Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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000
FXUS65 KVEF 292132
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
232 PM PDT MON AUG 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions and warmer temperatures are expected
across the area through Tuesday before slight chances of storms
return to eastern portions of the region Wednesday through Friday.
Temperatures should cool to near average values by the end of the
week.
&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday Night.

Tranquil conditions continue across the region this afternoon. Highs
are peaking a degree or two above normal with fairly light winds
area wide. Similar conditions are expected Tuesday with perhaps a
degree or two of warming and a slight enhancement in the winds
across Inyo, Esmeralda and Nye counties as a trough approaches the
west coast.

As the aforementioned trough pushes closer to the coast Wednesday it
will act to increase winds and pull in additional moisture from the
south. Despite models still struggling to produce much QPF over the
forecast area I did nudge precipitation chances up across southern
and eastern San Bernardino County, especially near Yucca Valley
where storms are notorious for surprise development. This is in
addition to the slight chance across the majority of Mohave County
and the mountains of Clark and Lincoln counties.

As we move into Wednesday night into Thursday morning, a shortwave
rounding the base of the trough may interact with the leading edge
of the moisture plume moving north. This could result in a few
showers (probably light showers/virga) from the Spring Mountains
north through Lincoln County and points north.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday.

The medium range models are in good agreement that a broad trough
will be centered along the West Coast Thursday, which will produce a
dry southwest flow for most of southeast California and southern
Nevada. However, the ECMWF is now supported by the GFS model
indicating the potential for moisture to be drawn up ahead of this
trough over northwest Arizona and possibly southeast Nevada. The
origin of this moisture can be seen on recent satellite loops
associated with a circulation over west central Mexico. This
circulation, or inverted trough, is forecast to lift northward and
the western fringes of the moisture may spread over Mohave County
and eastern Lincoln County Thursday before being largely pushed
eastward Friday as the aforementioned trough progresses inland. Pop
values were increased slightly over Mohave and eastern Lincoln
Counties...generally in the 15-25 percent range. Moisture spreading
into Clark County cannot be completely ruled out, but confidence is
too low to mention any weather for Clark County zones for now.

As the trough progresses inland...additional energy is forecast to
drop into its base Saturday and keep a weak mean trough over the
forecast area through Monday. This pattern will keep a dry southwest
flow over the region with a slight cooling trend and breezy
afternoons.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Conditions will be drying out and warming up through
midweek. Southerly/southwesterly breezes should kick in beginning
Tuesday, becoming slightly stronger Wednesday through Friday, as a
system approaches the area. Slight chances for storms and increased
humidities return to eastern portions of the area Wednesday through
Friday. No critical fire weather conditions are expected through
the period.
&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Light winds favoring typical diurnal
trends are expected through the period. No significant weather is
expected through Tuesday.

For the rest of southern Nevada...northwest Arizona...and southeast
California...Light winds favoring typical diurnal trends are
expected through the period. Outside of a stray thunderstorm over
the high terrain, no significant weather is expected through Tuesday.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
significant weather according to standard operating procedures.
&&

$$

Short Term/Aviation...Wolcott
Long Term.............Adair
Fire Weather..........Shafer

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