Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 310056
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
756 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016

.UPDATE...
Quick update primarily to expand likely PoPs eastward a bit
through the evening hours given recent radar trends. Other
sensible fields were also adjusted in accord with recent
observations and expected trends. Pockets of very heavy rain
continue as the primary concern this evening. The Slaton has
recorded an impressive 3.80 inches today, most of which fell since
5:40 pm. Will will continue to monitor radar trends with addition
flood highlights a possibility.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 548 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016/

AVIATION...
Thunderstorms remain possible this evening at each of the
terminals. Model consensus suggests activity should trend
downwards during the overnight hours with redevelopment Wednesday
afternoon with daytime heating and persistent deep moisture over
the region. Other issue is potential for IFR or MVFR ceilings
late tonight. Moist air mass in place with light winds points to
that potential, and if convective activity dissipates as expected
chances for restrictions likely to increase. Afternoon model runs
seem to favor KPVW and KLBB over KCDS at this time. Will trend
TAFs that direction while next issuance at 06z will have the
opportunity to fine tune.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 320 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016/

SHORT TERM...
Rain chances will continue through tomorrow as the weak trough to
our west slowly fills and upper-level jet energy starts to shift off
to the northeast of the forecast area.  Ample moisture will remain
across the region tonight and precipitable water values look to stay
between 1.5 and 2.0 inches which may be close to or just above the
maximum values we see this time of year.  A lack of well-defined
surface features has prevented organized areas of convection from
developing and most of the storms have been scattered in nature.  A
good outflow boundary has developed from convection that pushed
across the central South Plains around 1 pm and this may have
stabilized the airmass behind it.  However, skies have also cleared
thanks to the stabilization of the boundary layer and we are already
seeing another round of storms developing near the edge of the
Caprock.  Steering flow is a bit stronger today and storms have been
moving off to the west northwest at a decent pace to keep rainfall
amounts from becoming too much of an issue.  Showers and storms
across Lubbock briefly had between 2-3 inch per hour rainfall rates
but total amounts so far have been around one half of an inch, so
the threat of widespread flooding looks to be somewhat low.  That
being said, locally heavy rainfall over areas that have received
several inches of rain or over cities/urban areas will still result
in localized flooding during the heaviest rainfall rates.

Will continue with likely PoPs across the Caprock tonight into
tomorrow with chance PoPs across the Rolling Plains, and take PoP
amounts down a bit in the morning before ramping them back up a bit
in the afternoon.  Atmosphere will be a bit more stable in the
morning which should limit coverage but daytime heating will
increase instability which should result in greater coverage in the
afternoon.  Low temperatures tomorrow morning will remain rather
mild and close to what we have seen the past couple of mornings.
High temperatures will depend on the cloud cover and coverage of
precipitation once again.  The Rolling Plains may see temps slightly
warmer as coverage of precipitation in the models is a bit less than
in previous days.

Jordan

LONG TERM...
Upper level ridging will continue to be in place Thursday. Despite
this, rain chances will continue into early as upper level moisture
stays in place. Lift will be provided by an upper level disturbance.
We should see a drying patter as we get into the weekend as the
upper level ridge pushes off to our northeast allowing southwesterly
flow to move in overhead. While the upper levels will dry fairly
quickly, the low levels will remain somewhat moist as surface winds
will be mainly out of the south. A lee trof will set up during the
period and allow winds to be on the (lightly) breezy side during the
weekend, 10-15 mph. Temps will be on the upward trend starting this
weekend as well due to skies giving way to sunshine. We should see
highs reach in to the upper 80s across the caprock and the low to
mid 90s across the Rolling Plains. Lows will pretty much be stagnant
through next week, low 60s to around 70, as surface moisture remains
in place.

&&

.LUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

74/23



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