Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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153 FXUS64 KOUN 101911 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 211 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 205 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Mild and dry conditions with relatively light winds have led to a very pleasant afternoon out there with temperatures in the mid to upper 70s. Wind will decrease further overnight as surface high pressure moves overhead. Return flow will commence on Saturday as the high moves eastward and winds become southerly. To our west, a closed low will move slowly eastward from the 4 corners region, with precipitation expected to increase during the day across west Texas into the panhandles. Rain could enter our area as early as late morning across western north Texas, with better chances arriving during the afternoon and evening, spreading northeastward as a lead wave moves out ahead of the main trough. Severe weather is not anticipated on Saturday as instability will remain very weak. Ware && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 205 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Warm advection will increase over the area on Sunday, with more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity expected during the day into Sunday night. At least some instability is likely to develop, highest across our southern/southwest counties, which will lead to a marginal risk for severe hail in these areas. Isolated flooding will also be a possibility for locations that see training thunderstorms, though widespread heavy rainfall is not anticipated. Rain chances will be on the decrease and shift eastward during the day on Monday as the upper low exits the region. Another trough is expected to quickly approach in its wake, with additional chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday. At least some severe potential exists with this system, though the magnitude and location of severe weather will likely depend on moisture return and wave timing, which is uncertain at this time. Ware && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Unrestricted ceilings and visibilities will continue. A few fair weather cumulus clouds at about 4000 ft AGL will persist through the afternoon hours across central/southeast Oklahoma. Otherwise, north to northeast winds will become light and variable this evening. Mahale && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 77 56 80 58 / 0 0 10 20 Hobart OK 79 56 79 56 / 0 0 10 40 Wichita Falls TX 78 58 77 58 / 0 10 20 30 Gage OK 78 51 80 54 / 10 0 20 60 Ponca City OK 77 53 82 58 / 0 0 0 10 Durant OK 79 57 81 60 / 0 0 10 10 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM....08 AVIATION...10