Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 231755
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1255 PM EST Thu Nov 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build into the region through Friday. Low
pressure will move south and east of the area Friday into early
Saturday, followed by a dry cold front Saturday night. High
pressure will build in from the west Sunday and Monday and will
extend over the area Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1045 AM Thursday...Minor adjustments to sky cover with
thicker CI spreading up from south. Forecast generally on track
with increasing high cloudiness and max temps 50-55.

/Previous discussion/

As of 715 AM Thursday...Minimal changes for the morning update.
Mid level troughing continues across the east coast with sfc
high pressure building into the region from the NW. A cool dry
airmass will be in place but will see abundant high clouds,
associated with a low pressure area pushing across the FL
peninsula, lift across the region bringing filtered sunshine.
High expected in the low to mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
As of 715 AM Thursday...High pressure will continue to ridge
into the region tonight with the aforementioned low pressure
area moving off the Southeast coast. A few showers could move
into the southern or central coastal waters but most land areas
will remain dry with mainly high clouds prevailing. The
exception may be Downeast Carteret County as the GFS and ECMWF
indicting a few showers may push ashore here, however the high
res models keep the showers offshore and limit PoPs to slight
chance. Lows expected in the low/mid 30s inland to upper
30s/lower 40s coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 2 AM Thu...High pressure wl build in from the NW Fri.
Models cont trend of keeping better moisture offshore so only
have small pop over waters. Highs Fri in the 50s to near 60 and
lows Fri night upper 30s/lower 40s inland and mid 40s to around
50 beaches.

Weak low will lift NE offshore of the coast Sat as a cold front
approaches from the W. Again bulk of models mainly dry with
just small chc of shra over central and srn coastal waters.
Temps will moderate a bit Sat with highs mainly 60 to 65. The
cold front will cross Sat night...looks dry with very little
moisture assoc with fropa. Best CAA holds off til Sun with lows
ranging from around 40 inland to around 50 beaches.

High pres will build in from the W Sun and Mon then move offshore
Tue and Wed with dry weather. Wl be cool early with strong
warming by midweek. Highs Sun and Mon will be in the 50s. Lows
will be chilly Sun night and Mon night lower/mid 30s inland and
mostly 40s beaches. As the high slides offshore Tue and Wed WAA
will develop with highs Tue in the the low/mid 60s...warming to
mid/upr 60s Wed.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term /through 18Z Friday/...
As of 1250 PM Thursday...Pred VFR conditions expected through
the short term. Mid level shortwave will produce
increasing/thickening high clouds into this evening, then
decreasing late tonight. N/NE winds will generally be 10 kt or
less. Guidance keeps VFR conditions tonight but with light winds
and cold temps cannot rule out patchy steam fog along the
rivers, primarily affecting PGV and possibly EWN.

Long Term /Friday through Monday/...
As of 2 AM Thu...Mainly VFR expected through the period. High
pres with limited clouds Fri. Weak low moving NE offshore and
approaching cold front Sat will lead to more clouds but not
expecting much if any precip at taf sites. Dry cold front will
cross Sat night with high pres building in Sun and Mon leading
to mclr skies.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Tonight/...
As of 11 AM Thursday...Extended SCA for southern waters until 3
PM with 6 ft seas lingering outer portions. Rest of forecast on
track with winds/seas gradually subsiding.

/Previous discussion/

As of 7 AM Thursday...Winds and seas have peaked and are
beginning to slowly diminish this morning. High pressure
building in from the NW with N/NE with around 10-20 kt with
seas around 5-7 ft across the waters. N/NE winds generally 15
kt or less this afternoon through around midnight, then could
see some slight strengthening to 10-20 kt as gradients tighten
with an area of low pressure pushing off the Southeast coast,
strongest across the southern waters. Seas will gradually
subside this morning and expect to drop below 6 ft northern and
southern waters by noon and the central waters by late this
afternoon. Seas expected around 3-5 ft tonight.

Long Term /Friday through Monday/...
As of 2 AM Thu...High pres will build in from the W Fri with NE
winds around 15 kts and 3 to 5 foot seas. Weak low pres will
lift NE offshore early Sat with a cold front approaching from
the W late. N to NW winds 5 to 15 kts early Sat will become more
W later in the day with seas 2 to 4 feet. The cold front will
cross Sat night with NNW winds increasing to 15 to 25 kts Sun
and seas building to 4 to 6 feet...highest outer central nrn
waters. As the high builds closer Mon N winds will diminish to
mainly less than 10 kts with seas subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in
the aftn.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for AMZ152-
     154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ156-
     158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...JBM/SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...RF/JBM/SK
MARINE...RF/JBM/SK



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