Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 251042
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
642 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY TODAY AS DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF OF
THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT AND MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA
SUNDAY WHILE PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 640 AM SATURDAY...COMPLICATED FORECAST THE NEXT 36 HOURS. A
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER PLAINS WILL
MOVE EAST THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL DAMPEN AS IT ENTERS THE
CONFLUENT UPPER PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN US DOMINATED BY A DEEP
CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OFFSHORE WHILE A LOW PRESSURE AREA
APPROACHES THE APPALACHIANS LATE TODAY. TONIGHT SECONDARY
CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WITH THIS
LOW BECOMING THE DOMINANT FEATURE SUNDAY.

AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL OVERSPREAD EASTERN NC
THIS MORNING AND ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION NOW
ABOUT TO ENTER THE COASTAL PLAIN, WILL INITIALLY BE INHIBITED BY
A VERY DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER WHICH IS FORECAST TO BECOME SATURATED
DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST. THUS WILL RAMP UP POPS
FROM CHANCE THIS MORNING TO CATEGORICAL THIS AFTERNOON.
COMPLICATING THE FORECAST IS A DEVELOPING EAST-WEST BOUNDARY
FORECAST TO BISECT THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL WARM TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 70
DEGREES BUT WILL THIS BE ENOUGH TO DESTABLIZE THE ATMOSPHERE TO
ALLOW FOR DEEP CONVECTION? MODEL SURFACE BASED LI`S REMAIN ABOVE 0
SUGGESTING THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE ELEVATED WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE
DAMAGING WIND THREAT BUT STILL SUPPORT MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. SPC
HAS PLACED ALL OF EASTERN NC IN MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
TODAY WITH THE SLIGHT RISK AREA JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THE TREND IN
THESE OUTLOOKS HAS BEEN TO MOVE THE SEVERE RISK SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD
DURING THE PAST 48 HOURS THUS WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT IT
LOOKS LIKE THE BEST RISK WILL OCCUR JUST TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM SATURDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WILL
DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST THIS EVENING. THE 00Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF
MODELS MOVE THE INITIAL BATCH OF PRECIPITATION RAPIDLY OFF OF THE
COAST AROUND 00Z. IMPLYING ONLY A SCATTERED PRECIPITATION THREAT
OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE A SLOWER SOLUTION
WITH DRYING EXPECTED AFTER 06Z THUS WILL HOLD ON TO CATEGORICAL
(COAST) AND LIKELY (INLAND) POPS THIS EVENING AND DECREASE TO
CHANCE AFTER 06Z. THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE
EXTREME NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM SAT...THE GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING/SOLUTION OF SURFACE FEATURES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SEE NATIONAL DISCUSSIONS FOR DETAILS. FOR NOW HAVE USED A BLEND OF
THE TWO. THE 2ND OF TWO SURFACE LOWS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST. HAVE KEPT
POPS AT CHANCE. A DRY COUPLE OF DAYS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TEMPORARILY NOSING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHERN MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. MODELS THEN SPIN UP AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF ON TUESDAY AND MOVE IT
NORTHEAST...TRACKING IT JUST OFF THE COAST THURSDAY. MODEL
GUIDANCE POPS GIVING LIKELY FOR MID/LATE WEEK BUT WITH STILL A
GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WILL CONTINUE TO CAP POPS AT 50% FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 AM SATURDAY...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MID TO
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS DRY AIR WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE OVER EASTERN
NC AND INITIALLY HELP TO DISSIPATE APPROACHING PRECIPITATION.
DURING THE AFTERNOON EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN TO DEVELOP AND
EVENTUALLY MOISTEN THE AIRMASS SUCH THAT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
DROP TO MVFR LEVELS 18 TO 21Z. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY 00Z AND
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT IN RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS. THE STEADIER RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO END BY 06Z WITH ONLY SPOTTY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
THEREAFTER. WILL FORECAST IFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE AFTER THE
STEADY PRECIPITATION ENDS BUT IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE
AVIATION GUIDANCE HAS BEEN OVER FORECASTING IFR CONDITIONS OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WED/...
AS OF 4 AM SAT...SUB-VFR FORECAST IN SCATTERED SHOWERS SUNDAY.
ATMOS TOO STABLE FOR THUNDER. SURFACE FLOW FROM THE NORTH AROUND
10 KNOTS. MON AND TUE VFR/DRY...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS RETURN
WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS MONDAY 10-15 KNOTS AND NORTH TUESDAY
AROUND 10 KNOTS...EAST LESS THAN 10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 AM SATURDAY...COMPLICATED FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 36
HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING IS PRODUCING
WESTERLY FLOW 15 KT OR LESS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AND EASTERLY
NORTH. A WEST TO EAST BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
PRONOUNCED OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AND
EASTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT PORTIONS OF
THE WATERS SOUTH OF OCRACOKE COULD SEE SW WINDS TO 25 KT AND SEAS
AROUND 6 FT LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HAVE CAPPED WINDS AT 20 KT
AND SEAS AT 5 FT FOR NOW BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. LATE
TONIGHT THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME WESTERLY ALL WATERS LATE
EXCEPT FOR THE EXTREME NORTH WHERE A FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
CAUSING THE FLOW TO TURN MORE NORTHERLY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM SAT...JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY NORTHERLY FLOW. SMALL CRAFT
WINDS/SEAS FORECAST DEVELOP ON THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE AND A TRAILING FRONT MOVE OFF THE
COAST. PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS ON MONDAY WITH CONDITIONS
BECOMING SUB-SCA ONCE AGAIN. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN MS
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
KEEPING THE FLOW NORTHERLY GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS WITH SEAS RUNNING
3-5 FEET NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT AND 2-4 FEET SOUTH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR CONTENTNEA CREEK AT HOOKERTON WHERE
MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FLOOD WARNING
HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NEUSE RIVER IN KINSTON. MINOR
FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT KINSTON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JAC/JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...JME/HSA
MARINE...JME/HSA
HYDROLOGY...BTC


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