Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXUS64 KLUB 020938
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
438 AM CDT SAT AUG 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...
STAGNANT NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS INTACT TODAY ALL THE WHILE A 700MB
HIGH POISED ALONG THE KANSAS/COLORADO BORDER CONTINUES EXPANDING
SOUTHWARD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS STORY WAS ACROSS THE WESTERN
PERMIAN BASIN WHERE NEWD-MOVING VIRGA AND LIGHT SHOWERS WERE FOUND
NEAR THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN INVERTED TROUGH IN WEAK SWLY
SHEAR...BUT THIS EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY SHOULD FAIL TO MAKE
FURTHER HEADWAY NORTHEAST AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE 700MB RIDGE AXIS.
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SUBSIDENCE TODAY WILL SLOWLY RID US OF OUR
STUBBORN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND ALSO NUDGE THICKNESSES UPWARD...BUT
OPTED TO KEEP OUR COUNTIES BORDERING NM A BIT BELOW MOS AS THESE
AREAS WILL BE THE LAST TO ESCAPE THE THICKER MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...
RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN NEAR THE TX/NM STATE LINE THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE GRADUALLY BREAKING DOWN A BIT AND SLIDING
TO TH SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO START TO SLOWLY
CLIMB EACH DAY. WENT AHEAD AND PULLED PRECIP CHANCES OUT FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT LEFT THEM IN FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REESTABLISH OVER THE REGION AND A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF MOVES OVER THE REGION. COLD FRONT
WILL BE STALLED ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO INTO THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE WHICH MAY HELP STORMS TO INITIATE AND MOVE TOWARDS THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...DID PULL POPS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST AS THE MODELS NO LONGER HAVE THE FRONT MAKING
A STRONG SOUTHWESTWARD PUSH INTO THE PANHANDLE. ALSO...RIDGE
STARTS MOVING BACK EAST STARTING THURSDAY WHICH WILL BRING
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION AND STIFLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AGAIN.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        83  60  86  62  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         86  61  86  60  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     85  61  84  62  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     85  62  85  64  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       88  64  86  65  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   86  62  87  63  87 /  10   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    87  63  87  64  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     89  65  90  67  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          90  63  89  65  90 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     91  67  91  68  92 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93/14





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