Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 220836
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
136 AM PDT Fri Mar 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Gusty southwest winds are expected across much of the
area today with even stronger winds this weekend thanks to a storm
system that will drop in over the area. Expect an increasing chance
for showers which could bring several inches of snow to the
mountains above 7000 feet. Cooler temperatures will settle in over
the area this weekend then warm back to seasonal averages by the
middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Through Sunday night.

Broad ridge axis currently across the Great Basin/Mojave Desert will
shift east today as deep trough arrives along the PacNW/northern CA
coast. Look for another warm day, increasing south/southwest breezes
and variable mid/high clouds.

As the deep trough progresses inland this weekend it will bring
impactful weather to the area. Gusty winds will be felt by most, but
the strongest area of winds will be across Inyo, southern Nye,
Clark, and San Bernardino Counties. Potential for downslope winds in
the lee of the southern Sierra in Inyo County begins tonight with
the area of stronger winds stretching east into southern Nye and the
Spring Mountains. For the Las Vegas Valley, appears strongest winds
will hold off until after 8 am Saturday and continue through 11 pm
Saturday evening. Longest duration of advisory level winds will
occur in San Bernardino County with the wind advisory starting at 8
am Saturday and running through 11 pm Sunday evening. The
probability is 70% or greater for wind gusts greater than 47 mph in
those areas. Decided to issue a Winter Weather Advisory for the
eastern slope of the Sierra in Inyo County to account for the snow
accumulations above 7000 feet, but also strong downslope winds below
canyon openings along the lower slopes between 5000 and 7000 feet.
From today to Sunday, temperatures will cool about 10 degrees a day.
So enjoy the 80 degree weather in Las Vegas today because it will be
closer to 60 degrees Sunday. There will be a chilly start to Monday
morning as the Pahrump Valley and areas around Kingman will be
flirting with freezing temperatures.

.LONG TERM...Monday through Friday.

Model ensembles indicate a progressive pattern will result in a
weather roller coaster for the coming week across the western US as
additional large Pacific troughs line up to move inland. There are
considerable differences in timing and strength of these systems
among ensemble members, so details will become a little more clear
with time. However, a description of general expectations follows.

Monday will see a cool northwest flow over our region in the wake of
the weekend system pulling away. Limited moisture and instability
may produce a few showers mainly over south central Nevada including
northern Lincoln County while the rest of the forecast area
experiences northwest breezes and temperatures 5-7 degrees below
normal.

An induced ridge between troughs will migrate over our region
Tuesday and early Wednesday leading to a brief warmup. The next
system swings across our region late Wednesday through early
Thursday with widespread gusty winds 25 to 35 mph and chances for
showers mainly for the Southern Sierra and south central Nevada.

This will be followed by another ridge Friday ahead of what looks to
be a large closed low winding up to come inland next weekend. High
and low temperatures will only fluctuate 3-5 degrees during the week
with readings generally a few to several degrees below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Gusty winds increase out of the
southwest late this morning, lasting through the afternoon.
Confidence is high in sustained wind speeds over 10 knots and peak
gusts in excess of 20 knots. There is a 60 percent chance that wind
speeds will remain over 10 knots after sunset into the evening.
Winds will strengthen again on Saturday morning with a 70 percent
chance of gusts over 30 knots after sunrise. Mid and high clouds
stream through the area with heights at or above 15 kft.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Gusty southerly to southwesterly winds pick up at all
terminals this afternoon with peak gusts over 20 knots expected.
Wind speeds remain at 10 knots or greater overnight for most sites
except for the Colorado River Valley including KEED and KIFP.
Southerly to southwesterly winds strengthen once again on Saturday
morning with peak gusts in the 25 to 35 knot range in the Las Vegas
Valley and KDAG. Winds increase at KBIH, KEED, and KIFP later on
Saturday. Mid and high clouds stream through the area with heights
at or above 15 kft.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Pierce
LONG TERM...Adair
AVIATION...Meltzer

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