Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KBMX 300441
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1137 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAS ALMOST GONE THIS EVENING. THE
REMAINING AREA WAS SOUTHWEST OVER MARENGO COUNTY. NUMEROUS
BOUNDARIES WERE AROUND CENTRAL ALABAMA...SO CAN NOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT ANOTHER BRIEF SHOWER OR STORM IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SO
KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

PRECIPITABLE WATER WAS DOWN FROM WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS. AFTERNOON SURFACE DEW POINTS ONLY MIXED INTO THE MID
60S AT BEST AND THERE ARE A FEW LOCATIONS THAT WILL REACH THAT
TEMPERATURE FOR LOWS. WILL MENTION SOME PATCHY FOG IN SPOTS FOR
THE OCCURRENCE OF SOME GROUND FOG NEAR SUNRISE.

MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS HERE AND THERE...BUT OVERALL CHANGES WERE
RELATIVELY MINOR. UPDATE OUT.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

OVERALL RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE EAST WILL KEEP MOST OF THE AREA
DRY OVERNIGHT AND A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY SATURDAY. BEST CHANCE
FOR AN SHOWERS WOULD BE AT TCL SO INCLUDED VCSH AFTER 18Z.

CONTINUED WITH BRIEF MVFR BR AT EET...TCL...ASN AND ANB AS THESE
AREAS DID SEE SOME RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. MORE ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE
WILL BE NEARBY AT MGM AND TOI AND COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE BY
SUNRISE FOR SOME MVFR BR AS WELL. CONDITIONS IMPROVE AFTER 13Z.

16


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 243 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/

NOT AS MUCH ACTIVITY TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS A BIT
WEAKER AS DRIER AIR BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST VIA RIDGE. TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW ALSO LOOK DRIER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAYS. ISOLATED TO LOW
END SCATTERED CHANCES WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND HIGHS IN THE 80S.

BY LATE SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY...ANOTHER UPPER WAVE APPROACHES
WITH A SURFACE FRONT EASING INTO THE NORTHWEST. RAIN CHANCES
SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE ABOVE AVERAGE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF. WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THAT IS A LITTLE BIT QUESTIONABLE WITH
THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER LOW SOMEWHERE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST REGION. THE CANADIAN AND EURO ARE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH AND AND ITS NOT UNTIL AFTER THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES
ALABAMA UNTIL THE CUTOFF FORMS AND WE ARE RELATIVELY DRY. THE GFS
BREAKS IT OFF ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND KEEPS US ON
IN A VERY FAVORABLE POSITION FOR MORE RAINFALL. DECIDED TO GO A
LITTLE LOWER WITH THE POPS VERSES THE BLEND/GFS BUT NOT
COMPLETELY AS DRY AS THE EURO/CAN. HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN
THE 60S.

88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     65  85  65  82  64 /  10  30  30  60  40
ANNISTON    65  85  66  83  66 /  10  20  30  50  40
BIRMINGHAM  68  86  67  83  66 /  10  30  30  60  40
TUSCALOOSA  68  87  68  84  67 /  20  40  40  60  40
CALERA      67  86  67  84  67 /  10  30  30  60  50
AUBURN      65  85  68  84  68 /  10  10  10  40  40
MONTGOMERY  66  88  68  87  68 /  10  20  20  40  40
TROY        65  89  68  87  68 /  10  10  10  40  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.