Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
FXUS64 KBMX 300458
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1158 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016
For 06Z Aviation.
The frontal boundary has just about stalled out about halfway
through the area. So we will see the drier air in the north and
the more moist airmass in the south. Most of the rain has ended
for the night, but there still could be an isolated shower/storm
south of the front for a few more hours so left the mention of
isolated storms in the forecast for now. Otherwise forecast on
track for temperatures. Updates have been sent.
06Z TAF Discussion.
For the northern terminals, drier air has moved in behind a cold
front and VFR conditions are expected. The southern terminals (MGM/TOI)
remain near the front. A brief period of MVFR fog will be
possible around sunrise at TOI due to moisture pooling along the
front, but high clouds may be a limiting factor. Will have to
monitor the frontal position relative to MGM but currently think
vis will remain VFR there. Scattered showers/storms are expected
Thursday near MGM/TOI.
Isolated shower/storm activity will remain possible across the
south today, with drier and less humid conditions expected across
the north. Rain chances become a little better Sunday into the
beginning of next week and more diurnally influenced. No fire
weather concerns are expected at this time.
/Issued 148 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/
Boundary layer moisture quality and mid-level cooling is evidently
a bit better than expected behind a weak cold front, and showers
and storms have formed well north of what was previously expected.
POPs have been raised for the remainder of the afternoon into
the early evening. With the front expected to stall and a broad
500mb trough forecast to remain in place over the region for
Thursday, POPs have been increased a bit and expanded northwest.
Still, the best rain chances should remain south of I-85.
Rising 500mb heights should lead to a decrease in rain chances for
Friday into the weekend as a ridge builds into the region. The
southward progress of a front to our north remains questionable
for the upcoming week with model disagreement on the pattern
evolution. For this reason, SuperBlend POPs in the 35-45 percent
range seem too high and were undercut in the latest forecast.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden 64 91 64 92 69 / 10 20 10 10 10
Anniston 66 91 66 92 68 / 10 20 20 10 10
Birmingham 68 91 68 93 72 / 10 20 10 10 10
Tuscaloosa 68 92 68 94 72 / 10 20 10 10 10
Calera 68 91 68 92 71 / 10 20 20 10 10
Auburn 71 89 71 90 73 / 20 50 40 20 10
Montgomery 71 92 72 94 73 / 20 50 40 20 10
Troy 70 90 71 91 72 / 20 50 40 30 10