Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 280402
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280401
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-280600-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1413
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1101 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN KS...EXTREME E-CENTRAL CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 280401Z - 280600Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...IN ADDITION TO ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL...AT
LEAST SOME THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS MAY DEVELOP IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. ALTHOUGH A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED...TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED FOR INCREASING ORGANIZATION.

DISCUSSION...A SMALL AREA OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED OVER
NORTHWEST KS/ADJACENT EAST-CENTRAL CO AT 04Z...LIKELY PRODUCING A
FEW REPORTS OF SEVERE HAIL. WEAK-MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
35-40 KTS OF NORTHWESTERLY EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR HAVE RESULTED IN
ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH MID-LEVEL ROTATION.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO BECOME ORGANIZED ALONG MERGING
OUTFLOWS OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS AND...DESPITE CONTINUED NOCTURNAL
COOLING/INCREASING CINH...RESULT IN A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS
THE DISCUSSION AREA. IT REMAINS UNCLEAR WHETHER THIS WILL OCCUR AND
HOW LONG SUCH A THREAT WOULD LAST...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH-RES GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SUCH A SCENARIO IS PLAUSIBLE. IN THE SHORT TERM A WATCH IS
NOT EXPECTED...HOWEVER TRENDS IN THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION WILL BE
MONITORED.

..BUNTING/EDWARDS.. 07/28/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...

LAT...LON   37930189 39030230 39520245 39780233 39980210 40020179
            39940143 39830113 39720091 39340038 38900019 38120020
            37790093 37930189




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