Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 241901
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
301 PM EDT Sat Sep 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will drop south across the area tonight followed by
high pressure from the north Sunday through Monday. Another cold
front will move through from the west Tuesday night, then high
pressure will build in from the northwest Wednesday through
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 3 PM Sat...Latest sfc analysis shows weak cold front moving
through central VA this afternoon. Cold front will continue to
push southward and through Eastern NC tonight into early Sunday
morning, with high pressure building in from the north Sunday. Mostly
sunny skies this afternoon with unusually dry atmosphere given the
past several days, PWAT values currently around 1" or less this
afternoon. Increasing clouds overnight with the front. Latest
radar imagery shows little/no shower activity near or along the
boundary...but will keep sc showers across the northern half of
the forecast overnight into the first part of Sunday, though based
on radar trends and high res models think any activity would be
fairly isolated. Could see additional showers develop inland with
best chances across the sw zones behind the front Sunday
afternoon, with better convergence and moisture. An isolated tstm
possible but at this time looks fairly stable. Low level thickness
values support highs near climo, in the mid 70s to low 80s.
Guidance continues to hit the fog hard again tonight, but think
winds will stay up enough to preclude widespread development.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Sat...High pressure will extend over the area from the
north Sunday night, shifting off the east coast Monday night.
Coolest night will be Sunday night with low level E/NE flow.
Overnight lows in the 60s. Low level flow will gradually veer
through the day Monday as high shifts eastward and front
approaches from the west. Low level thickness values support highs
in the upper 70s to lower 80s...and will feel much more pleasant
with dewpoints in the 60s. Overnight lows Monday night in the mid
60s to low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 3 PM Sat... Moisture will begin to overspread the area from
the south into Tuesday as winds veer to SSW ahead of a cold front
approaching from the west. Reintroduced slight chance PoPs Monday
for the southwest half of the forecast area, gradually spreading
northeast Monday night and covering the entire area on Tuesday.
The front will move off the coast Wednesday morning with drier and
cooler air filtering in behind it for Thursday into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term /Through Sunday/...
As of 3 PM Sat...VFR conditions currently. A weak cold front will
push south through the region overnight. Guidance and forecast
soundings continue to show sub-VFR conditions developing with
stratus and fog. Think stratus is a good bet, but uncertain about
the fog, with winds likely to stay up. Will keep at MVFR for now,
though IFR ceilings will be possible. MVFR ceilings may not lift
to VFR until late morning, early afternoon. Isolated showers
possible Sunday afternoon.

Long Term /Sunday night through Thursday/...
As of 3 PM Sat...Isolated showers possible Monday. Scattered
showers and storms Tuesday, with isolated showers possible
Wednesday. Surface winds from the NE 5-10 Sunday, E around 5 knots
Monday, S around 5 knots Tuesday and NE around 5 knots Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Sunday/...
As of 3 PM Sat...Latest obs show N/NE winds 5-10 kt with seas 3-5
feet north of Ocracoke and 2-4 ft south...mainly in long period
swell energy 2-5ft/10-11 seconds from distant Karl. A cold front
will push through the waters overnight, with NE winds 10-20 kt
developing behind it. Will issue SCA for waters Ocracoke north for
building seas tonight into Sunday afternoon. NE surge 15-20 kt
expected behind the front allowing seas to build to 4-6 ft. NE
winds 10-20 kt Sunday, diminishing to 10-15 kt late afternoon.

Long Term /Sunday night through Thursday/...
As of 3 PM Sat...Pressure gradient through the period will not be
very tight, with wind speeds no higher than 10-15 knots. Winds
will steadily veer Sunday night through Tuesday, with the high
moving off to the east on Monday and a cold front approaching from
the west Tuesday. The front will move off the coast Wednesday
morning, with a NE flow setting up across the area behind it. Seas
will average 3-5 feet Sunday night, and 2-4 feet Monday through
Thursday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ095-
     103-104.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 1 PM EDT
     Sunday for AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM/CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...CQD/HSA
AVIATION...CQD/HSA
MARINE...CQD/HSA



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