Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 032022
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
322 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
WILL STEER ACROSS THE RED RIVER INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS BY EARLY
THIS EVENING. MID LEVEL LIFT WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MOST ABUNDANT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...PERHAPS STILL IN THE
EARLY EVENING ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES. IMPULSE PERFORMING ALL-IN-
ALL AS EXPECTED DOING THE BEST WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
TO INGEST...BUT STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO THUNDER
DEVELOPMENT. A WEAK FRONT MASKED BY VARIOUS OUTFLOWS EVENTUALLY WILL
STEER LOW LEVEL FLOW NORTHERLY BUT SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT...EVEN
LIGHTER BY DARK. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL
FOLLOW AS SKIES QUICKLY CLEAR.

WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A SHARP UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EDGING INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. STILL LIGHT NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND A COOL START TO
THE DAY BUT WITH FULL SUNSHINE WILL RECOVER TO AROUND NORMAL VALUES
LATE AFTERNOON...IF NOT EVEN A NOTCH ABOVE. RMCQUEEN

.LONG TERM...
UPPER RIDGING WILL KICK OFF THE EXTENDED...PROVIDING WARM AND DRY
WEATHER MID-LATE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER BACK TO THE WARM
SIDE OF AVERAGE WITH HIGHS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TOPPING OUT IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY YIELD TO A LARGE UPPER LOW THAT IS
EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER/NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY 00Z
SATURDAY. RETURN MOISTURE WILL INITIALLY BE RATHER
LIMITED...KEEPING RAIN CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE AND CONFINED TO OR
WEST OF THE TX/NM LINE BY LATE FRIDAY. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN
ADVANCE OF THE WESTERN STORM SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS WEST TEXAS...STARTING FRIDAY AND INCREASING
FURTHER INTO SATURDAY. EVENTUALLY MOISTURE WILL IMPROVE MORE
NOTABLY ON SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF A DEVELOPING DRYLINE...THOUGH
THE MAGNITUDE OF THE MOISTURE RETURN REMAINS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION
AS THE GULF DOES NOT REALLY START TO OPEN UP IN EARNEST UNTIL
SATURDAY. REGARDLESS...AT LEAST MODEST INSTABILITY /MUCAPE AOA
1000 J/KG/ AND FAIRLY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF
40-55 KNOTS WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG
AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE. CURRENTLY IT APPEARS THE DRYLINE WILL BE
SITUATED SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE WESTERN OR CENTRAL ZONES BY PEAK
HEATING ON SATURDAY.

THE BEST STORM CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD ON
SUNDAY...LIKELY INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS AND PERHAPS EVEN EAST OF
THE CWA...AS A PORTION OF THE WESTERN TROUGH/LOW LIFTS INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. WEST OF THE DRYLINE GUSTY...DRY AND
SEASONABLY WARM AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE CAPROCK. WINDS COULD EVEN
PUSH TOWARD ADVISORY LEVELS COMPLETE WITH SOME BLOWING DUST AND
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER...THOUGH FUELS MAY MITIGATE THE
OVERALL FIRE DANGER. THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY HANG OUT JUST
CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP A RISK OF STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST
WITH DRIER WEATHER AREA-WIDE. UNTIL THE TROUGH DOES PASS...BREEZY
TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION. WE HAVE ADJUSTED
FORECAST WIND SPEEDS UPWARD DURING THE FRIDAY-SUNDAY TIME
FRAME...BUT OTHERWISE GENERALLY ACCEPTED THE BLENDED GUIDANCE. DRY
WEATHER AND NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CLOSE OUT THE EXTENDED
FORECAST NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

05/23



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