Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KMHX 170730
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
330 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY WILL BUILD DOWN
THE EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY THEN DISSIPATE SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WILL
MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. HOWEVER...MODELS ALL SHOW BOUNDARY
LAYER VORT PASSING THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER RH
WILL REMAIN HIGH SO WILL KEEP IN CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA
TODAY. ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT TO KEEP IN MENTION OF THUNDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...SIMILAR SETUP TO TODAY...VORT ENERGY PASSING
THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH PLENTY OF RH TO WORK WITH. LEFT IN
MENTION OF THUNDER ONLY ALONG COASTAL WATERS AND OUTER BANKS
CORRESPONDING TO BEST CAPE VALUES. ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY BE TOO
STABLE ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...A MOIST LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE PRESENT
OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TO BEGIN THE PERIOD AND WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE AT LEAST DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER
PATTERN WILL FEATURE A BROAD TROF OVER THE EAST THRU THE END OF
THE WEEK, THEN AS A MORE ZONAL FLOW RETREATS TO THE NORTH A WEAK
UPPER LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE SE STATES.

A PIECE OF WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING THRU THE BROAD TROF
THURSDAY SO HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR INLAND AREAS AND LOW
CHANCE ALONG THE COAST. MOISTURE IS FAIRLY SHALLOW THURSDAY SO
ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES EXPECTED. ANY LEFTOVER PRECIP SHUD
BE MOVING OFFSHORE AS THE WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST THU EVE. WILL
KEEP FORECAST DRY ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE BUILDS DOWN
THE COAST BUT SHUD CONT TO SEE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS IN THE MOIST
LOW LEVEL FLOW ESPECIALLY ALONG COASTAL AREAS FRIDAY.

HIGHS BOTH THU AND FRI A BIT BLO NORMAL GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER,
MAINLY UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80.

MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON SOLUTION FOR WEAK LOW PRESSURE
TO DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE OF THE SE COAST THEN MOVE
IT NE ALONG THE BNDRY OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SOLUTION WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO ADVERSELY IMPACT WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER EASTERN NC
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST FOR THE WEEKEND. A MID RANGE MODEL
CONCENSUS WOULD KEEP MOST OF ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION OFFSHORE SO
WILL HAVE JUST SLIGHT CHC POPS ALONG THE COAST FOR NOW BUT LATER
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO TREND HIGHER (ESP FOR INLAND AREAS) IF
SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS SUPPORT A WETTER SCENARIO THIS WEEKEND. EVEN
IF A WETTER FORECAST DOESNT PAN OUT, THERE IS LIKELY TO BE QUITE A
BIT OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA WHICH ALONG WITH ONSHORE FLOW WILL
KEEP HIGH TEMPS MAINLY A FEW DEGS BLO NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND.

OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL
FLOW SHIFTING S/SW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DEEP UPPER TROF AND
ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODEL CONCENSUS SUPPORTS A
MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR NOW. CHC
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BEGIN MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING THEN A
GRADUAL TAPERING OFF OF POPS FROM WEST TO EAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. HIGHS MONDAY REACH LOW TO MID 80S AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THEN BACK TO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 TUESDAY POST FRONT.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 330 AM WED...MIXED VFR/MVFR EARLY THIS MORNING WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST MOVING SOUTH. EXPECT VFR AT ALL
FOUR TERMINALS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING AND CARRYING THROUGH THE
DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED THUNDER
MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS LIGHT FROM THE EAST TO NORTHEAST.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...MAY SEE CIGS LOWER TO MVFR (OR LOWER) FROM TIME
TO TIME THRU THE PERIOD GIVEN THE PERSISTANT MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW
THRU THE WEEKEND. THE BEST CHANCES FOR LOWERED CIGS WOULD BE LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING AS THE CYCLICAL NOCTURNAL INVERSION
STRENGTHENS AFTER MIDNIGHT THEN WANES AFTER SUNRISE EACH MORNING.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR MORE PERSISTANT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE COAST AS LOW PRESSURE RIDES
UP THE SE COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 330 AM WED...FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WILL
MOVE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST TODAY. EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW ALL
WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT NO HIGHER THAN 10-15 KNOTS AND LONG
PERIOD SWELL OF 14-15 SECONDS ACROSS ALSO ALL COASTAL WATERS.
BOTH SWAN AND WAVEWATCH WAY OVERDONE ON SEAS. LATEST BUOY REPORTS
HAS ONLY 2-3 FEET OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BUT MODELS SAYING IT
SHOULD BE SEVERAL FEET HIGHER. HAVE USED WAVEWATCH BUT CAPPED SEAS
NORTH OF OREGON INLET AND SOUTH OF OCRACOKE AT 4 FEET AND WILL
DROP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THOSE ZONES. FOR THE OREGON INLET
TO OCRACOKE LEG I CAPPED IT AT 6 FEET FROM 18Z TODAY TO 06Z
THURSDAY AND WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM WED...SWELL FROM DISTANT EDOUARD WILL BE WANING
EARLY THIS FORECAST PERIOD BUT SEAS WILL AGAIN BUILD AS NE FLOW
STRENGTHENS ALONG THE COAST ON FRIDAY. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THEN
POSSIBLE AS LOW PRESSURE RIDES NE ALONG A STALLED FRONT JUST
OFFSHORE INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. WINDS/SEAS
DECREASE AS THE LOW MOVES NE OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...HSA/BTC
MARINE...HSA/BTC





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.