Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Seattle/Tacoma, WA

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FXUS66 KSEW 161548
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
845 AM PDT THU OCT 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPORARY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND. SEVERAL FRONTS ARE LIKELY TO AFFECT THE REGION NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THERE ARE SOME SHOWERS ON THE RADARS THIS MORNING BUT
THE AIR WILL DRY AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. THE
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME QUITE STRONG TONIGHT...AND THE WEST
ENTRANCE OF THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND TATOOSH ISLAND ESPECIALLY
OUGHT TO HAVE PRETTY STRONG EAST WINDS. LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING IT MAY BE RATHER WINDY ELSEWHERE IN THE TYPICAL AREAS WHERE
SOUTHEAST PREFRONTAL WINDS ARE STRONGEST...THAT WOULD BE THE COASTAL
WATERS...AROUND WHIDBEY ISLAND...PERHAPS THE SAN JUANS. THE FRONT
WILL SPREAD RAIN TO THE COAST LATER TONIGHT AND WILL WORK SLOWLY
INLAND FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WILL END SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG 140W SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN. MEANWHILE...LONG WAVE RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY SOMEWHAT OVER
THE INTERIOR WEST. PRESSURE FALLS OFFSHORE WITH ANOTHER INCREASINGLY
N-S ORIENTED FRONT COMBINED WITH HIGH PRES E OF THE CASCADES WILL
RESULT IN NICE OFFSHORE FLOW ON SUNDAY FOR A DRY DAY AND QUITE MILD
TEMPERATURES. MOST OF THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
NEAR 70 SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THE RAIN THREAT WITH THE NEXT SPLITTING N-S ORIENTED FRONT WILL
INCREASE ON THE COAST LATE SUN AFTERNOON OR EVENING...THEN INLAND
SUN NIGHT INTO MON. WITH RIDGING TO SOME DEGREE CONTINUING TO OUR
EAST...THE NEXT FRONT UPSTREAM WILL LIKELY SLOW ITS FORWARD PROGRESS
AND BECOME MORE N-S ORIENTED TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THROUGH THE LONG RANGE PERIOD...FORECAST MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT AND ARE CONSISTENT WITH THEIR PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS. ALBRECHT

&&

.AVIATION...MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY WILL BECOME STRONG
TONIGHT AS A WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST. A LINE OF SHOWERS
WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH WESTERN SECTIONS THIS MORNING...THEN THE
AFTERNOON WILL BE GENERALLY DRY. AIR MASS WILL BECOME STABLE THIS
EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH RAIN DEVELOPING ON THE COAST.

KSEA...CEILINGS GENERALLY 5K FT OR HIGHER. SOUTHERLY WIND 5-9 KT. CHB

&&

.MARINE...A STRONG PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE WATERS
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL CONTINUE TO
TIGHTEN OVER THE THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY WITH WINDS RAMPING UP TO
GALE FORCE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. HAVE SIMPLIFIED THE
HEADLINES TO READ JUST GALE WARNING NOW THROUGH FRIDAY. COMBINED
SEAS OF 12 TO 14 FT WILL BUILD TO OVER 15 FT TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

OVER THE INTERIOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM
ADMIRALTY INLET NORTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT. EAST OR SOUTHEAST WINDS
IN THE CENTRAL AND WEST STRAIT WILL ALSO GIVE SOLID SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS. A GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE INLAND WATERS
NORTH OF ADMIRALTY INLAND ON FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXIT FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES MOVING INLAND ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER STRONG FRONT
WILL APPROACH WASHINGTON SUNDAY. CHB

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...NONE.

PZ...GALE WARNING COAST.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRAIT...ADMIRALTY INLET...AND NORTHERN
     INLAND WATERS.
     GALE WATCH EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND THE NORTHERN
     INLAND WATERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

&&

$$

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