Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KMHX 291115
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
615 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THEN PASS
OFFSHORE TODAY. A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CRESTING OVER THE AREA THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE SLOWLY OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN US WILL
APPROACH LATE WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS THIS MORNING AND
MID CLOUDS LATE TODAY. RETURN FLOW DOES NOT DEVELOP UNTIL LATE
WHEN CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING. THIS WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES
A BIT WITH EXPECTED HIGHS MOST LOCATIONS 45 TO 50 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT IS HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES. NONE OF THE
MODELS GENERATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF (<0.10") BUT MOS POPS IN
ALL GUIDANCE FOR ALL OF OUR SITES ARE IN THE 20-50% RANGE (HIGHEST
COASTAL LOCATIONS). THINK BEST APPROACH IS TO USE A BLEND OF THE
MOS WHICH RESULTED IN 20% POPS FAR INLAND AND NORTH AND 40% COAST.
THINK THE AREA THAT HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SOME LIGHT
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 264 AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 17 IN THE 8Z-14Z TIME FRAME. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S AND MAY OCCUR IN THE EVENING AS WINDS EXPECTED TO
PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AROUND MIDNIGHT. WITH A DEEP LOW
LAYER OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES NOT EXPECTING ANY P-TYPE
ISSUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL RESIDE WELL OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY EVENING WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS
NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWESTERN
STATES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
LOW TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL...LOW 20S INLAND TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE
COAST WITH A LINGERING BREEZE MAKING TEMPS FEEL LIKE THE TEENS.

DESPITE FULL INSOLATION SATURDAY...LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES FALL TO
1280-1290 METERS YIELDING TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S WITH SOME
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF EASTERN NC. THE
SURFACE RIDGE CENTER WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH SOUTH CAROLINA
SATURDAY AND OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SEE MODERATING TEMPS DESPITE MAINLY CALM
WINDS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE LATE AS WAA
ALOFT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. LOWS WILL QUICKLY FALL INTO
THE UPPER 20S PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT BEFORE A LEVELING OFF OF TEMPS OR
A SLIGHT RISING TREND ENSUES.

DISAGREEMENT AMONGST MODEL SUITE FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
SYSTEM CONTINUES WITH 00Z GUIDANCE. A BROAD SHORT WAVE WILL SWING
THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS WITH WEAK CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS/VIRGINIA SUNDAY NIGHT. LARGE SPREAD AMONGST DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE WITH THE GFS UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT
DEEPER AND FARTHER WEST...THE GEM MUCH SLOWER THAN ALL OTHER
GUIDANCE...AND THE ECMWF WEAKER WITH ITS UPPER/SURFACE SOLUTIONS
AND CLOSER TO THE COAST. RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES ALSO SUGGEST WIDE
SPREAD INDICATIVE OF INCONSISTENCY WITHIN MODEL SCHEME AND BETWEEN
MODELS. DESPITE THE UNCERTAINTY...IT APPEARS A HIGH POP/LOW QPF
SCENARIO IS LIKELY AS PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE WITH
THE SYSTEM DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK FORCING ALOFT.

IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT IF ENOUGH MOISTURE IS PRESENT ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING AND STRENGTHENING LOW...AS SUGGESTED BY
THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF GUIDANCE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF FROZEN PRECIP POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY EVENING MAINLY FOR NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS. GIVEN CONSIDERABLE
DISAGREEMENT AMONGST GUIDANCE...WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION IN GRIDS
FOR NOW AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
MONDAY WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE THEN LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES FALL TO
AROUND 1280-1290 METERS TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION FROM THE MIDWESTERN STATES. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S
NORTH TO LOWER 40S SOUTH ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH A CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ESPECIALLY AT THE KOAJ AND KEWN TAF SITES AFTER 06Z.
THE PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
SUB VFR CONDITIONS. EXPECTING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WITH LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SW AND INCREASING TO 5 TO
10 MPH THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...VFR EXPECTED FRIDAY THOUGH WINDY WITH WIND
GUSTS 20-30 KT FROM THE NW DURING THE DAY. WINDS DIMINISH FRI
NIGHT THROUGH SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES. NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES SUN NIGHT WITH
POSSIBLE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM THURSDAY...COMPLICATED FORECAST AS NO SOONER DO THE
CURRENT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DIMINISH THIS MORNING THEN CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE AGAIN TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE WATERS
WITH INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE PREFRONTAL FLOW WILL BE
STRONGEST OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS AND THE PAMLICO
SOUND. FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF OREGON INLET ONCE SEAS SUBSIDE THIS
MORNING CONDITIONS WILL BE REMAIN SUB ADVISORY UNTIL LATE FRIDAY
MORNING WHEN THE STRONGER POST FRONTAL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CRANKS
UP.

DETAILS: NORTHERLY WINDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF DIMINISHING EARLY
THIS MORNING AND ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 15 KT LATE THIS
MORNING WITH SEAS FINALLY SUBSIDING BELOW 6 FT AROUND 15Z. THE
FLOW BECOMES LIGHT WEST-SOUTHWEST LATE TODAY THEN INCREASES TO 15 TO
25 KT THIS EVENING OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS ALONG WITH
THE PAMLICO SOUND WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN SEAS. THE FRONT
IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE WATERS AROUND 12Z FRIDAY WITH THE FLOW
VEERING TO WEST LATE AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST FRIDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM THURSDAY...GENERALLY POOR BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED
IN THE LONG TERM WITH SEVERAL STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEMS PASSING
THROUGH THE WATERS. NW WINDS INCREASE BEHIND EASTWARD MOVING COLD
FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AT STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ESPECIALLY FOR
THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS SOUTH OF THE WATERS. SEAS EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE 10-12 FT
RANGE SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE DROPPING BELOW 6 FT LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST WELL SOUTH
OF THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SHIFTING WINDS WEST
LATE SATURDAY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTERLY BY SUNDAY. SOUTHWEST
WINDS AND INCREASING SEAS EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING FRONTAL SYSTEM...WHICH SHOULD CROSS THE
EASTERN NC COASTAL WATERS MONDAY. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ELEVATED AT SCA LEVELS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/DAG





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.