Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 232200
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
300 PM PDT SAT APR 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move into Western Nevada Sunday into Monday with
more showers and below average temperatures. A few valley snow
showers are possible for the Monday morning commute. Unsettled
weather will continue through next week with below average
temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Quiet day under a short wave ridge with sunny skies and light
winds. Cloud cover will increase tonight late, but not enough for
another cold night with some fog likely in the Martis Valley.

Then models in decent agreement with the next upper low for
Sunday afternoon into Monday. Winds aloft increase slightly, but
the bigger impact will be colder temps aloft. This will create
instability with scattered showers all locations with the best
coverage near the Oregon Border. Enough instability will be there
too for a few thunderstorms. We are not expecting a big event, but
the heavier showers and storms will be capable of some brief heavy
rains and accumulation small hail.

Showers should wave briefly with the loss of heating, then the
upper low moves in. More showers will form as snow levels drop to
near the valley floors. There remains a small chance (25%) of a
deformation band forming near I-80 Monday morning. If this were to
happen, a couple quick inches of snow could impact the morning
commute. Uncertainty remains high with that portion of the
forecast, but we are quite confident there will be a few showers
around and it will be quite cold. Highs will only be in the 40s
Monday.

This low then pulls away Monday night with showers gradually
diminishing and cold overnight temps expected to continue. Tuesday
will remain cool under north to northeast flow, but another brief
dry period is expected. Wallmann

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Saturday...
Unsettled weather continues from mid-week into next weekend with
a series of weak to moderate spring storms. These systems will
keep temperatures slightly below seasonal averages bringing
several rounds of precipitation.

Mean upper level troughing will remain over the Western United
States keeping the storm track directed into the Sierra and
Western Nevada. The first wave will move into the Sierra Wednesday
morning slowly ejecting into the Inter-Mountain West by Friday
evening. Another wave immediately follows the first dropping out
of the Pacific Northwest into the upper-level trough base keeping
precipitation chances going into the weekend. The ECMWF deflects
the additional wave north of the region, but have opted to favor
the GFS which has verified well recently.

The overall effect will be a prolonged period of intermittent
rain and higher level snow showers pretty much from Wednesday
through Saturday; snow levels will hover 6000-7000 feet. Brief,
more intense showers may drag the snow level down to 5000 feet
with little to no accumulation. There will be breaks in
precipitation, but afternoon instability will kick off showers
each day. There appears to be sufficient instability for to
mention slight chances of thunderstorms each afternoon Wednesday
through Friday. Boyd

&&

.AVIATION...
A few areas of freezing fog are likely tonight in the Eastern
Sierra valleys, especially at KTRK. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
expected for the rest of today with lighter winds.

Another area of low pressure will begin to affect the region on
Sunday with increasing winds, clouds, and a chance of showers
Sunday into Monday for all terminals. Expect periods of IFR/MVFR
in the Sierra by Monday morning with periods of snow. MVFR
conditions will be possible for Sierra Front with snow levels
dragging down to around 4500 feet. It is possible that there could
be periods of IFR and light rain/snow mix at KRNO and KCXP Monday
morning as well. Hoon/Boyd

&&





.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno



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