Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 280822
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
322 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...

An upper level trough will take shape across the region for the
next several days. Above average rain chances are expected across
the northwestern and northern locations of the forecast area
today, and then for the weekend period, scattered showers and
storms are expected for all of Central Alabama. The best coverage
will come during the day when instability will be greatest,
although some lingering showers will be possible through the
evening and overnight.

Temperatures will be close to normal during much of the next week.
Highs will be in the upper 80s to mid 90s range, with lows
hanging out in the low/mid 70s.

Towards the very end of the forecast, the ridge currently located
near the 4 corners area will begin to build eastward which would
lead to a slight increase in temps and decrease in overall rain
chances.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF Discussion.

The shwrs have dissipated across central Alabama. Increasing
southwest low level flow will produce decent isentropic lift
overnight and mvfr cigs already being reported at KBHM and KTCL.
The cigs will start out arnd 2000-2500 feet agl and eventually
lower to between 1000-1500 feet agl by 10z. low level ridging
across southeast Alabama will likely keep prevent lower cigs from
developing at KMGM or KTOI, but could some sct-bkn cigs arnd 3000
feet agl. A low level cyclonic circulation near the MS river will
track northeast overnight and likely bring some showers into nw
Alabama by 12z. The shwrs will quickly spread eastward between 12z
and 15z and possibly reach KTCL and KBHM. Any MVFR cigs early in
the morning will likely become vfr by 16z or 17z. Daytime heating
will result in sct tstms after 18z. Rain chances too low across
southeast Alabama to include wx at KMGM or KTOI.

58/rose


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Generally scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected over
the next several days with highs in the upper 80s and low/mid 90s.
Surface winds will be less than 10 mph and generally from the
southwest/west through the weekend, with the exception of
today when southwesterly sustained winds will be in the 10-15 mph
range. Since surface dew points are so high, critical fire weather
thresholds are not expected to be met, with no watches or warnings
anticipated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     88  72  88  71  90 /  40  30  50  30  50
Anniston    89  71  88  72  91 /  30  20  40  30  50
Birmingham  88  73  90  74  92 /  40  20  40  30  50
Tuscaloosa  90  72  92  73  93 /  40  20  40  30  50
Calera      89  73  90  73  92 /  30  20  40  30  50
Auburn      92  73  90  74  92 /  20  20  30  20  40
Montgomery  95  74  94  75  95 /  20  20  30  20  40
Troy        93  72  93  73  94 /  20  20  20  20  40

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$



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