Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 262317 AAA
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
617 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...27/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...
PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN REMAINS FOCUSED ON TSRA DEVELOPMENT THIS
EVENING. THROUGH 00Z... TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT KLAW/KSPS
WITH MVFR CEILINGS/VIS. TIMING FOR KOKC/KOUN WOULD HAVE TSRA
IMPACTING AIRFIELDS BETWEEN 01 AND 03Z. WILL MODIFY TAFS AS
CONFIDENCE INCREASES AS STORMS MOVE TOWARD KOKC. STORMS IN SWRN OK
HAVE PUT DOWN A DECENT OUTFLOW... WITH GUSTY SE WINDS TOWARDS
KHBR/KCSM. THIS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED... 1 TO 2 HRS. FOR
KLAW/KSPS... TSRA AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT EACH
AIRFIELD OVER THE NEXT THROUGH 02 TO 03Z.

JTK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS OVER THE COMING WEEK WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM POTENTIAL...AND AN INCREASING THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...EXPECT A FEW
OCCURRENCES OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A LOW TORNADO THREAT
WILL ALSO EXIST WITH THE MORE DOMINANT STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE RED RIVER. STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN BY MIDNIGHT...THOUGH
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.

TOMORROW...SEVERE STORMS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST...AS STRONG
INSTABILITY BUILDS AHEAD OF A DRYLINE OVER THE FAR WEST TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA. MAIN THREATS WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS TOMORROW WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...WITH PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING.

WITH THE PERSISTENCE OF A MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT...COUPLED
WITH WEAK CAPPING AND SUBTLE SURFACE BOUNDARIES...STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE VIRTUALLY EVERY DAY INTO THE COMING
WEEKEND. AS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE IMPACTED EACH DAY BY THE
PREVIOUS DAYS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
WITH RESPECT TO WHEN/WHERE SEVERE STORMS MAY MOST BE LIKELY. IN
ADDITION TO SEVERE STORMS...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING IN AREAS...AS MUCH OF THE REGION REMAINS SATURATED
FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINS.

FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A FAIRLY STRONG FRONT...BY MAY
STANDARDS...LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS OKLAHOMA...STALLING DOWN ALONG
THE RED RIVER. AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE DEEP MOIST
AIRMASS...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL TO INCREASE. WITH THE FLOODING RAINS OVER THE LAST
FEW WEEKS...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CERTAINLY BE A CONCERN FOR
WORSENING RIVER FLOOD AND POTENTIAL FLASH FLOOD CONDITIONS.

THE FRONT LOOKS TO CLEAR MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...RESULTING
IN AT LEAST A BRIEF RESPITE FROM HEAVY RAIN AND STORMS FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. BUT MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING HOW
FAR SOUTH THIS FRONT WILL GET BEFORE STALLING...AND HOW LONG IT
WILL REMAIN BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD.

AUSTIN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  63  81  68  79 /  40  40  40  50
HOBART OK         61  82  67  78 /  30  30  50  50
WICHITA FALLS TX  65  86  68  82 /  40  30  50  40
GAGE OK           57  82  64  79 /  30  40  60  60
PONCA CITY OK     61  82  66  79 /  50  40  40  50
DURANT OK         66  83  68  83 /  40  30  30  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$


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