Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 252307

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
607 PM EST Sat Feb 25 2017

A cold front with limited moisture will move through the area
this evening. High pressure will build in Sunday then slide
offshore Monday through Wednesday. A cold front will cross the
region Thursday. High pressure will build in behind the front


As of 605 PM Saturday...New record highs set at HSE and EWN
today. Organized convection has remained well N of region where
forcing much better. Rdr shows a few cells trying to develop
along front over north central NC and a few of these may clip
nrn tier next few hours with lingering instab. Lowered pops a
bit nrn tier based on current trends/high res models and removed
pops srn tier. Otherwise no changes with markedly drier/cooler
air spreading in behind front tonight.

Prev disc...Daily high temperature records have been broken in
many locations across eastern NC this afternoon as expected.
There is still a threat for severe thunderstorms through early
evening as band of broken convection is forecast to develop
ahead of an approaching strong cold front. Then markedly cooler
air will move into the area behind the front resulting in
temperatures near normal values by Sunday morning.

The latest SPC convective outlook through this evening has
remained unchanged with the "Slight Risk" area right along our
northern border, just clipping the extreme northern part of our
area, with the "Marginal" risk over all but the immediate
coast. Sufficient shear with 0-6 KM Bulk Shear values of 45kt+,
SB CAPES of 500-1500 j/kg and lifted index values of -4/-6 and a
observed EML in this mornings MHX sounding all support severe
convection. Limiting factors are weaker forcing along the
southern portion of the strong cold front, veering surface flow
and limited low level convergence, and the inland penetration of
stabilizing marine air with advancement of the resultant sea
breeze this afternoon. Main threat is damaging wind gusts and
perhaps marginally severe hail in the strongest storms.
Convective mode is expected to be linear but if discrete cells
do develop, low level shear values would indicate a very small
risk for brief tornado if higher LCL Values (due to deep
convective mixing) can be overcome. The area with the greatest
risk continues to be north of Highway 264. Have increased PoPs
extreme north to 50% with PoPs diminishing to 20% across the
extreme southeast portion of the area. The precipitation should
be offshore by 3Z as the front moves through the area and the
colder/drier/more stable air moves in on a brisk NW flow.

Overnight lows will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s inland and
lower to middle 40s beaches which is normal for late February.


AS of 230 PM Saturday...Surface high pressure will quickly
crest over the area Sunday producing Sunny skies, diminishing
afternoon winds, and seasonable high temperatures in the mid to
upper 50s. Min rh values drop to 25-30% in the afternoon but
winds will be diminishing, easing fire weather concerns.


As of 3 PM Sat...A gradual warm up through mid-week with
increased rain chances Monday night through Thursday. A cold
front will push through the region Thursday with high pressure
building in for the latter half of the week bringing dry
conditions and cooler temperatures.

Sunday night through Monday...High pressure slides offshore
Sunday night and Monday with southerly return flow commencing a
warming trend Monday. Lows drop down into the 30s Mon morning
with good radiational cooling under mostly clear skies and calm
winds. Could see some inland locations drop to around freezing
Monday morning. Temps will rise into the 60s on Monday as S/SE
return flow develops.

Monday night through Thursday...A weak shortwave moving through
SW flow aloft brings increasing rain chances Mon night into
Tue with a stronger upper tough and sfc cold front approaching
from the west continuing to bring rain chances through mid-
week. Run to run consistency among the models remains poor
leading to a below normal confidence in the forecast this
period. The 12z global models have trended drier through Wed
and have made little changes to the forecast due to the
uncertainty. In addition, models continue to struggle with the
timing of the fropa Thu, especially the GFS which has been most
inconsistent and is now a little slower than the ECMWF in
pushing the front through Thu morning and have extended chance
PoPs Thu as a result. Will keep slt chc of tstms Tue as models
continue to indicate moderate instab and shear across the
region. A high shear/low CAPE environment will be in place
Wed/Wed evening ahead of the cold front and continued slt chc of
tstm mention this timeframe as well. Guidance continues to
indicate further warming through the week as heights/thicknesses
rise well above climo once again and yield high temps in the
70s most areas Tue and Wed. Could even see some low 80s inland
Wed ahead of the front. Increased temps a few degrees Thu with
the models slower to push the front through and expect highs
in the mid/upper 60s.

Thursday night through Saturday...High pressure will build into
the area from the west Thu night into Fri with a strong
shortwave trough pushing across the mid Atlantic and an
attendant dry sfc trough pushing through the region late Fri.
CAA will bring breezy conditions with temps falling back into
Lows drop back into the 30s to lower 40s Thu and Fri nights
with highs in the upper 50s/60 degrees inland to low/upper 50s
OBX Fri and into the low/mid 50s inland to upper 40s OBX Sat.


Short term /Through Sunday/...
As of 605 PM Saturday...High confidence in VFR thru period.
Current gusty SW winds ahead of cold front will switch to NW
behind front early to mid evening then quickly diminish
overnight. Shra and tstms have remained well to the N so far and
may see some development along front next cpl hours but limited
cvrg mainly near or N of PGV. Patchy CU will clear behind front
by mid evening as much drier air surges in with clear skies
cont thru Sunday.

Long term /Sunday Night through Thursday/...
As of 315 PM Sat...High pressure and a dry airmass will bring
mainly VFR through Monday. Moisture increases across the area
Mon night through Thu with a threat of showers/isol tstms with
periods of sub-VFR conditions possible through the period.
Gusty SW winds expected Tue and Wed ahead of a cold front that
is progged to push across the region Thu with winds shifting to
NW and remaining gusty after the fropa.


Short Term /through Sunday/...
As of 605 PM Saturday...No changes planned as current gusty SW
winds ahead of front will shift to NW and remain gusty thru much
of the night before quickly diminishing Sunday.

Prev disc...Small Craft Advisories will remain in effect into
early Sunday afternoon due to strong flow associated with a cold
front moving through the waters this evening. Ahead of the
front, SW winds of 15 to 25 kt will occur. Then behind the front
late this evening, winds will shift to the NW 20 to 30 kt with
higher gusts. The NW winds are forecast to diminish to 15 to 20
kt Sunday morning and 10 to 15 kt Sunday afternoon as high
pressure builds over the waters.

This afternoon we are still observing 5 to 7 foot swell from a
distant offshore low. The increasing flow associated with the
cold frontal passage will maintain elevated seas (AOA 6 ft)
through Sunday morning with seas forecast to subside to 2 to 4
ft by Sunday evening.

Long Term /Sunday Night through Thursday/...
As of 315 PM Sat...High pressure will slide offshore Sunday
night and Monday with light winds expected Sunday night,
becoming southerly 10-15 kt Monday afternoon. Southerly winds
increase to 10-20 kt Monday night, becoming SW Tue into Wed
morning. SW winds then increase to 15-30 kt late Wed/Wed night
ahead of an approaching cold front. Models have struggled with
the timing of the front but currently it is progged to push
across the waters Thu morning with winds becoming NW around
15-25 kt behind the front. NWPS and Wavewatch in good
agreement showing seas around 2-4 ft Sun night and Mon, then
building to 4-6 feet early Tuesday morning south of Oregon
Inlet. Seas subside slightly Tue night, then rebuild Wed peaking
around 5-9 ft late Wed through early Thu. Seas gradually subside
late Thu behind the front.


Record high temps for Sat 2/25

New Bern             77/2000 (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras        69/1961 (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville           81/1962 (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City        75/1996 (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
Kinston              84/1930 (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville         75/1996 (KNCA AWOS)


MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for AMZ130-131.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Sunday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Sunday for AMZ150-156-158.


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