Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 310436
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1236 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OFFSHORE AND MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST TODAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY BRINGING MUCH COOLER AND WINDY
WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM FRI...NO CHANGES ON FORECAST UPDATE. EXPECT SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP NEARER THE COAST TOWARD MORNING AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRES DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT SITUATED WELL OFFSHORE. THE LOW WILL
HELP PULL MOISTURE BACK TO ALONG THE COAST AND POSSIBLY INLAND
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. FORECAST MINS OF MID 40S INLAND TO THE MID 50S
COAST LOOK GOOD OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS FORECAST...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO INC POPS ALONG COAST LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI...AS MOST MODELS SHOW INC MOISTURE AND LIFT
NEAR COAST DUE TO PROXIMITY OF LOW PRES JUST OFFSHORE. HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND STATES TONIGHT. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL WILL DEVELOP OFF THE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND MAINLY
IMPACT PORTIONS OF EASTERN NC ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 17. MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES INLAND TO CLOUDY SKIES ALONG THE COAST NEAR THE WEAK LOW
DEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY OFFSHORE. COOLER TEMPS
TONIGHT ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND SECTIONS WHERE LOWS WILL FALL INTO
THE MID 40S...WITH MID 50S ALONG THE COAST WHERE CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP LATE MAY INHIBIT MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOCAL BIAS
CORRECTED GRIDS NOT AVAILABLE DUE TO RECENT AWIPS UPGRADES SO
UTILIZED A NAM/GFS/ECMWF MOS BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM THURS...THE WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE GULF STREAM FRIDAY BRINGING PRECIP TO
LOCATIONS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HWY 17. INCREASED POPS TO
SLIGHT JUST INLAND OF THE COAST AND CHANCE POPS ALONG THE COAST.
THE DEVELOPING LOW WILL PINCH THE NORTHEAST GRADIENT ACROSS
COASTAL AREAS WITH NE WINDS IN THE 15-25 MPH RANGE FRIDAY. MAX
TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW 60S WITH A FEW MID 60S POSSIBLE ACROSS DUPLIN/ONSLOW/LENOIR
COUNTIES ON THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE WEAK COASTAL LOW. LOCAL
BIAS CORRECTED GRIDS NOT AVAILABLE DUE TO RECENT AWIPS UPGRADES SO
UTILIZED A NAM/GFS/ECMWF MOS BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS ASSOCD WITH OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE WILL GRAZE THE OUTER BANKS
FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE MOVING TO THE NE. AN INTENSE UPR LOW OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY FRI EVENING WILL DIVE SSE TO THE WRN CAROLINAS BY EARLY
SATURDAY. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AND
THE CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS LATE ESPCLY INLAND. THE UPR LOW SHIFTS
SOUTH THEN EAST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRES
SYSTEM RAPIDLY DEEPENING OFF THE OUTER BANKS BY LATE AFTERNOON. RAIN
WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE OVER EASTERN NC AND
MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE THERMODYNAMIC STRUCTURE
ESP NEAR THE COAST. WOULDN`T BE TOTALLY SURPRISED BY A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES AND/OR SOME SOFT HAIL/GRAUPEL SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER MIN
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S INLAND/LOW 50S COAST FRI NIGHT, HIGH
TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE LOW OR MID 50S WITH CLOUDS/WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND A STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION SURGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

RAIN WILL MOVE OUT FROM SW TO NE SATURDAY EVENING AS STACKED LOW
PRESSURE MOVES WELL EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL LIKELY
BE THE TIME OF STRONGEST NW WIND, WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE
OVER THE OUTER BANKS THRU MUCH OF SATURDAY NIGHT. WIND ADVISORIES
AND POSSIBLE HIGH WIND WARNINGS WILL BE NEEDED ALONG THE COAST.
WINDS WONT BE AS STRONG FARTHER INLAND BUT SOME GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING BEFORE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH OVER INLAND AREAS TO PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO LOW WHILE ALSO PREVENTING MUCH FROST
FROM DEVELOPING. EXPECT LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S INLAND TO MID
40S COAST SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNNY/WINDY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. HIGH TEMPS AGAIN WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 50S SUNDAY WHICH IS ABOUT 15 DEGREES BLO NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. WINDS BEGIN TO SLOWLY DECREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
DIMINISHING WIND AND CLEAR SKIES WILL SET UP A VERY GOOD CHANCE FOR
THE FIRST FREEZING TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON OVER INLAND AREAS
SUNDAY NIGHT. EVEN WHERE FREEZE DOESN`T OCCUR, FROST IS LIKELY EXCEPT
RIGHT NEAR THE COAST WHERE LIGHT WIND OFF WARMER WATER WILL LIMIT
FROST POTENTIAL.

EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY TRANSIENT MULTILAYERED
RIDGE WHICH WILL PROVIDE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND A SLOW RECOVERY OF
TEMPERATURES BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WED
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM FRI...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING TAF PERIOD.
MAINLY BKN LOW END STRATO CU LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND ADVECT IN OFF
THE ATLANTIC ON FRI AS COASTAL LOW MOVES NORTHEASTWARD. ANY RAIN
SHOULD REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE TERMINALS...THOUGH KEWN STANDS THE
BEST CHANCE OF RECEIVING SOME LIGHT RAIN ON FRI. WILL LEAVE OUT OF
THE TAFS ATTM. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BUT ENOUGH MIXING
AND SUFFICIENT TEMP/DEW PT SPREADS TO PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRONG UPPER LOW DIVES SE INTO THE CAROLINAS SAT WITH GOOD CVRG OF
RAIN EXPECTED LEADING TO SUB VFR CIGS AND POSS VSBYS. PREDOMINANT
VFR WILL RETURN SAT NIGHT AND CONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRES
MOVES NE AWAY FROM THE REGION AND SFC HIGH BUILDS EAST. STRONG AND
GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE SAT AND CONT INTO SUN AS THE LOW
PRES DEEPENS TO THE NE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1230 AM FRI...NO CHANGES ON FORECAST UPDATE. LATEST SURFACE
AND BUOY DATA INDICATE NNE WINDS 10-20 KT WITH SEAS 3-4 FT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE WATERS WILL
BRIEFLY PASS BY TO THE NORTH TONIGHT WHILE A WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE GULF STREAM FRIDAY. NE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE 10-20 KT RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SEAS 2-5
FT...WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL
WATERS. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY FRIDAY AS THE GRADIENT
PINCHES BETWEEN THE DEVELOPING LOW AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF
THE AREA. SOME GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE OUTER
FRINGES OF THE COASTAL ZONES FROM OFF ONSLOW BAY TO OFF DIAMOND
SHOALS. GALE WATCHES MAY BE HOISTED WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE SO
THAT WILL SUPERSEDE THE SCAS IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS FROM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. A DECREASE IN WINDS EXPECTED LATE
FRI INTO EARLY SAT AS INIT HIGH WEAKENS AND WEAK LOW BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OVER AREA AS INTENSE MID/UPR LOW DIVES SE INTO CAROLINAS. AS
THE SFC LOW SHIFTS OFF THE CST LATER SAT AND DEEPENS, NNW WINDS WILL
RAPIDLY INCREASE WITH GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL WTRS LATE SAT/SAT
EVENING THRU EARLY SUNDAY...SOME GUSTS TO STORM FORCE POSS ESPCLY
OUTER CNTRL AND NRN WTRS. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS
10 TO 15 FOOT SEAS OUTER WTRS SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH
SURF AND MINOR BEACH EROSION WILL ALMOST CERTAINTY RESULT.

NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER TO THE NE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SLOWLY GRAD DROPPING BELOW SCA LVLS SUN
NIGHT INTO MON.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
2-3 FT TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE LIKELY ALONG VULNERABLE COASTLINES AS
STRONG NNW WINDS DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.
THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS AND SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND, ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF HATTERAS, AND DOWNEAST CARTERET WILL BE PARTICULARLY AT
RISK FOR AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING WITH POSSIBLY MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING IF LATER MODEL GUIDANCE TRENDS EVEN HIGHER WITH WINDS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     AMZ136-137-158.
     GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AMZ130-131-135-154-156.
     GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AMZ150-152.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...JAC/DAG/TL/LEP
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...JAC/BTC/RF/TL
MARINE...JAC/BTC/RF/DAG/LEP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






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