Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KMHX 011900
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
300 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WED...SCT DIURNAL STRATO CU THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DISSIPATE BY EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. TEMPS TOPPING
OUT IN THE LOW 80S THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG/LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP
LATE AS SIMILAR PATTERN OVER E NC AS LAST NIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME
CALM AND SKIES CLEAR. X-OVER TEMPS WILL BE EXCEEDED ONCE AGAIN
WITH DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON CURRENTLY IN THE LOW 60S...AND LOWS
TONIGHT EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 50S ONCE AGAIN. BEST BET FOR FOG
WILL BE AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HAVE ADDED PATCHY TO AREAS
FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WED...SAME PATTERN ON THURSDAY WITH LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES IDENTICAL TO WEDNESDAY. EXPECT SFC HIGH PRES TO BE
CENTERED OVERHEAD SO WINDS LIGHT AND VAR THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS
ONCE AGAIN IN THE LOWER TO PERHAPS A FEW MID 80S. FOG AND LOW
STRATUS WILL MIX OUT MID MORNING TO A 2-3K FT SCT STRATO CU DECK
BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...CONT DRY WEATHER THRU FRI AS MID/UPR RDG
CROSSES. FRI WL BE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W FRI NIGHT AND CROSS LATE FRI NIGHT
AND SAT MORN. MAIN BAND OF SHRA AND SCT TSRA WILL CROSS LATER FRI
NIGHT THEN EXIT THE CST EARLY SAT. CONT LIKELY POPS LATE FRI
NIGHT...SVR THREAT CONTS TO LOOK MARGINAL AT BEST WITH LIMITED
INSTAB OVER THE REGION. S/SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP
TEMPS MILD FRI NIGHT WITH 65 TO 70 MOST SPOTS. WITH CAA DELAYED A
BIT SAT THINK WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPR 70S. COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN SAT AFTN WITH CLEARING SKIES. HIGH PRES
WILL BUILD S OF THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND SUN WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPS...LOWS SUN MORN WILL DROP INTO THE UPR 40S COOLER INLAND
SPOTS WITH HIGHS SUN MAINLY 65 TO 70. HIGH PRES WILL SLIDE
OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CONT DRY WX MON THRU WED. TEMPS WILL
GRAD MODERATE WITH UPR 70S FOR HIGHS BY WED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU/...
AS OF 3 PM WED...ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS EXPECTED
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THUR AM AS SIMILAR WEATHER
PATTERN EXISTS OVER EAST NC. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS FOR THURSDAY
WITH ANY FOG AND STRATUS MIXING OUT TO A SCT 2-3 K FT STRATO CU
DECK BY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MON/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...WILL LIKELY AGAIN SEE SOME FOG/ST AND SUB
VFR CONDITIONS LATE THU NIGHT AND EARLY FRI WITH LIGHT WINDS OVER
THE REGION. VFR EXPECTED FRI AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W
WITH LOW LVL FLOW BECOMING S/SW. SCT TO NUMEROUS SHRA AND A FEW
TSRA FRI NIGHT AS COLD FRONT CROSSES WITH SOME OCNL REDUCTIONS TO
CIGS/VSBYS. SHRA WILL MOVE E OF TAF SAT BY EARLY SAT WITH VFR REST
OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE S AND MUCH DRIER AIR
WORKS IN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU/...
AS OF 3 PM WED...CURRENT OBS INDICATE N WINDS 10-15 KT WITH OCNL
HIGHER GUSTS WITH SEAS 2 TO 5 FT...HIGHEST OUTER NRN/CENTRAL
WATERS. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS PERFORMING BETTER THAN WAVEWATCH SO WILL
BASE FCST ON THIS. THE NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING BEFORE VEERING TO NORTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
DECREASING A BIT IN STRENGTH AS HIGH PRES RIDGES INTO THE WATERS.
SEAS WILL CONTINUE 3 TO 5 FT NORTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS TO 2 TO 4 FT
SOUTHERN AREAS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MON/...
AS OF 230 PM WED...LIGHT MAINLY NE WINDS THU NIGHT AS HIGH PRES
CROSSES. WIND WILL GRAD BECOME S AT 10 TO 15 KTS LATER FRI AHEAD
OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. S/SW WINDS WILL PEAK 15 TO 25 KTS FRI
NIGHT AHEAD OF FRONT THEN SHIFT TO WNW 15 TO 20 KTS IN WAKE OF
FRONT SAT AFTN. AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE S SAT NIGHT AND SUN
EXPECT NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS SAT EVENING TO BECOME LIGHT W SUNDAY.
FLOW WILL BECOME SSW 10 TO 15 KTS MON AS THE HIGH SLIDES FURTHER
E. SEAS WL BE MAINLY 2 TO 4 FT THU NIGHT AND FRI WITH POSS SOME 5
FOOTERS FAR OUTER NRN/CNTRL WTRS. AS SSW WINDS INCREASE FRI NIGHT
EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD TO 5 TO 7 FT AND THEY WILL CONT IN THAT RANGE
THRU SAT AS WINDS SHIFT TO WNW. SEAS WILL GRAD SUBSIDE SUN AND MON
AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT WITH 2 TO 3 FT MOST WTRS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...TL/RF
MARINE...TL/RF








USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.