Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 271948
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
248 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE NOW MOVING THROUGH NW PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE NORTH. ANY RAIN WILL BE LIGHT AND MAY NOT EVEN MEASURE AS
RAINFALL WILL BE BRIEF. CLEARING ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT WILL
LEAD TO TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
WILL SEE NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AFTER 5
AM. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FREEZE WARNING AS ALREADY IN
PLACE...BUT ADDED IN A ROW TO THE SOUTH AND WEST IN WHICH ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BUT SOME PATCHY FROST MAY BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH ON SATURDAY AND COULD PROVIDE
RAIN TO THE AREA DURING THE DAY AND EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL HELP
RE-ENFORCE THE COLDER AIRMASS IN PLACE AND ANOTHER FREEZE WILL BE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING A TOUCH WARMER
OVER THE PAST RUNS...SO WILL STICK WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS AS
THEY ARE JUST UNDER THE MAIN CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS. WILL LIKELY
SEE ANOTHER AREA OF FROST ONCE AGAIN SO COUNTIES NOT IN THE WATCH
MAY STILL BE IN AN ADVISORY FOR A SECOND NIGHT. THE DURATION OF
THE FREEZING AND FROSTY CONDITIONS WILL BE LONGER SUNDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER FRONT WORKS INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AND THEN WILL STALL
OUT AND MEANDER AROUND FOR THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD. LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE
MONDAY AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY. A MORE POTENT COLD FRONT WILL
FINALLY CLEAR OUT THE MOIST AIRMASS ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. OVERALL THE NEXT TWO WEEKS LOOK ACTIVE...WITH A GOOD
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE PERIOD BUT WARMER TEMPERATURES.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

POST FRONTAL CLOUDS ARE FINALLY CLEARING THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON LEAVING BREEZY NW WINDS IN THEIR WAKE.
OTHERWISE...ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS ARE WORKING BACK
INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE AND SHOULD BE OF MINIMAL
IMPACT THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TIMEFRAME FOR THE
NORTHERN SITES.  SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVER TIME...AND
JUST LEFT SOME BROKEN MID CLOUDS THROUGH THE REMAINING PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     31  51  29  58  51 /  10  10  10   0  50
ANNISTON    31  51  29  59  49 /  10  10  10   0  30
BIRMINGHAM  34  49  33  62  53 /  10  20  10   0  30
TUSCALOOSA  36  51  36  65  54 /  10  20  10   0  20
CALERA      35  51  36  62  54 /  10  10  10   0  20
AUBURN      37  56  33  62  48 /  10  10  10   0  10
MONTGOMERY  37  59  37  67  52 /   0  10  10   0  10
TROY        36  58  35  66  50 /   0  10  10   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
BLOUNT-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-CLAY-CLEBURNE-ETOWAH-MARION-
RANDOLPH-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-WALKER-WINSTON.

FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR BLOUNT-CALHOUN-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-CLEBURNE-ETOWAH-RANDOLPH-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
WINSTON.

FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR BIBB-CHAMBERS-
CHILTON-COOSA-FAYETTE-JEFFERSON-LAMAR-MARION-SHELBY-TALLAPOOSA-
TUSCALOOSA-WALKER.

&&

$$



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