Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 241148
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
548 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2017

.AVIATION...
Southwesterly surface winds at 12 UTC will some around to the west
and increase through the morning becoming sustained around 24 to
30 kts at all terminals. At this time, we don`t expect a AWW to be
issued for sustained 30 kts at KLBB but it could be needed for a
few hours in the afternoon. Some light BLDU is also possible in the
afternoon but we have not included in the TAF as categorical vsby
reductions are not expected. The winds will start to decrease
around 23 UTC but should remain breezy for the remainder of the
TAF period. A cold front will bring a northwest wind shift into
KCDS toward the end of the TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 325 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2017/

SHORT TERM...
Water vapor imagery and observations early Tuesday morning show a
sprawling upper trough across the western CONUS with circulation
centers off central California and over Wyoming. A strong mid-level
jet stretches from northwest MX northeast into the southern plains.
At the surface, a low is located across eastern New Mexico with a
Pacific-type front extending southwestward through central and
southwest NM.

These features will generally shift east today. The 850-700mb speed
max will just be exiting our area by around 18 UTC, with wind speeds
of 30-40 kt remaining in that layer for the remainder of the day.
This will support a moderately breezy/windy day by West Texas
standards. We expect winds will be generally sustained around 25 to
35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. The strongest winds and gusts will
likely be across the far southern Texas Panhandle. A Wind Advisory
has been issued for all but the southern Rolling Plains from 11 am
to 6 pm. The gusty winds will likely loft some blowing dust across
the Caprock but the dust shouldn`t get very thick. The downsloping
west winds and dry air will allow temps to warm despite some cold
advection arriving with the Pacific front. Guidance has been
trending warmer in recent iterations and we nudged highs up to near
60s in the northwest to lower 70s in the southeast.

The wind will come down around sunset but remain modestly breezy
through the night as a tight pressure gradient lingers across the
area. The wind will turn to the northwest and continued cool and dry
advection along with mostly clear skies should result in cooler
overnight temperatures. Lows will range from the mid 20s northwest
to mid 30s southeast.

LONG TERM...
Rather quiet and dry weather is featured in the extended. The
wind-maker today will head up into the Great Lakes on Wednesday
with some trailing jet energy and a weak cold front left in its
wake. The main impact locally will be the cooler air that will
move in, with highs Wednesday expected to be about 5 degrees below
average. A high amplitude ridge will gradually move into the
west through the weekend before breaking down. This will keep
meridional mid-level flow dominating much of the north-central
CONUS with surface ridging pouring out of the Intermountain West
into Texas. This will likely keep temperatures on the cool side of
average through at least the first half of the weekend. It appears
the coolest day will be Friday when a secondary surge of cold air
invades. Even so, this air won`t be that cold by winter standards,
with highs mostly in the 40s. The western ridge will finally
breakdown and shift eastward as jet energy races into the northern
Rockies early Monday. Before then, an upper low is progged to
develop under the ridge over northwest Mexico over the weekend
before edging eastward next week. At this point it appears the
upper low will be too far south for any impacts locally other than
perhaps a few high clouds thrown up this way. Instead, a brief
return of southwesterly low-level flow should secure a return of
above average temperatures by next Monday.

FIRE WEATHER...
The windy and drying airmass will increase the fire danger today. RH
values are forecast to drop into the 15 to 20 percent range this
afternoon across all the forecast area. ERC values have been running
below normal due to the cool and wet period in January but have been
trending up quickly in recent days...approaching climatological
average. We expect that there will be sporadic red flag conditions
mainly across the Caprock this afternoon, but likely not of
sufficient duration or coverage to support a Red Flag Warning. A
Fire Danger Statement will be issued for the entire forecast area.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening
for TXZ021>042.

&&

$$

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