Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 022144
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
144 PM PST TUE FEB 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL WIND DOWN THIS EVENING WITH ANOTHER CHANCE AT
SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WEAK SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT ARE SLOWLY
BEGINNING TO DIMINISH. EXPECT THESE TO BE OVER SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET AS THE WEAK WAVE EXITS WITH SOME CLEARING THIS EVENING.
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, BUT NOT QUITE AS COLD AS
LAST NIGHT AS MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN BY MIDNIGHT. THESE ARE
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM SET TO ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS ONE IS WEAK AS WELL, AND THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED
SLIGHTLY FASTER AND WEAKER. GIVEN THIS ONE CAME IN A LITTLE
STRONGER THAN MODELS ADVERTISED, HAVE NOT CHANGED THE FORECAST
OTHER THAN TO SPEED UP TIMING. THE BEST SHOT OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
WILL BE NORTH OF I-80 WITH 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE.

AS THAT WAVE EXITS, A STRONG RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ALONG THE
WEST COAST. NORTHEAST FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL KEEP
TEMPS FROM WARMING QUICKLY, BUT THEY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO WARM
TO NEAR AVERAGE BY FRIDAY. ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME FZFG OVERNIGHT IN SNOW COVERED VALLEYS,
ESPECIALLY AROUND TRUCKEE, FALLON AND THE SIERRA VALLEY. IF FZFG
IS EXTENSIVE, IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF SO TEMPS THERE
MAY BE EVEN SLOWER TO RISE. THE GOOD NEWS IS WE ARE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF PEAK INVERSION SEASON SO THIS IS MUCH LESS LIKELY TO
OCCUR THAN A MONTH AGO. WALLMANN

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BRUSH THE OREGON BORDER SATURDAY FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NORTH OF SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH. ANY QPF
WILL BE LIGHT AS A MAJORITY OF THE LIFT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
REGION. ONCE THIS FEATURE PASSES, A STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND DIRECT STORMS AND CLOUDS WELL AWAY
FROM THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NV. IT WILL ALSO RESULT IN VALLEY
INVERSIONS AS UPPER SLOPES AND RIDGES WARM MORE SIGNIFICANTLY SUN-
TUE. ONE MITIGATING FACTOR FOR RAPIDLY DETERIORATING AIR QUALITY
WILL BE THE EAST-SOUTHEAST GRADIENT WHICH COULD BRING AT LEAST
WEAK VENTILATION TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AS FAR AS VALLEY
TEMPERATURES, WE STAYED BELOW THE MOS GUIDANCE. SOME SIERRA
VALLEYS COULD BE AS WARM AS LOWER VALLEYS IN THIS SETUP. HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF LOW
CLOUDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY, MAINLY TO KTRK-KTVL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, ACTIVITY WILL BE WINDING
DOWN AS WE HEAD TOWARD SUNDOWN WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING THIS
EVENING. SOME PATCHY FREEZING FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KTRK ALTHOUGH
CLOUDS INCREASING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT WOULD BE A MITIGATING FACTOR.
SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW (ABOUT 20%). THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AGAIN AFFECTING MOST TAF SITES.
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND LIMITED MAINLY TO AN
INCH AT BOTH KTRK/KTVL AND AREAS NORTH OF I-80. HOHMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)


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