Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Seattle/Tacoma, WA

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573
FXUS66 KSEW 072308
AFDSEW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
330 PM PST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT DRY AND MILD WEATHER MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A
STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EAST BY WEDNESDAY OPENING THE DOOR TO MORE FRONTAL SYSTEMS BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW WILL BRING DRY
AND MILD WEATHER TO WESTERN WA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW
WILL PREVAIL FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. MAY SEE GUSTY EAST WINDS BELOW
THE CASCADE GAPS. EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FORM OVER THE NE PAC ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL
KICK THE RIDGE AXIS FARTHER INLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A FEW
DEGREES BUT STILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THE TAIL END OF A
FRONT MAY CLIP THE COAST FOR A CHANCE OF RAIN. 33

.LONG TERM...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH WESTERN WA ON
THURSDAY FOR AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER MODELS HAVE BEEN BACKING OFF ON THIS SYSTEM AND MAY
NOT SEE MUCH RAIN IN THE INTERIOR. FRIDAY IS LOOKING WETTER AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OFF THE COAST AND MOVES INLAND. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SATURDAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALOFT. WE MAY SEE A BREAK IN THE WEATHER ON
SUNDAY...THEN A WETTER PAC SYSTEM ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
33

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL STRENGTHEN
OVERNIGHT. CONTD WLY FLOW ALOFT. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN
OFFSHORE. AREAS OF LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS /DUE TO FOG/ ARE ANTICIPATED
TO DEVELOP MAINLY FROM KSHN TO KTCM SWD. AFTER 0600 UTC AND PERSIST
TIL 1800 UTC...

KSEA...NLY WINDS WILL PERSIST BUT WILL BECOME LIGHTER LATE TODAY OR
EARLY THIS EVENING. SHALLOW FOG IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY
MON. ALTHOUGH...A LAYER OF CIRRUS MAY INHIBIT FOG DEVELOPMENT LATER
TONIGHT. FOR THIS REASON...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST WAS NOT VERY
HIGH. WILL STAY WITH THE INHERITED IDEA OF SHALLOW FOG REDUCING
VSBYS TO 2SM AT THE TERMINAL EARLY MON.

&&

.MARINE... LOWER PRES OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WITH A 1040 MB HIGH E
OF THE CASCADES WILL KEEP THE FLOW EASTERLY THROUGH
MIDWEEK...ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME. A WEAK
WARM FRONT MAY CLIP THE AREA ON WED.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT TIL 6 AM MONDAY FOR THE COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO JAMES ISLAND OUT TO 10 NM AND THE
     WEST ENTRANCE TO THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

&&

$$

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