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000
FXUS64 KMOB 141810 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
105 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.AVIATION (18Z ISSUANCE)...SCT TO BKN CUMULUS FIELD WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE FLYING AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH CLOUD BASIS RANGING
FROM 020 TO 035. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY THIS EVENING FOR MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH NO FOG FORMATION EXPECTED. /08 JW
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013/

SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...WEATHER MAPS THIS MORNING SHOW A
LARGE SCALE UPPER RIDGE POSITIONED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DOWN INTO
THE WESTERN GULF...WHILE A TROF WAS MOVING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC.
IN THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN THE TROF TO THE NORTHEAST
AND THE RIDGE TO THE WEST...CLUSTERS OF STORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING
STEADILY SOUTHWARD OVER THE FORECAST AREA...AHEAD OF A SOUTHWARD
MOVING FRONT. THERE IS A DIFFERENCE OF OPINION BETWEEN THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MESOSCALE MODELS OF THE HRRR/4 KM WRF-NMM AND THE LOCAL
WRF ON HOW THE PRECIPITATION AXIS EVOLVES TODAY. OF THE 3...HRRR AND
4 KM WRF-NMM SHOW VERY LITTLE MEASURABLE RAIN TODAY WHILE THE LOCAL
WRF SUPPORTS REDEVELOPMENT OF COASTAL ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST 03Z RUN OF THE LOCAL WRF HAS BACKED OFF ON
COVERAGE FROM SOLUTIONS OF THE 3 RUNS PRIOR. OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE
SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT ALONG THE COAST AND ITS CONTRIBUTION TO
LIFT...WILL MENTION ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES WITH
SCATTERED COVERAGE ALONG THE BEACHES AND OFFSHORE. TOUGH CALL ON
RAIN COVERAGE TODAY AS FRONTAL CONTRIBUTION WILL BATTLE IT OUT WITH
UPPER RIDGE THAT EXPANDS EASTWARD DURING THE DAY. WEAKENING FRONT...
LOOKS TO EASE A BIT MORE SOUTH OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT THEN
STALL. DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR 90 BEACHES...MID 90S INTERIOR. LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE MID/UPPER 60S INTERIOR TO LOWER/MID 70S COAST. /10

A PRELIMINARY ASSESSMENT OF TODAY`S WET MICROBURST RISK ALONG THE
COAST IS MODERATE.

[THE WEEKEND]...FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN WEDGED BETWEEN A LARGE
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND
NORTH CENTRAL GULF AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
SATURDAY MORNING. A LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. WILL SHIFT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...BUT
LEAVE BEHIND A WESTWARD EXTENSION OF A RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. THE STALLED COLD FRONT JUST OFF THE COAST WILL DISSIPATE ON
SATURDAY AS A SOUTHERLY SYNOPTIC FLOW ONCE AGAIN BEGINS TO DOMINATE.
SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT MAY TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITHIN 70 MILES OF THE COAST. AS A RESULT...INTRODUCED A
20 PERCENT CHANCE [ALTHOUGH ACTUAL COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE 5 TO 10
PERCENT]. THE LARGE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTH OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND THEN RETROGRADE WESTWARD ON SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO
A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT FURTHER TO
THE EAST...BUT THE WESTWARD EXTENSION OF A RIDGE WILL REMAIN INTACT
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
INLAND AREAS RANGING FROM 90 TO 95 DEGREES...WITH UPPER 80S ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES BOTH AFTERNOONS WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S. LOWS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS WILL
RANGE FROM 69 TO 74 DEGREES INLAND AREAS WITH MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. /22

LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...THE UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN
CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH MIDWEEK AND THEN SHIFT
NORTHEAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY LATE IN THE WEEK. THE SURFACE
RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND NORTHERN GULF...KEEPING
THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW. MODELS HAVE NOW
COME AROUND TO RESOLVING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY IN THE EXTENDED...MAINLY DURING TIMES OF HIGHEST INSTABILITY.
THIS LOOKS MORE REASONABLE GIVEN THE PERSISTENT LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND A CONSTANT BARRAGE OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS INLAND AREAS RANGING
FROM 90 TO 95 DEGREES...WITH UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES. MAXIMUM HEAT
INDICES EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. LOWS EACH
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 69 TO 74 DEGREES INLAND AREAS WITH MID TO
UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. /22

AVIATION [14.12Z KMOB/KBFM/KPNS TAF ISSUANCE]...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED MAINLY MORNING TSRA IS EXPECTED AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SINKS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE COAST. A LIGHT NORTHWEST TO WEST WIND
FORECAST TODAY. CIG BASES LOOK TO BE AT MID TO HIGH LEVELS =>VFR
CATEGORIES BUT COULD LOWER TO MVFR CATEGORIES IF STORMS DEVELOP
CLOSER TO OR BRIEFLY MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER THE TERMINALS. WINDS GUSTY
NEAR STORMS. /10

MARINE...WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS INTO THE MARINE AREA IN
THE NEAR TERM. THE FRONT DISSIPATES BY SATURDAY AS SOUTHERLY WIND
BECOMES REESTABLISHED AS A RESULT OF HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED FROM
THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC...WESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW LOOKS TO PERSIST INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOONS WITH DAILY SEA
BREEZE FORMATION. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS FROM TIME TO
TIME. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET TODAY SETTLE TO 1 TO 2 FEET REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. /10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$