Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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504
FXUS61 KRNK 260101
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
901 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to extend into the area from the
west tonight through Monday. A fast moving, moisture limited,
disturbance will cross the region from the northwest on
Tuesday. Cool and dry weather is expected mid- week before heat
and humidity, along with daily rounds of showers and storms
return for Friday into next weekend.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 850 PM EDT Sunday...

Much drier air, with dewpoints in the 40s and 50s, still
remains just northwest of the piedmont this evening where some
moisture lingers roughly along and south of a MTV-DAN line this
evening. However as a passing mid level wave/speed max crosses
to the north overnight, should see drier air filter southeast in
its wake, with the lingering mid/high cloud shield also
shifting southeast of the region. This in conjunction with high
pressure nosing in from the west should make for mainly clear
skies and comfortable temperatures overnight. Still appears
lows to settle out mostly in the 50s, except around 60
southeast, and in the 40s across the deepest mountain valleys
pending any patchy fog formation late.


Previous discussion as of 230 PM EDT Sunday...

Our region was sandwiched between a cold front near the coast of the
Carolinas, and a cold front that extended from western New York,
southwest into southern Indiana. Dew points continue to trend lower
in the wake of yesterday`s cold front. Readings in the middle 40s
were common across far western sections with the upper 50s across
the far southeast. Bands of semi-opaque cirrus continue to stream
northeast across central and eastern parts of the area. This trend
will continue into early this evening, but coverage should be on the
decrease as the evening progresses as the jet responsible shifts
eastward. Winds overnight will trend to the light or calm side. With
good radiational cooling, low temperatures around five degrees below
normal are forecast. Anticipate low to mid 50s across the mountains,
with some deeper valleys and higher elevations in the upper 40s.
Across the Piedmont mid to upper 50s are expected.

On Monday, dry weather will continue along with below normal
temperatures. Expect high temperatures to range from the low to mid
70s across the mountains with readings around 80s to the lower 80s
across the Piedmont.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM EDT Sunday...

Models in decent agreement this period. Shortwave enters the picture
late Monday night/Tuesday and is similar to what we get in winter
months. Lack of good return moisture flow ahead of this will limit
the amount of showers, as well as lack of strong sfc support.
Anticipate mainly isolated to scattered showers, maybe a storm or
two, especially in the mountains.

Dry air returns Tuesday night-Wednesday night, with sfc high
overhead. Still temps this period below normal with comfortable
dewpoints.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Sunday...

Trough lifts out and 5h ridge works in ahead of the next upstream
trough over the northern tier of the U.S. Will see return flow
around southeast high with temps/dewpoints returning to typical late
June/early July numbers. Also with differential heating and some
weak upper impulse should expect to see more storms Friday-and as
front across the midwest edges closer to the Ohio Valley, should see
a better chance into the weekend especially over the mountains.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 650 PM EDT Sunday...

VFR conditions are expected for the most of the valid TAF period
through late Monday with some increase in mid clouds on top of
scattered cumulus by Monday afternoon. The exception may be some
isolated to patchy river or valley MVFR fog very late tonight
into early Monday morning. However given current low dewpoints
over the mountains, and forecast overnight drying across the
southeast, wont include any fog mention for now.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

A weak disturbance dropping in from the northwest may bring a
period of MVFR cigs along with a few showers to the mountains
late Monday night into Tuesday. Otherwise expecting overall VFR
for Monday through Thursday with some brief late night/early
morning mountain and river valley fog possible.

On Friday, the potential will increase for some brief, localized
sub-VFR conditions mainly over the mountains as shower and
thunderstorm chances increase.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/JH
NEAR TERM...DS/JH
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...DS/JH



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