Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 280705
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
305 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the area will weaken today. A tropical system
off the coast of the southeast US will move northeast then north
this weekend. It will weaken to a remnant low pressure system
Sunday night, then linger along the southeast coast through
Wednesday. It will finally lift out to the NE as a cold front and
upper level trof approach from the west Thursday and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 245 am Sat...Models in good agreement through the short
term. Narrow ridge of high pressure extending into the state from
the Atlantic will weaken today as the region becomes increasingly
influenced by the northwest moving tropical system off the coast
of the southeast US. Made only minor adjustments to timing of
precip, trimming back PoPs a bit this morning, while keeping
likely rain chances this afternoon. Highs today in the lower to
mid 80s, except upper 70s Outer Banks.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 245 am Sat...Tropical system off the coast of the southeast
US will continue moving northwest with a turn to the north by
Sunday morning. Low level theta-E ridge builds over the forecast
area. Model soundings nearly saturated from bottom to top in deep
southerly flow. Likely PoPs all areas. Lows in the lower 70s
throughout.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 245 am Sat...TD2 forecast by NHC to strengthen a bit to
Tropical Storm Bonnie as moves toward South Carolina coast thru
late Sunday. System then forecast to weaken to depression as it
drifts NE off the North Carolina coast thru mid week. Locally
heavy rainfall and increased rip current threat along the beaches
are main impacts we will see from this system.

Sunday through Monday...Deeper tropical moisture will cont over
the region N of the trop depression/storm. This will lead to
bouts of numerous shra and isold to scattered TSRA...and cont
likely pops thru most of the period. Given preciptable water
values around 2 inches will see locally very heavy rainfall with
minor poor drainage type flooding possible. Will be muggy with
highs mostly in lower 80s and lows upper 60s to lower 70s.

Monday Night and Tuesday...Decent coverage of shra and a few TSRA
will continue as the weakening low drifts to off the southern NC
coast. Will cont likely to high chance pops with again locally
heavy rainfall possible. Despite the low near the area winds are
not forecast to be very strong given how weak the low is expected
to be. Little temp change with highs again mainly lower 80s and
lows upper 60s/around 70.

Tuesday Night through Friday...As the low slowly dissipates, rain
chances and coverage will diminish and pattern will become more
summery with typical diurnal convection across the interior with
lesser chances along the beaches. Temps will remain above climo
with heights/thicknesses above average with highs well into the
80s and lows in the upper 60s to near 70.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term /Through Tonight/...
As of 245 am Sat...Patchy MVFR fog through sunrise, with the best
chance along coastal plain terminals PGV and ISO. Once that burns
off, VFR through the morning, then sub-VFR conditions spread
across the entire area from SE to NW as moisture deepens ahead of
tropical system approaching coast of SE US. Scattered showers will
spread north today and become numerous tonight. Instability in
place for thunder, but overcast skies will keep storms widely
scattered. Winds will be from the east 10-15 knots today and
around 5 knots overnight.

Long Term /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 245 am Sat...Tropical Depression 2 or Trop Storm Bonnie
forecast to reach S Carolina coast later Sunday then drift to off
the N Carolina coast thru mid week. Scattered to numerous showers
expected thru the period with a few TSRA possible. These showers
will lead to periods of sub vfr at times...especially thru Tue.
With low levels very moist could also have some light fog/lower
stratus develop during the late night/early morning hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Tonight/...
As of 245 am Sat...Models in good agreement in the short term.
The marine area will become increasingly influenced by the
tropical system off the coast of the SE US. Winds will remain
rather light, no higher than 10-15 knots. Both NWPS and WaveWatch
build seas to 6 feet in the outer waters of the southern and
central coastal waters today and tonight. This seems slightly
overdone so will continue to cap waves at 5 feet for now.

Long Term /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 245 am Sat...Predominant SE to S winds 10 to 15 kts with
some gusts 15 to 20 kts through Monday with weak tropical system
S of area. As the weakening low drifts NE to off the N Carolina
coast Tue and Wed will see winds grad become more E to NE 5 to 15
kts most waters...however some uncertainty with track and
intensity of low still in doubt. Wavewatch and SWAN continue to
show marginal 6 foot seas outer central waters through
Monday...otherwise mainly 3 to 5 feet. By Tue and Wed seas
primarily 3-4 feet...however again this will depend greatly on
eventual track/intensity of the weakening trop low.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...RF/TL
AVIATION...HSA/RF
MARINE...HSA/RF



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