Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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029
FXUS64 KOUN 051820
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1220 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.AVIATION...
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO EAST THEN NORTH THROUGH
THIS EVENING WHEN A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PASSES TO THE EAST. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1136 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

UPDATE...
MADE A FEW SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWING DENSE CIRRUS OFF THE HIGH PLAINS WAS BEGINNING TO
SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS, SO
INCREASED COVERAGE IN THE SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS. A WEAK COLD
FRONT/SFC TROUGH WAS STARTING ITS DIG INTO FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
DENSE MIDLEVEL CLOUDINESS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY
COMBINED WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR BEHIND THE BOUNDARY INDICATED BY
THE MESONET. AS A RESULT, HAD TO ADJUST THE MAX TEMPERATURE GRIDS
ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA A LITTLE BIT COOLER TO REFLECT THIS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. WIDELY
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY LOWER CEILINGS TO NEAR
MVFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AT OKC/OUN/PNC.
A WEAK COLD FRONT/TROUGH WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA...IN ADVANCE OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH. AT SURFACE...SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT.  THIS EVENING...WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD
DEVELOP AS THE TROUGH AND FRONT MOVE ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS. MOST MODELS INDICATE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THE GFS AND NAM APPEAR A LITTLE
GENEROUS WITH QPF AMOUNTS.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY...AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL AMPLIFY FURTHER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHICH WILL
RESULT IN DRY NORTHWEST FLOW FOR OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. THE
WIND WILL BE VERY GUSTY AND STRONG ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL ELEVATE
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURE NEXT WEEK WILL START AROUND AVERAGE BUT WILL
WARM THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  30  54  32  57 /  20   0   0   0
HOBART OK         27  55  30  56 /  10   0   0   0
WICHITA FALLS TX  30  56  31  60 /  10   0   0   0
GAGE OK           20  57  27  53 /  10   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     29  52  31  54 /  20   0   0   0
DURANT OK         34  55  34  59 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

68/09/09



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