Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 230851
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
251 AM MDT Sun Jul 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...A few showers are appearing on radar this morning
across the Eastern Magic Valley. The moisture associated with this
is expected to track eastward and potentially allow for showers or
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening to the Southern and
Caribou Highlands. Any thunderstorms will be dry in nature,
meaning no significant rainfall will fall out of them. Temperature
wise, expect another warm, dry day today that will linger into
Monday. Additional dry thunderstorms are possible once more,
particularly along mountain ridges.

Changes to the overall weather pattern remain in the forecast
Tuesday through Thursday. An overall wet, cooler pattern will take
over from low pressure centered to our west. A series of
disturbances, including a cold front later in the week, will track
through Idaho during the week. Our confidence in this overall
trend is moderate to high at this time. What is less confident is
the specific timing of these disturbances, particularly the first
one and the final one. The locations of where heaviest rain will
set up is also an area we are less confident in. For the most
part, we are expecting portions of the Central Mountains to
obtain 1/2 inch of a rain or more over a 48 period from Tuesday
through Thursday with areas potentially obtaining over 1 inch.
Southern, Caribou and Upper Snake Highland areas are also set to
receive 1/2 inch or more during this time frame. Burn scars will
create localized flash flooding concerns. Locations across the
Snake River Plain will see the least amount of rain at less than
1/2 inch of rain overall. Keep in mind, this does not take into
account any thunderstorm rain totals. The temperature forecast has
not changed much with an expected drop of 5 to 10 degrees Tuesday
compared to Monday.

The European model solution chooses to hang on to precip through
Thursday, whereas the Global Forecast Model is drying Idaho out
quicker earlier that morning. We will keep a mention of isolated
showers in the forecast for Eastern Idaho for the latter half of
next week as a result. Additional showers and thunderstorms are
possible for Friday into next weekend surrounding the mountains
due to moisture wrapping around weak high pressure. NP/DSH

&&

.AVIATION...
Small area of showers in the Magic Valley early this morning will
linger into the morning hours and move eastward into the Snake
Plain.  Mid-level cloud bases associated with this area of showers
and very light precip will not reduce conditions below VFR.
Otherwise, potential for showers and thunderstorms near the
Utah/Nevada border this afternoon and evening that will not impact
any terminals today. DSH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A slight increase in winds today as an area of low pressure skirts
northern Idaho. Wind gusts of 20-25 mph expected in zones 410, 425,
422 and 476, particularly at mid and upper slopes and do not support
a Red Flag Warning for today.  Flow will transition to southwesterly
by Monday as an upper level trough approaches the west coast and
deepens.  As a result, monsoon moisture over the Great Basin will
move northward into southern Idaho for Monday and beyond.  Expect
development of isolated dry storms for Monday afternoon and evening
with a transition to scattered wet storms for Tuesday through
Thursday. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected to persist
through the rest of the week as monsoon moisture begins to shift to
the east of Idaho. DSH

&&


.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$


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