911
FXUS64 KLUB 191917
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
217 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

The current thinking for the forecast for the remainder of the
afternoon has not changed from the previous shift. Although a strong
dryline exists in the eastern Rolling Plains, temperatures aloft
will likely be too warm for any severe convection in the FA. Large
scale lift with the approaching short wave will be too far north to
provide any meaningful lift locally. A few radar echoes may form
around the Childress area but are not expected to persist. The
dryline will attempt to retreat to the west overnight as the
boundary layer decouples but will run into a surface trough being
dragged through the area from a surface low moving eastward across
the Texas Panhandle. Therefore, areas off the caprock will see warm
overnight temperatures due to higher dew points remaining in place.
Upper level short wave ridging will expand over the area on Monday
with temperatures remaining roughly the same as today. Triple digits
are likely off the caprock with upper 90s on the caprock.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

An upper shortwave will help to lower thicknesses on Tuesday which
will help to cool highs by a few degrees. A more significant cool
down will come Wednesday as the upper trough pushes into the
Northern Plains and pushes a cold front through the region early
Wednesday morning. Temps will quickly warm back into the 90s
Thursday as surface flow returns to the southeast ahead of a
dryline. Convection remains possible Thursday afternoon/evening
across the Rolling Plains as the dryline pushes through the region.
The ECMWF has backed off considerably in regard to convective
chances Thursday with most activity remaining east of the FA. The
GFS still keeps convective initiation across the Rolling Plains but
is also trending further east. If storms do develop, they could be
strong to severe with large hail and strong winds being the primary
threats. Upper flow will become quasi-zonal late week into the
weekend. Models are in agreement with a weak passive front pushing
into the FA Saturday, but the highly modified airmass will do little
in dropping temps.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

VFR will persist through the TAF period. LLWS will develop at KCDS
for a brief period early Monday morning as surface winds relax
while winds just off the deck remain strong.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....51
AVIATION...01