Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 240449
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1149 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

.AVIATION...
Clr skies overnight with winds remaining light. A cold front
will move through southeast Texas and southern Louisiana tmrw
mrng just aftr sr around 14Z to 16Z. Winds becmg N at 13 to
16 kts w/ gusts to 25 kts.

&&

K. Kuyper

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 744 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017/

AVIATION...
Clr skies as winds have lifted off the surface this eve.
VFR flight rules thru the eve and into the overnight hrs.
A strong dry cold front will move through tmrw mrng
between 14 to 16z. Winds becmg NW at 13 to 18 gusts to 25
knots.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 248 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Short Term...Tonight through Tuesday night
No major issues in the short term with reinforcing northerly flow
expected tonight. However...fire danger may be a concern for
tomorrow afternoon mainly for the coastal counties/parishes. RHs
are forecasted be below 30 percent and winds approaching 20 mph
may occur tomorrow along the I10 corridor. Confidence is low in
forecast for winds speeds reaching threshold, so later shifts will
need to monitor. Winds will diminish Tuesday night and Wednesday
and this should ease any fire weather concerns.

Long Term...Wednesday through Monday
High pressure at the surface and aloft will maintain dry weather
through at least Thursday. Models initiate return flow Thursday
night with front approaching Friday or Friday night. Despite
limited moisture, will maintain low pops for Friday through early
Saturday. Thte progs do not hint at thunder so will go with
showers for now. Temperatures should generally be below normal.
Lows may drop into the 30s over a large part of the forecast area
Saturday night.

MARINE...
Forecast generally on track with increasing northerly winds late
tonight. Therefore SCA has been issued. With models maintaining a
tight gradient through 12Z Wednesday, will therefore extend SCA
until that time. Onshore flow will return on Thursday. For now,
gradient does not appear strong for SCA. However, moderate to
strong offshore is forecasted for the weekend with SCAs likely.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  50  73  41  70 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  55  75  49  72 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  53  75  45  71 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  54  75  48  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Tuesday to 7 AM CDT Wednesday for
     GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475.

     Small Craft Exercise Caution from 3 AM CDT Tuesday through
     Wednesday morning for GMZ430-432-435.

&&

$$


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