Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 272211
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
611 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION
THROUGH MID WEEK WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THE HIGH
WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE OF THE COAST THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY...MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
AND STALL INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 6 PM MONDAY...CONVECTION DEVELOPING WELL TO NW WHERE
MOISTURE AND INSTAB A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE. MOST MDLS SHOW THIS
ACTIVITY WEAKENING AS APPROACHES ERN NC BUT COULD SEE SOME REACH
INLAND AREAS SO WILL KEEP ISOLD POP THRU EVENING. LATER TONIGHT AS
INSTAB WANES EVEN MORE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY ACTIVITY. NO
CHANGE TO LOWS WITH LOWER 70S INLAND AND MID/UPR 70S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM MONDAY...UPR RIDGE SHARPENS TO THE W TUE ALLOWING FOR
SOME WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO DROP SE THRU THE REGION. NOT MUCH
TO FOCUS PRECIP WITH STALLED FRONT CONTG WELL TO THE SOUTH. CONT
CHC POPS INLAND TUE AFTERNOON AND SLGT CHC ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS
ARND 90 INLAND AND MID 80S COASTAL SECTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM MON...MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN A
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BRINGING INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES
LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

A BROAD UPR RDG CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL EXTEND E AND
KEEP THE REGION MAINLY DRY WED AND THU. ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM EXPECTED, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS. TEMPS CLOSE TO CLIMO THRU THU WITH HIGHS
LOWER 90S INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 80S CST.

PRECIP CHCS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
UPR RDG FLATTENS AND AN UPR TRF GRAD DEVELOPS OVER ERN US. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRI THEN STALL NEAR THE REGION
SAT AND SUN. PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTH ALONG THE
SE CST WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS BUT WILL MAINTAIN
CHANCE POPS FRI THRU MON GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON CVRG AND TIMING OF
PCPN AT THIS TIME. TEMPS CONTINUE NEAR CLIMO WITH AROUND 90
INLAND FRI. WITH FRONT IN VCNTY OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE COOLER WITH INCREASED CLOUD
COVER WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 6 PM MONDAY...VFR WILL CONT THRU EVENING WITH BULK OF
CONVECTION REMAINING W OF TAFS. LATER TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS
COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP AS TEMPS APPROACH DEWPTS. SINCE
DIDNT SEE MUCH LAST NIGHT WILL KEEP IN MVFR RANGE LATE AND WHAT
EVER FORMS WILL RAPIDLY BURNOFF AFTER SUNRISE TUE. CONT MAINLY VFR
TUE...EXPECT A LITTLE BETTER CVRG OF CONVECTION INLAND TOMM BUT
WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF TAFS AS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON CVRG
THIS FAR OUT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM MON...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WILL HAVE TYPICAL THREAT OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORN FOG/ST
BUT SHLD BE LIMITED AND BRIEF. ISO/WDLY SCT CONVECTION POSS WED
AND THU, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASE THU NIGHT THRU FRI AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST AND PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE LIFTS INTO THE AREA BRINGING
BETTER CHANCES OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 6 PM MONDAY...FCST LOOKS GOOD...ONLY CHANGE WAS TO CAP SEAS
AT 3 FT OVERNIGHT GIVEN CURRENT WAVE HGTS AND CONT LIGHT WINDS.

PREV DISC...SFC RDG IS LOCATED ACRS THE NRN WATERS WITH A STALLED
OUT FRONT WELL TO THE SOUTH. CURRENT WINDS E-SE ON THE COASTAL
WATERS AND SOUNDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET. THIS
PATTERN CONTS TONIGHT THROUGH TUE WITH A LIGHT ELY FLOW ARND 10 KT
AND SEAS 2-4 FT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM MON...GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE
PERIOD. HIGH PRES TO THE N AND NE COMBINED WITH STALLED FRONT TO
THE S WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW BELOW 15 KTS THRU
WED. AS HIGH PRES BECOMES ESTABLISHED OFFSHORE LATE WEEK WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY BECOME S TO SW THU AND FRI WITH SPEEDS REMAINING
AOB 15 KTS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THU NIGHT AND
MOVE INTO THE WATERS FRI THRU SAT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
NWPS/WAVEWATCH IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SEAS GENERALLY 2-4FT
THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC/CTC
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...RF/SK/CQD
MARINE...JAC/RF/SK/CQD


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