Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 130923
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
223 AM PDT SUN APR 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AND BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE WITH CHOPPY
CONDITIONS ON LAKES TODAY. A COUPLE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY LEAD TO A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS NECESSARY TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. STILL ON
TRACK FOR SOME BREEZY WINDS TODAY WITH A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT DIRECTING WINDS OUT OF THE EAST. THE STRONGEST WINDS
SHOULD OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON, BUT GUSTS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS
THAN 30 MPH. EXPECT CHOPPY CONDITIONS ON AREA LAKES WITH THE
HIGHEST WAVES ON WESTERN SHORES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE
TO SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH A WARMING TREND EARLY THIS WEEK BACK
INTO THE MID 70S FOR WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL COME WITH A PASSING
SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE FRONT ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF I-80 WITH THE BEST CHANCES TOWARDS THE OREGON
BORDER. SINCE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL, A THUNDERSTORM
WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. HOWEVER, THE CHANCE IS ONLY
ABOUT 10% WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME. WITH THE LOW`S
CENTER SO FAR DISPLACED FROM THIS PORTION OF THE SURFACE FRONT, DO
NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. BOYD

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST THIS MORNING.

WEDNESDAY WILL BRING A BRIEF COOL DOWN WITH NEAR AVERAGE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES FOR THE LOWER VALLEYS AS A BACKDOOR COOL FRONT PUSHES
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN. AS A COMPARISON, THE FRONT PASSING
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
ONE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING (INCLUDING SIMILAR HIGH
TEMPERATURES).

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, FLAT RIDGING WILL MOVE OVERHEAD FOR A RETURN TO
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION-WISE, THERE ARE TWO
WEAK FEATURES MOVING INTO THE RIDGE WHICH COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS
TO EASTERN CALIFORNIA OR FAR NORTHWEST NEVADA THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY. THE FIRST ONE IS THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE NORTHWEST CONUS, WHICH COULD BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS NORTH OF
SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH. THE OTHER IS AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WHICH COULD ENHANCE MID LEVEL INSTABILITY NEAR
THE SIERRA WITH DEFORMATION/SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
NORMALLY, I WOULD THINK THE FORCING TOO WEAK TO BRING CONVECTION
GIVEN THAT IT IS ONLY MID APRIL. HOWEVER, WITH TEMPERATURES SO FAR
ABOVE AVERAGE FRIDAY SHOWERS NEED TO BE CONSIDERED FOR POSSIBLE
INCLUSION INTO FUTURE FORECASTS, ESPECIALLY IN THE SIERRA SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50.

SATURDAY, UPPER RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD MORE STRONGLY OVERHEAD. THE
GFS KEEPS MORE RESIDUAL MOISTURE AROUND THAN THE ECMWF WITH EVEN A
HINT AT A FEW SHOWERS. WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD, IT MAY WIND
UP JUST BEING FLAT CUMULUS. HOWEVER, I WILL NOT PULL THE SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA/FAR NORTHWEST NEVADA YET. SNYDER

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY FOR EASTERN CALIFORNIA AND
WESTERN NEVADA. SFC WINDS N-NE GUSTING UP TO 20-25 KT TODAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NEVADA. STRONGER EAST WINDS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE NORTHERN SIERRA CREST COULD PRODUCE INCREASED TURBULENCE
THIS AFTN THROUGH TONIGHT. SNYDER

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






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