Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 201429
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1029 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA THIS MORNING...THEN LIFT BACK NORTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THEN FRONT WILL LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN
FINALLY PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1015 AM WED...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SOUTH OF THE AREA IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE FEAR LATE THIS MORNING.
WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS THE AREAS THIS MORNING IS BURNING OFF
QUICKLY PER VISIBLE SATELLITE AND EXPECT IT TO BE PRETTY MUCH
DISSIPATED AROUND 15Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE
PAMLICO SOUND THAT WILL AFFECT DARE...HYDE AND TYRRELL COUNTIES
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HRRR HAS THE SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE OBX
AROUND 17Z...OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE TO FORECAST TODAY. THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE VERY SOUTHERN CWA THIS
MORNING...THEN LIKELY LIFT BACK NORTH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
COMBINED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE PIVOTING THROUGH THE UPPER LOW
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR
CONVECTION. THE AIRMASS REMAINS UNSTABLE AND MOIST WITH PWATS
AROUND 1.75-2" AND EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. CONTINUED WITH SC/LOW CHANCE POPS. LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 715 AM WED...WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT BACK INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT THEN STALL. ANY EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD WANE WITH
LOSS OF HEATING. THOUGH COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM NEAR THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WED...LOW LEVEL WSW FLOW IN COMBINATION WITH DEVELOPING
WNW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT AND RISING THICKNESSES WILL SET UP VERY WARM
CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL REACH
LOW TO POSSIBLY MID 90S INLAND WITH UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES, WITH
HEAT INDICES AROUND 100 INLAND. RELATIVE LACK OF FORCING SHUD LIMIT
PRECIP CHANCES THRU EARLY THU AFTN BUT LINGERING WEAK SFC BNDRY AND
SUBTLE SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE UPPER FLOW MAY HELP TRIGGER A FEW
TSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTN.

UPPER TROF WILL DEEPEN OFF THE COAST LATE IN THE WEEK AND MOVE ONLY
SLOWLY FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS BLOCKY
PATTERN SETS WITH STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION. THIS DEVELOPING UPPER PATTERN WILL PLACE EASTERN NC
IN PERSISTENT NNW FLOW ALOFT AND SHORT WAVES MOVING THRU THE FLOW
WILL TRIGGER OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION THU NIGHT THRU SAT.
THIS PATTERN MAY ALSO FAVOR MCS DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER TIMING THESE
SMALL SCALE SYSTEMS IN THE LONGER TERM WILL BE DIFFICULT. HAVE KEPT
CHANCE POPS IN THRU SAT. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE N SUN AND
MON AND CONT INTO TUE WITH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR AND LIMIT THREAT FOR
PRECIP...ESPCLY MON AND TUE. HIGHS WILL AGAIN REACH LOWER 90S INLAND
FRI THEN WITH NE FLOW SAT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY
LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM WED...WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS RTES THIS MORNING IS
BURNING OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING PER VISIBLE SATELLITE AND EXPECT
IT TO BE DISSIPATED BY 15Z OR SHORTLY AFTERWARD WITH PRED VFR
RETURNING. ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WED...SOME FOG/ST WILL BE POSS EARLY THU MORN THEN
MAINLY VFR REST OF DAY WITH SOME WIDELY SCT TO SCT CONVECTION POSS
LATE. BOUTS OF SHRA AND TSRA EXPECTED THU NIGHT THRU SAT WITH SHORT
WAVES MOVING ACROSS IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME BRIEF
PDS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WHEN SHRA/TSRA CROSS OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR
EXPECTED. PRECIP CVRG EXPECTED TO DIMINISH A BIT SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRES AND A LITTLE DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE N...SHLD BE MAINLY
VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 715 AM WED...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH
THE VERY SOUTHERN WATERS THIS MORNING...IT WILL THEN LIKELY LIFT
BACK NORTH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. LATEST OBS SHOW NW/NE WINDS
5-15KT AND SEAS 2-4FT. WINDS LESS THAN 15KT EXPECTED TODAY...THEN
LESS THAN 10KT TONIGHT WITH SEAS 2-3FT. WIND DIRECTIONS HOWEVER
WILL BE CHALLENGING TODAY ESP SOUTH OF LOOKOUT. LIKELY N/NW BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY EARLY THEN BACKING BECOMING SW THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. NORTH OF LOOKOUT MAINLY N/NE TODAY BECOMING E/NE TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM WED...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THU MORN WILL BECOME S
AOB 10 KTS THU AFTN. SW WINDS EXPECTED 10 TO 15 KTS THU NIGHT AHEAD
OF APPROACHING FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PUSH S ACROSS THE WTRS
FRI AND FRI NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING N/NE IN ITS WAKE WITH SPEEDS
MAINLY BELOW 15 KTS. NE WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN FROM THE N WITH WEAK LOW WELL OFF THE CST. ECMWF HAS
TIGHTER GRDNT WITH DEEPER LOW OFF THE CST AND SHOWS WINDS NEAR 20
KTS...FOR NOW LEANED CLOSER TO GFS WITH SPEEDS MAINLY 10 TO 15 KTS.
SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET THU THRU SAT MORN. AS NE FLOW GRAD
INCREASE LATER SAT AND SUN WILL HAVE 4 FOOT SEAS DEVELOP OUTER WTRS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF/CQD
NEAR TERM...SK/CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...BTC/RF
AVIATION...RF/SK/CQD
MARINE...RF/CQD





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