Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000
FXUS61 KRNK 051543
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1043 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA SHIFTS EAST TO THE
COAST BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH COLDER AIR SHIFTING IN FROM
THE NORTH AND WEST. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE EAST OF US LATE THIS
EVENING AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST BUILDS EAST TO
THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1025 AM EST THURSDAY...

WE ARE IN NOWCAST MODE AND EXPECT NUMEROUS UPDATES AS WE WATCH
PTYPE TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO FZRA/SLEET TO SNOW. SLEET HAS MADE
IT AS FAR EAST AS WYTHEVILLE TO PEARISBURG...WITH SNOW WORKING
INTO ROCKBRIDGE TO SUMMERS TO TAZEWELL. PRECIP MODES WILL BE
INTERCHANGING AT TIMES UNTIL THE LOW OVER WRN NC SHIFT SOMEWHAT
EAST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALLOWING FOR THE COLDER AIR TO FILTER
SOUTHEAST. THE 12Z NAM DID A GREAT JOB PICKING UP THE WARM NOSE AS
OUR SOUNDING THIS MORNING SHOWED +6 TO +7 AT 800 MB.

THIS HAS SLOWED DOWN THE TRANSITION/ONSET TIME OF SNOW/SLEET.
THE HIGH RES MODELS ARE DOING A DECENT JOB PERTAINING TO RADAR
ECHOES...THE ISSUE WILL BE QPF VS PTYPE. UPDATED FORECAST REFLECTS
USING THE NAM AS THE THERMAL PROFILE MIXED WITH HIGH RES FOR SFC
TEMPS/POPS/QPF. WHAT THIS TURNS OUT IS LESS SNOWFALL FOR THE
SOUTHERN CWA AS COLDER AIR LAGS BEHIND DEEP MOISTURE. CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME HEAVIER BANDS LOOKING UPSTREAM OVER THE TN VALLEY AS THIS
SHIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD SW VA THIS AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP HEADLINES
IN PLACE...BUT EXPECT MARGINAL SLEET/FZRA THE REST OF THE
DAY...WITH BEST SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS STILL CONFINED TO THE
ALONG AND NORTH OF A BECKLEY TO AMHERST LINE...WHERE 4 TO 8 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE...HIGHEST IN BATH COUNTY.

TEMPS STAYING WARMER LONGER IN THE SOUTHEAST WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE
TO LESS ACCUMULATION LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM EST THURSDAY...

DURING EARLY EVENING...PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY BE MAKING THE
TRANSITION FROM SLEET TO SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHSIDE AND NORTH
CAROLINA PIEDMONT...JUST AHEAD OF THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW WHICH
WILL BE RACING EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. EXPECT WE WILL HAVE ALL
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL OUT OF OUR AREA BY 10 PM...WITH DECREASING
CLOUDS THEREAFTER. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD EAST UP THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY...MAKING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS BY
SUNRISE FRIDAY...IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING.
THIS WILL RESULT IN ONE LAST SHOT OF FRIGID AIR FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE AS WE START FRIDAY MORNING OFF WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
NEAR ZERO ALONG THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR...TO THE LOW 20S ACROSS
THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA. THE ARCTIC AIRMASS
WILL KEEP FRIDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO AROUND 40 SOUTH.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
WINDS SHIFT MORE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK
COLD FRONT...CAUSING THE COLDER AIR TO RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH.
WILL START SATURDAY OFF WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE HELPING AFTERNOON HIGHS
WARM INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND THE LOW TO MID 50S EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

THE WARMUP WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...ALBEIT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
BUT OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID/UPPER 40S WEST TO THE MID/UPPER 50S EAST. WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE
ON AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL OF BRINGING LIGHT RAIN EARLY
IN THE NIGHT...CHANGING OVER TO A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TOWARD SUNRISE
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

THERE HAS BEEN CONSIDERABLE VARIATION IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE
DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY TIME PERIOD. WHILE EACH
IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT THAT A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE EASTERN THIRD OF CONUS...THERE HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENCIES AS TO
WHETHER OR NOT...AND WHEN...AND WHAT TRACK A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM MAY GET PICKED UP ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS TROUGH AND
PROGRESS NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA. THE GFS HAS NOT BEEN FAVORABLE
OF THIS OCCURRENCE. THE ECMWF WAS OPTIMISTIC ON AN ARRIVAL A
SOUTHERN SYSTEM ON MONDAY. OUR FORECAST TODAY WILL REFLECT
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO MODERATE THROUGH MONDAY...WITH THE
THINKING THAT THE DEVELOPING TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR
WEST...AND WE WILL CONTINUE IN WARM AIR ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE.
IT WILL ALSO REFLECT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA WHERE 850 MB
FLOW WILL BE MORE W-NW. IT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH RAIN
OR FREEZING RAIN.

THE LATEST GUIDANCE FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK
CONTINUES TO FLUCTUATES IN REGARDS TO THE TIMING AND TRACK OF A
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. THE LATEST TRENDS BRING THE GFS INTO PLAY
NOW FOR BRINGING A SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...THE
CANADIAN AND ECWMF STILL A LITTLE EARLIER. IN ADDITION TO THE SMALL
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY...WE WILL ALSO ADD WEDNESDAY INTO
THE MIX TO REFLECT THE MODEL VARIATIONS AND A SMALL POTENTIAL EACH
DAY FOR A LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION TO PROGRESS OVER OR
NEAR THE REGION. WHILE MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD EXPERIENCE RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY...A FEW SPOTS IN THE SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA MAY BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE MILDER THAN THOSE OF TUESDAY. EXPECT A RANGE OF
LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 655 AM EST THURSDAY...

LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH CAROLINA WILL DRAW COLD AIR INTO THE
REGION CHANGING RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...THEN SNOW.
CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR IF NOT ALREADY THERE. VISIBILITIES WILL
REMAIN IFR THROUGH 22Z/5PM AT MOST SITES. LOW CONFIDENCE AS TOO
WHEN FZRA AND PL WILL START AT LOCAL AIRPORTS. AT THIS TIME USING
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS TRENDS AND NAM TEMPERATURE PROFILES HAVE
KROA/KBLF/KLWB AND KBCB CHANGING TO FZRA/PL/SN BY NOON AND AT
KLYH/KDAN BEFORE 4PM. SNOW WILL BE ENDING AROUND 00Z/7PM AT ALL
SITES. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN MVFR IN THE MOUNTAINS BUT MODERATE
CONFIDENCE THAT CLOUDS WILL LIFT TO VFR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

EXTENDED FORECAST...

FRIDAY TO SUNDAY WILL SEE A RETURN TO HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR
WEATHER. SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY IN THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS WITH BRIEF MVFR EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 1030 AM EST THURSDAY...

FLOODING STILL ONGOING OVER THE BLUESTONE AND CLINCH RIVERS.
PRECIP CHANGING TO SLEET/SNOW WILL CUT BACK ON RUNOFF WHILE TEMPS
FALL.

WILL BE WATCHING THE UPPER JAMES AND THE GREENBRIER RIVERS AS
WELL FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD CONCERNS.



&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ007-
     009>018-022-034.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ019-
     020-023-024.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     VAZ032-033-043>046-058-059.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ035-
     047.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ001-
     002-018.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ003-019.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ004>006-020.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ042>044-507-508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...AMS/DS/JH/KK
HYDROLOGY...PM/WP


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