Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 231901
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
301 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A
DRY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THEN DOMINATES THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PULL NE AND AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SLOWLY
BUILDS EAST. CLR SKIES EXPECTED TO PROMOTE GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING. LOWS IN THE 40S EXCEPT LOW TO MID 50S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED TO SLOWLY BUILD EAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THIS RESULTS IN SCT CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME ALONG WITH A WARMING
TREND. HIGHS BOTH DAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS FRI NIGHT
IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

NEXT QUICK MOVG S/W DIVES SE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY PUSHING
A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY. NO MOISTURE FOR ANY
PCPN BUT CLOUD SEE SOME CLOUDINESS AT TIMES. MILDER AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SAT NIGHT. LOWS 50-55 EXCEPT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S NEAR THE
WATER. NOT MUCH IN WAY OF CAA BEHIND THE BNDRY...SO EXPECT SUNDAY TO
AVG PT TO MSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS 70-75.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM AND DRY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WARMING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY. LOWS IN THE 50S EXCEPT 60S NEAR THE WATER.
MODELS NOW HAVE THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WITH SOME
MOISTURE OVERSPREADING THE REGION BY THURSDAY. MODELS THEN DIVERGE
IN OPINIONS ON WHETHER THE BOUNDARY GETS HUNG UP ALONG THE COAST
LIKE THE GFS HAS OR MOVES OFFSHORE AS THE ECMWF SUGGESTS. KEPT SLGHT
CHC POPS IN ON THURSDAY FOR NOW. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST RESULTS IN CLEAR SKIES. THE GUSTY NW WINDS
WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH WINDS AVERAGING
AROUND 5 KNOTS THROUGH 12Z. MAINLY CLR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED FRIDAY.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS THE HIGH BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST. OVERALL THE AIRMASS REMAINS DRY SO DO NOT EXPECT
ANY REDUCTIONS IN VSBY OR CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT BRIEF RADIATION FOG IN LOW SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS IN THE
EARLY MORNINGS DUE TO LARGE WATER/LAND TEMP CONTRASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WINDS DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL DROP THE SCA FOR THE
SOUNDS AND RIVERS WITH THE EVENING FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. SCA`S WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS SEAS WILL BE SLOWER TO
SUBSIDE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE SAT THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE
NEXT DRY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FROM NORTHWEST...THEN DIMINISH
AGAIN MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY AND CROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ156.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AKQ
NEAR TERM...AKQ
SHORT TERM...AKQ
LONG TERM...AKQ
AVIATION...AKQ
MARINE...AKQ






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