Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 030247
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
747 PM PDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER MOST OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL. MONSOON MOISTURE MAY EDGE BACK INTO NORTHWEST ARIZONA
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOHAVE COUNTY.
&&

.UPDATE...QUIET WEATHER THIS EVENING ASIDE FROM LOCALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS. NO UPDATE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
255 PM PDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
PERSIST OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT TAPPING A BIT OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE AND PULLING IT UP INTO WESTERN ARIZONA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
FOR NOW THEY ARE LIMITING THIS MOISTURE AND ACCOMPANYING INSTABILITY
TO EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY. I INCREASED POPS THERE ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE
A MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOONS. SOME AFTERNOON SOUTHERLY BREEZES CAN BE EXPECTED EACH
DAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
PREVIOUS THINKING. GFS AND ECMWF GUIDANCE IS STILL AT ODDS WITH EACH
OTHER OVER THE PLACEMENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS LEADS TO DISCREPANCIES IN THE WESTWARD EXTENT
OF MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. I DID END UP EXPANDING THUNDERSTORM PRECIP CHANCES A
BIT FURTHER WEST FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY GIVEN THE ECMWF`S
PERSISTENCE...BUT MAINLY LIMITED THE MENTIONABLE POPS TO MOHAVE
COUNTY AS WELL AS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CLARK...EASTERN SAN
BERNARDINO AND SOUTHEAST LINCOLN COUNTIES.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST MONDAY NIGHT ANY DEEP MOISTURE
WILL BE PUSHED EAST AS DRIER FLOW TAKES HOLD OF THE REGION. LEFT IN
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY TO ACCOUNT FOR
ANY LINGERING MOISTURE.

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SOUTH WINDS 10-15 KTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE
DECREASING TO ABOUT 10 KTS OR LESS AFTER 03Z. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING
EASTERLY WEDNESDAY MORNING UNDER 10 KTS...THEN SOUTH 10-15 KTS AFTER
20Z WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-20 KTS THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. LIGHTER DRAINAGE
WINDS OVERNIGHT THEN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 10-20 KTS AGAIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MORGAN
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...HARRISON
LONG TERM...WOLCOTT

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