Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK

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FXUS64 KOUN 301603
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1103 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Shallow, moist convection will result in widely scattered light
showers through at least the early afternoon. Otherwise windy
conditions will prevail most areas with a mostly cloudy sky.

Extended the wind advisory across most of southern and central
Oklahoma. Soundings indicate some potential for wind gusts around
35-40 knots. This will also match up a little better with
surrounding offices.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 701 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017/

DISCUSSION...

AVIATION... /For the 12z TAFs/
To start the day, most TAF sites are experiencing MVFR to IFR
ceilings. This will improve throughout the day with a return to
VFR conditions expected. Some rain or snow showers could impact
northwest TAF sites this morning, and some drizzle may linger at
eastern sites for a couple hours. Strong west/northwest winds are
expected today but will subside this evening.

OKC/OUN TAF comments: TAFs are more pessimistic in the very near
term than latest METAR indicate. The threat of MVFR to IFR
ceilings in at least a temporary state will persist through at
least mid morning. VFR conditions may return quicker than TAFs
indicate. Very light drizzle is shifting east now and should end
shortly. Winds could be stronger than currently indicated, with
gusts to 40 knots not out of the question later this afternoon.

WWR/GAG TAF comments: Latest radar mosaic has precipitation just
to the west across the Panhandles wrapping around the west side of
a deep cyclone. This will move east this morning and could result
in a period of light rain or light snow. If snow is more
predominate, visibilities could briefly be MVFR to IFR.

BRB

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 325 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Large closed upper low will transit northwest Oklahoma today with
some lingering showers and some light snow across portions of
northern Oklahoma today. Otherwise, another cool/cold day with
gusty west/northwest winds. Models differ in evolution of surface
low location through the day today, which will play some role in
determining strength of surface winds today. No matter which is
correct expect to see frequent gusts above 40 mph this afternoon.
Will issue a wind advisory for parts of western Oklahoma and
western north Texas this afternoon.

Winds will gradually diminish overnight with clearing skies will
make for another cold night with mid to upper 30s across much of
the area by Monday morning. Nice recovery in temps expected on
Monday as afternoon temps warm into the 70s.

Even warmer conditions expected Tuesday in advance of our next
storm system which will drop southeast through the Rockies into
the Plains Tuesday night into Wednesday. Strong waa will result in
showers and thunderstorms developing quickly Tuesday evening
across central and northern Oklahoma. Very little in the way of
instability is forecast, so do not anticipate severe weather, but
some localized flooding may occur as saturated ground conditions
result in much of the precip going directly to run-off. Subsequent
shifts may need to look at the potential for the need of a small
flood watch. Precip should end Wednesday afternoon, but another
cloudy, windy and cool day expected.

Gradual warm-up will then occur late week into next weekend with
dry conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  51  39  72  50 /  20   0   0   0
Hobart OK         53  36  74  49 /  20   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  60  39  78  51 /  10   0   0   0
Gage OK           43  35  70  45 /  50   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     50  38  69  46 /  50  10   0   0
Durant OK         63  43  76  53 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ004-005-009>011-
     014>017-021>048-050>052.

TX...Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>090.

&&

$$



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