Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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000
FXUS66 KLOX 260620
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1100 PM PDT WED MAY 25 2016

New Aviation Discussion

.SYNOPSIS...

An upper-level trough of low pressure will remain over the region
through early next week. Some weakening of the trough will take
place through Friday and lead to a warming trend, but low pressure
will reform west of the area and bring a cooling trend over the
weekend and into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT-SAT)

Gusty winds continued early this evening along the Central Coast,
SBA County s cst and mtns, mtns of VTU/L.A. Counties and in the
Antelope Vly. Winds were mostly sub-advisory levels, except some
gusts to advisory levels were noted along the SBA s cst and in the
Santa Ynez mtns, where a wind advisory is in effect thru late
tonight. Winds for most areas will gradually diminish thru the
night. Clear to partly cloudy skies prevailed across the region
early this evening. Varying amounts of low clouds are forecast to
develop overnight for the coast/vlys, but overall it appears the
clear to partly cloudy skies will prevail for many areas thru the
night.

An upper level low over sern CA this evening is forecast to slide e
into AZ overnight. A broad mainly nw flow aloft will prevail over
swrn CA Thu thru Fri with slowly rising 500 mb heights. A weak
upper level trof will then develop over srn CA Fri night and Sat.

A marine inversion will develop over the next couple of days. This
will help more organized and extensive night and morning low clouds
and fog to develop for the coast and adjacent vlys Thu night into
Sat morning, with an eddy helping to enhance the marine layer clouds
s of Pt Conception. Otherwise, mostly clear skies are expected over
the forecast area thru Sat. Good onshore flow in the afternoon and
evening hours will prevail on Thu, with gusty sw to nw winds from
the Central Coast to the foothills, mtns and deserts. Weaker onshore
winds are expected Fri and Sat. Gusty nw to n canyon winds are also
expected along the SBA s coast and mtns Thu evening.

Temps across the region will be 5 to 10 deg below normal on Thu,
then warm to near normal to slightly below normal for most areas
for Fri and Sat.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM...(SUN-WED)

Overall, 12Z models continue to exhibit decent synoptic agreement
through the period. At upper levels, trough will linger over the
area on Sunday then a ridge will build in from the west Monday
through Wednesday. Near the surface, weak to moderate onshore flow
will continue.

Forecast-wise, nothing too significant expected through the
period. With the upper ridge building in, the marine inversion
should become stronger and more shallow with less inland
penetration of stratus each night. As for temperatures, a slight
warming trend is expected for most areas.

&&

.AVIATION...

26/0600Z

At 0530Z at KLAX...There was a deep moist layer but there was no
inversion.

Good confidence in TAFs in the desert and in the Central Coast.
Low confidence in TAFs south of Point Conception. There is a 40
percent chance that MVFR cigs will develop between 08Z and 12Z.
Good confidence that low VFR cigs will develop later in the morning
over the vlys.

KLAX...Low confidence in TAF. There is a 40 percent chance that MVFR
cigs will develop between 08Z and 12Z. If cigs do develop they will
likely move in and out before finally dissipating between 17Z and
18Z.

KBUR...Low confidence in TAF. There is a 40 percent chance that MVFR
cigs will develop between 08Z and 12Z. If cigs do develop they will
likely rise to 035 by 16Z and to 050 by 20Z.

&&

.MARINE...25/800 PM

Small Craft Advisories will continue across all the waters
tonight, except for the southern inner zone PZZ655. The remainder
of the nearshore waters will retain west to northwest wind gusts
up to 25 knots through late tonight. The outer waters SCA for
northwest winds will continue through at least mid morning on
Friday. Confidence is 70% that another SCA will be needed for the
northern and western portion of the outer waters Friday afternoon
through the weekend with reduced confidence on Sunday. Short
period seas with dominant period of 6 to 8 seconds will build to 7
to 9 feet through Friday under the gusty northwest winds.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory in effect until 5 AM PDT Thursday For zones
      39-52. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Thursday For
      zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT Friday For
      zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Sirard/RAT
AVIATION...ASR
MARINE...Smith
SYNOPSIS...Sukup

weather.gov/losangeles



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