COOLING NORTH OF PT CONCEPTION. CURRENT FORECAST HAS
COOLING EVERYWHERE BUT NEWER GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE SOUTH OF
PT CONCEPTION SO WILL ADJUST ACCORDINGLY IN AFTERNOON UPDATE...SO
ANOTHER HOT DAY FRIDAY SOUTH. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
EASTWARD SATURDAY TO BRING FALLING HEIGHTS AND COOLING TEMPS
EVERYWHERE...BUT HIGHS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)... BOTH THE EC AND THE GFS AGREE THAT THE
ENTIRE XTND PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A GROWING LOW WAVE TROF THAT
WILL SET UP OFF OF THE WEST COAST AND THEN WILL SLOWLY MOVE OVER THE
WESTERN STATES. THE MARINE LAYER WILL INCREASE IN DEPTH AND COVERAGE
EACH DAY AND THE MAX TEMPS WILL DROP EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND
THEN HOLD STEADY WEDNESDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH NORMALS MONDAY AND
THEN WILL LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION... 27/18Z

AT 17Z AT KLAX... THE INVERSION WAS 2200 FEET DEEP.  THE TOP WAS
NEAR 2750 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 27 DEGREES CELSIUS.

OVERALL... MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAFS.  THERE IS
SLIGHT UNCERTAINTY ALONG THE COAST FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF CIGS AND/OR
REDUCED VSBY NEAR DAYBREAK.  OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL.

KLAX... MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.  THERE IS SLIGHT
UNCERTAINTY FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF CIGS AND/OR REDUCED VSBY NEAR
DAYBREAK.  OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KBUR... HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 18Z TAF.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE... 27/830 AM.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OUTER WATERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT... THOUGH WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
A FEW HOURS MIDDAY TODAY.  THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED THIS WEEKEND FOR MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS.

OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXSPSLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&
$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON/RORKE
AVIATION...KJ
MARINE...KJ
SYNOPSIS...SETO

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