Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 241109
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
309 AM PST Fri Feb 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Dry and relatively cool weather will persist today
and early Saturday under a northwest flow aloft. A series of
disturbances will then dive over southern Nevada and surrounding
areas late Saturday through Monday providing windy periods and the
potential for brief showers.
&&

.SHORT TERM...through Saturday night.

Area starting out with coldest morning lows of the month. Previous
low for Las Vegas this month was 42 degrees on the 1st, currently we
sit at 40 degrees. However, that is nothing. Due to the record snow
pack high in the southern Sierra its currently -17 degrees at Big
Pine Creek and 4 above zero at Bristlecone Trail SNOTEL in Lee
Canyon.

Temperatures will struggle to reach yesterdays readings then warm
slightly on Saturday.

Our attention then turns to a trough developing along the Pacific
Northwest Coast later today. Models in decent agreement dropping a
positive tilt/open trough into the area Saturday night. Unlike most
of the systems over the past two months this trough will not be
tapping into any significant source of moisture off the Pacific.
The models continue to trend drier. Hesitant to totally remove POPS
in the southern Sierra and south central Nevada at this time but did
trim/lower a bit. With a cooler/dry air mass in place snow levels
will start out low and stay low, probably somewhere between 3000-
3500 feet. Expect only a light dusting though. Belt of stronger
westerly winds will lead to breezy conditions from Barstow east to
Kingman Saturday.

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday.

What once looked like a promising period of precipitation potential
is now looking increasingly dry and cold. This evenings model
guidance continues to trend away from any substancial precipitation
and instead only offers periodic shower chances within a cold and
slightly unstable airmass.  Meteorological, we will ultimately
remain under the influence of a cold trough across the northwestern
states through Tuesday, with occasional shots of energy rotating
under it and providing periodic opportunities for light, terrain
driven showers and reinforcing shots of cool air.  This trough will
begin to push east Wednesday allowing for a period of moderating
temperatures by mid/late week.  Best shower chances (although they
are still low chances) look to be Sunday and Monday, as one
weakening shortwave trough drifts through Sunday, followed by the
leading edge of deeper troughing Monday. Maintained low PoPs in the
teens and twenties for the lower elevations, and more mid grade PoPs
in the higher terrain.  Temperatures Sun - Tues will be quite cool,
ten degrees below average or so followed by more typical early march
temperatures as we start the new month on Wednesday.
&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Light wind early today, favoring
a northeast-east direction during the late morning and afternoon. No
other operationally significant weather expected through the TAF
period.

For the rest of southern Nevada...northwest Arizona...and southeast
California...Lighter winds are expected across the region today.
Valley sites such as EED, IFP will still likely see some lingering
northerly winds, while the deserts such as DAG will still see much
lighter winds. Otherwise a dry and mostly sunny forecast with no
operationally significant weather forecast.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to
report any significant weather or impacts according to standard
operating procedures.
&&

$$

Short Term/Aviation...Pierce
Long Term...Outler


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