Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 020519
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
119 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
AS OF 115 AM SAT...A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ENTIRE CWA
THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. MINOR TWEAKS TO THE NEAR TERM GRIDS MAINLY
FOR HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/SKY COVER OTHERWISE FORECAST MOSTLY ON
TRACK. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS INLAND WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG THE
COASTAL WATERS...WHERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL COMBINE WITH THE INLAND STALLED BOUNDARY
TO PRODUCED MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN CLOUDY AND MILD
OVERNIGHT...LOWS AROUND 70 INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
HAVE BLANKETED LIKELY POPS OVER THE CWA ON SATURDAY GIVEN THE
INHERENT DIFFICULTIES IN TIMING SHORT WAVES THRU THE MOIST SSW
FLOW. HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING THREATS WILL CONTINUE IN THE
MOISTURE RICH, TROPICAL AIRMASS ATOP ALREADY SATURATED GROUND. 1-3
INCH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED AREA WIDE THRU
SATURDAY BUT UNDOUBTEDLY WILL SEE LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS AGAIN.

CLOUDS/PRECIP HOLDS HIGH TEMPS AROUND 80 BUT CUD SEE TEMPS A
LITTLE HIGHER IF ANY SUNNY BREAKS WERE TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRI...LITTLE CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM WITH THIS
PACKAGE AS MUCH OF THE FOCUS ON NEAR TERM FLOODING AND
TORNADO/WATERSPOUT CONCERNS.

THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A
RICH SUPPLY OF DEEP GULF/CARIBBEAN MOISTURE CONTINUING TO TRAIN
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN US. THE AREA CONTINUES TO BE IN THE
FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET WITH PWATS REMAINING ABOVE
2 INCHES...AND CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE WET AS AN
INVERTED TROUGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA.
WPC AND FORECAST MODELS INDICATING AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAINFALL POSSIBLE FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY. WITH MUCH
OF EASTERN NC HAVING RECEIVED COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN LAST
MONTH...IN ADDITION TO WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES AND SEVERAL
LOCATIONS RECEIVING 3 TO 5 INCHES SO FAR TODAY...FLOODING CONCERNS
WILL REMAIN A THREAT. TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN BY THE ABUNDANT
CLOUDS AND RAIN...WHICH WILL ALSO ACT TO LIMIT DESTABILIZATION SO
NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
80S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S.

THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT NEXT WEEK WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BUILDING INTO THE REGION AND EXPECT MORE
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION TO RETURN BY
MIDWEEK WITH TEMPS CLIMBING BACK TO SEASONABLE NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 120 AM SAT...EXPECT MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING DUE
TO SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS.
REDUCED CEILINGS/VSBYS EXPECTED WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
INCREASING NEAR SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY FOR OAJ/EWN WHERE CONVECTION
OFFSHORE SHOULD LIFT NORTH ACROSS THESE SITES PRIOR TO DAWN. SLOW
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED LATER TODAY AS LOW CLOUDS MIX OUT ALTHOUGH
CAN EXPECT PRECIPITATION COVERAGE TO INCREASE AGAIN AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVES UP THE COAST IN THE MOIST SSW FLOW.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRI...AN INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH ENC IN FAVORABLE
REGIME FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH PERIODS OF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY. THE TROUGH BEGINS TO
WEAKEN GRADUALLY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 120 AM SAT...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE SE WINDS
10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS GENERALLY 3-4 FT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
REMAIN STALLED ACROSS INLAND SECTIONS TODAY WITH THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT MAINTAINING A SE WIND MAINLY 5-15 KNOTS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL LARGELY REMAIN IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE
THROUGHOUT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRI...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL RESIDE ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM BRINGING PERIODS OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN SUB
SCA...OUTSIDE OF STORMS...THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WINDS GENERALLY
15 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS WILL REMAIN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. COULD SEE SEAS BUILD SOME TUESDAY AS SWELLS FROM TC
BERTHA BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA WITH NWPS AND WAVEWATCH CURRENTLY
SHOWING SEAS GENERALLY IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE. CURRENT NHC AND
MODEL CONSENSUS RE-CURVES THE CYCLONE WELL OFFSHORE...GREATER THAN
300 MILES...SO IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE
RESTRICTED TO MARINE CONCERNS AND BEACH-GOERS WITH AN INCREASED RIP
CURRENT THREAT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081-
     090>095-098-103-104.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/DAG/LEP
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...BTC/SK
AVIATION...SK/DAG
MARINE...BTC/SK/DAG




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