Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 191901
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
301 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Hurricane Jose will move north away from the region through
tonight. High pressure builds in Wednesday and persists through
early next week. At this time Hurricane Maria is expected to
track well offshore of the southeast coast next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Tuesday...TC Jose will continue to lift N away
from ern NC tonight as high pres builds in from the W. Clouds
and spotty shra over NE sections will grad shift offshore with
skies becoming mclr all areas. Gusty NNW winds over NE tier will
also diminish thru the night with winds becoming light to calm
inland. Good radiational cooling will lead to lows in lower 60s
cooler inland spots with beaches in upr 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 PM Tuesday...Dry weather expected in wake of Jose
however may see some increase in clouds in aftn as weak short
wave approaches. With good deal of sun thru at least mid day
will have highs in mid to upr 80s inland with low to mid 80s
cst.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 3 PM Tue...High pressure will build in from the north
through the period, while we continue to monitor Hurricane Maria
currently located near the Virgin Islands. Some uncertainty
continues regarding the track of Hurricane Maria late this
weekend and next week, though models have been trending more
eastward with the system keeping it well offshore of the
southeast coast. Eastern NC residents and interested parties
should continue to monitor the latest official forecasts from
NHC.

Pred dry wx expected through the period, though could have some
isolated showers and storms Thu afternoon. Could see some
showers along the coast early next week, depending on the Maria
track. Low level thickness values support temps near to
slightly above normal, generally highs in the 80s and overnight
lows in the mid 60s inland to upper 60s/low 70s along the coast.
Thu and Fri likely to be the warmest days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term /Through Wed/...
As of 1235 PM Tuesday...Clouds grad lifting and sct out over
TAF sites as Jose conts to lift NE away from the area. Expect
prev VFR rest of the period as Jose conts to lift N and high
pres builds in with mclr skies. As winds become light tonight
may see some patchy fog inland with temps reaching dewpts and
added some MVFR vsbys late.

Long Term /Wednesday Night through Sunday/...
As of 3 PM Tue...VFR conditions will dominate most of the
period, though some early morning FG/BR and low stratus may
develop each night as a ridge of high pressure will be across
the region.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Through Wed/...
As of 230 PM Tuesday...Winds will cont to diminish as Jose
moves further away. SCA will end srn wtrs and sounds late today
or this evening. Very large seas cont nrn wtrs and will be slow
to subside and SCA will cont these wtrs. Seas of 12 to 16 feet
nrn tier late today will drop to 7 to 10 feet late tonight and
5 to 8 feet Wed. Over srn tier seas of 4 to 7 feet late today
will drop to 3 to 5 feet tonight and 2 to 4 feet Wed.

Long Term /Wed night through Sunday/...
As of 3 PM Tue...Hurricane Jose will continue to lift
northwards off the NE coast Wed night and Thu, then is forecast
to slowly weaken and retrograde late week into the weekend.
High pressure will build in from the north through the period,
while we continue to monitor Hurricane Maria currently located
near the Virgin Islands. Some uncertainty continues regarding
the track of Hurricane Maria late this weekend and next week,
but models have been trending keeping it well offshore of the SE
coast. Mariners and interested parties should continue to
monitor the latest official forecasts from NHC.

SW winds 5-15 kt Wed night, becoming N/NE by Thu afternoon. NE
winds 5-10 kt Fri increasing to 10-15 kt Sat and 10-20 kt Sun.
NWPS and Wavewatch in good agreement with elevated seas
lingering across the central waters through the entire period.
Seas 2-4 ft expected south of Ocracoke through Thu night. Will
likely start seeing long period southeast swell build from
distant Hurricane Maria Thu night through the weekend across all
the waters. Small craft seas likely to re-develop Fri and
continue into the weekend, possibly seeing double digit seas by
late weekend.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 230 PM Tuesday...Cont Coastal Flood Warning for OBX Dare
thru this evening as some signif overwash expected again during
evening high tide...with impacts to Highway 12 likely. Very
rough surf will also persist N of Hat with breakers aoa 8 feet
much of tonight. Minor flooding adjacent to srn/ern Pamlico
Sound shld grad subside as winds cont to diminish this evening.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ095-
     098-103-104.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ095-
     104.
     Coastal Flood Warning until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ103.
     High Surf Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for NCZ103.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this afternoon for
AMZ130-131-135.
 Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ152-154.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ156-
158.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...RF/CQD
MARINE...RF/CQD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX



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