Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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065
FXUS62 KMHX 010229
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1029 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak low pressure will move northeast along the coast tonight and
Thursday. A cold fron will move in from the northwest Thursday
night. Tropical Storm Hermine will make landfall in northern
Florida by Friday morning, and lift northeastward and impact the
area Friday into Saturday. High pressure will build into the
region Sunday through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
As of 1000 PM Wed...another minor update for cloud cover and temp
trends overnight. No change to POPs with highest along coast
overnight as scattered shower/isolated tstm threat will persist as
weak low pres moves up along coast. Baroclinic shield cloudiness
with short wave moving up along coast is traversing area with
thicker cloudiness moving offshore overnight. Per previous
discussion, clearing and light winds inland will likely lead to
repeat of fog/stratus overnight. Min temps still mainly 70 to 75.

/Previous discussion/
As of 330 PM Wed...A quiet afternoon across E NC as weak ridging
is in control. Mid and upper level moisture is streaming northward
and leading to mostly cloudy skies across the FA. Sfc warm front
is slowly moving northward across Onslow Bay and towards the
Crystal Coast. Convective showers and ocnl thunder along and south
of the bndry with some elevated stratiform rain to the north. Some
of this activity will get to the Crystal Coast by this evening.
Wind field dominated by local sound and sea breeze boundaries as
synoptic flow is quite weak.

For tonight, aforementioned warm front/coastal trough will move
northeast and remain off the coast. Some rain showers will affect
mainly coastal areas with some embedded thunder possible.
Otherwise mainly calm/light winds and moist low levels leads to
another night of fog/br for interior areas and have added patchy
fg to grids. Warm and muggy once again with lows 70-75.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
As of 330 PM Wed...Quiet conditions for most of Thursday as area
will be well ahead of a sfc cool front dropping southward from the
Ohio Valley/Mid Atlantic region. Front is a bit slower than
earlier models have indicated so best chance for showers/storms
will hold off until late in the afternoon. Have highest pops
(40-50) across nrn/nwrn zones to 20 percent coastal areas. Warm
and humid under partly cloudy skies with highs 85-90.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 530 PM Wednesday...A cold front will drop into the region
late Thursday night, then Tropical Storm Hermine will lift
northeast along the front Friday into Saturday. High pressure will
build into the region late in the weekend into next week.

Thursday Night through Saturday, Rain chances increase Thursday
night ahead of strong cold front which stall it across southern
coastal areas early Friday morning. Frontal convergence, good
upper level support and a tropical moisture feed from the Gulf of
Mexico will continue to bring high rain chances across the region
through the day Friday. 12z models and NHC forecast bring TS
Hermine onshore along the Florida panhandle Thursday evening and
then track it inland across GA and into SC during the day Friday.
12Z model consensus has shifted the track much farther west as it
lifts into the Carolinas and actually tracks Hermine inland
across the coastal plain Saturday. NHC has also followed suite
with the 5pm forecast package shifting the track inland as it
crosses the Carolinas however there is still much uncertainty in
the track of this system especially as this is the first model run
with the inland track.

The greatest impacts from TS Hermine is expected to occur late
Thursday night and Saturday. The greatest threat from the system
is expected to be heavy rainfall bringing flash flooding concerns
as 4-7 inches and locally up to 10 inches of rainfall will be
possible through this period. Low end tropical storms force winds
expected with this system at this time and greatest threat from
winds will be downed trees as the soils become saturated given the
amount of rain expected which could cause power outages. Minor to
moderate storm surge will be possible along the beaches, sounds
and rivers but is it still too early to know the exact extent of
surge or areas impacted at this time. Given the current forecast
track placing eastern NC in the right quadrant of the storm the
tornado threat has also increased.

Saturday night through Wednesday, Hermine is progged to lift
north of the area Saturday night becoming vertically stacked with
an upper low across or just offshore of the mid Atlantic Coast
Sunday. Meanwhile high pressure builds into the region from the
west Sunday through the rest of the extended period. Uncertainty
in the track of Hermine grows even further as it lifts north of
the Carolinas and merges with the upper level cut-off low and
slowly meanders off the mid Atlantic or New England coast. The
12Z ECMWF even retrogrades the system southwestward back toward
the NC coast during the middle of next week. A few lingering
showers possible along coastal sections Saturday night and Sunday
but otherwise expect dry conditions through this period at this
time. Slightly below normal temps in the low to mid 80s expected
Sunday and Monday then temps warm to the upper 80s Tuesday with
lower 90s possible Wednesday as an upper ridge build into the
region and low level thicknesses increase.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term /Through 00Z Friday/...
As of 730 PM Wed...Current VFR conditions expected to prevail
through 06Z, then clearing and light winds inland will lead to
another period of IFR to LIFR fog and stratus mainly 08Z-12Z all
TAF sites. Conditions improving back to VFR with heating. Some
threat of tstms late in afternoon but not enough probability to
mention in TAFs at this time.

Long Term /Thursday Night through Monday/...
As of 530 PM Wednesday...Poor flying conditions expected Thursday
Night through Saturday as a frontal boundary drops into the region
Thursday night and Tropical Storm Hermine lifts NE across the area
Friday night into Saturday. Periods of heavy rain will be
possible, especially from early Friday morning through Saturday
morning. Winds 25-35 KT with higher gusts will be possible Friday
night into Saturday morning and could also see isolated tornadoes,
especially if the system tracks west of the region. High pressure
builds into the region Sunday and Monday with pres VFR conditions
expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Through Thursday/...
As of 1000 PM Wed...no significant changes with update. Winds have
become SE-S 5-10 KT ahead of weak low moving up from SSW, with
some veering back to ESE expected for southern waters late. Latest
buoy obs indicate seas around 3 ft.

/Previous discussion/ As of 330 PM Wed...Light N to NE winds this
afternoon will become southerly tonight though remain in the 5-10
kt range. Seas will be 2 to 4 feet. Winds back to the NE again on
Thursday as a weak low moves well off the coast of NC. Winds
remain light on Thu in the 5-10 kt range with seas continuing 2 to
4 feet.

Long Term /Thursday Night through Monday/...
As of 6 PM Wednesday, Poor boating conditions expected for much of
the long term, especially Friday night through Saturday night as
Tropical Storm Hermine tracks near the waters. Latest model
guidance tracks the system across the NC coastal plain late Friday
night and Saturday Morning and expect TS force winds with seas
10-15 FT and possible a little higher. The TS will lift north of
the area Saturday night and stall off the mid Atlantic or New
England coast early next week. Have winds coming down to 10-20 KT
Sunday and 5-15 KT Monday and seas coming down to 4-6 FT Sunday
and 2-5 FT Monday. Some uncertainty with sea state early next week
as models vary greatly with the position of Hermine after it lifts
north of the area.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through Thursday evening for NCZ095-
     098-103-104.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM/TL
NEAR TERM...JBM/TL
SHORT TERM...SK/TL
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...JBM/SK/TL
MARINE...JBM/SK/TL



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