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000
FXUS62 KRAH 240630
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
229 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will drift southeast into central NC today, then shift
to our south tonight. High pressure will build in from the north
Thursday through Friday night, before shifting offshore over the
weekend.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 228 AM EDT Wednesday...

Partly sunny becoming mostly cloudy with a few sprinkles possible.

Mild temperatures in the lower to mid 70s.


A cold front over the Ohio Valley early this morning will move SE
into central NC late today, then shift southeast and offshore of the
NC coast late tonight. A band of mid-cloudiness is expected to
accompany the front as it moves into and through the region. Models
continue to suggest a mostly dry frontal passage as we are lacking
moisture and instability in the predominately westerly flow. The
most likely outcome should be some sprinkles or very light showers
(QPF of 0.01 or so). Highs today are expected to be in the lower to
mid 70s. The front will shift to our SE tonight. There may be an
isolated shower or two over the eastern Sandhills and SE Coastal
Plain early to mid evening. Otherwise, expect skies to be mostly
clear to partly cloudy. The low level flow will become NNE overnight
with CAA. Lows should fall back into the mid 40s NE ranging into the
lower 50s south.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 228 AM Wednesday...

Mainly sunny and about 5 degrees cooler Thursday.

1030 mb high pressure will be over PA/NY at 12z Thursday with a cold
front offshore of the Carolina coast. The high pressure will
gradually shift east and off the New England and mid-Atlantic coast
by 00z/Friday. The low level flow from the NE will gradually turn to
the E-SE late Thursday and Thursday night. This flow will be a bit
more moist, especially in the Piedmont west into the Blue Ridge.
Expect increasing cloudiness, especially in the Piedmont late
Thursday and Thursday night. Highs Thursday will be in the 65-70
range north and northeast ranging into the mid 70s over the
Sandhills and Southern Piedmont. Lows Thursday night are favored to
be in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
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&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 329 PM Tuesday...

The long term period will remain largely dry as persistent nwly flow
Thursday/Friday gives way to building/amplifying mid-level ridging
along the eastern seaboard.

After some cooler nely sfc flow Thursday and Friday (highs in the
upper 60s north to lower 70s south), flow will turn more esely and
then sswly Saturday through Tuesday as high pressure moves offshore.
As such, we`ll see a warming trend starting this weekend in the
upper 70s, followed by a climb in the mid 80s Monday and Tuesday.

The next chance for rain appears to be not until next
Tuesday/Wednesday as the upper ridge finally breaks down and an
upper trough approaches from the west.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 143 AM Wednesday...

VFR conditions are likely to persist across central NC for the next
24 hours, with high confidence. We will see a good chance for low-
level wind shear through around 12z, as a low level jet from the SW
at 35-40 kt sweeps over the region. Sct-bkn mid and high clouds will
pass over the area through tonight, then a several-hour-long period
of 7-9kft cigs with scattered light showers or sprinkles is expected
from late morning through mid-afternoon NW to SE; however, VFR
conditions will hold. Skies will then clear out by late in the TAF
valid period. Surface winds from the SW will shift to be from the W
gradually through the next 24 hours as a cold front moves through
the area.

Looking beyond 00z Thu, VFR conditions are expected to hold through
Sun, under high pressure. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...Badgett
SHORT TERM...Badgett
LONG TERM...Luchetti
AVIATION...pwb