Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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000
FXUS65 KVEF 252140
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
240 PM PDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY...WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ENDING OVERNIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES COMING DOWN ABOUT TEN DEGREES BY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REBOUND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WERE
GUSTING 40 TO 50 MPH IN MUCH OF THE ADVISORY AREA THIS AFTERNOON SO
LEFT IT IN PLACE. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE IN THE NORTHERN ZONES
EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH A LATE NIGHT PEAK POSSIBLE ON THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE SPRING MOUNTAINS BEFORE THE EVENT ENDS AROUND SUNRISE.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...THE COLD FRONT PASSED THROUGH RENO BETWEEN NOON
AND 1 PM...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING FROM 66 TO 51 IN TWO HOURS AND
WINDS GUSTING OVER 50 MPH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL WORK
INTO THE NORTHERN CWA TONIGHT BUT WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT COMES...SO
WINDS BEHIND IT SHOULD NOT BE NEARLY AS STRONG IN OUR CWA AS IN THE
RENO AREA. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS BRING A WEAK WIND SHIFT INTO LAS
VEGAS AS EARLY AS NOON SUNDAY...SPREADING DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL BE IN THE
FAVORED AREAS OF THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY ON MONDAY...BUT ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS LOOK UNLIKELY AS THE FORECAST SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS UNIMPRESSIVE /11 MB ELY-EED/ AND UPPER SUPPORT IS WEAK TO
NONEXISTENT. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE
INTERCEPTED BY THE SIERRA...LEAVING OUR AREA DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL
COME DOWN ABOUT TEN DEGREES AREAWIDE FROM TODAY TO MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD OVER THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES INCREASING SLIGHTLY EACH DAY. OUTSIDE OF SOME HIGH
CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME SKIES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR. MODELS
ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS A
TROUGH STARTS TO DIG OFF THE WEST COAST. CHANGES WILL START BEING
SEEN BY FRIDAY AS WE INCREASE THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND COOL
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY. ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING THE TROUGH MOVING INTO
CALIFORNIA SATURDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE
AREA. MOISTURE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE...BUT HOW MUCH MAKES IT
OVER THE SIERRA IS STILL IN QUESTION. HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE SOME
SHOWERS WILL AT LEAST BE POSSIBLE FOR THE SIERRA...WHITE MOUNTAINS
AND PORTIONS OF ESMERALDA COUNTY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...LIKELY REMAINING BELOW 10 KNOTS...BUT POSSIBLY STRONG
ENOUGH TO CAUSE RUNWAY CONFIGURATION ISSUES. NO OPERATIONALLY
SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO NORTHERLY SUNDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN
MOJAVE DESERT...BUT REMAIN SOUTHWEST TO WEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
MOJAVE DESERT. WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AREAWIDE ON MONDAY WITH THE
STRONGEST GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. NO
OPERATIONALLY SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER REPORTS OF WIND WILL BE
NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT. SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED SUNDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&

$$

MORGAN/GORELOW

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