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000
FXUS62 KMHX 180946
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
546 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak shortwave and mid-level front exits the region this
morning, giving way to warm and clear conditions. A backdoor
cold front crosses the region overnight. More unsettled weather
is possible for the weekend into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 430 AM Thu...Weak mid-level shortwave is traversing
eastern NC this morning, providing just enough lift for a widely
scattered band of light showers stretching from Kill Devil Hills
to Jacksonville. Low-levels still remain very dry and expect
primarily virga, but there is a low chance (10-20%) of very
light rain falling for downstream locations in the next couple
of hours, particularly along the coast where moisture profiles
are marginally better.

Once s/w passes, warm downsloping flow is expected through this
afternoon with highs climbing well into the 80s. West to west-
northwesterly flow will keep sea and sound breezes pinned along
the coast. Sided on the low end of guidance for Tds as models
have tend to underestimate mixing in these regimes. By mid-
afternoon, surface low sliding off the mid-Atlantic coast will
usher a weakening front across NOBX which will eventually help
push aforementioned sound breezes inland. The convergence of the
breezes and the front pose a low risk of shallow showers - not
high enough to warrant mentionable PoPs as column will still
remain very dry.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
As of 435 AM Thu...Front will gradually push across the FA
through Fri morning although dry conditions will prevail. Low
stratus will encroach from the northeast behind the front with
moist onshore flow trapped under the frontal inversion. Biggest
question overnight is how cool temperatures will get behind the
front, particularly across the northern OBX. Knocked lows down
into the low 50s across this area, although some hi-res guidance
shows a 30-40% chance of lows in the upper 40s. Future forecasts
may need to lower MinTs further.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 500 AM Thursday...An active pattern continues into early
next week with multiple frontal passages impacting the area.

Friday through Friday night...Upper ridge axis cresting over the
area early Friday with dry conditions prevailing. Another
dampening mid level shortwave and attendant cold front is
progged to push across the area late Friday and Friday night,
which may bring isolated to widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms across the region. Most guidance keeps the best
overlap of shear and instability to the west of ENC, but we`ll
have to monitor trends in guidance as there is a non-zero risk
of some stronger afternoon storms west of HWY 17. E to NE
onshore flow will bring cooler temps along the coast, especially
across the OBX where mid to upper 60s will prevail, but well
inland highs expected in the low to mid 80s.

Saturday through Tuesday...Broad cyclonic flow prevails over the
Eastern CONUS over the weekend and into early next week. A
weakening cold front will drop into the area Saturday and stall
just off the coast Saturday night. The sea breeze is expected
to become dominant pushing inland Saturday afternoon allowing
more heating/destabilization to occur across southern sections
of ENC which, combined with around 40 kt of shear, could allow
for a risk of thunderstorm development, which some could become
strong to marginally severe.

Additional shortwave energy moving through the flow aloft will
bring better forcing across the area Sunday and Sunday night
with widespread rain developing across the region. Sfc low
pressure will develop along the offshore front and pass off the
OBX Sunday night and push the cold front farther offshore on
Monday. High pressure builds into the area Tuesday but will
quickly move offshore by Wednesday with additional shortwave
energy and sfc cold front sliding across the area bringing the
chance for a few showers.

Highs Saturday will be around 75-80 north of highway 70 and low
80s to the south but mid 60s to mid 70s along the coast.
A cooler airmass builds in behind the front which, along with
clouds and showers, will keep temps several degrees below normal
with highs in the 60s Sunday and Monday. Temps will warm to near
normal for mid week with highs in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 06Z Fri/...
As of 140 AM Thu...VFR conditions prevail over the area as mid-
level shortwave passes overhead. Radar imagery shows very light
returns aloft, but persistent dry sub-cloud layer is resulting
in little more than widespread virga. A few CAMs this morning
remain insistent on a narrow band of precip developing the
immediate coast just before dawn, and retained a mention of
showers for OAJ and EWN.

Skies rapidly clear during the day as winds veer west to west-
northwest with a few gusts to 15 kt possible over the inner
coastal plain in the afternoon. By tonight, a weakening backdoor
cold front will push across the area from the northeast as a
weak offshore low drifts off the mid-Atlantic coast. The initial
passage will bring a wind shift out of the east, but lower cigs
are likely to gradually build over terminals after 06z.

LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 530 AM Thursday...Pred VFR expected through Saturday
although there will be an opportunity for brief periods of sub-
VFR in isolated showers or storms late in the day as mid level
shortwaves and attendant cold front moves into the area. Low
pressure passes along the offshore front Sunday through Sunday
night bringing the best chance of widespread rain and sub-VFR
conditions across rtes. Improving conditions are expected on
Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /Today and tonight/...
As of 445 AM Thu...Winds are so far underperforming hi-res
guidance across area waters, with only infrequent gusts to 25 kt
across the Pamlico Sound and central waters ahead of an
approaching mid-level shortwave. Seas have primarily remained
under 6 feet with the exception over Diamond Shoals. Trend is
for winds to gradually ease as disturbance exits the region. By
this afternoon, backdoor cold front will gradually cross area
waters from northeast to south ushering in another surge of
10-15 kt northeasterly flow with a few gusts to 20+ kt likely
primarily overnight.

LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
As of 530 AM Thursday...An active pattern will prevail in the
long term with a series of mid level systems and weakening cold
fronts move into the waters but conditions are expected to
remain below SCA criteria until late in the weekend. NE winds
around 10-20 kt Friday morning will become variable around 10 kt
or less by late in the day as high pressure ridging into the
area weakens. Variable winds around 10 kt or less Friday night
becomes Nly around 10-15 kt on Saturday as another cold front
drops into the area and stalls offshore. Low pressure will
develop along the front Sunday and pass off the OBX Sunday night
into Monday with NE winds around 15-25 kt. Seas will generally
be 2-4 ft, occasionally getting to 5 ft across the outer waters
through Saturday but will build to 3 to 6 ft Sunday and peak
Monday around 4-7 ft across the northern and southern waters
and 6-10 ft across the central waters.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for AMZ152-
     154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...MS
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...SK/MS
MARINE...SK/MS