Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 232143
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
443 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...
Tonight and Wednesday.

Now that our swath of heavy rain has exited across the southeast
half, that area will have a little time to recover from all of the
recent rains before the next round arrives and thus we have
cancelled the flash flood watch. Another area of scattered
showers and thunderstorms has developed across the northwest half
of the area this afternoon in response to yet another upper
shortwave. While we will be watching for any locally heavy rain,
this area has not had as much as the southeast half of the CWA and
has a little more wiggle room to work with before flash flooding
would be expected. Current thinking is that the convection
currently northwest of the I-59 corridor should be diurnally
influenced and decrease in coverage around sunset with loss of
heating with a little bit of a lull in the activity before the
next round comes into play along and ahead of the front. Another
round of convection along the front will move across Louisiana and
Mississippi this evening and move into Central Alabama during the
late night hours well after midnight. We should see activity
across our area become more widespread at this time from west to
east. While some thunderstorm activity is anticipated, severe
parameters are pointing toward the stronger activity to hold off
until the daylight hours on Wednesday morning as it moves across
the southeast half of the CWA. A few marginally strong to severe
storms will be possible along the front. The main threat will be
damaging straight line winds with the front with not enough low
level shear for there to be a significant tornado threat. During
the afternoon behind the front, we will likely see some wrap
around shower activity, but thunderstorm activity should decrease
as the atmosphere stabilizes.

08

.LONG TERM...
Thursday through Monday.

The overall CONUS trough finally lifts out of the southeast by
Thursday morning allowing for some drier air to work into the region
through Friday. After a cooler day on Thursday, Friday will warm
back up to a typical late May day with readings in the 80s areawide.
Temperatures will continue to modify and rise over the weekend with
temperatures in the mid to upper 80s with a few areas topping out in
the low 90s in the southeast.

An approaching front will move closer to the area on Saturday. So
with the increase in temperatures and increase in moisture those
summer time thunderstorms will once again develop and impact a good
portion of the area as the front tries to drape into the area over
the weekend. There is still some discrepancies with the models as
the GFS tries to clear the front on through while the Euro stalls it
out.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

Much of the heavier weather is confined to MGM/TOI through early
afternoon with isolated SHRA expected and TS potential too low to
mention. Another disturbance will move in tonight with scattered
SHRA with isolated TSRA. This activity will move across the area
into early on Wednesday with decreased coverage west to east
toward the afternoon hours. Expect CIGs to gradually improve this
afternoon outside of primarily SHRA activity followed by
thickening and lowering CIG`s overnight through Wednesday morning.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Shower and thunderstorm activity will continue tonight across
portions of Central Alabama on into Wednesday until a front moves
through the area. A few strong storms are possible Wednesday
morning across the southeast half of the area. Rain free and
cooler conditions are expected behind the front on Thursday.
Conditions will warm for Friday with rain chances returning by the
weekend. Critical fire weather are not expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     60  72  53  73  54 /  80  70  40  20   0
Anniston    62  73  53  73  54 /  80  80  40  10   0
Birmingham  62  72  54  75  57 /  80  50  40  10   0
Tuscaloosa  61  73  54  77  57 /  80  40  30  10   0
Calera      62  73  54  76  57 /  80  40  40  10   0
Auburn      64  75  55  74  57 /  60  80  30  10   0
Montgomery  65  77  56  79  58 /  60  50  20  10   0
Troy        64  76  55  79  57 /  50  60  20   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

$$

08/16/05



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