Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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000
FXUS64 KBMX 300948
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
348 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND GUSTY NORTH
WINDS WILL USHER IN MUCH COLDER AIR TODAY. SOME POST-FRONTAL LOW
CLOUDS BLANKET THE AREA...BUT THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN ERODING DURING
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND EXPECT SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY
BY LATE MORNING. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES UPPER
LOW ARE ALREADY STARTING TO SPILL EASTWARD TOWARDS ALABAMA...AND
THE CIRRUS WILL THICKEN LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY ACROSS ALABAMA.
THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY BELOW 700MB THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND THIS SHOULD HOLD THE RAIN OFF UNTIL SUNDAY. RAIN
SHOULD OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROF AXIS APPROACHES THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUNDAY
AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE THE RAIN MIXES WITH LIGHT SNOW...BUT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING...SO NO IMPACTS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY LINGER EARLY MONDAY ACROSS EAST ALABAMA...
BUT SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR. DESPITE SUNSHINE...STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. A
SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 20S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND ON
TUESDAY AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST. THE MODELS ARE STILL
STRUGGLING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW. THE
REMNANTS OF THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO ON
WEDNESDAY. THE GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS A WETTER SOLUTION
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...BUT THE ECMWF MODEL IS NOW SLOWING DOWN
THE SYSTEM AND SHOWING THE BULK OF THE RAIN AFFECTING ALABAMA ON
THURSDAY. FOR NOW WILL NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
KEEP THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
WITH THE RAIN ENDING BEFORE SUNRISE THURSDAY. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE TIME OF
PRECIPITATION.

58/ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CURRENTLY BEHIND THE FRONT AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS. EXPECT THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN TERMINALS KMGM AND KTOI OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS FOR A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF STRATUS BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH CEILINGS RIGHT AROUND 3 KFT. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE PESSIMISTIC
WITH MVFR AT ALL OF THE NORTHERN TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY SUNRISE. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE 10 KTS THROUGH 00Z.

05/MA


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     47  24  52  34  52 /   0   0   0  10  70
ANNISTON    49  26  55  37  54 /   0   0   0  10  60
BIRMINGHAM  49  27  55  39  53 /   0   0   0  10  70
TUSCALOOSA  52  27  56  41  55 /   0   0   0  20  70
CALERA      51  29  55  40  54 /   0   0   0  10  70
AUBURN      52  29  55  41  56 /   0   0   0  10  60
MONTGOMERY  56  29  59  39  58 /   0   0   0  10  60
TROY        55  28  59  37  60 /   0   0   0  10  60

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







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