Area Forecast Discussion
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FXAK67 PAJK 281334
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
534 AM AKDT Sun May 28 2017

.SHORT TERM.../Sunday through Monday/ Warm high pressure aloft
extends from SE AK south through BC and western CONUS. Jetstream
winds from the south around 70 kts are centered over 140W and aimed
over Yakutat Bay and SW Yukon Territories. A weak trough embedded
in the southerly flow aloft brought light rain to Cordova all
night but no precip observed at Yakutat. Best chance for light
rain around Yakutat will be this morning. Remainder of Panhandle
will stay dry Sunday with varying amounts of high clouds.
Temperatures today will be quite similar to those on Saturday but
will depend on timing and amount of high cloud cover and the
inland extent of any sea breeze.

One possible situation to watch for could be an increased SE wind
into Clarence Strait this afternoon. Satellite imagery shows low
marine cloudiness moving north into Queen Charlotte Sound along BC
coast. Surface pressure analysis indicates an area of high
pressure associated with that cloudiness moving north. Combined
with temperatures much warmer than normal today over the southern
inner channels, pressure gradients could jump up this afternoon
causing an increased SE wind. I adjusted speeds up some today but
still below small craft advisory criteria in Clarence Str. This
matches well with Environment Canadas forecast for E Dixon
Entrance.

For Monday the high pressure ridge aloft shifts farther east.
Cloudiness embedded in the S-SW winds aloft will also edge
farther east and cover more of the Panhandle. This will knock
daytime temps down a few degrees. Chance of rain remains quite low
Mon even around Yakutat. Forecaster confidence in short term is at
or above ave.

.LONG TERM.../Monday night through Sunday/ Upper ridge will remain
E of the area with upper low/trof sliding E into the NE PAC
through midweek, then remaining there into the weekend. Still some
model differences on individual shortwave features which makes for
a tricky forecast. Large scale pattern would keep a threat for
precip going over the area especially by midweek. Ended up
blending latest WPC guidance with previous which nudged up POPs a
bit. Also, decreased diurnal temp range somewhat (lowered maxes
and raised mins) due to expected cloud cover and potential for
precip, mainly from Wed onward. Models that came out after WPC
came in suggest an even higher threat for precip for midweek into
the weekend, so later shifts may need to bump up POPs even more.
None of the systems that will affect the area appear to be too
strong though the weekend, so would not expect more than SCA
level winds with them.

&&

.AJK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

TA/RWT

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