Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 131109
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
309 AM PST Sat Jan 13 2018

.SYNOPSIS...

Dry conditions and above average temperatures are expected
through the weekend with high pressure over northeast California
and western Nevada. Winds increase Monday ahead of a modest, fast-
moving system for Monday night and Tuesday. A much stronger
system is expected to bring gusty winds, mountain snow, and valley
rain and snow Thursday into Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

Above average temperatures and dry conditions will persist through
Monday as high pressure dominates the weather pattern. High pressure
will begin to weaken late Monday as a shortwave ahead of a large
trough pushes through the region.

Ridge winds will be on the increase Monday ahead of the initial
shortwave skirting across far northeastern CA and northwestern NV
with breezy surface winds possible by the afternoon. Generally
precipitation chances do not look stellar with this lead wave, but
there will be some low chances for precipitation on Monday west of
the Sierra crest. The main portion of the system push in Monday
night through Tuesday with a cold front dropping through on Tuesday
afternoon/evening. Although this Tuesday system appears to be on the
weaker end of the storm spectrum, it will bring some decent chances
for precipitation across the Sierra and western Nevada with snow
levels around 7000 to 8000 feet. Sierra commuters be wary Tuesday
night for snow accumulations, especially since we haven`t really had
to deal with the snow commutes lately.

Residual rain and snow showers may stick around through early
Wednesday morning so check the road conditions before the morning
commute.

Bottom line: If you have outdoor activities or projects planned,
make it happen this holiday weekend, before active weather returns
by Tuesday. -Edan

.LONG TERM...Wednesday and beyond...

The next (stronger) storm system is still on track to move into
the region late Thursday into Friday. Low pressure off the Pacific
Northwest will have a pretty impressive moisture flux out over the
Pacific, but it does look to weaken the 850-700mb flow as it moves
further south towards northern CA/NV. For this reason this Pacific
Storm doesn`t look like anything huge for the Sierra, more like a
standard January storm by Sierra standards. That being said, with
the recent months of dry and warm weather, this will most certainly
be a welcome change to get beneficial snowpack in the Sierra.

Winds will increase late Wednesday into Thursday ahead of the cold
front, as 700mb winds increase to near 50kts. The strong jet
stream moving into far northern CA will be in a favorable position
for us to see pretty strong winds along the Sierra Front in
eastern CA and western NV with gusts over 50 mph in the valleys
and Sierra ridge winds over 100 mph.

Snow levels will drop Thursday night behind the cold front,
dropping snow levels down to most valley floors by early Friday
morning. Snow amounts of up to a foot or more are likely in the
High Sierra above 7000 feet, along with several inches of snow
down to Lake Tahoe level and even to near 5500 feet. As the snow
levels fall to the valley floors Friday morning, light snow
accumulations may be possible for the Friday morning commute.

Trough settles in Friday for continued instability snow
showers/lake effect snow showers and much colder temperatures--
actually near normal for January if you can believe that!
Unsettled weather pattern will most likely remain through the
second half of January with cooler temperatures and better chances
for storm systems moving into the region. -Hoon

&&

.AVIATION...

Dry and mild conditions are expected through the weekend with VFR
conditions and generally light winds. Morning fog may be a
possibility in the Martis Valley through the weekend. -Snyder/Hoon

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno



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