National Weather Service Text Product Display

Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
ACUS11 KWNS 230022
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230021
NHZ000-VTZ000-MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-230115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0775
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0721 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...WV...SE OH...WRN PA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 211...

VALID 230021Z - 230115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 211
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS WW
211 FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE STRONGEST CELLS COULD HAVE A
MARGINAL THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL. DUE TO THE MARGINAL NATURE
OF THE THREAT...WW ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED BEYOND THE 02Z WATCH
EXPIRATION.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC LOW NORTH OF LAKE ERIE
WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW LOCATED ACROSS ERN OH AND WRN PA. SWD
ACROSS WV...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE MOVING WWD TOWARD THE
OH RIVER WHERE NEW CELLS HAVE INITIATED IN THE LAST HOUR. THIS
CONVECTION COULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASES
EARLY THIS EVENING DUE TO A DISTURBANCE MOVING EWD THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE NEWD
INTO ERN OH WHERE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS MLCAPE VALUES
OF 750 TO 1000 J/KG AND 30-35 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS ALONG WITH
0-3 KM LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5 C/KM COULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED WIND
DAMAGE THREAT. THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL DUE TO WEAKENING
INSTABILITY AND WW 211 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE.

..BROYLES/THOMPSON.. 05/23/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...

LAT...LON   45027129 41417320 41407665 45027498 45027129

National Weather Service National Headquarters