Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 190829

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
229 AM MDT Mon Jun 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday. Upper ridging over the Pac
NW today will result in dry and warmer conditions. Tue is expected
to be the warmest day...but models continue to show mid level
moisture moving into ID as the upper ridge flattens to more zonal
flow. This is expected to fuel a few tstms over the mtns Tue
aftn/eve...mainly near the Divide. The moisture moves out of the
area on Wed...with isold tstms possible over the southeast

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday. Upper flow turns more
northwesterly on Thu as upper ridging builds up over the eastern
Pacific. This results in cooler and dry conditions...except for a
back door upper wave moving thru the northern Rockies on Fri. This
is expected to set off isold tstms near the Divide Fri aftn/eve.
The rest of the fcst looks dry. Hedges


.AVIATION...High pressure dominating means FEW-SCT cloud cover and
light, thermally-driven wind. Messick


.FIRE WEATHER...High pressure will continue a warming and drying
trend for the next two days, with Tue being the warmest day of the
next 7. The upper level ridge axis will move to the east of Idaho on
Wed, opening the door to subtropical moisture, while a weak trough
moves through the polar branch of the jet stream. This may interact
over southern Idaho on Wed, bringing clouds, precipitation, and
afternoon/evening thunderstorms. The trough will also increase the
wind, potentially near Wind Advisory conditions. Temperatures will
stay above climatic averages with this trough, but on Fri expect
further cooling with a shift to northwest air flow and a weak trough
from the northwest triggering some cloudiness and afternoon/evening
thunderstorm activity again. Messick



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