Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 091742

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1142 AM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

MVFR ceilings continue early this afternoon at KPVW and KLBB.
These should improve to VFR within a couple of hours of issuance.
Next concern is redevelopment overnight of low clouds. Latest
guidance suggests near saturated air within warm advection regime
as flow above the surface remains southwest. Enough lift
anticipated to aid return of IFR/MVFR cigs after midnight. Surface
moisture values look too low for surface-based restrictions.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 402 AM CST Fri Dec 9 2016/

Surface ridging will slide east today with surface lee troughing
quickly reestablishing itself by the afternoon. Only major
contention in the short term will be the low stratus and how long it
hangs around the region today. This very thin layer of moisture will
likely stick around for most of the day well into the afternoon.
Afternoon temperatures will likely be affected by this cloud cover
although temperatures were not forecast to be that warm today.
Temperatures well below seasonal averages are still anticipated. For
tonight, the NAM is particularly aggressive in bringing back very
low stratus or even freezing fog. However, other model guidance is
generally not showing this and conditions will not be as favorable
for the development of fog on Saturday morning.

Zonal westerly flow aloft over the weekend will promote surface
troughing and a decent warmup. This may be limited perhaps a bit
by periods of high clouds as several waves come dashing through
the flow; but breezy and above normal temperatures is on the way.

A stronger wave cruising the northern Plains Sunday will shove a
front southward into the region. Timing a bit tricky although the
bulk of information holds passage off until late Sunday afternoon
or evening. Until then, breezes over the Panhandle and northern
South Plains will blow. A brief cool down will occur Sunday night
and early Monday. But generally warmer than normal into Tuesday
or so should stay.

The next event will be arrival of potentially sharp Arctic air
Wednesday-ish as a Polar low dips west and then to the south of
Hudson Bay. ECMWF is now better aligned with the GFS showing much
colder air all the way into west Texas again. Blends still are
retaining memories of lesser consistency so probably not dropping
temperatures cold enough next Wednesday and Thursday. Our highs
were dropped lower than blends, but still close enough to our
neighbors so as to not generate high levels of inconsistency. Be
aware for now of the potential for another dump of Arctic air and
that temperatures next Wednesday and Thursday may turn colder
than this forecast. RMcQueen




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