Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 030828
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
328 AM CDT WED JUN 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD FROM
NRN MEXICO INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER FOR OUR
WEATHER TODAY. MID-LVL HEIGHTS AND TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO WARM
SLIGHTLY AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING AT THE
SURFACE AND ALSO SQUASH ANY MOIST CONVECTION TRYING TO DEVELOP ALONG
A SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE ACROSS THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. ON TUESDAY...SEVERAL WEST TEXAS MESONET STATIONS AS WELL
AS THE CHILDRESS ASOS REPORTED HIGHS OF 90F OR 91F...AND WE/LL LOOK
FOR MORE STATIONS TO GET UP IN THE 90S TODAY...LIKELY INCLUDING
LUBBOCK WHICH LAST REACHED 90 DEGREES ON APRIL 7TH. IT WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR AND MILD TONIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO
MIDDLE 60S.

.LONG TERM...
MODELS ARE INDICATING A STRONGER SIGNAL FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED
CONVECTION FOR THURSDAY EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL SHIFT A LITTLE TO THE EAST
WHICH MAY ALLOW CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WIND FLOW ALOFT WILL STILL BE
WEAK ENOUGH SO THAT CHANCES OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LOW. ALTHOUGH
MODELS DO INDICATE CONVECTION INITIATION...THERE WILL LIKELY BE
SOME CAPPING TO OVERCOME BEFORE THIS OCCURRENCE.

THE UPPER RIDGE NOW TO THE EAST WILL REBUILD BACK FARTHER WEST
OVER THE WEEKEND PUTTING THE KIBOSH ON ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. THE RIDGE WILL ATTEMPT TO BREAK DOWN A
BIT FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE FROM A PACIFIC
TROPICAL SYSTEM MAY BE DRAWN INTO THE REGION AROUND THE
DEAMPLIFIED RIDGE POSSIBLY BRINGING PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE
AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        93  58  92  62 /  10  10  20  20
TULIA         91  63  91  63 /   0   0  10  10
PLAINVIEW     90  64  90  63 /   0   0  10  10
LEVELLAND     93  64  92  64 /  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       91  66  90  64 /   0   0  10  10
DENVER CITY   94  64  93  63 /  10  10  20  20
BROWNFIELD    94  64  92  64 /   0   0  10  10
CHILDRESS     91  68  91  66 /   0   0   0   0
SPUR          91  65  91  65 /   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     91  67  91  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

33/01


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