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000
FXUS62 KMHX 251026
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
626 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH
LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 625 AM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING. AS
THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF OF THE COAST TODAY THE RESULTING
HEIGHT RISES WILL ALLOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST TO
BUILD OVER THE REGION. COOL DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
HAS BEEN AND WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO NORTH CAROLINA TODAY.
SKIES WILL BE SUNNY BUT AFTER A CHILLY START WITH RECORD TO NEAR
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE
LOWER TO MID 70S INLAND WHICH IS 10 DEGREES OR SO BELOW NORMAL
(HIGHS ALONG THE OUTER BANKS WILL ONLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S). WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY THIS MORNING AFTER SUNRISE
LEADS TO DIURNAL MIXING WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS
EXPECTED FROM MID AFTERNOON ON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE WITH CLEAR SKIES EARLY AND
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT BY LATE EVENING. AN AREA OF MIDDLE TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS PROJECTED BY THE MODELS TO STREAK WEST ACROSS
EASTERN NC LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AREAS. THESE CLOUDS MAY
RETARD RADIATIONAL COOLING LATE BUT THERE WILL A LARGE WINDOW FOR
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT AND COMBINED WITH THE DRY
AIRMASS (DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S) ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S INLAND AND MID
50S OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SAT...MODELS CONTINUE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. PATTERN WILL SHIFT FROM SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY THEN QUICKLY SHIFT TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
2ND HALF OF THE WEEK. UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY
WILL LIFT OUT SUNDAY WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING OVER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST. VORT ENERGY IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY
WHILE AT THE SAME TIME ANOTHER VORT CENTER IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS PASSES THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
BOUNDARY LAYER QUITE DRY AND SO EXPECT ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER BUT NO PRECIP. ON TUESDAY A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH
DURING THE DAY BUT AGAIN...LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO NO
MENTION OF RAIN. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS DRY ALSO. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND INLAND
OVER THE CAROLINAS. WITH RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT...LITTLE CHANCE
FOR ANY AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION TO DEVELOP SO REMOVED THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE AND KEPT IT DRY
AND WARM.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 625 AM SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE WITH VERY DRY AIR BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. COULD SEE A FEW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
THEN WINDS WILL DIMINISH. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHALLOW GROUND
FOG LATE TONIGHT BUT POTENTIAL OPAQUE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
INTO THE AREA LATE AND DISRUPTING RADIATIONAL COOLING AND DRYNESS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS LIMITING CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SAT...VFR. LIGHT WEST NORTHWEST WIND SUNDAY WILL
BECOME SOUTHWEST MONDAY THROUGH WED. NO PRECIP EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 625 AM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE WATERS FROM THE NORTHWEST
PRODUCING NORTHERLY FLOW OF 20 TO 25 KT THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH
WINDS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. 5-7 FT SEAS
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE TODAY CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN WATERS WHILE SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 5 FT BY 12Z TODAY SOUTHERN
WATERS. TONIGHT WINDS WILL BE FORECAST OUT OF THE NORTHWEST 10 TO
15 KT WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 SOUTHERN WATERS...2 TO 4 FT CENTRAL WATERS
AND 3 TO 5 FT NORTHERN WATERS.



LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SAT...MODELS CONTINUE IN VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT AND
USED A CONSENSUS BLEND. LOOKS LIKE A STRETCH OF GOOD BOATING
CONDITIONS IN STORE. LIGHT WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY WILL
BECOME LIGHT SOUTHWEST MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS NO HIGHER
THAN 15 KNOTS. SEAS 2-4 FEET SUNDAY THEN 2-3 MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ130-
     135-156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...JME/HSA
MARINE...JME/HSA