Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 031150
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
549 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION AND EXPANSION OF DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THIS MORNING.

POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER SCENARIO FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING STILL PRETTY MUCH IN PLAY. MAIN CHANGES ON THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE WERE TO DELAY SLIGHTLY THE ONSET OF CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN
TO FREEZING RAIN IN THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES...NARROW THE WINDOW OF
TIME THAT THE FREEZING RAIN/SLEET WAS POSSIBLE...AND REDUCE THE
AREA OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET POSSIBILITIES. THESE WERE ALL BASED ON
THE 00Z MODEL DEPICTIONS OF LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES. ALSO NOTICED
THAT THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED LOWER ON QPF/RAIN RATES ONCE THE
FRONT GETS INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA. HAVING SAID THAT IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT WHEN DEALING WITH FREEZING RAIN...EVEN A SMALL AMOUNT
CAN HAVE A RELATIVELY HIGH IMPACT WHERE IT OCCURS. ESPECIALLY IN
THIS SITUATION...WHERE THE TEMPERATURE IS FALLING RAPIDLY AS A
VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS IS ADVANCING.

STILL LOOKS LIKE THE RAIN RAPIDLY MOVES OUT THURSDAY MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE
FRONT...AND TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE AT ALL DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY.

MODELS THEN STRUGGLE TO AGREE ON WHAT HAPPENS THE END OF THE WEEK
AND OVER THE WEEKEND. 00Z GFS BROUGHT A BULGE OF RAIN BACK NORTH
INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR AREA THURSDAY/FRIDAY...WHILE THE
ECMWF KEEPS CONDITIONS DRY UNTIL NEXT WEEK. I`VE INCLUDED SOME
SMALL POPS IN THE SOUTH LATE THIS WEEK...IN THE EVENT THAT THE GFS
HAS THE RIGHT IDEA. BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS FOR DRY
WEATHER FOR NOW.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LOW CEILINGS AND POOR VISIBILITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING...WITH WIDESPREAD LIFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED IN VIS AS FOG DISSIPATES...MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. A NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT
WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS TODAY ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS.
LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY
THROUGH THE DAY. WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING HIGH...REDUCTIONS
IN VIS AND CIG ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     63  61  69  34  35 /  60  40  60 100  50
ANNISTON    68  61  69  36  37 /  50  30  50 100  60
BIRMINGHAM  70  61  71  33  36 /  50  30  60 100  50
TUSCALOOSA  74  63  73  35  36 /  40  30  50 100  50
CALERA      72  62  72  36  37 /  40  20  50 100  50
AUBURN      73  60  72  56  58 /  30  20  40  70  60
MONTGOMERY  77  60  73  47  52 /  20  20  50  80  60
TROY        77  61  73  59  61 /  20  20  40  60  60

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA.

&&

$$










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