Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 251910
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
310 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in from the north this tonight and
Sunday. A cold front will slowly move into the region by mid week
and linger in the vicinity with waves of low pressure moving
across it through late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Sat...Only a small area of far western eastern NC
will continue to have a threat for scattered showers and
thunderstorms for the remainder of today and possibly early this
evening. Drier air is then forecast to move into the area
overnight.

After sunset any lingering precipitation will end with loss of
heating. Low level moisture spreading under the nocturnal
inversion will likely lead to the develop of widespread low clouds
late tonight. Overnight lows will be 65 to 70 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
As of 300 PM Sat...High pressure will build over the area from the
north with NE flow prevailing. Expect low clouds in the morning
then afternoon sunshine. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 310 pm Sat...not much change to the forecast for this
update. gollowed a consensus blend of wpc and other models...which
leaned towards the ecmwf for the latter part of the forecast. A ridge
of high pressure extending down the east coast into the Carolinas
Sunday Night into Monday will dissipate by Monday evening. A cold
front to the NW Tuesday will pass through Tuesday evening and
become stationary along or just off the southern coast Wednesday
through Saturday. Dry conditions Sunday Night through Monday
Evening. Chance PoPs for the rest of the period with the front
being the main focus for convection in a warm, humid and unstable
airmass.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term /Through Sunday/...
As of 100 PM Sat...Mainly VFR conditions are expected through this
evening outside isolated afternoon/early evening showers and
thunderstorms. Guidance continues to indicate IFR ceilings
developing after 06Z tonight and persisting to around 15Z Sunday
in the moist NE low level flow established across the area.
Expecting a return to vfr conditions by 18Z Sunday afternoon.

Long Term /Sun night through Thu/...
As of 310 pm Sat...VFR with dry weather Sunday into Monday. Sub-
VFR in scattered convection Tuesday through Thursday as a cold
front affects the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Through Sunday/...
As of 300 PM Sat...The cold front will move south of the waters by
early evening with NE flow 10 to 20 kt expected this evening
subsiding to 10 to 15 kt late tonight and Sunday as high pressure
builds over the waters. Seas will be 2 to 4 ft through Sunday with
some 5 ft seas expected over the outer southern and central waters
this evening.

Long Term /Sun night through Thu/...
As of 310 pm Sat...High pressure east of the New England coast
extending down the east coast Sunday Night into Monday will
dissipate, with the Bermuda high taking over Tuesday into
Wednesday. As a result, the NE flow Sunday will gradually veer to
SE Monday and SW Tuesday. A cold front will enter the area from
the NW late Tuesday night and become stationary near to just off
the south coast on Wednesday. not much confidence on exactly where
front will set up so wind direction forecast confidence is low.
regardless, pressure gradient through the period will not be very
tight, with winds forecast no higher than 5-15 knots and seas 2-4
feet.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...RSB
AVIATION...JME/RSB
MARINE...JME/RSB


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