Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 261155
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
655 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A MURKY AND MOIST OVERNIGHT MESS WILL BE PUNCTUATED BY THE NEXT
DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTIVE DAYTIME MESS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
TODAY...WITH REASONABLE EXPECTATION FOR A RETURN TO MURKY MESS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.

A MIX OF IFR AND MVFR CIGS WILL LIFT AS NEXT IMPULSE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHES. TOOK SIMILAR APPROACH TO TAFS TODAY
AS YESTERDAY...TRYING TO TIME OUT A TWO HOUR WINDOW WITH MOST
LIKELY CHANCES FOR VIS/CIG IMPACT FROM CONVECTION...SURROUNDED ON
EITHER SIDE BY TRANSITION OF AT LEAST AN HOUR OF -SHRA WITH VCTS
BASED ON SHORT TERM MODELS.

ALTHOUGH RIDGE/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WEAKENS SLIGHTLY
OVERNIGHT...STILL APPEARS TO BE FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER NIGHT
TONIGHT OF AT LEAST MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLY VIS...PARTIALLY
DEPENDENT ON PRECIP AMOUNTS FROM TODAY.

JD/02

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 340 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

THE REMNANTS OF THE MCS HAVE PUSHED EAST OF I-55 IN MISSISSIPPI.
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY AND
HAS SLOWED DOWN ITS EASTWARD MOVEMENT. DESPITE LOSING ITS
STRENGTH...THE MCS WILL STILL PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE SYSTEM WILL PUSH OUT A LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT
THAT WILL TRIGGER CONVECTION ACROSS WEST ALABAMA THIS MORNING AND
EAST ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER...WEAKER LOW LEVEL
INFLOW...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTH AND WEST ALABAMA WILL
GREATLY HINDER SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS DOWNGRADED THE SEVERE THREAT TO MARGINAL FOR TODAY. THE
BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 80S.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS OVER
SOUTH GEORGIA THAT WILL ALSO ADVECT INTO SOUTHEAST ALABAMA.
SURFACE BASED CAPES IN THE 2000-2500 J/KG RANGE ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...AND A FEW STRONGER
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

A SHORT WAVE TROF WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF ALABAMA TONIGHT AND
LIKELY KEEP THE CONVECTION GOING WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE
TROF AXIS WILL SHIFT INTO NORTH ALABAMA ON WEDNESDAY AND THE
BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-59. AN UPPER
TROF WILL DIG INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES THURSDAY AND PRODUCE
HEIGHT RISES OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
CONVECTION ON THESE DAYS WILL BE MORE DIURNAL WITH LESS AREAL
COVERAGE. THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN TROF WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AND THIS WILL BRING SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES TO CENTRAL
ALABAMA.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     81  69  81  66  82 /  80  60  70  40  40
ANNISTON    82  69  80  66  81 /  80  60  70  40  40
BIRMINGHAM  82  70  81  68  82 /  80  50  70  40  40
TUSCALOOSA  82  69  84  68  85 /  80  50  60  30  40
CALERA      81  68  81  67  82 /  80  50  70  40  50
AUBURN      82  68  80  66  81 /  80  70  70  40  60
MONTGOMERY  85  70  83  68  84 /  80  60  70  30  60
TROY        85  68  83  67  83 /  80  60  70  30  60

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR AUTAUGA-
ELMORE-LOWNDES-MONTGOMERY.

&&

$$



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