Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 271737 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
1237 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

27/18Z TAF discussion follows.


VFR conditions expected to prevail through the forecast period
although MVFR cigs are expected at KPNC for the first couple of
of hours of forecast. Moderate to strong southwest winds will
occur across western Oklahoma terminals behind a dryline. Isolated
to scattered thunderstorms are possible ahead of this dryline
across north-central and central Oklahoma between 21-03Z but
chances for direct impact to terminals are too low for TEMPO


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1138 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016/

A large area of rain and storms across northeastern Texas will
continue to have some residual impacts on our weather this
afternoon. Meanwhile, a rather sizeable cap is in place in
central Oklahoma per a recent ACARS sounding. However, most models
suggest that some storms will form this afternoon along and near a
weak cold front/dryline as an upper trough moves over the Central
& Southern Plains. The best opportunity for severe storms will be
near and east of Highway 81.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 645 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016/


mvfr ceilings across south central OK may move into central OK
this morning. thunderstorm chances will be highest today in
southeast oklahoma with a chance for thunderstorms in most areas.
the upper low will move to the northeast of oklahoma later today
with diminishing chances for thunder tonight and saturday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 240 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016/

After a week, finally today the upper trough that has been to the
west of OKlahoma will depart. The most likely effects of this will
be a chance for thunderstorms again, but moisture and vertical
shear are expected to be less across northwest Oklahoma.
Nevertheless, instability underneath the core of the low, passing
from southeast CO into western Kansas, is expected to be
sufficient for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Across
southeast Oklahoma, vertical shear is forecast considerably
stronger as well as instability. Assisted by a minor wave in the
synoptic flow, thunderstorms are expected to be stronger or severe
this afternoon and evening. In the wake of the upper trough,
Saturday appears to be the day between the last week and the next
with the lowest chance for rain or thunder. By early Sunday, some
models suggest warm advection into central Oklahoma with a chance
for thunderstorms. A weak wave is forecast by the GFS and NAM to
move into the low-amplitude upper ridge and across OK later Sunday
and early Monday. This will bring an increased chance for
thunderstorms north to south during this period. Upper flow is
expected to remain relatively weak, so severe potential will be
minimized. A large-scale trough is forecast to pass through the
plains on Wednesday bringing a front through Oklahoma Wednesday
with another chance for thunderstorms. Modestly drier and milder
weather is expected the second half of the week, although low
rain/thunderstorm chances will continue as a southern lobe of the
upper low moves across the southern plains.


Oklahoma City OK  81  64  85  65 /  40  20  10  20
Hobart OK         87  60  87  65 /  20  10   0  10
Wichita Falls TX  88  62  89  66 /  30  10  10  10
Gage OK           83  55  85  61 /  20  10   0  10
Ponca City OK     80  62  83  63 /  60  40  20  10
Durant OK         80  68  86  68 /  80  40  20  20


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