Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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000
FXUS66 KLOX 251800
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
959 AM PST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

NEAR RECORD WARM CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY. TWO
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE REGION AFTER TODAY. AROUND
NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH CLOUDS
AND CHANCES OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...

THE WIND ADVISORIES FOR THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY AND THE LA COAST WERE
CANCELLED WITH THE MORNING UPDATE. THE MAJORITY OF THE SAN FERNANDO
VALLEY AND THE VENTURA COAST WILL STRUGGLE TO HIT 35 MPH GUSTS TODAY
TOO...BUT LEFT THOSE ALONE FOR NOW AS THOSE AREAS ARE MORE PRONE TO
SANTA ANA WINDS...ESPECIALLY THE HILLIER AREAS IN THE WESTERN PART
OF THE SAN FERNANDO VALLEY. WILL HAVE TO LOOK AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
EXTENDING THE WIND ADVISORIES THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE LA AND VENTURA
MOUNTAINS FOR E AND SE WINDS AS THE UPPER-LOW TO THE S STARTS TO
MOVE NORTHWARD. OTHER THAN THAT...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY WIND ISSUES
FOR THE REST OF THE LOX CWA AFTER THIS AFTERNOON.

TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY FOR LATE JANUARY FOR AREAS WEST
OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR MANY COAST
AND VALLEY AREAS. MANY RECORDS ARE WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE. IF THE
FORECAST WORKS OUT...SANTA MARIA AND PASO ROBLES WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE OF BREAKING RECORDS.

WILL BE TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT THE RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEK. AT FIRST
GLANCE...LOOKS LIKE POPS MAY HAVE TO BE INCREASED OVER INTERIOR
AREAS EARLY THIS WEEK...AS THE NAM AND GFS ARE SHOWING 0.50-1.00"
AMOUNTS OVER THE DESERT AND N FACING SLOPES OF THE SAN GABRIEL
MOUNTAINS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

BIG CHANGE IN THE WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ROTATES UP FROM THE SOUTH. AS HAS BEEN NOTED WEATHER FORECAST
MLDS ARE RATHER AWFUL AT FORECASTING LOWS ROTATING UP FROM THE SOUTH
AND THIS ONE IS NO EXCEPTION. ALL MDLS HAVE A DIFFERENT TAKE ON THE
FORECAST AND THEIR OWN FORECAST CHANGES FORM RUN TO RUN. THE OVERALL
FORECAST IS PRETTY WELL LOCKED DOWN. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASES
STARTING TONIGHT AND SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY OR OVERCAST BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH TUESDAY. A CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL MOVE INTO L.A. COUNTY MONDAY MORNING AFTER DAWN OVERSPREAD
THE AREA LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING AND THEN THE CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY. THE TRAJECTORY OF THE RAIN IS PRETTY ODD
AS IT MOVES IN MONSOON STYLE (IT IS NOT A MONSOON) FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. AND THEN MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST. SORT OF THE OPPOSITE OF
MOST JANUARY RAIN. THE LOW WILL BE OFF THE COAST SO THERE WILL BE
OFFSHORE FLOW AND THE DOWNSLOPING ACROSS THE COASTS AND VLYS MAY
VERY WELL LIMIT RAINFALL WEST OF THE MTNS. IN FACT A FEW MDLS SHOW
THE ANTELOPE VLY AS THE WETTEST. IT LOOKS LIKE THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE QUITE VARIABLE WITH ANYWHERE FROM A TENTH TO A HALF OF AN
INCH POSSIBLE. RAINFALL RATES SHOULD NOT BE WORRISOME AND SNOW
LEVELS WILL FOR THE MOST PART BE OVER 7000 FEET. MAX TEMPS WILL
PLUMMET WITH PERHAPS 15 DEGREES OF COOLING MONDAY. TUESDAY TEMPS
WILL BE TRICKY IF THE STORM MOVES OUT A LITTLE QUICKER THAN FCST
THERE COULD BE SOME SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPS...MORE LIKELY THE
CLOUDS AND LOWER HGTS WILL MAKE FOR MAX TEMPS CLOSE TO MONDAYS
VALUES.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...
A LITTLE POP UP RIDGE WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES...DRY WEATHER AND
WARMER TEMPS TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY WILL BE CLOUDIER AND COOLER AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS AND
CLOUDS INCREASE AS SW FLOW SETS UP OVERHEAD.

A LITTLE POS TILT TROF MOVES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. COOLER STILL.
CLOUDIER AND A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN. REALLY THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK
IMPRESSIVE AT THIS TIME.

AN IMPRESSIVELY LARGE UPPER LOW WILL SPIN SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO
THE SSW OF THE AREA SATURDAY. WRAP AROUND NE FLOW FROM THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS TO THE
INTERIOR MTNS AND ANTELOPE VLY WHILE KEEPING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES GOING OVERHEAD FOR THE REST OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...24/1800Z...

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT
NORTH AND MOVE OVER THE AREA. MID/UPPER LEVEL MODERATE EAST WINDS
WILL BECOME MODERATE SOUTHEAST AFTER 26/02Z. INCREASING MID/UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE AFTER 26/04Z. FREEZING LEVEL WAS APPROXIMATELY 13KFT
THIS MORNING AND WILL DIFFER BY MINUS 4KFT MONDAY MORNING. WEAK
MIXED ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH 26/04Z THEN
WEAK OFFSHORE GRADIENT BETWEEN 26/04-26/17Z THEN WEAK TO MODERATE
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT THEREAFTER.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1725Z IS 0 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION TOP IS
AT 1542 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 22 DEGREES C.

KLAX...CURRENT SKY/VSBY VERY LIKELY THROUGH 26/15Z THEN  BKN-OVC
080-120 THEREAFTER 26/15Z.

KBUR...CURRENT SKY/VSBY VERY LIKELY THROUGH 26/12Z THEN OVC 120.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...25/900 AM...

LOCAL EAST GUSTS TO 25 KT FROM POINT MUGU TO VENTURA HARBOR AND NEAR
SHORE WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND THEN
DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF CENTRAL
BAJA WILL MOVE NORTH AND SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST GUST TO AROUND 25 KT
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN PACIFIC HAD GENERATED SEAS
APPROXIMATELY 35 FEET WITHIN A 300-310 DEGREE FETCH RELATIVE TO
VENTURA COUNTY COAST SATURDAY. THE SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
BEGINNING NEXT WEEK THURSDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE/SUKUP
AVIATION...30
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...KITTELL

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