000
FXUS66 KMTR 242154
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
254 PM PDT Wed Apr 24 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 228 PM PDT Wed Apr 24 2024

A deep marine layer and expansive cloud coverage will keep
temperatures cool through Thursday before stronger winds arrive
Friday. Clearer skies and slightly warmer temperatures are
expected this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 251 PM PDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Another cloudy and cool afternoon, but with a slightly different
setup compared to yesterday as the the low pressure has moved closer
to the coast. While the low continues to push plenty of clouds
onshore cloud heights and marine layer thickness increased as the
low moved closer. What does that mean? Well it will be slightly
harder for the cloud cover to erode this afternoon.

The low pressure slowly makes its way inland tonight. The deeper
marine layer may limit fog development to only a few patches in the
North Bay, otherwise expect another cloudy night followed by a cool
and cloudy Thursday.


While Thursday continues the trend of cloudy skies, the upper level
pattern shifts, allowing for more northwest flow and bringing back
some breezier northwest winds into the forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 251 PM PDT Wed Apr 24 2024


Still cloudy and cool with some pockets of drizzle for early Friday
as the low pressure exits and the marine layer compresses just
enough for lower clouds. Friday`s pressure gradient change from the
low`s exit will make for even breezier conditions for Friday
specifically for higher peaks and along the Big Sur coast. The more
active winds will allow for better clearing of cloud coverage in
the late afternoon

While the new upper level pattern still allows for onshore flow,
cloud cover becomes less pervasive. While the immediate coast will
continue to struggle with cloud cover, most areas slightly more
inland and well into the interior will see quicker clearing times.
This will place most areas back into the 60s and 70s into the next
work week, while the coast will stick to around 60 degree highs.



Longer term models still struggle with the next pattern change at
the beginning of next month. While the ECMWF families place rain
chances back into the forecast, others favor more cloudy and drizzly
conditions, and a few keep the moisture well to the north.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1014 AM PDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Currently VFR at all terminals. Winds will be breezy out of the west
through the TAF period with speeds increasing into the next TAF
cycle. The exiting upper-level cut-off low will allow for a ridge to
briefly build, thus allowing for the marine layer to compress and
ceilings to significantly drop from marginal MVFR to potentially
low-end MVFR. Stratus will make a return to all terminals
overnight and linger through the end of the 24-hour TAF period.

Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with breezy southeasterly flow.
Winds will be breezy and prevail out of the west by this afternoon.
MVFR stratus will return to the terminal overnight with latest
models/guidance showing it slow to scatter out tomorrow morning.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR with drainage flow at both
terminals. Winds will become breezy and prevail out of the west
through the TAF period. Stratus will return to both terminals
overnight with highest confidence in MVFR being the result.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Monday)
Issued at 251 PM PDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Gentle to moderate N to NW winds continue into Friday when gustier
fresh to strong N winds return Friday. Near gale force to gale
force gusts increase in likelihood starting Friday, continuing
into the weekend, as a low pressure system and associated cold
front move inland. Gale force gusts are most likely across the
southern coastal waters. Moderate period northwesterly swell will
continue to move through the waters through Saturday.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 3 PM PDT Thursday for Mry Bay-
     Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 3 PM PDT Thursday for Pigeon
     Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Murdock
LONG TERM....Murdock
AVIATION...Sarment
MARINE...Kennedy

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