Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS11 KWNS 222051
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222050
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-OHZ000-222215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1600
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0350 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KY...SRN WV...WRN VA...WRN-CNTRL NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 222050Z - 222215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS FROM ERN KY SEWD ACROSS WRN VA INTO WRN AND CNTRL NC.
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. WW ISSUANCE SHOULD NOT
BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE
THREAT.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH EXTENDING NEWD
ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN
THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S F. SFC TEMPS ON THE ERN SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIAN MTNS ARE NOW IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S F WHICH HAS
ALLOWED MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
REGION. THE STRONGEST HEATING HAS OCCURRED FROM NEAR CHARLOTTE NC
NEWD TO NEAR LYNCHBURG VA WHERE MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED IN THE 1500 TO
2000 J/KG RANGE. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH ACROSS SRN NC...MESOSCALE
ANALYSIS IS SHOWING 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES ABOVE 8.0 C/KM. AS THE
CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER ERN KY AND WRN VA MOVES SEWD INTO THE
STRONGER INSTABILITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SHOULD MAKE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS.

..BROYLES/MEAD.. 08/22/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...

LAT...LON   34817959 36017830 36817834 37767997 38558173 38358301
            37008351 35778243 34817959



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