Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 130936
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
236 AM PDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH VERY DRY
CONDITIONS. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH THE RIDGE SLOWLY
PROGRESSING TO THE EAST AS A TROUGH MOVES IN OFF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST. A LIGHT TO MODERATE AFTERNOON ZEPHYR IS EXPECTED
BOTH TODAY AND SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WEST FLOW ALOFT. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AND INTO THE 90S WRN NV AND IN THE 80S
SIERRA VALLEYS.

WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE MONDAY AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE EAST PACIFIC TROUGH. AT THIS
POINT, IT DOES NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH FOR SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AS THE STRONGEST WINDS AT 700 MB REMAIN WEST OF THE
SIERRA. WE ARE STILL EXPECTING PEAK GUSTS 25-30 MPH OR SO FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.

ONE OTHER THING TO NOTE MONDAY IS THAT THE MODELS ARE NOW LATCHING
ONTO A LITTLE MORE 700-600 MB MOISTURE THAT WILL BE ROTATING UP
FROM ARIZONA. THE EC IS EVEN PRODUCING PRECIP IN ITS LATEST
SOLUTION. HOWEVER, LOOKING AT THE GFS/NAM/SREF PRECIP IS LOOKING
LESS LIKELY. THE FORCING FROM THE SHORT WAVE WILL REMAIN OVER NW
CALIFORNIA INTO OREGON. IN ADDITION, UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
NOT AS STEEP OVER OUR AREA AS IT IS THERE AND MODELS ARE EVEN
SHOWING A CAP AROUND 550 MB. I INCREASED CLOUD COVER MONDAY, BUT
LEFT ANY PRECIP OUT DUE TO THE STABILITY AND LACK OF FORCING. WE
WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR IT, BUT IT APPEARS THAT IF ANY
STORMS DO FORM, IT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE OVER WESTERN OREGON.
WALLMANN

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
00Z MODELS CAME IN MORE AMPLIFIED WITH TROUGH FOR NEXT WEEK,
ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF. UPPER JET APPROACHES WEDNESDAY AND MOVES
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WED NIGHT-THU WITH SOME SLIGHT TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN PASSAGE OF TROUGH AXIS WITH THE GFS SLOWER. MODELS
GENERALLY KEEP THE EASTERN SIERRA AND WESTERN NV DRY AS THE AREA
REMAINS BETWEEN BEST FORCING AND INSTABILITY OVER THE PACNW AND
MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WITH A FEW MODEL MEMBERS
BRINGING QPF TO OUR NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS LATE WED THRU
THURSDAY NIGHT. MAINTAINED LOW POPS/NO WEATHER MENTION AS WE AWAIT
BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE DETAILS. TYPICAL ZEPHYR WINDS TUESDAY WILL
ENHANCE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF TROUGH WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH LIKELY.
MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE POST FRONTAL THURSDAY BUT WINDS WILL STILL
BE LOCALLY BREEZY. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES, TUESDAY DOES NOT LOOK
MUCH DIFFERENT FROM MONDAY, SO WE WARMED DAYTIME HIGHS. COOLING WILL
BEGIN ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY, SPREADING TO ALL
AREAS THU-FRI WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO SEASONAL LEVELS. IT IS NOT A
PARTICULARLY COLD SYSTEM, SO WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FREEZING
TEMPERATURES OUTSIDE THE TYPICALLY COLDER SIERRA VALLEYS. HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS TODAY. THERE WILL BE A WEAK ZEPHYR PUSH LATE IN
THE DAY FROM KRNO/KCXP NORTHWARD TO KSVE WITH GUSTS AROUND 20KT FOR
A FEW HOURS EARLY THIS EVENING. HOHMANN

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)





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