Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KBMX 060550
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1150 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

WILL ONLY NEED TO MAKE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...DRY AND CHILLY
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

/61/


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A STRONG JET STREAM WILL SWING
OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA FROM WEST TO EAST. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE IS
LIMITED...THIS WILL ALLOW MID AND HIGH LEVEL CEILINGS TO DEVELOP.
A FEW MODELS INDICATE SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE DEVELOPING JUST
AHEAD OF THE FEATURE SATURDAY...BUT THESE CEILINGS WOULD ONLY BE
AROUND 5K FT NEAR ANB/MGM/TOI. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SLIGHTLY MORE
HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH AFTERNOON RH
VALUES REMAINING ABOVE 30 PERCENT. NO RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY. LIGHT RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH.

14

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 345 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING...AND LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION KEEPING SKIES CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TODAY. LOW LEVEL WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S...EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO FALL
INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

RIDGING QUICKLY SHIFTS DOWNSTREAM AS A TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE PLAINS...BECOMING A CLOSED LOW AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TOMORROW. DESPITE THE TROUGH...A
SIGNIFICANT LACK OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY WITH ONLY AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. BRIEF MID LEVEL RIDGING ON SUNDAY AND
CLEARING SKIES ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM SEVERAL DEGREES...WITH
MOST LOCATIONS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A SECOND
CLOSED LOW WILL DIVE OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA SUNDAY AND INTO THE
MIDWEST...AMPLIFYING THE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. A
SERIES OF IMPULSES WITHIN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SQUEEZE OUT
SOME MOISTURE BEGINNING EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. A WARM SURFACE LAYER
WILL PREVENT ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION MONDAY. AS COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY...PROFILES COOL IN THE LOWEST 1KFT AND LIGHT
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATIONS AS MOISTURE IS NOT DEEP
ENOUGH AND A DRIER LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE WILL CAUSE SOME MOISTURE
TO EVAPORATE. MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME RESOLVING
JUST HOW COLD THIS AIRMASS WILL BE. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD
RAW MODEL OUTPUT...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S ON
TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE 25-30 DEGREE RANGE.

THE CLOSED LOW AND MAIN FORCING WITHIN THE TROUGH PULL TO THE EAST
WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH WE STAY ON THE BACK OF THE TROUGH AND
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WARM ADVECTION RETURNS WEDNESDAY ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY MODERATE. HIGHS WILL BE BACK IN THE 50S
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND
LOWER 40S...WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     25  50  28  54  34 /   0   0   0   0  20
ANNISTON    27  52  29  54  36 /   0   0   0   0  10
BIRMINGHAM  29  51  31  55  37 /   0   0   0   0  10
TUSCALOOSA  27  52  30  57  36 /   0   0   0   0  10
CALERA      30  52  32  55  36 /   0   0   0   0  10
AUBURN      29  51  32  54  37 /   0   0   0   0  10
MONTGOMERY  28  56  31  56  37 /   0   0   0   0  10
TROY        28  55  31  56  37 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.