Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 250911
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
511 AM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will sag into the region today with high
pressure building in from the north tonight and Wednesday. The
front will dissipate by Thursday with high pressure moving
offshore. Another cold front will move into the region Saturday
and stall along or off the coast into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 340 AM Tuesday...The surface cold front was located from
low pressure over the DelMarva southwest into western NC early
this morning. Ahead of the front widespread high clouds were
streaming into the area from the west. Could see a few pop up
showers this morning especially near the coast. This afternoon
strong heating will lead to destabilization of the atmosphere
while the surface cold front moves into the region during peak
heating. The result will be the development of scattered showers
and thunderstorms. Weak mid level lapse rates and shear will
significantly lessen the severe weather threat but cell mergers
and boundary interactions could lead to an isolated pulse severe
storm or two with a damaging wind gust. Highs in the 90s and
dewpoints in the 70s will lead to heat indices near 100 again
today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
As of 340 AM Tuesday...The cold front is actually expected to
pass south of the area late tonight with a cooler and drier NE
flow developing in the wake of the boundary. Ongoing convective
activity will weaken from north to south overnight. Lows will
range from the upper 60s to lower 70s inland to the mid 70s
coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 4 AM Tuesday...Minimal rain chances Wednesday into
Thursday with the cold front south of the region and high
pressure ridging in from the north. The high moves offshore with
southerly return flow bringing a warming trend for Thursday into
Friday. Another cold front will approach the area Friday and
move across the area Saturday bringing a good chance of showers
and thunderstorms across the region. The front will stall along
or off the coast through the weekend and into early next week.

Wednesday and Wednesday night...Models are trending drier for
Wednesday with the front pushing well south of the area and high
pressure ridging in from the north. Far southern area may see
some lingering showers in the morning but generally expect dry
conditions across most of the region with dry conditions
continuing Wednesday night. Temps will be a few degrees below
normal with highs in the mid/upper 80s most areas, warmest SW
sections. Onshore winds will bring coolest temps to the northern
OBX with highs holding in the lower 80s. Lows expected in the
low to mid 70s and may see a few upper 60s in coolest locations.

Thursday and Thursday night...A robust shortwave will dig
across the Great Lakes and into the Ohio River Valley with an
attendant sfc low pressure beginning to move into the mid-
Atlantic states late in the period. High pressure ridging in
from the north will move off the mid-Atlantic coast Thursday
with southerly return flow developing across the region bringing
a warming trend to the area. Models keep the area dry much of
the period but could see a few showers develop along the coast
and may also see storms move in from the west as upper level
dynamics improve with the approaching shortwave late Thursday
night. Highs expected around 90 inland to mid 80s along the
coast with lows mainly in the mid 70s inland to upper 70s coast.

Friday through Monday...Robust shortwave energy moves across
the region Friday into Saturday while low pressure moves off the
mid-Atlantic coast Friday with the trailing cold front progged
to move across the area early Saturday. Descent instability and
shear expected to exist across the region ahead of the front
Friday with favorable upper level dynamics and could see strong
to severe storms across the region. The front is forecast to
stall offshore late Saturday into Sunday but then move back
toward the coast early next week. An upper trough will persist
across the east coast into early next week as well with the axis
west of the area with S/SW flow lifting abundant moisture
across the area.

Confidence in the forecast details is low to this period as
models have not been consistent with timing of system moving
into the area as well as how far the front will push offshore
this weekend. 00z models have trended a bit faster moving the
upper system through Saturday and push the front farther
offshore which subsequently dries things out faster Saturday and
also keeps most of the precip offshore Saturday night through
Sunday night. Have trended PoPs down this period but may need to
be lowered further if model continue to keep the front and
moisture offshore. 00z models in a bit better agreement with
shortwave energy moving through the upper trough and lifting
across the region early next week with the sfc front
retrograding back into the region bringing better chances for
showers and thunderstorms as we move into Monday.

Strong SW flow persists Friday ahead of the front bringing warm
temps with highs in the lower 90s inland to mid/upper 80s along
the coast. Temps a few degrees below normal expected this
weekend into early next week with highs generally in the mid 80s
but onshore flow may hold the northern OBX in the lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term /through tonight/...
As of 105 AM Tuesday...Main concern early this morning is the
potential for a brief period of fog/stratus with sub VFR
conditions as winds decouple and low levels remain moist in
southerly prefrontal flow. Not seeing strong signals in the
guidance for this outside of the NAM BUFKIT soundings and HRRR
runs which indicate a persistent IFR cloud deck 9-15Z. Thus with
confidence remaining low will just indicate scattered IFR
clouds for now and continue to monitor and issue amendments if
needed. As a cold front approaches later today it should merge
with the sea breeze near the TAF sites during peak heating
resulting in scattered thunderstorm development in the afternoon
and evening though coverage may be limited by the overall
weakness of the low and mid level features affecting our
weather. The cold front should move through the TAF sites late
tonight with the low level flow becoming NE which would favor
sub VFR cloud development but with no consensus in the guidance
for this yet confidence is low.

Long Term /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 430 AM Tuesday...Pred VFR conditions expected Wednesday
and Thursday with mainly dry conditions expected much of the
period, though may see a few lingering showers with sub-VFR
conditions across southern rtes into Wednesday morning. Also
cannot rule out patchy late night/early morning fog. A robust
system is expected to move into the region Friday with an
associated cold front moving into the region early Saturday
which will bring showers and thunderstorms with period of sub-
VFR conditions expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through tonight/...
As of 340 AM...Small Craft Advisory conditions will continue
over the central and southern waters early this morning with SW
flow 15 to 25 kt and 4 to 6 ft seas. Conditions will begin to
improve by mid morning morning with winds diminishing to 10 to
15 kt. Seas will gradually subside below 6 ft between 8 and 11
AM.

As a cold front slowly moves south through the waters today and
tonight, winds will shift to N/NE around 15 kt behind it
beginning over the northern waters by late this morning, over
the central waters by late this afternoon, and finally over the
southern waters by late this evening. Seas will be mainly 3 to 4
feet from late this morning through tonight.

Long Term /Wednesday through Saturday/...
As of 5 AM Tuesday...A cold front will be south of the area
Wednesday with high pressure ridging in from the north and
expect NE winds around 10-15 kt through the day with seas 3-4 ft
across the northern waters and 2-3 ft south. High pressure moves
off the mid-Atlantic coast Wednesday night and Thursday with
winds diminishing to 10 kt or less Wednesday night and veering
to SE to S Thursday afternoon with seas around 2-3 ft. A cold
front will approach from the NW Friday with winds becoming SW
around 10-15 kt Thursday night and 15-25 kt Friday into Friday
night with seas expected to build to 3-6 ft. Models differ some
on the strength SW flow but there will be a good chance of SCA
conditions developing across portions of the waters by Friday
and continuing into Friday night. The front is progged to move
across the waters early Saturday with a NE surge around 10-20 kt
developing and seas around 3-5 ft.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ095-098-
     103-104.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for AMZ156-
     158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...JME/SK
MARINE...JME/SK



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