Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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990
FXUS64 KBMX 300458
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1158 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

.UPDATE...
For 06Z Aviation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

The frontal boundary has just about stalled out about halfway
through the area. So we will see the drier air in the north and
the more moist airmass in the south. Most of the rain has ended
for the night, but there still could be an isolated shower/storm
south of the front for a few more hours so left the mention of
isolated storms in the forecast for now. Otherwise forecast on
track for temperatures. Updates have been sent.

16


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF Discussion.

For the northern terminals, drier air has moved in behind a cold
front and VFR conditions are expected. The southern terminals (MGM/TOI)
remain near the front. A brief period of MVFR fog will be
possible around sunrise at TOI due to moisture pooling along the
front, but high clouds may be a limiting factor. Will have to
monitor the frontal position relative to MGM but currently think
vis will remain VFR there. Scattered showers/storms are expected
Thursday near MGM/TOI.

32/Davis

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Isolated shower/storm activity will remain possible across the
south today, with drier and less humid conditions expected across
the north. Rain chances become a little better Sunday into the
beginning of next week and more diurnally influenced. No fire
weather concerns are expected at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/Issued 148 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2016/

Boundary layer moisture quality and mid-level cooling is evidently
a bit better than expected behind a weak cold front, and showers
and storms have formed well north of what was previously expected.
POPs have been raised for the remainder of the afternoon into
the early evening. With the front expected to stall and a broad
500mb trough forecast to remain in place over the region for
Thursday, POPs have been increased a bit and expanded northwest.
Still, the best rain chances should remain south of I-85.

Rising 500mb heights should lead to a decrease in rain chances for
Friday into the weekend as a ridge builds into the region. The
southward progress of a front to our north remains questionable
for the upcoming week with model disagreement on the pattern
evolution. For this reason, SuperBlend POPs in the 35-45 percent
range seem too high and were undercut in the latest forecast.

87/Grantham

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     64  91  64  92  69 /  10  20  10  10  10
Anniston    66  91  66  92  68 /  10  20  20  10  10
Birmingham  68  91  68  93  72 /  10  20  10  10  10
Tuscaloosa  68  92  68  94  72 /  10  20  10  10  10
Calera      68  91  68  92  71 /  10  20  20  10  10
Auburn      71  89  71  90  73 /  20  50  40  20  10
Montgomery  71  92  72  94  73 /  20  50  40  20  10
Troy        70  90  71  91  72 /  20  50  40  30  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$



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