Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 021659
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021659
INZ000-ILZ000-KYZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-021830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1795
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1159 AM CDT THU OCT 02 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...CNTRL/SRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 021659Z - 021830Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH INCREASINGLY NUMEROUS STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...BETWEEN AREAS OF SCATTERED ELEVATED STORMS WITHIN THE
WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF THE BROADER CNTRL CONUS CYCLONE...POCKETS OF
STRONGER SURFACE HEATING HAVE YIELDED TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. WITH THIS OCCURRING AMIDST A RICHLY MOIST GULF
AIR MASS....CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SURFACE DEW
POINTS...MODIFIED 12Z SGF/LZK/JAN RAOBS SUGGEST THE AIR MASS HAS
BECOME AT LEAST MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH NEGLIGIBLE INHIBITION.
BOUNDARY-LAYER CU APPEARS TO BE INCREASINGLY AGITATED/CLUMPING FROM
THE OZARKS ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY...INFERRING THAT STORM
DEVELOPMENT COULD BECOME WIDESPREAD BY MID-AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
DEEP-LAYER WINDS WILL BE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING FROM THE
WEST...THEY SHOULD REMAIN MODEST AND SUPPORT A MORE
ISOLATED/MARGINAL SEVERE RISK RELATIVE TO FARTHER SW.

..GRAMS/MEAD.. 10/02/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON   37779165 38729075 39249012 39688929 39848872 39838778
            39678766 39308747 38938753 38088816 37168894 36518981
            36279042 36139093 36189137 36509185 36979191 37779165




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