Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 201953

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
153 PM MDT Thu Jul 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...Monsoonal moisture made a stronger push last night
than anticipated. As a result, we`ve had storms over the Snake
Plain into the Magic Valley today. A front is moving through the
region this afternoon. Thunderstorms will gradually move off to
the east with the front this evening. Could see a stray storm
remain over the extreme southeast corner late tonight into early
Friday morning. Otherwise, drier air will work back into the
region providing dry weather through the weekend. Looks like
monsoonal moisture returns to the area next week. This will
produce a threat for storms just about every day next week.



.AVIATION...Models have done an extremely poor job handling
shower and t-storm activity so far today across the region. Based
aviation forecast for this afternoon largely on radar and
satellite trends, blending toward model guidance early this eve
and tonight. Expecting t-storms to continue for the next several
hours near KPIH/KIDA, and through early eve near KDIJ, while
KSUN/KBYI remain dry. Coverage should remain isolated to
scattered, and do not have confidence on timing/coverage to go
higher than VCTS. As usual, the strongest cells could produce
gusty/erratic outflow winds and some hail. Otherwise, expecting
VFR conditions at all terminals through tonight and throughout
Fri. Winds this afternoon will be a bit gusty outside of t-storm
activity as reflected in the TAFs. -KSmith/Valle


.FIRE WEATHER...Monsoon moisture slipping into the southeast corner
of the state this afternoon and evening, roughly Sublett to
Palisades and north to near Island Park will be favorable for
isolated dry thunderstorms. The second concern is a surface front
moving through Central and Northern Idaho today. Estimate the front
will pass Salmon about 1100 hours and Gilmore 1700-1800 hours.
Forecast winds have been borderline Red Flag criteria for several
model runs, and this morning increased enough to favor issuing a
warning for Zone 476 below 6000 feet elevation and Zone 410. In Zone
410 the strongest winds gusting near or a little above 30 mph will
favor the Arco Desert and decrease east of Roberts. A low pressure
disturbance moving into British Columbia and Alberta on Monday will
bring dry westerly winds off the Pacific across southern Idaho and
push unstable air out of the state. Some of that unstable air will
be just across the border in Nevada and Utah the next few days. Will
look for that monsoon moisture to work back into Idaho Monday
through Wednesday. Thunderstorms with wetting rains may be possible
by next Wednesday. RS


Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for IDZ410-476.


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