Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 020819
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
319 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAKNESS AT 500MB OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT AND INDICATE THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA ON
THURSDAY AND COMBINE WITH A TROUGH OVER THE CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY.
EVENTUALLY THE TROUGH TO OUR EAST WILL SHIFT WESTWARD UNDER THE
ENVELOPE OF A SPRAWLING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
U.S. AND SOUTHEAST CANADA. THE WEAK BUT LARGE UPPER-LOW MAY
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS OUR FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
PERHAPS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA BEING FAVORED DUE TO HIGHER
PWAT VALUES. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE FOR THE WEEKEND
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA AS THE
UPPER-LOW SHIFTS WESTWARD. THE UPPER-LOW WILL ALSO BRING COOLER
AFTERNOON HIGHS TO THE REGION...AND DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION
MAY CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IF THE UPPER TROUGH HANGS AROUND
AS MODELS SUGGEST.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. CALM OR
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS ON WEDNESDAY FROM
THE NORTH. MVFR BR HAS ALREADY SET UP AT EET SO ADDED IN A TEMP
AFTER 10Z FOR IFR AS WELL AS ANB. OTHERWISE TEMPO FOR MVFR BR AT
TCL. DEWPOINT DEPRESSION STILL HIGH AT TOI AND MGM SO DID NOT
INCLUDE HERE BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLD VALUES. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.

87

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     89  69  89  69  90 /  10  10  10  10  20
ANNISTON    89  71  90  70  91 /  10  10  20  10  20
BIRMINGHAM  90  73  90  72  91 /  10  10  20  10  20
TUSCALOOSA  93  73  93  73  94 /  20  10  20  10  10
CALERA      90  73  89  72  91 /  10  10  20  10  20
AUBURN      90  73  89  71  90 /  20  10  30  20  30
MONTGOMERY  94  74  93  73  94 /  20  10  30  20  30
TROY        93  73  91  70  93 /  20  10  30  20  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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