Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 220825
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
325 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY THEN
SLIDE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE
AREA SUNDAY PUSHING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AND
EVENTUALLY PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND
MOVE WELL TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 325 AM SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE
AREA THIS MORNING THEN DRIFT OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING
TO PRODUCE DRY WEATHER WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
AFTER A CHILLY START THIS MORNING DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW WILL
HELP TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM SATURDAY...THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE
WEATHER TONIGHT WHILE MOVING FURTHER OFFSHORE. A DEVELOPING WARM
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SOUTH COAST LATE. ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS
LATE BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION PRIOR TO 12Z SUNDAY. WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS...LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR BEFORE 06Z WITH
READINGS REMAINING STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING LATE. USED A BLEND OF
THE MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WHICH YIELDED LOWS IN THE MID 30S AND
MID 40S COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM SATURDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING OFFSHORE...A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. SHIELD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST DURING THE EARLY PART OF
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE ENDING
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MODEL WIND FIELDS ARE RATHER STRONG WITH
IMPRESSIVE SHEAR FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH ABOUT 700 MB BY 06Z
MONDAY. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH AND COUPLED
WITH THE SHEAR AND INCREASING MOISTURE HAS PROMPTED A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE TSTMS FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER LATE
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL RAMP POPS UP TO HIGH LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. WITH
PRECIPITATION ENDING AND A WSW/SW FLOW AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT
MONDAY TO BE QUITE WARM WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING LEADING TO SUNNY SKIES...WITH
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY WITH HIGHS
PRIMARILY THE 60S.

DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH INDUCES CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY WITH THE LOW LIFTING UP THE COAST AND
NORTH OF THE AREA BY THANKSGIVING DAY. WITH DEEP OMEGA...THIS
LOOKS TO BE A RATHER WET PERIOD WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN...COUPLED WITH STRONG N/NE WINDS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY
TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. MODEL TRENDS HAVE VARIED A
BIT FOR THE WEATHER FOR LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT THIS MORNINGS ECMWF
HAS TRENDED A BIT DRIER LIKE THE GFS FOR LATE THANKSGIVING INTO
FRIDAY AND WILL CONTINUE THAT TREND WITH MINIMAL POPS FOR THAT
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1240 AM SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR
MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DRY AIRMASS CONTROLS
THE WEATHER WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. CONDITIONS
APPEAR TOO DRY FOR ANY FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT. SATURDAY EVENING
THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A COASTAL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INLAND
AND THE NAM MODEL IS INDICATING THAT IT WILL PRODUCE LOW CLOUDS
WITH CEILINGS 1500-2000 FT AFTER 03Z. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS
BUT WILL INTRODUCE SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 1500 FT AROUND 04Z.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM SATURDAY...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY
WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO
MOSTLY VFR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ANOTHER STRONG LOW WILL FORM OFF
THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AND MOVE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN...SOME HEAVY...WILL
LEAD TO WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE WATERS
THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE EAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS LATE
TONIGHT. EXPECT CURRENT NORTHERLY FLOW 10 TO 15 KT TO DIMINISH TO
10 KT OR LESS AFTER 12Z AND BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE FLOW SHOULD THEN BECOME SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AROUND
10 KT AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES. CURRENT 3 TO 5 FT SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 3 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 325 AM SATURDAY...WITH A STRONG WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WILL INITIATE A GALE
WATCH FROM 03Z TO 15Z MONDAY AS SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 KNOTS ARE LIKELY. SEAS WILL LIKEWISE BUILD
TO 6 TO 9 FEET SUNDAY EVENING AND TO AS HIGH AS 12 FEET...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
EVEN THOUGH WINDS SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY...SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
WITH WINDS INCREASING AGAIN WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER STRONG LOW FORMS
OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WITH WINDS AGAIN AT 25 KNOTS
AND GUSTY FROM THE N/NE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     AMZ130-135-150-152-154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/JME
MARINE...CTC/JME






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