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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KRAH 251750
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
150 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will dominate the eastern United States through the
weekend.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 150 PM Thursday...

Surface high pressure is currently centered over southeastern
Ontario. Multiple runs of the HRRR and NAM nest have shown a sea
breeze developing along the coastline with some showers moving
inland from the breeze, and more recent runs have shown some
isolated showers making their way as far inland as Sampson and Wayne
Counties. Have added a slight chance of showers to southern/eastern
portions of those counties during the late afternoon into the early
evening, although the rest of the forecast will be dry.

Winds will generally be out of the northeast through the next 24-30
hours, and it appears that the moist flow off the Atlantic Ocean
will bring a good amount of low clouds into the region overnight,
some of which are now beginning to move onshore around Norfolk. The
insulating effect of the clouds should generally balance out the
cold advection from the northerly flow, leaving overnight
temperatures similar to last night`s values, ranging from the mid
40s to the mid 50s.

Skies should be mostly cloudy around sunrise on Friday, with some
partial clearing occurring by late morning across southern and
eastern portions of the forecast area. However, mostly cloudy skies
are likely to remain for much of the day from Raleigh to the north
and west. High temperatures will be slightly cooler on Friday
compared to today, with highs ranging from the mid 60s to the mid
70s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 345 AM Thursday...

A band of Fgen, WAA, and saturation will spread enewd and across
cntl NC between 00Z-12Z Sat, during which time the associated lift
may sufficiently deepen the combined saturated layer to support
patchy light rain over the nw NC Piedmont. A slight chance of rain
has been introduced there Fri night to account for this possibility.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 400 AM Thursday...

A mid/upr-level anticyclone and ridge will build across and offshore
the South Atlantic states through Monday. A weak shortwave trough
will then briefly weaken the ridge as it migrates across the ern US
Tue-Tue night, followed by a re-strengthening and retrogression of
the sub-tropical ridge across the lwr MS Valley and Deep South
during the middle of next week.

At the surface, cP high pressure will continue to migrate swd along
and just offshore the Middle and South Atlantic coasts through early
next week. As the high drifts swd and steadily modifies, it will
direct seasonably mild ely flow across cntl NC Sat and much warmer
sswly flow Sun-Wed. A pre-frontal/lee trough and following cold
front will then accompany the aforementioned shortwave trough over
the ern US late Tue-Wed. Associated probability of showers/storms
should be diurnally-maximized with the pre-frontal/lee trough, which
will likely move across the srn Middle Atlantic Piedmont and Coastal
Plain Tue afternoon and evening, with dry conditions in cntl NC
until that time. It appears at this time that the synoptic cold
front may not reach cntl NC, and instead only the pre-frontal trough
and perhaps outflow will do so and settle across the forecast area
by Wed morning. As such, continued well above temperatures are
likely to persist Wed, as will a slight chance of diurnal convection
given the presence and proximity of the lee trough and outflow that
may linger from Tue afternoon-evening convection.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 150 PM Thursday...

TAF period: Diurnal cumulus is sprouting over much of the forecast
area, although it appears that all cloud bases are VFR. At this time
think that all sites should remain VFR through midnight. After
midnight, northeasterly flow will allow low-level saturated air to
move into the region, and MVFR cigs are expected to spread across
all terminals between 06Z-10Z. Think there should be a few hour
period of IFR cigs around sunrise at RWI, but think that ceilings
will remain MVFR elsewhere (although guidance has been trending
lower). These clouds will begin to lift by mid-morning so that
RDU/FAY/RWI will rise to VFR conditions by the end of the 18Z TAF
period, but INT/GSO should still have restrictions. Wind will be
relatively steady state through the 24 hours out of the northeast at
5-10 kt for all sites.

Outlook: Restrictions will likely persist at INT/GSO Friday
afternoon, then restrictions appear likely to extend back southeast
across the rest of the terminals Friday night into Saturday morning.
After this, conditions should be VFR. In addition, a chance of rain
cannot be ruled out at INT/GSO Friday night, with another chance of
rain possible Tuesday afternoon at INT/GSO. Otherwise conditions
should be dry.
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&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Green
NEAR TERM...Green
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...MWS
AVIATION...Green