Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 271156
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
656 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions with light surface winds will prevail for the next
24 hours. However, there is a chance of afternoon and evening
t-storms at any of the terminals, mainly from approx. 17 UTC
through 01 UTC. Gusty and erratic winds will accompany any t-storm
activity.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 314 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2016/

SHORT TERM...
It was slightly cooler at most locations on Tuesday, and we expect
another several degrees of cooling today as upper ridging shifts
west and a slightly more moist airmass moves in from the east. High
temperatures will be mainly in the 90s, pretty close to normal for
late July. The south plains of West Texas will be under north to
northeast flow aloft today, south of a shortwave moving through the
central plains and west of weak cyclonic circulation over SE TX and
SW LA. Water vapor imagery appears to show a weak mid-level shear
axis stretching from north Texas through eastern Okla and some of
the high-res guidance suggests that we could see some showers
develop just east or northeast of the forecast area early this
morning as there will be some weak isentropic ascent of the very
moist airmass in that area. Otherwise, we`ll rely on the daytime
heating and any areas of subtle convergence to gin up some t-storm
activity today. All indications are that the activity will be pretty
spotty. With the weak forcing it is difficult to pinpoint any
preferred areas for t-storm development. On average, there may be
slightly better chances for northwest portions of the area in the
early afternoon, with the activity slowly progressing southward into
the southern South Plains by late in the day. As we`ve seen the past
two days, some very localized heavy rain will be possible along with
gusty winds along t-storm outflows. Storms should die out quickly
this evening, leaving a quiet and mild night across the area. After
midnight, we`ll look to the north to see if a t-storm complex can
roll southward through portions of the panhandles and western
Okla.

LONG TERM...
More widespread convection chances for later this week look less
optimistic with the latest iteration of model runs. Mid level
moisture on the east side of the ridge will slowly be moving south
out of the region during the day on Thursday. We will still have a
low level theta-e ridge oriented southwest to northeast across the
southern South Plains and southern Rolling Plains. This will
continue to yield between 500-1000 J/kg of mixed layer
instability. As seen the past few days, this will likely continue
to fuel scattered storms on Thursday afternoon and early evening.
Late on Thursday into early Friday, models are in agreement in
depicting a short wave moving out of eastern Colorado into the
High Plains. However, much of this activity will likely miss the
region. Outflow boundaries may come more into play with this
activity by early Friday morning.

The upper ridge will reposition itself over the weekend to the
northeast of West Texas effectively shutting down convection
chances and raising temperatures a few more degrees persisting
into the middle of next week. Progressive short wave troughs
moving near the US/Canada border will garner a return to lee
surface troughing and breezy surface winds next week. By midweek,
the upper ridge will continue moving east and we may be able to
see a return to monsoon moisture and convection sneaking into West
Texas from the west.

&&

.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

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