Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Seattle/Tacoma, WA
FXUS66 KSEW 161654
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
954 AM PDT Sun Oct 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Showery weather will continue through Tuesday with low
pressure aloft. A series of weather systems will bring rain at
times later next week. Some drying is likely late in the week as
high pressure builds over the area.
.SHORT TERM...An upper trough will be over the area for the next
few days for showery weather. There might be a few thunderstorms
near the coast the next couple days but the threat does not look
particularly high. The shower threat should be waning by Tuesday
as weak high pressure aloft starts to build over the area and the
air becomes more stable.
For today, breezy conditions will persist. The north interior
will be locally windy until early afternoon with a few spots
creeping into the wind advisory category. Snow levels will be
5500-6000 feet today for a little snow over the higher mountain
locations but the passes should not be affected. Schneider
.LONG TERM...Previous discussion...Confidence in this period was
not high due to the models differing in the details. At least they
are in fairly good agreement on the synoptic scale features.
Beyond Thursday, the solutions begin to diverge altogether.
Overall, it appeared that the pattern will be active and
progressive. PoPs might be too low for Friday and Saturday.
.AVIATION...Upper level trough offshore moving inland tonight.
Southwesterly flow aloft. Air mass remaining moist and somewhat
Plenty of shower activity through tonight with a chance of a
thunderstorm along the coast. Ceilings generally 4000 to 6000 feet
with brief mvfr ceilings in the heavier showers. Breezy conditions
continuing into the early evening hours.
KSEA...VFR ceilings through this evening. Southerly winds 10 to 15
.MARINE...Air mass remaining unsettled today. Gale force winds at
the east entrance to the strait with small craft advisory winds
over the remainder of the waters. Winds easing this evening over
the inland waters with small craft advisory winds continuing over
the coastal waters into Monday. Winds easing all waters on Tuesday
with a ridge of high pressure moving over the area. Next front
arrives on Wednesday for more small craft advisory winds.
The combination of low atmospheric pressure and winds will result
in a tide anomaly of about 2 feet about the predicted tide tables.
This will cause some minor tidal overflow near the time of high
tide today amount 2 pm along the central coast. Felton
.HYDROLOGY...The Skokomish river in Mason county will slowly
recede but remain above flood stage today. It should fall below
flood stage sometime on Monday.
A wet pattern in the middle of the week could drive the uniquely
flood prone Skokomish River above flood stage again. Otherwise,
river flooding is unlikely over the next 7 days. Schneider
WA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM PDT this afternoon for Central
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Monday for Coastal Waters
From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal
Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-
Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10
Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater
10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.
Small Craft Advisory for rough bar until 5 PM PDT Monday for
Grays Harbor Bar.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to midnight PDT
tonight for East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De
Gale Warning until 2 PM PDT this afternoon for East Entrance
U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Small Craft Advisory until midnight PDT tonight for Northern
Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for Central
U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-West Entrance U.S.
Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM PDT this evening for Admiralty
Inlet-Puget Sound and Hood Canal.
You can see an illustrated version of this discussion at