Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 270824
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
124 AM PDT Wed Mar 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions with rising temperatures
can be expected Wednesday followed by gusty south to southwest winds
Thursday through Friday as a large low pressure system moves down
the West Coast then brings widespread precipitation across the
region Saturday into early next week as it slowly moves inland.
&&

.SHORT TERM...through Thursday night.

Skies clear early this morning as ridge axis can be seen in water
vapor imagery aligned along the west coast. The ridge will quickly
progress east across the Great Basin and Mojave Desert today as our
next deep trough lies off the PacNW coast. Temperatures continue to
recover/warm and will be closer to normal today. South to southeast
breezes pickup this afternoon, strongest gusts of 20 to 30 mph will
be in central Nye, Esmeralda and Inyo Counties.

Ridgetop winds in the southern Sierra, Panamint Range and Spring
Mountains stay elevated tonight before those winds mix down into the
valleys Thursday. It will become windy, but based on tonight`s
guidance don`t have a high enough level of confidence to issue an
advisory yet. Parts of the Owens Valley susceptible to downslope
winds did capture my attention though. HiResW NMM and FV3 cross-
sections do show the potential of downslope winds materializing late
tomorrow afternoon. There is a large spread in the NBM gust
percentiles along Highway 395 near Fort Independence. Those show
there is a 50% chance for gusts around 40 mph with a 10 percent
chance gusts could touch as high as 55 mph. Will give the day shift
a chance to examine 12Z solutions before any headline decision is
made.

An atmospheric river will be weakening as it sags south just ahead
of a cold front across northern California and Nevada tonight and
Thursday. Therefore, rain and snow amounts will tail off from the
Tahoe Basin south to Inyo County. Most probable accumulation for
Aspendell is less than 1". But if the system overachieves expect 2"
or less at Aspendell and 6" or less above 9500 feet.

.LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday.

The upper level pattern will begin to amplify Friday as a strong
trough deepens off the West Coast. This trough is still poised to
bring fairly widespread wet weather to the region over the weekend
as the trough closes off and bottoms out of the coast of southern
California.  Precipitation will be on the increase in the Sierra as
early as Friday afternoon and evening, with chances increasing and
spreading east Saturday. As mentioned in the previous discussions,
the best window for widespread precipitation accumulations is in the
Saturday morning through Saturday night period as an impressive
moisture plume is pulled up from the Eastern Pacific.  Additionally,
with snow levels hovering in the 6000 foot range, some locally heavy
late season snow accumulations are looking probable in the Sierra
and  Spring Mountains, with NBM probabilities exceeding 70% for 8
inches of snow in the Lee and Kyle Canyon areas.  While the main
moisture plume will shift east Saturday, a broad upper low will
remain overhead through Monday afternoon.  The cold air aloft and
lingering moisture will keep diurnally enhanced shower activity
going into Monday evening. In addition to the widespread
precipitation chances, temperatures will trend several degrees
cooler than normal.

More stable conditions will begin to return Tuesday through there is
uncertainty into how quickly the remnant upper level low moves
eastward. As such, at least some low chances for showers will
persist into Tuesday afternoon, especially across the higher
terrain, along with continued cooler than normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...North breezes will yield
to light and variable winds early this morning. Wind speeds
gradually increase this afternoon as wind direction turns
southeasterly and eventually south-southwesterly. From 21z-00z,
there may be periods of ~10 knots from a 120-160 direction. As we
get into the late afternoon and evening hours, wind direction should
become more consistently south-southwest, holding through the
overnight hours. Wind gusts up to 25 knots are possible during this
time. FEW-SCT clouds aoa 12kft.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Light winds around the region this morning, with breezy
south (west at KDAG) winds developing this afternoon. Wind gusts of
15-25 knots expected, with breezy conditions lingering into the
overnight hours at KDAG and the Las Vegas Valley sites. VFR
conditions prevail throughout the TAF period with FEW-SCT clouds aoa
10 kft across the area.

&& &&


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Pierce
LONG TERM...Outler
AVIATION...Woods

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