Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 030435
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1135 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...
GFS NOW ALSO SUGGESTS THAT THERE MAY BE SOME MVFR CEILINGS IN
NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING... SO HAVE
INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP OF BKN025 AT KPNC. ELSEWHERE... THERE
APPEARS TO BE LESS SIGNAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS. WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 801 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
NAM HINTS OF THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT... BUT
RIGHT NOW THAT SEEMS TO BE THE ONLY SIGNAL...SO HAVE KEPT VFR
CONDITIONS IN THE TAFS BUT WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE MODEL TRENDS
OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 745 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

UPDATE...
REMOVED STORM CHANCES OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING
AND CONFINED THEM TO FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...NORTH OF AN
ALVA TO STILLWATER LINE TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AFTER
9 PM THIS EVENING...THOUGH APPEARS MOST STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY
BE NORTH OF THE OKLAHOMA KANSAS STATELINE.

NO STORMS FORMED LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN
OR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...OR ANYWHERE IN THE WFO NORMAN FORECAST
AREA. VERY WARM CAPPING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND PERHAPS SINKING
AIR BEHIND THIS MORNING/S STORM COMPLEX SEEM TO BE REASONS FOR NO
DEVELOPMENT. THINK THIS CAP WILL NOT BE OVERCOME IN WESTERN
OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING...THUS REMOVED RAIN CHANCES.

A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP ON THE NOSE OF A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL IN
THE 9 TO 11 PM TIME FRAME IN FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AS RECENT HRRR
RUNS SUGGESTED. IF THEY DEVELOP...THEY COULD BE STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH HAIL AND WIND THE MAIN HAZARDS. CONFIDENCE
THAT THESE STORMS WILL DEVELOP APPEARS TO BE MODERATE...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE WITH EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION REMAIN LOW. KEPT 20 TO
30 PERCENT CHANCES IN NORTH OF A ALVA TO STILLWATER LINE.

PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

MBS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FINALLY ENDED ACROSS EASTERN OK
THIS AFTERNOON. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NEAR ARDMORE TO
GEARY...AND IS DRIFTING WESTWARD. ALTHOUGH SFC CONVERGENCE WILL BE
VERY LIMITED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...SOME ISOLATED REDEVELOPMENT
CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WEST OF IT
WHERE THE CAP HAS ERODED. THIS MAY BE ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS NW/W
OK WHERE SFC FLOW IS INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT. ADDITIONALLY...MOST
OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT ACROSS THE NE ALONG THE LIFTING SYNOPTIC
BOUNDARY.

BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE
ENTIRE AREA AS A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS THANKS TO ZONAL MID LEVEL
FLOW OVER THE ROCKIES. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE AVG.
VERY LITTLE WILL CHANGE FOR THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH A VORT MAX
CURRENTLY SEEN NW OF SEATTLE IN WV WILL MAKE ITS WAY ALONG THE
US/CANADA BORDER TO NEAR NORTHERN ND BY 12Z. AN ACCOMPANYING COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO NW KS BY LATE THURS...BUT WILL LIKELY
HAVE ANY IMPACT ON OUR FA. THIS MAY NOT BE THE CASE BY FRIDAY
THOUGH AS IT CONTINUES SOUTH INTO NORTHERN OK. THE ECMWF CONTINUES
TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FRONT (1026 MB SFC HIGH BY FRI
AM OVER NE) PUSHING IT ALL THE WAY TO THE RED RIVER BY SAT AM.
FEEL LIKE THIS IS POSSIBLE CONSIDERING A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN...BUT IT APPEARS A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE SO LEANED CLOSER TO
THE GFS FOR NOW. POPS CONTINUE TO APPEAR MORE LIKELY WITH THIS
FRONT...BUT GIVEN TIMING DISCREPANCIES WILL AVOID LIKELY CAT FOR
NOW AND STICK WITH HIGH CHCS.

MUCH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS COLD
FRONT THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME LOW 70S EVEN
LOOK POSSIBLE FOR EXTREME NW OK SATURDAY WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS
WILL LIKELY RESIDE. AFTER FROPA A SLOW WARMUP IS
ANTICIPATED...BUT A PATTERN SHIFT TO A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN CONUS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS AROUND AVG AT LEAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  75  95  75  95 /   0   0   0   0
HOBART OK         75  97  76  96 /   0   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  78  98  76  98 /   0   0   0   0
GAGE OK           73  97  74  96 /  10  10   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     74  94  78  95 /  30   0   0   0
DURANT OK         75  95  75  95 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/01



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