Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 192034
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
234 PM CST Sun Nov 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Concerns in this forecast cycle are minimal. An overall dry
pattern, even with frontal passages but have limited moisture.
Temperatures will be overall cooler than normal to start, then
warm toward the end of the week.

Surface high pressure continues to build into the region,
bringing cooler and dry weather. Winds have lowered today and were
out of the northwest, with wind speeds at 5 to 15 mph.
Temperatures were from the 50s to a few around 60. Aloft, the
deep upper low pressure trough has moved to the eastern U.S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Tuesday

The surface high pressure will be the dominant weather feature
today through Tuesday, and bring dry and cool weather conditions.
Mostly clear nights and mostly sunny days. Lows will be in the 30s
tonight, some 40s to 30s Monday night. Highs will be in the 50s to
lower 60s Monday, while a bit milder with 50s and more lower to
mid 60s on Tuesday. Tuesday evening, a cold front will approach AR
and move through the state Tuesday night. At this time limited
moisture will only add some clouds. A wind shift to the northwest
will be seen, ans lows drop to the 30s to some lower 40s again.

&&

.LONG TERM...Tuesday Night Through Sunday

The extended is quite active, if you`re in the Pacific Northwest.
For Arkansas, not so much, unless you believe the Canadian model,
which is dropping multiple "bowling balls" across the country
over the next week. For the following forecast, I will disregard
it. The GFS and Euro are in solid agreement over the next few days
so will lean close to them in the grids.

Both the GFS and Euro solutions depict upper level longwave ridging
with the mean axis somewhere along a parallel in the intermountain
west and downstream troughing in the eastern CONUS. This is true for
Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, you get the idea. These models begin
to diverge significantly after the weekend, but nothing relevant
to this forecast.

On Wednesday, high pressure is expected to build into the region
following the cold front passage on Tuesday. Temperatures will be 5
to 10 degrees below average for Wednesday. While cold air will be in
place. Chose to keep temperatures above `superblend` guidance in
the grids. Reason for this would be the passing of a couple quick
short/weak shortwaves generating enough lift for some cloud
coverage and maybe enough wind response to mix up that nocturnal
boundary layer just a touch, which would keep temperatures a bit
warmer. Grids reflect something much closer to a GFS/ECMWF solution,
maybe a touch colder.

Some marginal return flow ensues, enough to warm temps to near or
above average until another cold front moves through on Saturday.
Just like Tuesday, there will be very limited moisture (<1" pwats)
to work with as the best dpva/lift stays father northeast, so am not
expecting much in the way of precipitation. Kept pops close to 0 as
a result. Dry northwest flow will follow, with temperatures near
seasonal to begin the next work week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     31  58  36  62 /   0   0   0  10
Camden AR         30  60  37  66 /   0   0   0  10
Harrison AR       32  60  40  58 /   0   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    32  59  38  64 /   0   0   0  10
Little Rock   AR  33  59  36  64 /   0   0   0  10
Monticello AR     32  58  37  65 /   0   0   0  10
Mount Ida AR      30  59  36  64 /   0   0   0  10
Mountain Home AR  31  59  38  59 /   0   0   0   0
Newport AR        30  58  37  62 /   0   0   0  10
Pine Bluff AR     31  58  36  65 /   0   0   0  10
Russellville AR   32  60  36  62 /   0   0   0  10
Searcy AR         30  58  34  62 /   0   0   0  10
Stuttgart AR      33  58  36  64 /   0   0   0  10
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...59 / Long Term...BROWN



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