National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KBMX 180507
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1207 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY IN A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAVE
PUSHED INTO GEORGIA WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FORMING ACROSS NORTHERN MS AND WESTERN TN CLOSER TO THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW. THE OVERALL MOTION OF THESE STORMS
IS TO THE NORTHEAST BUT A LINE IS TRYING TO FILL IN DOWN TOWARDS
ARKANSAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ENTER
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 1 AM WITH THE
BEST CHANCES AFTER 4 AM. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED BUT A
STRONGER STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE. LAPSE RATES LOOK TO BE NEAR
MOIST ADIABATIC AS PW VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES. UPPER
LEVEL WINDS REMAIN WEAK WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND STORMS SHOULD
LACK ORGANIZATION. STORM MOTION SHOULD BE FAST ENOUGH TO PREVENT
ANY WIDESPREAD FLOODING PROBLEMS BUT IF A STORM GOES OVER AN AREA
THAT RECEIVED AMPLE RAINFALL TODAY SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD
BE POSSIBLE.

05/MA

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

WITH THE APPROACH OF MID LEVEL ENERGY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REDEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALSO TRYING TO DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH BUT ARE
HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME BECOMING ORGANIZED. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AT SOME POINT AT ALL SITES
GIVEN CURRENT LOCATION OF ACTIVITY. NOT CONFIDENT IN HOW MUCH AREAL
COVERAGE WILL OCCUR TO INCLUDE TSRA.  NEAR TERM HI RES MODELS
CONTINUE TO HANDLE CONVECTION WELL...AND COVERAGE OVERNIGHT REMAINS
SCATTERED WITH POTENTIAL CLUSTERS OF STORMS DEVELOPING AND MOVING
EASTWARD.

WITH HIGH CLOUDS AND ELEVATED WINDS...HAVE BACKED OFF LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG OVERNIGHT. CAN NOT RULE OUT A DROP IN VIS...AND HAVE INCLUDED
MVFR CONDITIONS AT EET AND ANB FOR SEVERAL HOURS...BUT DO NOT EXPECT
WIDESPREAD VIS OR CIG REDUCTIONS.

AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO CENTRAL TENNESSEE...SURFACE WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH BY MID MORNING AND NON-CONVECTIVE WINDS
COULD BE GUSTY AT TIMES. AS THE FRONT SLOWLY SINKS INTO THE
AREA...EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. MORE EXACT TIMING OF TS WILL HAVE TO WAIT AS OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION...BOTH LOCAL AND UPSTREAM...WILL LIKELY PLAY A ROLE IN
FOCUSING CONVECTION LATER IN THE DAY. WILL INCLUDE ONLY VCTS WORDING
AT THIS TIME.

14

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 703 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW OVER NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. SEVERAL IMPULSES ARE ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN QUADRANTS OF THE CIRCULATION...WITH ONE IMPULSE CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH ALABAMA...AND ANOTHER UPSTREAM IMPULSE APPROACHING
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL ARKANSAS WILL
TRACK EAST NORTHEAST TONIGHT ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
AND WESTERN TENNESSEE. THE SURFACE LOW WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS MECHANISM
FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA
OVERNIGHT. HIGH RAIN CHANCES WILL BE NECESSARY TONIGHT AND AGAIN
TUESDAY. AS THE SURFACE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH OF ALABAMA ON
TUESDAY...A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO ALABAMA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA TUESDAY EVENING AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH OF I-20.
BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL
OVERSPREAD MOST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...AND ANY RAIN WILL BE CONFINED
TO THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE AIR MASS
WILL NOT BE ANY COOLER BEHIND FRONT...AND TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S BOTH DAYS IN THE DRY NORTHERLY
FLOW.

58/ROSE

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

DECIDED TO RAISE RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY DURING THIS PERIOD. AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER TEXAS WILL EXPAND NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...A MOIST
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL IN THE LOWER LEVELS. CENTRAL ALABAMA
WILL LIKELY BE JUST FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM THE RIDGE AXIS TO ALLOW
FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES. THE WARMEST DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACROSS WEST
ALABAMA...WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE UPPER RIDGE.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     70  84  69  89  61 /  60  80  40  10  10
ANNISTON    70  84  70  89  64 /  50  80  50  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  72  84  70  89  66 /  60  80  40  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  71  86  71  92  66 /  60  80  50  20  10
CALERA      71  84  70  89  67 /  50  80  50  20  10
AUBURN      70  84  71  89  67 /  40  60  60  20  20
MONTGOMERY  72  89  73  92  68 /  30  60  60  30  20
TROY        69  88  73  91  66 /  60  60  60  30  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$