Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS64 KLUB 272315
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
515 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017
Breezy conditions should abate by 00Z-01Z with focus turning to
LLWS at all three terminals by late this evening thanks to the
presence of a strong low level jet ahead of tomorrow`s wind event.
Winds on Tuesday should be sufficiently stout to bring widespread
blowing dust for KPVW/KLBB. MVFR BLDU is probable and IFR BLDU is
possible Tuesday afternoon.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 336 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017/
A distinct upper level short-wave trough along the southwest U.S.
coast will swing eastward across the plateau and Rockies tonight and
Tuesday. Height fields aloft over the southern plains will tighten,
along with a deepening surface low pressure trough. This will
enhance the wind fields across the area. A breezy night tonight with
increasing high clouds will yield a fairly mild night. The high
clouds will retard surface warming a bit Tuesday, but any mixing
will tap into stronger flow aloft by late morning. Mid level
moisture may be patchy, and tend to diminish during the day as well.
And deep mixing still is expected. This will lead to a very windy
day, potentially at high wind levels especially for areas on the
Caprock. Guidance wind speeds from the 12z cycle were very much
aligned with previous cycles. We are retaining the High Wind Watch.
Also retaining a mention of light sprinkles northwest late in the
day with approach of the upper trough and minor instability and mid
level saturation. Additionally, the areas of blowing dust still are
on track. As noted by the overnight shift, there is potential for
more widespread dust than the previous wind storm. RMcQueen
Quiet weather is expected through the week ahead. After the windy
day on Tuesday, a cold front will drop through the area Wednesday
morning. This will only serve to drop temperatures back down to
near seasonal averages. A surface ridge will slowly slide to the
east on Thursday when another cold front will make its way towards
West Texas but stall short. Lee troughing/cyclogenesis will
reestablish itself this weekend leading to breezy downsloping
winds and warming temperatures. Models are differing on the timing
of a trough moving across the upper midwest early next week. This
trough will send a cold front through the area sometime early next
week but will depend on the timing of this trough.
Please see the Fire Weather Forecast product for additional details
and description of fire weather risks this afternoon, and especially
for Tuesday. A Red Flag warning for the southwest and central South
Plains looks on-track, with Red Flag minutes accumulating to two to
three hours so far. Wind speeds will continue slowly diminishing
late this afternoon. Elevated Fire Danger will also continue
elsewhere this afternoon.
Tuesday has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning area-wide, while a
large area of extremely critical conditions are also now expected
from the Texas South Plains through southeastern New Mexico into
parts of Far West Texas and the trans Pecos. High Winds and very low
humidity, with increasingly receptive fuels shown by rising ERC
values and decreasing fuel dryness also are important
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM CST Tuesday for TXZ021>044.
High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for
Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ033>036-