Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 231942
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
342 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY
AND MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY...THEN DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM WED...CONVECTION REMAINS ISOLATED/SCATTERED FOR
INLAND SECTIONS NEAR THE SEA-BREEZE. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
CONTINUES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WITH AN UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF STATES. AT THE SURFACE...THE BERMUDA HIGH
CONTINUES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WHILE THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
PERSISTS INLAND. A SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHED SW TO NE
ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL PUSH SE TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

19Z LAPS SOUNDING INDICATES A VERY MOIST COLUMN WITH PWATS 2.20
INCHES AND MODEST INSTABILITY AS LIFTED INDICES FALL BELOW -5 C
AND SBCAPE VALUES BUILD ABOVE 3000 J/KG. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED BUT REMAIN MUCH LESS COVERAGE THAN PREVIOUS DAYS
DUE TO LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND CONTINUED WEAK SHEAR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH ACROSS INLAND SECTIONS THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND LACK OF SEA-BREEZE TRIGGER...THOUGH SHOWER/TSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS NEAR THE GULF
STREAM. SW GRADIENT SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH MIXING TO INHIBIT FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH LOWS IN THE
LOWER 70S INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE OBX AND SOUTHERN COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM WED...THE COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS EASTERN NC THURSDAY...AND WILL
HELP FOCUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWATS CONTINUE ABOVE 2 INCHES THURS WITH LIFTED
INDICES -4 TO -5 C AND SBCAPE VALUES 2000-2500 J/KG. SHEAR WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY THURSDAY THOUGH REMAIN UNIDIRECTIONAL WSW. SOME
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE DUE TO MOIST UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND LOCATION OF RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET
JUST WEST OF THE CWA. BIGGEST THREAT AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. DO NOT EXPECT HAIL TO BE A MAJOR ISSUE WITH
FREEZING LEVELS OF 15K FT OR HIGHER...THOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES RANGE 1415-1425 METERS YIELDING
MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW 90S INLAND TO MID 80S ALONG THE COAST/OBX.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WED...GOOD CVRG OF SHRA/TSRA THU EVENING AS COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO REGION WITH UPR TRF JUST TO THE W. A FEW STRONG TO SVR
STORMS WILL BE POSS EARLY BEFORE INSTAB DROPS. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
SHIFT E OVERNIGHT WITH PRECIP TAPERING OFF OR POSS ENDING INLAND.
FRONT WILL STALL NEAR CST FRI AND GRAD WASHOUT...DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL BE NEAR OR E OF CST AND LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHC INLAND WITH
LOW CHC CST. FRI NIGHT THRU EARLY SUNDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY AS UPR TRF
LIFTS OUT WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. CONT ISOLD POP IMD CST FRI NIGHT AND
JUST INLAND SAT. ON SUNDAY MDLS DIFFER A BIT WITH 12Z GFS SLOWER TO
RETURN MOISTURE WHILE 00Z ECMWF BRINGS DEEPER MOISTURE BACK INLAND.
LOWERED POPS A BIT BUT CONT LOW CHC INLAND SUN AFTN. HIGHS WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 80S FRI AND SAT WITH UPR TRF CROSSING AND FRONT
WASHING OUT. LOWER 90S RETURN INLAND SUNDAY AS LOW LVL FLOW GOES SW.

ANOTHER RATHER DEEP UPR TRF AND ASSOC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONT CHC POPS MON AND MON NIGHT AS FRONT APPROACHES
AND REACHES ERN NC. FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL NEAR CST AGAIN BY TUE
HOWEVER ATMS DRIES SIGNIF AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH PRECIP TUE OR
WED... WITH BEST CHCS CST EARLY TUE. LOWER 90S MON AHEAD OF FRONT
THEN TEMPS WILL COOL INTO THE 80S TUE AND WED WITH FRONT IN VCNTY
AND LOWER HGTS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 140 PM WED...MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH
COULD SEE BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO VSBYS/CEILINGS DUE TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. SW FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT
LIMITING THE FOG POTENTIAL. COULD AGAIN SEE REDUCTIONS TO AVIATION
CONDITIONS THURS AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSES EASTERN NC WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...GOOD CVRG OF SHRA AND TSRA THU EVENING WITH
OCNL REDUCTIONS IN CIGS/VSBYS. PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF AND END LATER
THU HOWEVER WITH LIGHT WINDS MAY SEE SOME FOG AND ST DEVELOP. MAINLY
VFR FRI THRU SUNDAY WITH LIMITED IF ANY PRECIP...HOWEVER LIGHT WINDS
AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FRI NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT COULD RESULT IN
PATCHY FOG AND ST WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS. SHRA AND TSRA WILL
INCREASE IN CVRG LATER SUN NIGHT AND MON AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES
WITH SOME BRIEF PDS OF REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 325 PM WED...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE SW WINDS
5-15 KT AND SEAS 2-3 FT IN MEDIUM PERIOD SEAS 7-8 SECONDS. DIAMOND
SHOALS HAS STARTED TO SEE GUSTS NEAR 20 KT BUT SEAS REMAIN AROUND
3 FT. LOCAL SWAN AND WAVEWATCH HAVE BEEN OVERDONE BY ABOUT ONE
FOOT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...SO ADJUSTED SEAS SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS THOUGH ONCE FREQUENT GUSTS TO 20 KT OVERSPREADS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS...EXPECT 4-5 FT SEAS FOR THE
OUTER FRINGES OF THE COASTAL ZONES. THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN
OFFSHORE WITH A PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SW WINDS WILL GENERALLY RANGE 10-20 KT THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. SEAS AROUND
2-4 FT THIS EVENING WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL WATERS TONIGHT UNDER INCREASED SW FLOW.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MON/
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...FRONT WILL DRIFT TO THE CST THU NIGHT THEN
STALL AND WASHOUT FRI AND FRI NIGHT. SW WINDS MAINLY 10 TO 15 KTS
THU EVENING WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME VARIABLE THRU FRI NIGHT. SW
WINDS WILL RETURN SAT AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS LATE. THE SW
WINDS WILL CONT TO GRAD INCREASE SUN AND MON AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES WITH SPEEDS 15 TO 20 KTS SUN AFTN AND 20 TO 25 KTS LATER
SUN NIGHT AND MON.

SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FT THU EVENING WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET FRI MORN
AND 2 TO 3 FT BY FRI AFTN. SEAS WILL CONT IN THE 2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE
THRU SAT. SEAS WILL BUILD SUN AS WINDS INCREASE WITH 4 TO 6 FT BY
AFTN. SEAS WILL PEAK AT 5 TO 7 FEET MON.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...RF/DAG
MARINE...RF/DAG




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