Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 061040 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
240 AM PST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK PACIFIC SYSTEM MAY MOVE
OVER THE GREAT BASIN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AND CENTRAL NEVADA
MOUNTAINS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

REX BLOCK PATTERN DOMINATES THE WEST COAST TODAY AS A WEAK CLOSED
LOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA AND A STRONG
BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. WHAT THIS
MEANS FOR US IS A CONTINUATION OF DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
LIKELY CREEPING A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE REGION.  THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH THE LOW OVER THE BAJA FILLING AND DRIFTING EASTWARD AND A BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXPANDING ACROSS THE WEST COAST.  THIS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE WEST COAST RIDGE
HOLDING THROUGH MONDAY THEN SHIFTING EAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF A WEAK PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING INLAND. THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS GENERAL TREND BUT NOT IN THE
STRENGTH AND SPEED OF THE APPROACHING PACIFIC SYSTEM. THE GFS
INDICATES THE WEAKEST TROUGH WITH BARELY ENOUGH MOISTURE AND FORCING
TO JUSTIFY A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA WEDNESDAY THEN A RIDGE QUICKLY DEVELOPS OVER THE
REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE ECMWF SOLUTION LINGERS THE TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A COOLING TREND AND
PROLONGED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INTO THURSDAY AND BEYOND OVER
THE GREAT BASIN. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ANY DETAILS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY BUT THE FORECAST IS BIASED A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE GFS SOLUTION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH ONLY A SLIGHT COOLING TREND AFTER WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN... WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD
DIURNAL PATTERNS THROUGH TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS
TO REMAIN AOB 8KTS UNDER CLEAR SKIES.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA... LIGHT WINDS FAVORING DIURNAL TRENDS ARE EXPECTED
OVER MOST TERMINALS. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL AFFECT
TERMINALS IN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...MAINLY FROM KIFP TO KEED...
WIND SPEEDS RANGING FROM 15-20KT RANGE WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30 KTS
AT TIMES WILL AFFECT THESE LOCATIONS FROM ROUGHLY 17Z TODAY TO 3Z
SATURDAY. CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT OVER ALL
LOCATIONS.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...OUTLER/PULLIN
LONG TERM...ADAIR

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