Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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000
FXUS64 KOUN 231029
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
429 AM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Widespread fog will be seen this morning, with dense fog likely to
continue across much of Oklahoma most of the morning. Some areas
of northern and central Oklahoma may see at least a few hours of
freezing fog. Although this could result in riming of elevated
objects, primarily trees/towers/etc, do not think that there will
be a significant impact to roads. Far south/southeast portions of
the forecast area will be left out of the advisory with
precipitation expected to move northward from Texas and alleviate
widespread/persistent dense fog. Most widespread rain expected
across south-central and southeast parts of Oklahoma today, along
with greatest chances being over these locations again late
tonight and early Saturday. With higher QPF over areas that have
seen upwards of 3 to 5 inches the past several days, coordination
with WPC/WFOs, we will expand the Flood Watch slightly. The
rainfall that is expected tonight into early Saturday is expected
to much heavier than what we will see today as precipitable water
values ramp up with deeper/stronger southerly flow ahead of
incoming storm system.

As upper trough passes over region on Saturday, dryline/pacific cold
front will spread eastward over region and bring an end to rain
chances. Front will also allow very dry air to spread over area, and
with strong and gusty westerly winds across far western Oklahoma and
adjacent parts of northern Texas, fire weather conditions will rise
into the elevated to near-critical levels. With recent temps and
precipitation, ERC values have dropped significantly and at this
point do not anticipate an Red Flag warnings Saturday or Sunday.
However, fire danger statements will likely be needed. As far as
severe weather potential ahead of and associated with mentioned
upper storms system, there will be a hail threat late tonight and
Saturday primarily over far south-central and southeast Oklahoma.

Tranquil weather expected until Tuesday/Wednesday of next week as
another longwave trough approaches. Chances for showers and
thunderstorms will commence late Monday night and Tuesday associated
with deep theta-e advection.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  40  37  58  30 /  70  40  50   0
Hobart OK         39  37  61  29 /  40  20  30   0
Wichita Falls TX  40  39  64  31 /  90  40  50   0
Gage OK           43  33  54  24 /  10  20  10   0
Ponca City OK     44  37  51  25 /  30  30  50   0
Durant OK         45  45  63  35 / 100  80  90   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for OKZ004>006-009>012-
     014>019-021>047.

     Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for OKZ043-047-048-
     050>052.

TX...None.
&&

$$

06/11


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