Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KREV 212049
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
149 PM PDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER BY
WEDNESDAY AS A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NEVADA. A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80. LOCALLY BREEZY
AND DRIER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A STRENGTHENING
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONCE AGAIN FIRING, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80 IN
AN AREA OF LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET. WINDS ALOFT
WERE QUITE A BIT STRONGER THAN SUNDAY AND STORM MOTIONS ARE
NOTABLY FASTER WHICH WILL REDUCE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. HOWEVER
THERE IS ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH STORMS, SO FAR LOOKING
MORE ORGANIZED FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL. STRONG GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS AND HAIL UP TO ONE INCH ARE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER
CELLS. FURTHER SOUTH, INSTABILITY IS BETTER WITH SPC SREF CAPE
BETWEEN 750-1000 J/KG. AT THE SAME TIME, WINDS ALOFT ARE
INCREASING AND STORMS WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME A BIT MORE SHEAR. ANY
STRONG STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT INTO WESTERN NV
WILL BE CAPABLE MAINLY OF STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WITH SMALL HAIL.
COVERAGE WEST OF HIGHWAY 395 FROM RENO SOUTHWARD IS GOING TO BE
ISOLATED EARLY THIS EVENING.

FOR LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY, SHORTWAVE WILL BE EXITING BUT
LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY BASIN AND RANGE
AND AREAS TO THE NORTH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO BRUSH THE
AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH FAST STORM MOTIONS AND A BIT LESS
MOISTURE. SO STORMS WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO DRIER. WHILE STORM
COVERAGE WILL BE ON THE DECREASE, THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED
THREAT FOR DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 50 AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 395. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE
GREATEST ACROSS NORTHWEST NEVADA AND FAR NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA WITH
A SECONDARY AREA OF BETTER COVERAGE ALONG AFTERNOON ZEPHYR NEAR
THE SIERRA FRONT (PINE NUTS-VIRGINIA RANGE).

A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL FINALLY PUSH ALL CONVECTION OUT OF THE
AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT AND AREAS
NORTH OF I-80. AFTER THE RECENT RAINS, AND NOSE OF DRY SLOT COMING
IN LATE WEDNESDAY, WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY WIDESPREAD FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. HOWEVER THESE WINDS COULD CAUSE PROBLEMS FOR
ONGOING FIRES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL THROUGH MIDWEEK.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT. THUS, ONLY
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO FOLLOW MOST CURRENT TRENDS. DRIER SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL ELIMINATE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM MID WEEK INTO THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMES ORIENTED
FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL DISRUPT THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE FLUX
AS IT DEFORMS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN RESULTING IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND FASTER AFTERNOON WINDS.

TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE
RIDGE REASSERTS ITSELF. HIGHS WILL APPROACH TRIPLE DIGITS FOR
WESTERN NEVADA VALLEYS BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, THE
THERMAL TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR AFTERNOON BUILD-UPS ON
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DID SPREAD CONVECTION NORTHWARD ALONG
THE SIERRA INTO LASSEN COUNTY INCLUDING THE TAHOE BASIN FOR
MONDAY. MAY NEED TO EXPAND COVERAGE TO WESTERN NEVADA CONVERGENCE
ZONES AS DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS TO ROUTE AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY AGAIN. BOYD

&&

.AVIATION...
TSTMS HAVE ALREADY INITIATED THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST COVERAGE
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. ONCE AGAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS FOR AVIATION INTERESTS WILL BE HAIL...GUSTY SFC WINDS AND
FLIGHT LEVEL TURBULENCE WITH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. WINDS GUSTS OF
50 KTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST TSTMS TODAY.

THERE REMAINS A SMALL CHANCE OF TSTMS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AGAIN
TUESDAY...BUT THE CHANCES ARE LESS THAN TODAY. DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO
THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER SFC WINDS
OVERALL...BUT NO CHANCE OF STORMS. 20/BOYD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.