Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4

000
FXUS01 KWBC 280843
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
442 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VALID 12Z TUE JUL 28 2015 - 12Z THU JUL 30 2015

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...A THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING EXISTS ACROSS SECTIONS OF NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY...

...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE WEST COAST...


A STRONG UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MUCH COOLER
WEATHER TO THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES APPROXIMATELY 15 TO 25
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY. THIS GENERALLY EQUATES TO HIGHS IN THE
60S ACCOMPANIED BY COOL COMMA-HEAD PRECIPITATION. SLOW DEEPENING
OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT, THUS ENHANCED THE BROADER SCALE WIND FIELD. MEANWHILE,
THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS WILL BE THE SITE FOR ACTIVE CONVECTION WHERE A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT EXISTS FROM MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN
DOWN TO IOWA. GIVEN THE LARGE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE ADVECTING
NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO, EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION. FURTHER IN TIME, THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD FRONT
WILL WEAKEN AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS WELL INTO
ONTARIO. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY.

ADDITIONAL AREAS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER ARE OVER THE STATE OF
FLORIDA WHERE REMNANT ENERGY FROM AN UPPER LOW REMAINS IN PLACE.
THIS COUPLED WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG SEA BREEZE
INDUCED BOUNDARIES WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WEST SIDE OF FLORIDA. THROUGH THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS, WPC EXPECTS 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS
WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA. LOOKING BACK TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, A
PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE WHICH HAS MAINTAINED HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL HELP DRAW ABUNDANT MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE MOST DEFINED SURGE SHOULD OCCUR BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHERE A CONCENTRATED
AXIS OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE FROM NEW MEXICO TOWARD THE ADJACENT
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL MAY
ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING.

ELSEWHERE, A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL BRING
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. CURRENT FORECAST
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES SUGGEST READINGS ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE
RANGE ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEY LOCALES.




RUBIN-OSTER

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
$$





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.