Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 241854
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
254 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH LATE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND
NORTH ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS
OFFSHORE. THIS WILL LEAD TO A MORE SE FLOW TONIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COOL AS RECENT NIGHT WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN ALONG THE COAST ON MONDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE NUDGES
SLIGHTLY FURTHER OFFSHORE. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY WITH HIGHS 80 TO 85 DEGREES WITH UPPER 70S ALONG THE NORTHERN
OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 156 PM SUN...STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST OF
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE BOTTOM
OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO
THE MIDDLE 80S AND KEEPING LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 60S UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE EAST DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK...BUT SHOULD STAY WELL EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER IT WILL
HELP SQUEEZE THE UPPER RIDGE AS ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
MODELS HINTING AT PRECIP TEASING WESTERN SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT MAIN EFFECTS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 1 PM SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT
AND MONDAY. NO FOG WAS OBSERVED LAST NIGHT AND LOCAL FOG TOOL AND
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DOES NOT INDICATE ANY VSBY ISSUES TONIGHT
EITHER GIVEN A 4-PLUS DEGREE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREAD...DESPITE
MINIMAL MIXING.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 202 PM SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ISOLATED SUB VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS WITH
FOG AND/OR STRATUS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME A BIT MORE
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY EASES FURTHER
OFFSHORE. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS 2
FEET. WINDS BECOME MORE SSE ON MONDAY...BUT SPEEDS STILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND SEAS ONLY AROUND 2 FEET PER LOCAL SWAN/NWPS MODEL.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 158 PM SUN...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST FLOW
EXPECTED AROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE RIDGE. GRADIENT TO REMAIN LOOSE
FOR SPEEDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CCG
AVIATION...CCG/CTC
MARINE...CCG/CTC


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