Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KLUB 221130
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
630 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...
A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS IS MOVING THROUGH THE KLBB TERMINAL AS THIS
IS BEING WRITTEN. WHILE THE WFO CEILOMETER INDICATED A BRIEF DROP
IN CEILINGS TO AROUND 900 FT...SUCH LOWERING HAS NOT BEEN SEEN AT
THE AERODROME. THIS BAND SHOULD AFFECT KCDS LATER THIS MORNING AS
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO. SOME TSTM
ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING THOUGH TIMING REMAINS NEBULOUS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
CURVING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM SRN SK THENCE SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES THEN SWWD ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD TODAY.  BROAD AREA OF FAVORABLE DIV-Q
FIELDS FOR LIFT IS MOVING IN FROM ERN NM WHERE SOME LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY ONGOING.  THIS AREA OF LIFT SHOULD REMAIN OVER
THE CWFA MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY BEFORE SLIDING INTO N TX.

DATA SUGGEST THAT ONGOING SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE.  WHILE AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
OVERLY HIGH...GOOD COVERAGE APPEARS TO INDICATE INCREASED POPS AND
HAVE TRENDED TOWARD LIKELY CENTRAL THIS MORNING AND EAST THIS
AFTERNOON.  BEHIND THE TROUGH...SUBSIDENCE QUICKLY SETS IN THUS
HELPING TO DRY OUT THE MID LEVELS AND BRINGING A QUICK END TO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.  AT THIS POINT...THE ROLLING PLAINS MAY BE
DONE SHORTLY AFTER 00Z.  GIVEN MAIN LIFT WELL EAST OF THE
AREA...HAVE PULLED POPS POST 06Z.

LONG TERM...
THE UA TROUGH THAT IS ANTICIPATED TO PROVIDE THE SOUTH PLAINS AND
ROLLING PLAINS WITH WELCOMED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER
TODAY...WILL BE DEPARTING THE REGION EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
CLOUDS AND/OR FOG EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...BEFORE SUBSIDENCE TAKES
PLACE COURTESY OF AN APPROACHING UA RIDGE FROM THE WEST. THE
TRANSLATION OF THE UA RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY THRU
EARLY WEEKEND WILL RESULT IN DRYER CONDITIONS...INCREASING HEIGHT
FIELDS THUS SUGGESTING WARMER TEMPS ARE IN STORE /LOWER TO UPPER
80S/. BY SUNDAY THE AFOREMENTIONED UA RIDGE WILL BE SHIFTING EAST OF
THE FA THANKS TO AN BROAD LOW MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS THE NW PACIFIC.
LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL PROMOTE BREEZY S-SW SFC WINDS WHICH AID IN
KEEPING TEMPS IN THE 80S.

THEREAFTER...LONG TERM SOLUTIONS DIFFER WRT TO THE EXACT TRAJECTORY
OF THE PACIFIC DISTURBANCE. THE GFS PROPAGATES THE DISTURBANCE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
MONDAY. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CWA ON
TUESDAY...THOUGH DRY ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL NEED TIME TO
MOISTEN UP WHICH APPEARS TO OCCUR BY TUESDAY NIGHT PER THE
GFS...WITH LIGHT QPF SIGNALS NOTED MORE SO ACROSS THE EXTREME LOW
ROLLING PLAINS. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND HAS THE DISTURBANCE AND
THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN PRECIP MORE SO ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS GIVEN ITS DEPICTION OF A QUICKER RECOVERY IN
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTENING. MAINTAINING BELOW MENTIONABLE 10-13 PERCENT
POPS OFF THE CAPROCK APPEARS VALID AT THIS TIME. WHAT IS AGREED UPON
IS THE RETURN OF BELOW NORM TEMPS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        70  51  78  50  83 /  40  10   0   0   0
TULIA         72  55  79  52  85 /  60  20  10   0   0
PLAINVIEW     72  54  78  52  83 /  60  20  10   0   0
LEVELLAND     71  54  78  53  83 /  70  20  10   0   0
LUBBOCK       72  55  79  54  84 /  60  20  10   0   0
DENVER CITY   72  51  78  54  83 /  70  20  10   0   0
BROWNFIELD    72  54  79  54  84 /  70  20  10   0   0
CHILDRESS     78  59  82  58  87 /  70  30  10   0   0
SPUR          75  57  81  57  86 /  60  30  10   0   0
ASPERMONT     78  59  82  58  86 /  60  30  10   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/26





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.