Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 011109
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
709 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT...THEN STALL NEAR OR
JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 7 AM SUN...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH FINALLY BEGINNING TO WEAKEN OVER EASTERN NC...WITH WARM
FRONT OVER NORTHERN GA/NORTHERN SC AND NOW UP INTO THE OUTER NC
COASTAL WATERS. THE WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THIS MORNING
AND THROUGH EASTERN NC LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH
MOVEMENT SEEMS SLOWER THAN 00Z GUIDANCE DEPICTS. WIDESPREAD LOW
STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA WILL LIFT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS. MUCH
WARMER TEMPS EXPECTED TODAY AS SLY FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S
ALONG THE OUTER BANKS AND MID 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES INLAND.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME LIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS TRYING TO
MOVE OFF THE WATER ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST...WITH SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL NC LIFTING NE TOWARD THE COASTAL PLAIN.
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING, WITH BETTER CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS INLAND TO SC CLOSER TO THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH MINIMAL FORCING ALOFT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SB CAPE VALUES INCREASING TO 1000-1500
J/KG, LI VALUES -3/-4C WITH 0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 25KT...MAINLY W OF
HWY 17. A FEW ISOLATED STRONG PULSE TYPE TSTMS POSSIBLE WITH SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM SUN...EXPECT ANY LINGERING CONVECTION TO WANE WITH
LOSS OF HEATING...AND COULD SEE A BIT OF A LULL WITH PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASING AGAIN LATE. THE COMBINATION OF A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE...DEEP MOIST S/SW FLOW AND FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS WILL
LEAD TO BETTER PRECIP CHANCES OVERNIGHT. AS PWAT VALUES INCREASE
TO JUST OVER 1.5". WILL CONTINUE HIGHER CHANCE POPS WITH SC TSTM
MENTION. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SUNDAY...A RATHER ACTIVE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH LINGERS
ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...BECOMING A CLOSED LOW AND
MOVING TOWARD THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE IN THE
WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO UNSETTLED WEATHER.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: A STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSES
THE REGION ON MONDAY COUPLED WITH INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD
OF A SLOWLY-MOVING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE MOUNTAINS. THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE QUITE UNSTABLE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH FORECAST
LI VALUES OF -6 TO -8C AND SURFACE-BASED CAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG.
BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE FAIRLY WEAK SO WHILE THERE MAY NOT BE ANY
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. IT WILL ALSO BE QUITE WARM ON MONDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID 80S AWAY FROM THE WATER. POPS RAMP UP
TO LIKELY BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY EVENING AS COLD FRONT
STALLS OR MOVES VERY SLOWLY INTO THE NC PIEDMONT WITH SEVERAL WEAK
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT. THE AREA IS IN A MARGINAL
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR TUESDAY GIVEN STRONG WIND SHEAR.
ALTHOUGH OVERALL INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HIGH AS
MONDAY...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH MORE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MID/UPPER 70S MOST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A GOOD
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ON WEDNESDAY AS COLD FRONT
PIVOTS TOWARD THE COAST COUPLED WITH VERY STRONG MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE. DECENT INSTABILITY DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH LI`S
-4 TO -6C AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR COULD AGAIN PRODUCE THE
THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO LATE WEEK...WITH THE COLD FRONT OFFSHORE AND SLIGHTLY LOWER
THICKNESS VALUES...THE PATTERN WILL THEN BE DOMINATED BY THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS TO THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MORE SHOWERY
REGIME IN WHICH THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE TROUBLE ASSESSING THE
COVERAGE AND PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION. AS A RESULT...HAVE
CONTINUED WITH LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM SUN...CURRENTLY A MIXED BAG OF LIFR/IFR/VFR ACROSS THE
TAF SITES THIS MORNING. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD ERODE FAIRLY
QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY BEHIND
THE WARM FRONT...BECOMING PRED VFR BY LATE MORNING. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH BETTER PRECIP CHANCES LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING. SUB-VFR STRATUS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH GUIDANCE
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM SUNDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE FROM LATER MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED...POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
BRIEF BOUTS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBY. THE PATTERN BECOMES
MORE SHOWERY ON THURSDAY WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION...BUT OCCASIONAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AS WELL. IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL DURING THE
DAY...SOME PATCHY LATE NIGHT STRATUS/FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
BRIEF IFR PERIODS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM SUN...LATEST OBS SHOW E/NE WINDS 5-15KT WITH SEAS
4-5FT NORTH OF OCRACOKE...AND 2-4FT SOUTH. THOUGH OUTER BUOYS
SOUTH OF HATTERAS NOW SHOWING SOME SLY WINDS. COULD CONTINUE TO
SEE BRIEF PERIOD OF 6FT SEAS ON OUTER WATERS NORTH OF OCRACOKE
WITH PERSISTENT NE FETCH THIS MORNING. WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH
WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS TODAY...WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHERLY 10-15KT WITH GUSTS 15-20KT LATER THIS MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS...THOUGH
COULD SEE STILL SEE SOME 5FT SEAS...POSSIBLY UP TO 6FT NEAR 41025
WITH SLY FLOW AND WARMER WATER TEMPS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM SATURDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER...NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL AT LEAST THURSDAY. EXPECT S/SW WINDS
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS GENERALLY 3-5 FEET FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT FINALLY ARRIVES IN THE COASTAL
WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE W/WNW THURSDAY AT
10-15 KNOTS. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE DOES SHOW SOME 6 FOOT SEAS OVER
THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MARINE ZONES
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS WINDS BACK TO SW/W IN THE WAKE OF
EXITING LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF/CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/CQD
MARINE...CTC/CQD



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