Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 180417
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1017 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

.AVIATION...
Although VFR is expected through the TAF period a very strong cold
front will move through around daybreak on Saturday morning. This
will shift winds to the north with sustained speeds close to 30kt
for much of the morning and early part of the afternoon. Wind
speeds will not decrease until late in the afternoon or early
evening.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 306 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2017/

DISCUSSION...
We are in the midst of a record warm/hot mid-November day. Both
Lubbock and Childress have already broken their record highs thanks
in part to gusty and dry downslope winds beneath fast westerly flow
aloft. As of 2030Z Lubbock had already reached 88 degrees and
Childress had hit 92 degree, easily breaking their previous daily
records which both sat at 85 degrees and were set in 1966. The
warmth, combined with dry and breezy to windy conditions were also
resulting in elevated to critical fire weather (read more on this in
the Fire Weather Section below). The winds will drop off near
sunset, but remain elevated enough overnight to keep temperatures
mild most of the night. This will change early Saturday as a storm
system currently moving through the Intermountain West emerges over
the High Plains and allows surface ridging to spill southward
through the South Plains. A tight pressure gradient and 3-hour
pressure rises on the order of 8-12 mb will support post-frontal
northerly winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 45 mph for a period
Saturday morning into early afternoon, before gradually decreasing
through the late afternoon. Given this, we have issued a wind
advisory for the entire CWA from 11Z to 21Z. In addition to the
winds, after a mild overnight with lows only in the 40s and 50s,
temperatures will struggle to rise more than 10 degrees above the
morning lows thanks to strong cold air advection.

The surface high will settle squarely over the region Saturday night
providing nearly ideal radiational cooling conditions. The light
winds, clear skies and dry air will allow lows to bottom out in the
20s on the Caprock with lower 30s in the Rolling Plains. Return
southerly flow and those same dry conditions along with sunny skies
will then allow highs to recover into the upper 50s and lower 60s
Sunday afternoon.

A rather quiet week will follow as the flow amplifies next week. A
shortwave trough will dive southeastward over West Texas Tuesday
downstream of the building western ridge, but aside from a brief
increase in mid-upper clouds and another FROPA, it will likely be a
dry passage. However, highs will dip from the upper 60s and lower
70s on Monday in advance of this wave to 50s and low 60s behind the
wave by Wednesday. Warmer conditions will follow for the end of the
week as the western ridge translates slowly this way though a couple
of weak extensions of surface ridging may briefly try to nose in
from the north. Regardless, it looks to remain dry through next week.

FIRE WEATHER...
Record warmth (temperatures in the 80s and lower 90s) have combined
with dry (RH values of 8 to 15 percent) and breezy to windy
conditions to result in elevated to critical fire weather this
afternoon. The strongest winds have been centered across the Texas
Panhandle where 120+ minutes of Red Flag conditions have already
been observed, while winds in the 15 to 20 mph range have limited
Red Flag minutes further south. Regardless, these elevated to
critical fire weather conditions will persist through around sunset
until winds quickly drop off. Given this, we have maintained the Red
Flag Warning for the southern Texas Panhandle and central and
northern South Plains through 6 pm, with a fire danger statement for
the remainder of the CWA until 00z.

Tomorrow will bring more wind area wide, but winds will be from
the north behind an early day front. Temperatures will be about 30
degrees cooler than today, which will keep RH values above
critical levels.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 5 AM to 3 PM CST Saturday for TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

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