Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 071739 AAC
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1239 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.AVIATION...
MVFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT KLBB AND KCDS CURRENTLY WHILE KPVW
STILL IS SOCKED IN WITH IFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT CEILINGS TO BOUNCE
BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT ALL THREE SITES FOR
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON BUT REMAIN IN THE MVFR RANGE AFTERWARDS.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD ALSO BE COMING TO AN END AT ALL THREE TAF
SITES BEFORE 21Z AND INTENSITY SHOULD ALSO IMPROVE AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SO THAT VISIBILITIES REMAIN ABOVE 3SM. WITH
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE AIR...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF IFR
TO LIFR CONDITIONS AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY AT ALL THREE TAF
SITES. FORECAST MODELS DO NOT SHOW THIS DEVELOPING BUT WE
TYPICALLY SEE IFR/LIFR WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND AND HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE AIR WHICH WE SHOULD HAVE IN PLACE TOMORROW
MORNING. AFTER SUNRISE...EXPECT A SLOW BUT GRADUAL INCREASE FROM
IFR/LIFR TO MVFR WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF VFR BY LATE MORNING AT
ALL THREE TAF SITES.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/

UPDATE...
HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS SHIFTED EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA NEAR
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PLENTY OF LIGHTER PRECIPITATION FOLLOWING
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA IN PARTICULAR...BUT EVEN
ACROSS THE WEST WE ARE SEEING A GRADUAL INCREASE NOW IS LIGHT
SHOWERS. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN EXTREMELY MOIST AND AS THE COOLER
SURFACE RIDGE PRESSES SOUTHWARD WILL AID IN LIFT TO GENERATE
SHOWERS. STILL...WE HAVE TRIMMED SHOWER CHANCES SOMEWHAT FROM
PREVIOUS AS REMAINING ACTIVITY TODAY FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD NOT
PROVE TOO SIGNIFICANT. PLAN TO ALLOW REMAINING COUNTIES IN THE
FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE AT 12Z. RM

AVIATION...
MOIST AND COOL POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDING SOUTHWARD...HIGHLY UNUSUAL FOR JULY BUT IT IS
HAPPENING. AREAS OF FOG AND IFR OR EVEN LIFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS
MORNING SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR DURING THE AFTERNOON.
APPEARS PROBABLY THAT LOW CLOUDS MAY HOLD THROUGH THE DAY AND
WELL INTO THE NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE TO INDICATE
EXPLICITLY IN THE FUTURE TAF PERIODS...SO HAVE KEPT OUT FOR NOW.
RMCQUEEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE NOSING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...BENEATH VERY MOIST MONSOONAL FLOW AND
WITHIN A WEAK SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH. RESULT SHOULD BE
OCCASIONAL LIGHTER SHOWERS FOR THE MOST PART THAN EXPERIENCED
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. EXCEPTION STILL MAY
BE A BAND OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SHIFTING EASTWARD THROUGH OUR
SOUTHEAST ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING. WE HAVE TRIMMED OUT MOST
CENTRAL AND WESTERN COUNTIES FROM THE FLOOD WATCH...WHILE
RETAINING THOSE IN THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH 12Z. IF NEEDED WE WILL
EXTEND THE WATCH PERHAPS A FEW HOURS BEYOND 12Z BUT WILL NOT
ADDRESS THAT ISSUE UNTIL AT LEAST 11Z THIS MORNING. SOLUTIONS SEEM
TO BE STRUGGLING WITH A POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT OF A HEAVY BAND
LATER TODAY ACROSS OUR EAST OR SOUTHEAST. PLACEMENT OF THE MAIN
RAIN BAND SHOULD CONTINUE TO EDGE TO THE EAST. ALTHOUGH WE DO NOT
BUY TOTALLY INTO MODEL SOLUTION... TODAYS VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL
NEED LITTLE EXCUSE TO PRECIPITATE. SO MINOR CHANGES ALL IN ALL FOR
TODAY. BY TONIGHT WE MAY SEE ANOTHER MODEST INCREASE IN MONSOONAL
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA PERHAPS SUPPORTING CHANCE MENTION. BUT DO NOT
SEE NEED FOR HIGHLIGHT/S. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
THE UA SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS PROVIDING THE AREA WITH INCREASED
LARGE SCALE ASCENT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE EXITING THE REGION TO
THE EAST BY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. DESPITE WANING UL
SUPPORT...MODEL SOLUTIONS EXHIBITED QPF SIGNALS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE ROLLING PLAINS TOMORROW MORNING-EARLY AFTN...NEAREST TO THE
SEWRD SAGGING COLD FRONT THAT IS PROJECTED TO BECOME QUASI-
STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS TOMORROW MORNING.
IF THIS PROVES TO BE TRUE...LINGERING STORMS OFF THE CAPROCK IS A
POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE
SWRLY...AND AT THE SFC AN ENSUING UPSLOPE SFC REGIME AND THUS
PWATS AOA 1.60 INCHES OCCURRING ACROSS THE SAID THE AREA. STORMS
COULD RETURN TO THE SOUTH PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCE WITHIN A SHARPENING SW FLOW ALOFT TRANSLATES EWRD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE NORTH
OF THE AREA...HENCE MODELS SHOWING THE HIGHEST QPF AMOUNTS
THERE...THOUGH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND PERHAPS LINGERING OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COUPLED WITH A DECENT UL SUPPORT SUGGESTS
HOLDING ONTO MENTIONABLE POPS BEING WARRANTED.

500 MB HEIGHT FIELDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK...AS THE UA RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE SERN CONUS
RETROGRADES A BIT TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER...SWRLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL PREVAIL...AND BE SHARPEST ACROSS THE FAR WRN ZONES WHICH
WILL ALLOW MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO BEND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WRN AND
NRN ZONES THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY. BY THE WEEKEND...WITH THE UA
RIDGE BEING PRETTY MUCH OVERHEAD...THIS WILL PUT THE KIBOSH ON THE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE BEING ABLE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN NEW MEXICO. AN ADDITIONAL UPTICK IN 500 MB
HEIGHT FIELDS AND 850 MB TEMPS IS WHY MOS GUIDANCE PROJECTS TEMPS TO
WARM FROM THE 80S TOMORROW TO THE 90S BY LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        70  58  84  64 /  30  20  20  30
TULIA         69  59  82  66 /  50  30  20  20
PLAINVIEW     70  61  82  66 /  60  30  20  20
LEVELLAND     76  61  84  67 /  50  30  20  20
LUBBOCK       75  62  83  68 /  60  40  20  20
DENVER CITY   77  62  86  67 /  50  30  20  20
BROWNFIELD    77  62  85  68 /  50  30  20  20
CHILDRESS     75  64  83  70 /  80  60  40  10
SPUR          76  64  85  69 /  80  60  40  10
ASPERMONT     82  67  87  72 /  80  60  40  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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