Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
FXUS65 KREV 250307
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
807 PM PDT Mon Apr 24 2017
Light precipitation continues across parts of the Tahoe basin
north into northeast California as moisture in the low levels is
lifted over the higher terrain to the west. The lack of broad
scale forcing and deep moisture should keep any precipitation
amounts very light this evening. By late tonight the wave
responsible for all of this will be pushing to the east with some
partial clearing possible. Clouds may not clear completely so the
prospects for fog in the Martis Valley are rather low.
Winds will slowly continue to decrease tonight as this wave moves
east. Already winds have dropped enough on Lake Tahoe and Pyramid
Lake to allow the Lake Wind Advisories to expire. Pyramid has the
extra feature of the lake closing at sunset so even if winds were
to continue gusting close to 30 mph we would still let the
Minor updates for the winds will be out soon.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 224 PM PDT Mon Apr 24 2017/
Near to slightly below normal temperatures and breezy conditions
along with periods of light showers will be the main story this
week. A mainly dry cold front will bring another shot of cold air
for Friday, with breezy north winds making it feel even colder.
Drier conditions are expected heading into the weekend with a
warming trend possible.
SHORT TERM...Through Thursday Night...
Gusty winds continue this afternoon, and should weaken overnight as
the low level jet slides farther south. Breezy northwest winds will
once again develop Tuesday afternoon, but will not be nearly as
strong as the winds today. The next main push of wind comes on
Wednesday, but the core of the low level jet remains near the
California coast, with the upper jet diving into northeastern
Nevada. The surface pressure gradient strengthens, but with a cooler
air mass already over the region, the temperatures gradient isn`t
strong. This is likely to lead to winds Wednesday being slightly
stronger than today. Widespread valley gusts of 30 to 45 mph are
anticipated with 80-90 mph across ridgelines. Wind prone locations
could easily see gusts in the 50-60 mph range, but considering the
aforementioned factors, at this point am not thinking winds will be
this strong through a widespread area.
A few showers are lingering across the region this afternoon, but
will continue to dissipate into the evening. Further clearing is
expected overnight into Tuesday as weak shortwave ridging builds
into the west. Warm air advection may drive very light rain near the
Oregon border Tuesday afternoon and evening, but most areas should
remain dry. The stronger wave for Wednesday has been tracking
farther east as the jet pushes into eastern Nevada. This is likely
to lead to less precipitation across the Sierra and western Nevada
with only light showers likely on Wednesday. After this system
clears out Wednesday night, the region will once again see a break
in the precipitation chances for Thursday.
A system dropping into the four corners region will send a back door
cold front through the area on Thursday night with a cool and breezy
day on Friday. More details can be found in the long term section
LONG TERM...Friday through Monday.
Conditions trend colder for Friday with breezy northerly winds
expected for the Sierra and Western Nevada. Temperatures for
Friday and Saturday were trended to cooler raw model guidance
based on the flow regime. Expect highs in the 50s for Western
Nevada and 40s for Sierra valleys on Friday before warming up
around 60 and 50 respectively for Saturday.
By Sunday, ridging amplifies in the eastern Pacific and begins to
shift towards the Western United States. This will herald a period
of relative warmth with intermittent cool, but dry, waves that move
through the Nevada interior. Several weak waves are anticipated
through early next week; each wave will bring a northerly wind shift
and some breezy winds. Current timing favors waves moving through
Sunday and Monday afternoons with potential impacts for Pyramid Lake
as flow aligns with its major axis. Otherwise, conditions are
The eastern Pacific ridge will remain the dominant weather feature
into the following week. Any change in its position will have
implications on what weather is experienced in western Nevada and
the Sierra. Current model projections favor a more eastward
depiction of the ridge with continued benign activity. However, it
is common this time of the year to have digging troughs and minor
retrogressions of the blocking ridge pattern. As such, there is
still a moderate chance from a more significant trough moving into
the region later next week. Boyd
Gusty winds continue into the evening as a decent cold front moves
through the region. SFC wind gusts to 35 kts are possible at all
terminals this afternoon into the early evening. Lgt-Mod Mtn wave
turbulence will continue as well.
Aside form the winds, areas of MVFR west of a KSVE to KTVL line with
mtn obscn in -RA. Rain looks to end around 06Z tonight with
generally VFR conditions all areas after. Tuesday will see lighter
winds and VFR before winds increase again on Wednesday along with a
few more showers. Wallmann/Boyd
For more information from the National Weather Service visit...