Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 211122
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
722 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST
EARLY THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY
AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP
THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY THEN HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST WILL PUSH OFFSHORE EARLY THIS
MORNING, OTHERWISE EXPECTING MAINLY A DRY/WARM DAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY.

SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE MEAN UPPER TROF POSITION OVER
THE EASTERN STATES WILL CUT OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION TODAY. LOCALLY, AFTER THE PASSAGE OF AN INITIAL UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE THIS MORNING, WESTERLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL HELP PUSH HIGH
TEMPS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S TODAY. MUCH OF TODAY WILL FEATURE
SUNNY SKIES AFTER MID LEVEL CLOUDS CLEAR OUT THIS MORNING AND
BEFORE SOME LATE DIURNAL CLOUDS FORM WITH DEVELOPING COOL POOL TO
THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCD WITH PASSAGE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO THE
NORTH WILL PUSH THRU THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. EXPECT
LITTLE IF ANY ASSOCD PRECIP WITH FROPA GIVEN THE DRY SUB CLOUD
LAYER AND WNW FLOW ALOFT. A GOOD SHOT OF CAA ARRIVES AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S INLAND AS A LIGHT BREEZE
PREVENTS A FURTHER DROP OFF. TEMPS WILL REMAIN UPPER 50S TO NEAR
60 AT THE COAST WITH WIND OFF WARMER WATER.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 355 AM TUES...00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE. A STRONG CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SWING
THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
BEFORE FINALLY GETTING KICKED OUT INTO THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY AND SLOWLY TRACK
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS WILL BUILD EAST TOWARDS THE AREA
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE AS WELL. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES WILL LEAD TO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH SOME GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30-35 MPH FOR THE NORTHERN
OUTER BANKS. MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THOUGH FAR
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY DARE/TYRRELL COUNTIES
COULD SEE SCATTERED RAIN DUE TO MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE
STRENGTHENING LOW TO THE NORTHEAST COINCIDENT WITH SIGNIFICANT
LIFT IN PLACE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN LATE THURSDAY WILL SHUNT
ANY PRECIP CHANCES WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...LEADING TO A DRY
REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A QUICK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...THOUGH MOISTURE STARVED SO NOT EXPECTED PRECIP. STRONG
RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE BELOW CLIMO WITH MAX
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
MID 40S...WITH LOW/MID 50S ON THE BEACHES. PLEASANT AND SEASONABLY
MILD CONDITIONS WITH NEAR CLIMO TEMPS AND SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 70S
FRIDAY AND INTO THE MID 70S BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z WED/...
VFR EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PERIOD. PRECIP GRAZING COASTAL SECTIONS
ASSOCD WITH WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL REMAIN EAST THE TAF SITES THIS
MORNING. THEREAFTER INTERVALS OF SCT/BKN CLOUDS AS A DIGGING
UPPER TROF BUT DRY ASSOCD SFC FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA TODAY AND
PUSHES THRU THE AREA THIS EVENING.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM TUES...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN
OVERALL DRY AIRMASS THUS DO NOT EXPECT REDUCTIONS IN VSBY OR
CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF MORNING FOG
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
S/SW WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TODAY BUT REMAIN
LARGELY BLO 15 KTS THRU THIS EVENING. STRONG POSTFRONTAL CAA SURGE
WILL BOOST NW WINDS TO NEAR 20 KTS EARLY WED MORNING. 2-3 FT SEAS
TODAY BUILD 3-5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM TUES...HOISTED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR MUCH OF THE
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS. A TIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN A STRENGTHENING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE 20-30 KNOTS
WITH SEAS BUILDING 6-8 FT FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS. THE
LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION ALLOWING THE
TIGHTEST GRADIENT TO SHIFT NORTHEAST AS WELL. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO
SOUNDS BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
EAST OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE WATERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. NOT MUCH NORTHERLY WIND SURGE EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT SO SEAS MOSTLY 2-4 FT FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 1-3 FT
ELSEWHERE. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS CONTINUES TO RUN A LITTLE HIGH SO
BLENDED PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LATEST NWPS/WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE FOR
SEAS FORECAST WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 2 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ130-131-135-156.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ150-152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...BTC/DAG
MARINE...BTC/DAG





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