Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Seattle/Tacoma, WA

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FXUS66 KSEW 191100
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 AM PST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONT WILL BRING A LITTLE RAIN TONIGHT. A STRONGER
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND WIND ON FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL
WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL ARRIVE EVERY DAY OR TWO INTO THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK KEEPING THE WEATHER WET AT TIMES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT
INLAND TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A WEAK SHORT WAVE IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS
BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. IT LOOKS LIKE
THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT NORTH DURING THE DAY AND NOT BE OF MUCH
CONSEQUENCE.

THE OFFSHORE WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY
WILL BRING A LITTLE RAIN TO THE AREA TONIGHT...STARTING AT THE COAST
AND SOUTHWEST INTERIOR THIS EVENING...THEN ALL AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE HIGHER PASSES AND SKI AREAS COULD PICK UP A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
BY THURSDAY MORNING. EASTERLY GRADIENTS COULD RESULT IN A LITTLE
FREEZING RAIN AT SNOQUALMIE PASS AND STEVENS PASSES.

THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE AREA AND JUST A FEW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...IT LOOKS DRY FOR MOST OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH RAIN FROM THE
NEXT SYSTEM MIGHT REACH THE COAST LATE.

A VIGOROUS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND WIND TO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. WIND ADVISORY STRENGTH WINDS SEEM LIKELY AT THE COAST AND
NORTHWEST INTERIOR. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE GENEROUS BUT THE SYSTEM
IS PROGRESSIVE AND RIVER FLOODING DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A CONCERN.
SCHNEIDER

&&

.LONG TERM...A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA EVERY DAY OR
SO...KEEPING THE WEATHER RELATIVELY WET AND UNSETTLED. FOR NOW...A
SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE ON MONDAY LOOKS LIKE THE STRONGEST OF THE
BUNCH. SCHNEIDER

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE IS MOVING EAST AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SOUTHERLY
TODAY. SURFACE FLOW WILL CHANGE FROM LIGHT NORTHERLY TO MODERATE
SOUTHERLY. AIR MASS IS BECOMING MOIST AT MID AND HIGH LEVELS WITH
SOME SPRINKLES AROUND. BY 03Z OR SO THERE WILL BE A CLOUD DECK
AROUND 5K FT AND RAIN WILL DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTERWARD. SEVERAL HOURS
OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.

KSEA...DISCUSSION ABOVE APPLIES. LIGHT NORTH WIND WILL BECOME
SOUTHEAST 4-8 KT AFTER 03Z. CHB

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY THEN
MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
DEVELOP WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND
THE NORTHERN INTERIOR WATERS. THE ADVISORY STRENGTH WINDS COULD
EVENTUALLY SPREAD TO ALL AREAS.

A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVING FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY IS LIKELY
TO SOUTHERLY GALES OVER THE COAST. GALES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE
EAST ENTRANCE AND NORTHERN INTERIOR WATERS. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTAL WATERS AND WEST ENTRANCE.
     GALE WATCH COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY.

&&

$$

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