Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 271707
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1207 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

.AVIATION...
VFR is expected through the TAF period. However, a weak cold front
has moved farther south than expected resulting in a variable wind
direction at all TAF sites. But speeds are anticipated to be
light.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 406 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Subtropical high along the TX-NM border was in the throes of decline
this morning following clusters of storms parading the western
Panhandle since Wednesday evening. Southernmost outflow from this
activity was pushing into the NW South Plains at 3 AM, but was
having a difficult time spurring additional precip as it nears an
east-to-west mid-level ridge axis. Precip in our NW zones should
slowly wane this morning as ascent becomes more focused farther
north near a cold front currently exiting the OK Panhandle. This
front is likely to stall near the I-40 corridor by midday as it
encounters more resistance from a hot and well-mixed boundary layer.
Barring any stray outflows that can loft parcels to their LFCs, the
greatest storm potential looks to stay just north of our CWA through
tonight.

On Friday, the upper high is still progged to redevelop eastward
while occupying much of the forecast area. East of this dome of hot
air, the surface front near I-40 is shown to re-orient NW-SE as
surface ridging edges south through Oklahoma. Prospects for
convection will again align close to this front, but QPF signals
with such weak forcing are very much at odds among all guidance.
Little change to this high`s position and intensity are evident come
Saturday, however the surface front will backdoor through much of
our domain before sunset ahead of increasingly moist upslope winds.
Despite mean subsidence aloft, low level forcing could augment this
otherwise unfavorable pattern and breed storms. This theme trends
more favorable by Sunday and beyond as the upper high retreats into
NM and opens the door to increasingly active NW flow. With the
surface boundary largely intact and paralleling the mean flow, the
pattern from Sun night through midweek still looks supportive for
periodic MCSs with heavy rain episodes to boot given rich PWATs of
1.5 to 2 inches. Opted to boost Superblend PoPs moreso at night
for Mon and Tue given our climatology of NW flow events.
Otherwise, highs should easily cool to near or below normal next
week on moist SE winds, increased clouds and hopefully moist
soils.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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