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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sterling, VA
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Issued by NWS Sterling, VA
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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --000 FXUS61 KLWX 260753 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 353 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024 .SYNOPSIS...-- Changed Discussion --Surface high pressure moves south along the eastern Appalachians today into Saturday. Cooler temperatures prevail as a result along, with increased cloud cover and showers on Saturday. A warm front lifts through the area this weekend bringing a significant warm up Sunday and Monday. The next chance for widespread precipitation arrives with a cold front Tuesday into Wednesday next week.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...-- Changed Discussion --A weak mid-level disturbance moves through the area this morning, followed by weak ridging aloft tonight. A surface high over southern New England begins to slide south into the western Atlantic Ocean. Dry conditions expected today as morning cloudiness, especially west of US-15, gives way to more sunshine late this afternoon. Seasonal conditions as highs reach the low to mid 60s today. Not as cool tonight, with lows settling in the low to mid 40s.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...-- Changed Discussion --A mid-level trough over the Northern Plains ejects east over the Great Lakes Saturday. Most of the energy associated with this system remains well to our west, though some weak vorticity riding atop the ridge aloft will make its way over our area. Combined with a warm front lifting north there will be scattered shower activity, especially west of US-15. Given the slow moving nature of this system, Saturday looks to be cloudy and at time showery. This keeps highs slightly cooler in the upper 50s to low 60s. Though, much milder Saturday night as lows settle in the 50s. Deep ridging engulfs much of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic Sunday, bringing a return of dry, partly cloudy, and significantly warmer conditions. An early taste of summer Sunday as highs reach the low to mid 80s, which is about 20-25 degrees higher than Saturday. A few showers or thunderstorms could develop west of the Blue Ridge Sunday afternoon, though given the deep mixing and dry low-levels any convective activity will be short lived. Even milder Sunday night as lows settle in the upper 50s to low 60s.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --A strong upper ridge remains overhead on Monday with anomalously warm temperatures to start the work week. Highs well into the 80s are forecast Monday and Tuesday, though a few degrees cooler Tuesday with the increased cloud cover as high pressure moves offshore and a weak cold front approaches from the west. The frontal passage isn`t expected to bring much relief from the heat, however. Showers and thunderstorms could accompany the front in the afternoon and evening and some could be strong to severe. Decent instability will be available, but guidance has been weaker on the shear. Will continue to monitor. A weaker shortwave moves through on Wednesday, with more potential for showers and thunderstorms. The environment will be similar as far as instability and shear, but with weaker forcing. Guidance diverges heading into late week, but thus far above average temperatures are expected to continue with possibly some relief near the end of the week or into the weekend.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --VFR conditions are expected through late this evening as high pressure to our northeast maintains dry conditions. A deck of stratocu around 4500-6000 feet from CHO to MRB to IAD will produce cloudy skies this morning, though those clouds should disperse this afternoon. A weak disturbance moves across the area Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon, likely bringing showers and periods of sub-VFR conditions to CHO and MRB. There could be some sub-VFR conditions at IAD in the afternoon, though confidence is low at this time. DCA, BWI, and MTN look to stay just east of the lower CIGs, though again it bears watching as that could change. The system exits Saturday night, with VFR conditions returning through the rest of the weekend. Southeast winds around 10 knots today turn south-southeast to south Saturday, then southwest on Sunday. Could see some occasional gusts to 15-20 knots each afternoon to evening, especially at DCA, MTN, and BWI. VFR conditions are expected Monday with high pressure. Sub-VFR conditions are possible with any showers and thunderstorms as a weak cold front moves through on Tuesday.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .MARINE...-- Changed Discussion --Periods of SCA conditions are likely across most of the waters, especially the open waters of the Chesapeake Bay through Saturday night. Southeast winds are likely to result in several hours of gusts to around 20 knots this afternoon to evening, so a Small Craft Advisory has been issued. For Saturday, southerly channeling is likely to result in additional SCA winds during the evening hours. High pressure builds across the region Sunday, likely keeping southwest winds at 10 knots or less. Westerly flow to start on Monday becomes southerly in the evening. Winds may approach SCA criteria on Tuesday as a weak cold front moves through the area, and stronger gusts will be possible with any showers and thunderstorms passing over the waters. Winds become westerly behind the front Tuesday night.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...-- Changed Discussion --Coastal Flood Advisories are in effect for Annapolis, Straits Points, and DC SW Waterfront for this morning`s high tide. Near moderate coastal flooding is possible near Annapolis and Straits Point. Other spots could reach minor flood stage, which would require additional Coastal Flood Advisories. This is due in part to increased northeast to easterly flow eventually switching to the south/southeast this weekend. The potential for coastal flooding continues Saturday as southerly flow persists, with several sites approaching or exceeding minor.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...-- Changed Discussion --DC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 1 PM EDT this afternoon for DCZ001. MD...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for MDZ005-006-008- 507-508. Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT today for MDZ014. Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for MDZ017. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ530>533-536-538>542. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ534-537-543. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to midnight EDT tonight for ANZ535.-- End Changed Discussion --&& $$ SYNOPSIS...KRR NEAR TERM...KRR SHORT TERM...KRR LONG TERM...CAS AVIATION...KRR/CAS MARINE...KRR/CAS TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...CAS
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