Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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FXUS61 KRNK 230928

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
528 AM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016

High pressure centered over the Tennessee Valley today, will move
east and off the southeast Atlantic coast tonight. A fast moving
upper level disturbance will move east through the upper Midwest
today, bringing a cold front through our region late tonight or
early Monday. High pressure will then build southeast from the
upper Midwest and across the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic states
from Monday through Wednesday.


As of 500 AM EDT Sunday...

Cool start this morning with temperatures in the 30s to lower
40s. A northwesterly breeze continues, especially across the
higher ridges with wind chills in the upper 20s.

High pressure extends from the Tennessee Valley south to the Gulf
Coast. This feature will move east today, providing fair weather
throughout the southeastern U.S.,including the Mid Atlantic.
Clockwise flow around the high will result in a continuation of a
westerly sort of breeze across the forecast area throughout the
day today. Temperatures this afternoon will be about 5 to 10
degrees warmer than Saturday under Mostly Sunny skies.

A fast moving upper level disturbance (short wave trough) will
move east across the upper midwest today. A clipper sort of
surface low and associated surface front will move from the upper
midwest into the Great Lakes by this evening. The surface front
will cross the Ohio Valley tonight, moving across the mountains
late tonight or very early Monday. The front is expected to be dry
with only a shallow layer of low level cloudiness which will fade
as the front crosses the mountains early Monday. The biggest by-
product from the front will be a re-enforcing shot of dry air
along with breezy conditions.

That said, tonight`s low temperatures (which are progged to be in
the 40s) will likely occur early, with mixing from the wind
resulting in steady or rising temperatures late tonight.


As of 400 AM EDT Sunday...

An upper level shortwave trough and associated cold front is
expected to sweep east of the area on Monday. The bulk of the energy
and moisture will remain north of the region near PA/NY/NJ. At this
point, only western Greenbrier County West Virginia has isolated
showers forecast on Monday. The remainder of the region will be
precipitation free.  However, expect gusty winds to continue across
the region with the potential for the higher peaks to reach 30 to 40
mph in the morning, but taper to values closer to 15 to 25 mph by
the afternoon. Piedmont regions can expect 10 to 20 mph gusts early,
but decrease as the day progresses.

A broad area of high pressure will move into the area behind the
front and keep our forecast on the dry side through at least early
Wednesday night. Winds will slowly decrease in speed as the center
of the high draws closer and the pressure gradient slackens.

Our next chance of precipitation will come late Wednesday night as
an area of low pressure moves eastward through the Great Lakes
region. Isolated showers are expected across parts of southeast West
Virginia. Cloud cover will be increasing from west to east during
the night in association with this system. The remainder of the
forecast area will remain precipitation free Wednesday night.

Temperatures during this portion of the forecast will trend cooler
each day. Expect readings on Monday to average about ten degrees
above normal. By Wednesday, temperatures will average five degrees
below normal.

Frost will be possible across parts of the New and Greenbrier River
Valleys and portions of the southern Alleghany Highlands late Monday
night into early Tuesday morning, and will be reflected as such in
the forecast. Frost will also be possible over parts of the New and
Greenbrier River Valleys and the Mountain Empire and Grayson
Highlands regions of southwest Virginia Tuesday night into early
Wednesday morning. However, this will not be reflected in the
forecast as October 25th will have marked the end of our
freeze/frost program for these regions for the forecast area. From
October 26th and onward into the winter climatologically speaking,
frosts and freezes are a normal occurrence and not specifically
mentioned. The freeze/frost program for our eastern counties
continues until November 15th.


As of 400 AM EDT Sunday...

Cool high pressure will bring us one more quiet day as it wedges down
the east side of the Appalachians on Wednesday. Then, a deepening short
wave will move out of the Great Lakes region and take up a position as
a closed low off the mid Atlantic coast. The accompanying surface low
will push a cold front through the area with a good chance of
precipitation in the late Thursday/Thursday night timeframe. High pressure
arrives behind the front with fair weather expected into the weekend
with just some lingering showers along the western slopes on Friday.

With cool high pressure over the region for most of the period and a
late week cold front, expect temperatures to be running a few degrees
below normal.


As of 530 AM EDT Sunday...

Cloud bases of 6-8kft will be found across WV early this
morning associated with warm air advection cloudiness across the
eastern Ohio Valley. Models dissolve this area of cloud along the
western slopes of the Appalachians this morning with widespread
clear skies for this afternoon. With dry high pressure centered
just south of the region, little or no impacts to aviation
interests today with fair/dry weather supporting VFR through the
24 hour TAF period. Clockwise winds around the surface high (which
is centered over the Tennessee Valley) with result in a westerly
breeze today with some occasional surface gusts of 15 to 20 kts.

A fast moving upper level disturbance will move from Minnesotainto
the Great Lakes region by this evening. Any precip with this
feature remaining well north of the Virginias. Biggest impact to
the mid Atlantic will be the passage of a dry cold front early
Monday resulting in another uptick in wind speed with potential
gusts of 20-25 kts out of the northwest on Monday. Any cloud
element associated with the front will fade as it crosses the

Extended aviation discussion...

Monday...Widespread VFR. Post frontal wind gusts of 20-25 kts
possible. High pressure will build across the area during the
afternoon and evening with diminishing winds Monday night.

Tuesday and Wednesday...Potential for river valley fog in the
mountain valleys with local vsby restrictions between 08-14Z each
morning, otherwise widespread VFR.

Thursday...Low pressure is forecast to move across the upper
midwest and into the Great lakes with a surface front crossing the
Ohio Valley. Threat for showers and sub-VFR will be possible
along this front which would impact the central Appalachians for
Thursday and Thursday night. Attm, this does not appear that it
will have a significant impact to our region. Biggest impact would
be from Ohio Valley north into Great Lakes closer to the surface


Little or no rain has fallen across the northwest North Carolina
Piedmont in the last 14 days. Conditions are becoming increasingly
dry for western North Carolina, just east of the Blue Ridge.
Drying conditions will continue for this region again today, and
for much of the upcoming work week.  Passage of a dry front early
Monday may pose control problems for fire lee of the Blue Ridge,
and especially for areas which have not seen rainfall. Greatest
concern would be from Mount Airy, North Carolina, and areas to
the southwest, including Pilot Mountain. Wind gusts of 15 to 25
mph are possible Monday, coupled with humidity minimums near 30


VA...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for VAZ007-009.


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