Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 171956

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
256 PM EST Sat Feb 17 2018

An area of low pressure will move northeast across eastern NC
this evening, followed by high pressure passing through Sunday.
The high will move off the mid-Atlantic coast Monday and remain
there through mid week. The next cold front move into the area
late next week.


As of 3 pm Sat...A weak surface low will move off the coast of
the northern Outer Banks this evening. PoPs will taper off from
southwest to northeast this evening with dry conditions across
the southwest late this evening. Then after midnight, as the
band of low-level moisture behind the front sweeps through from
the northwest, PoPs will bump PoPs back up to chance across most
of the area through 09Z, then ending quickly from northwest to
southeast from 09-12Z as moisture sweeps off the coast.


As of 3 pm Sat...Skies will clear quickly from northwest to
southeast in the morning as high pressure expands across the
area. Highs will be in the mid 50s northeast to lower 60s


As of 230 AM Sat...High pressure moves off the mid-Atlantic
coast Sunday night, then extends over area from offshore late
Monday through Wednesday. Another cold front will slowly cross
the region late Thursday or Thursday night then gradually
dissipate on Friday.

Sun night through Wed...The high slides offshore Mon and will
cont off the coast through Wed as upr rdg builds off the coast.
Kept small pops in Mon with weak isent lift as WAA increases.
Mainly dry Tue thru Wed Night with area in warm sector with
little to no forcing. Very mild this period with highs in the
lower 70s inland Mon increase to the 75 to 80 dgr range Tue and
Wed. Beaches as usual will be cooler with mainly 60s.

Thu and Fri...Leaned toward ECMWF/Canadian with a slower and
weaker cold front sagging into the region Thu night then washing
out Fri. Given slower fropa bumped up temps a bit Thu and
lowered or removed pops. Kept small pop in Thu night into Fri
with front over region but moisture and forcing look weak with
little in the way of rainfall expected. Highs Thu will again
reach 75 to 80 inland with warm sector conditions. Bit cooler
Fri with front S of region...however hgts/thicknesses remain
high so mild temps cont with upr 60s/lower 70s inland to
lower/mid 60s cst.


Short Term /through Sunday/...
As of 1240 PM Sat...MVFR conditions have recently developed
across the airspace, and ceilings are expected to continue to
drop this afternoon. IFR ceilings are expected to develop along
the coast, including the TAF sites KOAJ and KEWN, by late
afternoon, and then spreading inland this evening to other the
other TAF sites, KPGV and KISO. Ceilings will come close to LIFR
levels tonight as clouds become thicker, and light rain/drizzle
is likely, which will also reduce visibilities to 3-4 miles.
Conditions will begin to improve Sunday morning with MVFR
conditions returning after sunrise, and then VFR and clear skies
returning by late morning.

Long Term /Sunday night through Thu/...
As of 230 AM Sat...Warm front like feature will lift thru
region late Sun night into Mon and could see some spotty very
light shra and lower cigs at times. VFR shld dominate Tue and
Wed with high pres sfc and aloft off the coast with mclr to PC


Short Term /through Sun/
As of 3 pm Sat...Low pressure will exit the coast of the
northern Outer Banks this evening, pulling a trailing front
across the marine zones overnight. High pressure will expand
across the area Sunday. Winds will quickly veer to southerly
this evening as the low lifts out and before the front passes
through. Winds will then quickly veer to northwest behind the
front. Winds will veer further to north to northeast Sunday.
Models going for minimal small craft conditions south of
Ocracoke tonight through Sunday afternoon, and the same for the
central waters where SCA now in effect. Have made ending time
21Z for all. Did not include a SCA for the Pamlico Sound, though
the far eastern edge of the sound may reach 25 knots for a brief
period late tonight.

Long Term /Sunday night through Thu/...
As of 230 AM Sat...The high will move offshore early next week
with SSE winds less than 15 kts Mon becoming SSW Tue and Wed at
the same speed.

Seas of 3 to 5 feet Sunday will subside to 2 to 4 ft Mon and
cont in the range thru Wed with the 4 foot seas confined to
outer waters.


MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Sunday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM EST
     Sunday for AMZ156.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 4 PM EST Sunday for AMZ158.



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