Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXUS64 KLUB 271116

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
616 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Primary concern this cycle is concern for fog this morning
especially at KPVW/KLBB where conditions are quite favorable for
fog development. Still, we haven`t seen much so far this morning
on area webcams with the exception of Abernathy (about 10N KLBB).
The expectation is that any fog which develops should burn off
fairly rapidly after sunrise leading to VFR for the remainder of
the period.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 332 AM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016/


Upper level ridge centered over Chihuahua will continue to edge
northeastward toward our part of the state. This will lead to
quiet weather again today once any morning fog burns off. Some
high level cloudiness is making its way across the northern
periphery of the high thanks to T.C. Seymour which should rapidly
dissipate over the next day or two. Despite the proximity of the
high, temperatures will not get too crazy warm though they will be
about 10-15 degrees above seasonal norms. Prospects for fog around
sunrise on Friday look lower than what we`re seeing this morning
though the risk is certainly non-zero.


Our string of above normal highs will continue right through the
weekend thanks to strong upper ridging that will be strongest over
the region on Saturday. Past this, the ridge will finally begin to
flatten and thicknesses will relax early week, allowing for a
gradual fall in temperatures. The real change will not arrive until
mid to late week next week with rain chances possibly returning with
an upper level trough swinging in from the west. However, models are
in great disagreement on this feature...timing, placement and
magnitude...therefore, pulled PoPs back to only slight chance for
the end of the forecast period. Regardless of precipitation, the
first few days of November look to be cooler than the last of
October...yet still slightly above normal. We`ll be heading in
the right direction, though.






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