Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV

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FXUS65 KVEF 310946
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
246 AM PDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH WINDS
BECOMING GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A COOLING TREND BEGINS
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY AS A SERIES OF WEATHER
DISTURBANCES BRINGS COOLER AIR TO THE REGION. THERE WILL BE PERIODS
OF GUSTY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS WEEK AND EVEN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN
LINCOLN COUNTY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

AN UNSETTLED PATTERN SETS UP ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES THROUGH MUCH
OF THE THE SHORT TERM AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE WEST
AND A COUPLE OF ENERGETIC EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES PASS BY OR ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

THE FIRST WAVE REACHES THE SOUTHERN OREGON/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
LATER THIS MORNING AND THEN MOVES EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. AS IT MAKES IT`S CLOSEST APPROACH LATER
TODAY, WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND BECOME GUSTY. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE FORECAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER
THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY
LEVELS. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS REGION EFFECTIVE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE SECOND SHORTWAVE FOLLOWS ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST AND TAKES A
MORE SOUTHEAST TRAJECTORY...MOVING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO
THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA BUT THEY CURRENTLY
LOOK SUB-ADVISORY LEVEL. THIS SECOND WAVE WILL ALSO BRING MORE
MOISTURE WITH IT IN THE FORM OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. EVEN A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY
OVER NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST THURSDAY, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS
THROUGH THE AREA RESULTING IN GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER AS THE WEEK GOES ON AS HIGHS
DROP FROM NEAR 90 DEGREES TODAY IN LAS VEGAS TO NEAR 80 WEDNESDAY
AND INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S ON THURSDAY. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE MID 70S. THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WILL ALSO FEEL COOLER WITH LOWS DIPPING DOWN TO NEAR 50 BY FRIDAY
MORNING.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS FRIDAY MORNING WITH LINGERING ENERGY
FROM A SHORTWAVE EXITING TO THE EAST. THIS WILL YIELD MAINLY HIGH
CLOUDS AND WILL CAUSE GUSTY WINDS TO HANG AROUND THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN HAVING A SHORTWAVE RIDGE QUICKLY TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN OVERNIGHT FRIDAY BEFORE SOUTHWEST FLOW TAKES CONTROL
AGAIN BY SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

WHILE SOME DISCREPANCIES STILL EXIST BETWEEN MODEL
SOLUTIONS...MAINLY DEALING WITH THE FINER DETAILS OF TIMING AND
AMPLITUDE/STRENGTH...MODEL GUIDANCE AT LEAST HAS A GENERAL IDEA ON
HANDLING THIS PARTICULAR SYSTEM TONIGHT. THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF
THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE ACTUALLY HINTED AT SOME KIND OF
CONSISTENCY...AND BOTH SOLUTIONS ARE BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON
SOMEWHAT SIMILAR SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND
AMPLITUDE/STRENGTH. AT THIS TIME...BOTH MODEL SOLUTIONS DEPICT A
LESS AMPLIFIED TROUGH WITH THE LOW CENTER ITSELF MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN/NORTHWEST PLATEAU REGION SUNDAY-MONDAY...WHILE
THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED TROUGH AXIS EMITS SEVERAL ROUNDS
OF SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT.
WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKING DRY LIKE ITS PREDECESSORS...POPS ARE NOT A
GREAT CONCERN AT THIS TIME. STRONG...GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
BE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT SATURDAY AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY...WHERE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...PARTICULARLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY. MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS SYSTEM AROUND THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OR TWO OF WIND POSSIBLE BEFORE
THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.

TEMPERATURE WISE...WE WILL FINALLY FEEL AS IF WE ARE IN EARLY APRIL
RATHER THAN LATE MAY...AS TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND AVERAGE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL LIKELY BE ON
SATURDAY WHERE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS WILL HELP BUMP TEMPERATURES UP TO 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO IMMEDIATELY COOL DOWN TO AVERAGE
SUNDAY WITH THE ONSET OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS LOOK TO STAY IN
CONTROL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. THE BIG PUSH OF
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND LOOKS TO ARRIVE AROUND 20Z...WITH WINDS
INCREASING DURING THE EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON HOURS. GUSTS OF 20-30
KTS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO VARIABLE HIGH
CLOUDS TUESDAY. DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO TO STRONG
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS
GENERALLY IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KDAG WHERE
GUSTS BETWEEN 30-40 KT ARE EXPECTED. NORTHERN TAF SITES...INCLUDING
KBIH AND KVGT WILL EXPERIENCE A NORTHERLY SHIFT IN WIND AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THOSE AREAS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
RESPECTIVELY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SALMEN
LONG TERM/AVIATION...PULLIN

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