Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 241736
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
136 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An inland thermal trough and Bermuda high offshore will prevail
through much of the week ahead. A weak cool front will approach
from the north late Tuesday, then remain stalled over the mid-
Atlantic region through Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1130 AM...minor adjustments to sky condition for cumulus
development in southern coastal sea breeze zone late this morning,
otherwise previous forecast on track. 12Z KMHX sounding indicates
subsidence inversion has lowered to around 800 MB and will
preclude any deep convective development, thus no POP forecast.

/Previous discussion/
As of 620 AM Sunday...no significant changes this update. We are
expecting a very hot and humid day today under the influence of
the strong upper ridge spreading across the area. subsidence
should limit any chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Can`t rule
out a stray shower or storm on the sea breeze, but didn`t feel it
warranted even a slight chance. didn`t deviate much from the
previous forecast which remains slightly above GFS MOS Guidance
with highs firmly into the mid 90s inland to around 90 on the
coast. heat index values will reach into the 105 to 109 range and
could last several hours this afternoon. Will continue a heat
advisory for the entire area except Ocracoke Island (Outer Banks
Hyde County). those engaged in outdoor activities should stay
hydrated and watch for symptoms of heat related illnesses.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
As of 300 AM Sunday...Expect another warm and humid night tonight.
Will experience a light southwesterly breeze most of the night,
especially along the coast. Temperatures will again not fall out
of the 75 to 80 range for most of the area. Don`t expect any
chance of precipitation.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 315 AM Sunday...No significant changes were noted in the
00Z model run with a rather stagnant pattern expected through the
upcoming week. Typical late July pattern will persist through the
week, albeit with temps generally 5-8 degrees above normal
resulting in heat indices near advisory criteria each day. An
east- west oriented upper ridge will dominate through late week,
then models continue to indicate some troughing moving in Friday-
Saturday, leading to increased chances of convective activity.

Monday through Tuesday...A strong upper level ridge will build
east from the southern Plains across the SE/Mid Atlantic regions
producing hot temperatures into the mid 90s and afternoon heat
index values around 105 degrees possibly warranting Heat
Advisories. Strong subsidence and minimal short wave activity will
preclude any convective activity through Monday night. Weak short
wave energy moving across just to the north Tuesday along with
increase in deep layer moisture with PW values building to around
2 inches, would support a very low chance for a shower or
thunderstorm inland so will continue 20% PoPs there despite MOS
PoPs 10% or less. Will continue to highlight the dangerous heat
potential in the HWO.

Wednesday through Saturday...Per above, models continue to
indicate the upper ridge axis shifting slightly south with some
troughing developing into the Ohio valley and NE U.S. This will
allow the base of the westerlies and the track of mid level
shortwaves to brush NC by late week, which will lead to better
chances for showers and thunderstorms especially late next week.
Expect continued high temperatures in the lower to middle 90s with
max heat index values in the low 100s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short term /Through Monday Afternoon/...
As of 130 PM Sunday...VFR conditions expected through Monday
morning with exception of possible MVFR conditions west of highway
17 due to patchy fog.

Light S/SW winds this afternoon with a scattered cumulus deck
around 3500 FT. This will dissipate soon after sunset and winds
will remain light and variable. Similar to last night fog may
develop between 6 and 8 AM for all TAF sites but EWN, but will
dissolve quickly as daytime heating begins. Clear and tranquil
conditions expected for Monday.


Long Term /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 315 AM Sunday...Mainly VFR conditions are expected through
Tuesday as strong mid level ridging persists across the region
with only minimal convective activity expected mainly during the
afternoon/evenings. Conditions will become more unstable Wednesday
and Thursday which is expected to lead to greater coverage of
showers and thunderstorms and the potential for sub VFR
conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Through tonight/...
As of 1130 AM Sunday...no changes with update.

/Previous discussion/
As of 620 AM Sunday...No significant changes this update. The
marine forecast, like the other aspects of the forecast, will
remain quite familiar. The forecast continues to be dominated by
the offshore Bermuda high and interior thermal trough under a
strong upper ridge. This will result in southwest winds generally
10-15 Kt with some higher gusts to around 20 KT especially late in
the afternoon and continuing into the evening hours. Seas will
remain in the 2 to 3 foot range.

Long Term /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 315 AM Sunday...The models continue to indicate typical
Bermuda high/inland trough pattern through the period, resulting
in persistent SW flow around 15 KT across the waters. Winds are
expected to become slightly stronger, to around 20 KT, during the
late afternoon and evening hours each day, when the pressure
gradient between the Piedmont thermal trough and the Bermuda high
offshore is strongest. A weak cold front could briefly drift south
into the northern waters Thursday with the main affect a period of
light easterly winds. Seas will continue 2-4 ft through the period
occasionally reaching 5 FT over the outer waters during periods of
stronger flow.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ029-044>047-
     079>081-090>095-098-103.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JME/SGK
MARINE...JBM


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