Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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000
FXUS64 KBMX 250932
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
432 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Overall changes to the forecast were at a minimum this package.

An area of showers and thunderstorms moved eastward past Memphis
last evening. This convection hit a brick wall and completely
dissipated before making anywhere close to Central Alabama. Early
this morning, several additional organized thunderstorm complexes
were in Oklahoma, Arkansas and Missouri headed eastward. The mid
to upper level ridge overhead will keep the these storms north of
the area.

Models remain in good agreement with the overall synoptic pattern
until this weekend where some differences start showing up. Mean
relative humidity values rarely get above 55 percent through the
holiday weekend. Several short waves in the westerlies bump the
ridge and slowly decrease heights. But Central Alabama will be
mostly dry with the best chances of any rain or thunderstorms will
be on the periphery of the area.

By Thursday and Friday, Central Alabama will become wedged
between the low out west and a developing low moving into the
southeast coast. The GFS has been the most aggressive at moving
the east low farther into Georgia while the ECMWF keeps it near
the coast. At any rate, these two features will eventually weaken
the ridge.

Low level thicknesses and 850 temps fluctuate during the period
but generally support 85 to 90 degree temperatures, possibly
higher at times. Still leaned on the higher end of the MOS
guidance suite for high temperatures. The surface pattern of a
weakening surface front over the plains and a weakening ridge of
the east remains in place the entire period.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF Discussion.

Outside of the potential for a brief period of visibility
dropping to MVFR due to BR around sunrise at TOI, VFR and
rain-free conditions will be predominant through the period.
Winds will be calm tonight, becoming southerly 5-10 kts Wednesday
afternoon.

32/Davis


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Dry conditions are expected through the week with only minimal
rain chances. Low level moisture will slowly increase through the
end of the week. There are no fire weather concerns at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     88  63  89  64  88 /  10  10  10  10  20
Anniston    88  65  89  67  86 /  10  10  10  10  20
Birmingham  90  69  90  69  88 /  10  10  10  10  20
Tuscaloosa  91  67  91  67  90 /  10  10  10  10  10
Calera      90  66  90  68  89 /  10  10  10  10  10
Auburn      89  67  87  68  87 /   0   0  10  10  10
Montgomery  92  68  91  69  90 /   0   0  10  10  10
Troy        91  66  90  67  89 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$



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