Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 291854
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
254 PM EDT Mon May 29 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will drift into the region tonight then drift
back north on Tuesday. The front will stall near the area
through mid to late week then dissipate.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Monday...The atmosphere across eastern NC remains
quite stable and free of clouds at mid-afternoon, except for a
few patchy cumulus as temperatures have soared to around 90
degrees in many areas as expected. Deep westerly flow and drier
air aloft seen on the 12Z MHX sounding is keeping any convection
at bay so far. Increased mid-level shortwave energy coupled
with a weak boundary that may drift into portions of the CWA
overnight will lead to an increase in shower and thunderstorm
activity. The latest HRRR and RAP models are in good agreement
for arrival of convection after about 02z or 03z. While the area
remains in a Slight Risk of severe storms later tonight,
questionable as to how much instability will be realized,
particularly late in the evening and overnight. Confidence
however is quite high in measurable precipitation over a good
portion of the CWA and have likely PoPs over the far northern
tier with at least 50 percent elsewhere, especially after
midnight. Another warm night with low temperatures right around
70 to the lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
As of 3 PM Monday...The combination of a stalled frontal
boundary near our CWA, strong mid-level shortwaves, and a deeper
plume of moisture in place versus recent days, will lead to a
decent chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday.
Expect more cloud cover with temperatures a few degrees cooler
than today. That cloud cover and increased precip will limit the
severe weather threat tomorrow and SPC has removed our area from
the Marginal threat for Tuesday. Will have PoPs in the 40-50 pct
range Tuesday...perhaps tapering a bit in the afternoon. High
temperatures will be in the mid 80s for most spots.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 3 pm Mon...An unsettled pattern will be the rule through
most of the long term period as shortwaves/disturbances move
through the region aloft, with a weak front lingering across or
near the area. These features will lead to continued low
confidence through the period due to timing and exact locations
of subtle short waves passing through the region. Models are
hinting at a better chance for showers/storms Sunday as a rather
deep upper trof pushes a surface cold front through the area.
Will cap PoPs at 50% for now on Sunday but later shifts may need
to increase to likely. Temps through Saturday continue quite
warm with 85-90 interior to around 80 on the beaches, with lows
in the upper 60s/lower 70s. Temps cool a bit Sunday into Monday
with highs lower to mid 80s with lows in the mid 60s to lower
70s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term /through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon/...
As of 130 PM Mon...VFR conditions expected through most of the
period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop after 8
pm across the airspace and may provide brief periods of sub-VFR
conditions. Depending on the amount of rain that falls and
leftover clouds overnight, there could be a period of MVFR
ceilings and visibilities a few hours before sunrise Tuesday.
But, with much uncertainty on the extent of convection, have
elected to go with a VFR TAF at this time for all sites.

Long Term /Tuesday Night through Saturday/...
As of 3 pm Mon...Mainly VFR through the period, though
occasional periods of sub-VFR in mainly aftn/evening showers
and storms each day. Surface winds will be from the west to
southwest, less than 10 knots Wed and Thu, and 10-15 knots Fri
and Sat.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Tonight and Tuesday/...
As of 3 PM Monday...Weak front will drift into the area from the
north tonight but will likely drift back north of the area on
Tuesday. Winds should generally be WSW/SW this evening and
become S/SW overnight and into Tuesday. Wind speeds will continue
at 5-15 knots with seas 2-3 feet tonight and tomorrow as period
of benign marine conditions will continue.

Long Term /Tuesday Night through Saturday/...
Waters north of Ocracoke...Mainly southwest winds Tue night
through Wed night, then shifting winds Thu as a front moves in
and becomes stationary along the coast. Winds will begin to veer
to south once again Thu night into Fri, then southwest on
Saturday. Speeds will be 5-15 knots and seas 2-4 feet through
Friday. On Saturday a stronger front will approach from the
north. Speeds will increase a bit to 10-20 knots with seas 2-5
feet.

Waters south of Ocracoke...Mainly southwest winds 5-15 kt
through Friday. Winds will increase to 15-20 knots Saturday as a
strong front drops south toward the area. Seas mainly 2-4 feet
through Friday, building to 3-5 feet Sat.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...HSA/SGK
MARINE...CTC/HSA


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