Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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405
FXUS64 KLUB 192332
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
532 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

.AVIATION...
Surface winds tapering early this evening, with end of visibility
reduction from blowing dust at KLBB, while thick cirrus clouds
pass overhead. Gusty southwest winds will still take another hour
or two to taper this evening. Unclear if surface flow will be
mixed enough to avoid low level wind shear concerns overnight as a
low level jet will be evolving again. Will be following this
trend through the evening. A shortwave disturbance will skim by
to the north this evening, cirrus clouds will diminish gradually
overnight. Surface trough will be a bit more relaxed early
Tuesday, but still looking for deep mixing to lead to some breezes
and perhaps more gusty southwest winds Tuesday, but unlikely as
strong as today. Frontal boundary hung up across the northern
Texas Panhandle this evening will edge southward through KCDS
likely by mid or late Tuesday afternoon and KPVW and KLBB late
tomorrow evening. VFR expected to dominate the next 24 hours.
RMcQueen

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 307 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Winds will begin to ease around sunset tonight but remain out of
the southwest most of the day tomorrow keeping temperatures above
the normal but cooler than today. A backdoor cold front pushes
southwest out of Oklahoma through the Rolling Plains and into the
South Plains tomorrow night as surface high pressure builds over
the central and norther Plains. Unfortunately the cold front will
keep any deeper moisture from the Gulf of Mexico to our east and
south east.

Despite deeper moisture not reaching our latitude we will see
dewpoints peak in the 40s to low 50s late Tuesday into early
Wednesday, followed by dropping temperatures behind the cold
front. This will set up the possibility for light rain, light
drizzle or even light freezing drizzle early Wednesday morning
followed by a dreary cloudy rest of the day on Wednesday with
temps above freezing in the afternoon which would result in light
rain or drizzle for the remainder of the day. Thursday morning may
see an expanded area and increased chances of freezing rain or
freezing drizzle overnight through mid-morning. Winds begin to
back to a more southerly component bringing temperatures above
freezing again by late morning to early afternoon again on
Thursday. Highs on Wednesday will remain in the 40s with the FROPA
early in the morning and slowly begin to rebound by Thursday
afternoon but still struggle to get above the low 50s in most
spots. Warmer drier air returns for the end of the week into the
weekend with occasionally breezy afternoon winds and temperatures
mainly in the mid 60s into next week.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CST this evening for TXZ021-022-027-028-
033.

Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CST this evening for TXZ021>023.

&&

$$

99/05/99



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