Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 171242
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
642 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2017

.UPDATE...
Added mention of patchy drizzle to central Oklahoma this morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Small area of drizzle visible at the lowest returns nearest KTLX
this morning. Additionally, a few reports of drizzle have come in
this morning. Observations at OKC and Norman are for light fog,
but mist/drizzle are the more likely culprit. Will leave the
drizzle mention in through sunrise.

Kurtz

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 551 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2017/

AVIATION...
17/12Z TAFs. IFR/LIFR conditions expected to continue at most
terminals through at least 16Z, with slowest improvement across
central into north-central Oklahoma thereafter. VFR evolution
expected across western Oklahoma down to KSPS 15-18Z with MVFR
likely to linger across KOKC/KOUN up to KPNC through the
afternoon. In these areas, will keep the MVFR conditions late
today through end of forecast with potential for MVFR to IFR
conditions near and east of weakening surface trough.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 426 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Clouds will be slow to clear today across the eastern half of
Oklahoma, east of weakening boundary that will try to bring somewhat
drier air into western parts of Oklahoma and western north Texas.
Southern and central/eastern Oklahoma will remain dominated in
mainly south and southeast flow next few days which will keep a
marginal threat for fog and stratus each morning Monday through
Thursday, until a strong cold front passes over the region during
the day Thursday. Ahead of this cold front, there will be chances
for rain late Monday through Tuesday night. The ECM, which has
been the most aggressive model with precip, is trending toward the
more progressive and drier GFS and NAM. Greatest chances for rain
will be over southeast Oklahoma Tuesday afternoon/evening as
height falls spread quickly over northern Texas.

Still looks like at least elevated fire weather on Thursday,
primarily across southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas where
drier and warmer conditions will be seen ahead of the front.
Although it will be breezy ahead of the cold front, northerly
winds behind the front will be much stronger.

The highest impacts through the forecast period will be potential
for post frontal precipitation. All models have trended less
aggressive with wintry precipitation and this makes sense given
the drier meridional flow regime. We can still see respectable
snow accumulations with this pattern, but given the more
progressive s/wvs and developing large northeast cyclone, looks
mainly dry and quite cold to end 2017.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  53  40  62  45 /  10   0   0  10
Hobart OK         54  31  60  41 /   0   0  10  10
Wichita Falls TX  60  39  63  47 /   0   0  10  10
Gage OK           51  27  62  36 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     50  35  61  41 /  10   0   0   0
Durant OK         57  43  62  51 /  10   0  20  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

04/09



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