Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 231922

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
222 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

Today is expected to be a relatively down day for convective
activity compared to the past and future several days despite
height falls from a weakening upper level ridge to the west. Low
level flow is from the east to northeast in the wake of yesterdays
front. This will limit the amount of upslope convection that will
be able to form later this afternoon and evening. The best
chances may be over the southern South Plains and southern Rolling
Plains where some low level convergence and instability still
exists. Better thunderstorm chances will be renewed on Thursday
with a short wave moving across late on Thursday into early Friday
morning. We will also have a more favorable low level upslope
setup with winds more out of the southeast. Lift may be enhanced
by a weak speed max at 250mb moving overhead on Thursday night.
the upper ridge to the west will begin to amplify again on Friday
which may extend nighttime convection chances within north-
northwest flow aloft.

Tropical depression Harvey has redeveloped in the Bay of Campeche
and is expected to continue to strengthen to tropical storm
status. It is expected to make landfall somewhere along the
southeast Texas coast during the day on Friday but is not expected
to move far inland. However, models are showing an area of
subsidence on the northwest side of the tropical system moving
over the Rolling Plains beginning on Sunday. It is still unclear
how this system will interact with potential northwest flow
convection from New Mexico but will most likely limit convection
farther to the east over the Rolling Plains.




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