Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 250540
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1140 PM CST WED DEC 24 2014

.AVIATION...
S/SWLY WINDS WILL INCR AND BECOME GUSTY BY LATE THU MORNG.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KLBB...KPVW AND KCDS
TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. JH
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM CST WED DEC 24 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KLBB...KPVW AND KCDS TERMINALS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. JH

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CST WED DEC 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...
NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MAKING ITS WAY TO SRN UTAH BY LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL RAPIDLY CHANGE UL FLOW FROM NW TO SW
AND TRIGGER DEEPENING OF TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST.  AFTER A
MODERATELY CHILLY NIGHT...THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
BRING INCREASING WINDS ON CHRISTMAS DAY.  CLOUD COVER AND A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN THICKNESS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS JUST A BIT ON THE COOL SIDE
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S.  IN TURN...THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP THE
WINDS FROM GETTING TOO OUT OF HAND.  ALL IN ALL...T`WILL BE A GOOD
DAY TO WATCH ALL THE KIDS TO TRY OUT THEIR NEW ACQUISITIONS IN THE
NEIGHBORHOOD AND MUNCH DOWN ON SOME GOOD VITTLES WITH THE FAMILY.

MERRY CHRISTMAS FROM WFO LUBBOCK.

LONG TERM...
FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE EXTENDED AS MODELS AGREED ON A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS CHRISTMAS NIGHT OPENING UP INTO A
POSITIVE TILTED WAVE AND MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL COUPLE WITH A
COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD TO CREATE THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES
FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. PROFILES INDICATE MOISTENING
FROM THE TOP DOWN BEGINNING AS EARLY AS FRI AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE AS INITIAL LIFT
BEGINS TO EMERGE OUT OF THE ROCKIES. ENERGY HANGING BACK IN THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH MAY PROLONG PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE ROLLING
PLAINS INTO EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL EXPECT VERY LIGHT
PRECIP AMOUNTS THROUGH THE EVENT. SOUNDINGS SHOW A BIT OF A WARM
NOSE INITIALLY THOUGH EXPECT PRECIP TO TRANSITION TO SNOW AS
COLUMN COOLS TO SATURATION. IF VERY DRY MID LEVELS REMAIN IN PLACE
AS ADVERTISED BY THE GFS THEN SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE
COULD DOMINATE FOR THE EVENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
HAVE LEFT FCST FAIRLY SIMPLE AT THE MOMENT WITH SNOW RULING THE
P-TYPE ON THE CAPROCK WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX INITIALLY ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS. FOR TIMING PURPOSES WITH THE FRONT FRI WENT ALONG
WITH THE FASTER ECMWF WHICH DESPITE STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT BRINGS A
SHALLOW BOUNDARY INTO THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS DURING THE DAY.
THIS SETS UP A FAIRLY GOOD TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA ON
FRI. SAT WILL REMAIN COLD AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES
OVERHEAD AND CLOUD COVER SLOWLY EXITS TO THE EAST. SUNDAY WILL BE
A TRANSITION DAY AS FULL MERIDIONAL FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS WESTERN CANADA INTO THE NORTHWEST U.S. SETTING UP A PATTERN
FOR DEEP ARCTIC AIR INTRUSION FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE
YEAR. EXPECT COLD AIR TO ARRIVE EARLIER THAN MOST MED RANGE MODELS
SUGGEST ON MON WITH HIGHS MOST LIKELY STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE
40S. SUB-FREEZING CONDITIONS COULD THEN EXIST POSSIBLE INTO THE
NEW YEAR AS SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES. ITS TOO EARLY TO GET TOO
CONCERNED ABOUT LIGHT PRECIP WITH WARM AIR AND POTENTIAL PAC
MOISTURE OVERRIDING THE COLD DOME BUT DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO KEEP
IN MIND AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT YEAR.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        24  58  30  42  17 /   0   0   0  10  20
TULIA         28  58  35  43  20 /   0   0   0  10  20
PLAINVIEW     29  58  35  50  23 /   0   0   0  10  20
LEVELLAND     28  58  33  57  23 /   0   0   0  10  20
LUBBOCK       30  57  35  57  25 /   0   0   0  10  20
DENVER CITY   27  59  33  61  26 /   0   0   0  10  20
BROWNFIELD    29  58  33  61  26 /   0   0   0  10  20
CHILDRESS     31  60  39  55  28 /   0   0   0   0  30
SPUR          31  59  39  59  28 /   0   0   0  10  30
ASPERMONT     33  61  39  63  30 /   0   0   0  10  30
&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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