Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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165
FXUS62 KMHX 190006
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
706 PM EST Wed Jan 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE  WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY, THEN
ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE AND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 7 pm Wed...Clear skies overnight with a very dry airmass
in place. Lows will be in the mid/upr 30s interior with low 40s
on the coast. Winds range from calm to around 5 mph, so will
update wording. No other changes needed.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 410 PM Wed...A dry and pleasant day on tap for Thu with high
pres building into E NC with mostly sunny skies expected. Low
lvl thicknesses and MOS guide in good agreement with highs a bit
above normal, 55-60 degrees most areas, with low 50s on the OBX.

Another coolish evening Thur night with the high overhead and
good radiational cooling with lows around 40 area wide with calm
winds expected. Lows may be realized prior to midnight western
half as clouds will already be advecting in from the west in
advance of next cold front.

The cold front will progress rapidly through the FA on Fri.
Return flow is quite brief so moisture return will be limited
despite the decent forcing for ascent and latest 18/12Z model
suite has backed off a bit on QPF output. A look at SREF and
model sndg plumes indicate shower activity will be more on the
sct side so have advertised high chc sct showers through the
day. Temps will be warmer with the southerly winds and highs
will reach well into the 60s interior with near 60 readings OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 415 AM Wednesday...

Building heights aloft will allow for another window of drier
weather late Friday into the first half of Sunday. Our next
focus will be the development of a cut off upper level low by
late Saturday over Texas. This feature will move due east and
impact our weather through early next week. At first the deep
southwest flow ahead of the cut off low will be enough to return
moisture back to our area as early as Saturday afternoon. Good
overall agreement amongst the models is good enough to increase
pops Saturday afternoon into Sunday. However specifics are
somewhat muddy so we held capped chances for rain at less than
55% Saturday night, and around 55% Sunday. By Sunday night
however great model agreement is in place as the cut off low
mentioned above moves east, and a deep, moist flow of air heads
our way. Sunday night into Monday the rain may be heavy at times
with embedded thunderstorms. As the upper low moves near or even
overhead, rain chances decrease somewhat later Monday into
Tuesday as we transition from steadier rains to more showers.
Building heights and drier weather will mean a return to
complete dry weather by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term /through 12z Thurs/...
As of 7 PM Wednesday...VFR SKC through the TAF pd. Light to
calm winds overnight as high pres begins to build into the
region. Winds remain light on Thur with the high overhead. No fog
expected due to the dry atmos that will be in place.

Long Term /Wednesday Night through Sunday/...
As of 415 AM Wednesday...Weak high pressure builds quickly
Wednesday night and Thursday with VFR conditions expected.
Another round of showers crosses the region Friday with periods
of sub-VFR conditions again expected, before again improving
Saturday, the transitional day between systems. Sub VFR
conditions possible again Saturday night into Sunday as a new
system moves toward our area with rain expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Through Thursday/...
As of 7 PM Wed...Winds are northerly across the marine domain
behind the cold front. Have extended the SCA through the night
tonight as the N surge behind the front will allow for seas to
linger above 6 ft through the early morning hours. Winds will
become light on Thur as high pres builds into the E NC waters.
No changes needed to zones this evening.

Long Term /Thursday through Sunday/...
As of 415 AM Wednesday...High pressure will build across the
waters today and tonight. Strong low pressure will pass across
the Ohio and Tennessee Valley region Friday night through
Saturday with a weaker surface low moving east of our coastal
waters. Winds will veer to SE Friday then around to NW Saturday
as the low passes, but speeds should remain at or below 20
knots, but seas may briefly reach 6 feet late Friday night
before subsiding Saturday. Winds veer toward southeast later
Saturday into Sunday but remain below 20 knots. Seas build
during the period to 6 feet.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Thursday for AMZ152-154.
         Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EST this afternoon for
         AMZ156-158.


&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...HSA/TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...HSA/TL/EH
MARINE...HSA/TL/EH



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