Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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000
FXUS66 KLOX 010115 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
615 PM PDT FRI OCT 31 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST...

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN...HIGH ELEVATION SNOW...AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. SUNDAY WILL BEGIN A WARMING
TREND AS WE DRY OUT...AND HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW RETURNS
FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...THE ADVERTISED FRONT IS INCHING CLOSER TO
THE AREA BUT IT`S BEEN A SLOW SOUTHERN TREK SO FAR. THE FRONT IS A
GOOD DISTANCE EAST OF THE UPPER LOW AND MAY BE PARTIALLY RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE RATHER LOW RAIN RATES TO OUR NORTH. MODELS STILL CALLING
FOR THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO SWING IN TONIGHT AND REINTENSIFY THE
FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA SO I`M LEAVING THE FORECAST
MOSTLY AS IS.

LITTLE CHANGES TO THE TIMING AS WELL. STILL LOOKING FOR THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE FRONT TO HIT WESTERN SLO/SBA COUNTIES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND SWING THROUGH LA/VENTURA COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER,
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY SPAWN SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS THIS EVENING S OF PT CONCEPTION. THE BULK OF THESE SHOWERS
WILL BE NEAR THE FOOTHILLS BUT CAN`T RULE OUT SOME LIGHT MEASURABLE
RAIN JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE DURING THE PRIME TRICK OR TREATING HOURS.
THOUGH THE SOGGIEST MONSTERS WILL BE FROM ABOUT SBA WEST AND NORTH.

RAIN WILL TAPER OFF BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT. A FAIR AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY ON POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS SATURDAY. THE NAM IS SHOWING A
SECONDARY BURST OF PRECIP ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST SATURDAY MORNING
BUT THE OTHER MODELS ARE MUCH LIGHTER. MTNS SEEM LIKE A GOOD BET FOR
LINGERING SHOWERS WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT BUT NOT REAL CONFIDENT
ELSEWHERE, ESPECIALLY S OF PT CONCEPTION WHICH WILL BE IN A
PRIMARILY WEST TO NW FLOW BY THAT TIME. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON MOST
AREAS SHOULD AT LEAST BE SEEING SOME PEEKS OF SUNSHINE WITH ANY
PRECIP MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE MTNS. COOL AND BREEZY THOUGH WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 25-30 MPH.

MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO STORM TOTAL PRECIP FOR THE EVENT THROUGH
SATURDAY. GENERALLY HALF TO 1 INCH NORTH AND FOOTHILLS/MTNS. QUARTER
TO HALF ELSEWHERE. SNOW AMOUNTS MOSTLY UNDER 3 INCHES AND ABOVE
7500`. SNOW WILL EVENTUALLY FALL BELOW THAT BUT THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP WILL BE PAST BY THAT TIME SO MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. THUS, NO WINTER HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.

LOW LVL FLOW TURNS NORTHERLY SUNDAY WITH JUST SLIGHT WARMING AND
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. WE`LL SEE MORE OF A NORTHEAST COMPONENT
MONDAY AS THE SURFACE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. MAYBE
15-25 NE WINDS MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SRN MTNS AND INTERIOR
VALLEYS. OVERALL ABOUT 5-8 DEGREES OF WARMING FROM SUNDAY BRINGING
HIGHS VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...OFFSHORE FLOW AND A BIG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER NEXT WEEK, PEAKING WEDNESDAY.
PROBABLY STILL NOT ADVISORY LEVEL OFFSHORE WINDS BUT ENOUGH TO BOOST
TEMPS UP WELL INTO THE 80S FOR THE VALLEYS AND MOST OF THE COAST AS
WELL. A LITTLE COOLING FRIDAY AS THE GRADIENTS WEAKEN BUT IT LOOKS
LIKE THE RIDGE WILL KEEP US DRY FOR A WHILE AND MAKE THIS WEEKEND`S
RAIN SEEM LIKE A DISTANT MEMORY.

&&

.AVIATION...01/0010Z...

THE MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 2320Z WAS NEAR 6000 FT DEEP. THE
INVERSION TOP WAS NEAR 6700 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 10 DEGREES C.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 00Z TAFS DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES
WITH TIMING OF LOWERING CIGS TO HI MVFR AND LOW MVFR CATS WHICH
COULD BE OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR SO...AND THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF IFR CIGS AT TIMES TONIGHT AT MOST AIRFIELDS. OTHERWISE...
THERE IS HI CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST AIRFIELDS TONIGHT
INTO SAT MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FOR THE COASTAL
AND VLY AIRFIELDS SAT MORNING AND CONTINUE THRU THE AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONALLY...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SANTA BARBARA AND SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTIES THIS EVENING AND EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.

AT KWJF AND KPMD...VFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED AT TIMES TONIGHT INTO
SAT MORNING...EXCEPT THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR/MVFR CIGS
AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS AT THESE AIRFIELDS
WITH REDUCED VSBY DUE TO BLOWING DUST WILL LINGER THRU ABOUT 01Z
THEN WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SOME BUT REMAIN GUSTY FOR THE MOST PART
THRU SAT.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 00Z TAF DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES WITH TIMING OF LOWERING CIGS TO MVFR WHICH COULD BE
OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR SO...AND THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
IFR CIGS AT TIMES LATER TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THERE IS HI CONFIDENCE
OF MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR BY 14Z AND CONTINUE THRU THE AFTERNOON.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN THE 00Z TAF DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES WITH TIMING OF LOWERING CIGS TO MVFR WHICH COULD BE
OFF PLUS/MINUS AN HOUR OR SO...AND THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
IFR CIGS AT TIMES LATER TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THERE IS HI CONFIDENCE
OF MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR BY 14Z AND CONTINUE THRU THE AFTERNOON...ALTHO THERE
IS ALSO A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS AT TIMES INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...31/200 PM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SMALL CRAFT LEVEL NORTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE...AND SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...LOCAL SMALL
CRAFT LEVEL GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS
THE WESTERN PART OF THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COLD AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL RESULT IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CHANNEL ISLANDS. THE USUAL THUNDERSTORM
HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN...LIGHTNING...AND EVEN WATERSPOUTS.

A 10-12 FOOT NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE OUTER
WATERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...31/200 PM...

THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A MARGINAL HIGH SURF ADVISORY ALONG THE
CENTRAL COAST FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXSPSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW
AVIATION...SIRARD
MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...SETO

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