Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 170456
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1156 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS
ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST...BUT DO NOT EXPECT
THEM TO HAVE MUCH AFFECT ON COOLING TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED OVER NEW ENGLAND...WITH WEAK WEDGING AROUND THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS IS BRINGING LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS TO MUCH OF THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE WEAK LIFT
INCREASING LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SLOWLY INCREASES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A STRATUS DECK TO OUR SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST...WHICH WILL SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE TONIGHT.

ADJUSTED TEMP AND DEWPOINT TRENDS FOR CURRENT OBS...BUT LOWS IN
THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S STILL LOOK GOOD. WINDS SHOULD STAY AROUND
4-6MPH ALL NIGHT WHICH WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD FROST. BUT VERY
LOCALIZED AND SHELTERED AREAS IN THE NORTHEAST MIGHT SEE SOME LIGHT
FROST BY SUNRISE.

14


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE. LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE
WITH A LOW TO THE NORTHWEST AND A HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT IN MOISTURE AND INCREASE
ISENTROPIC LIFT. DUE TO THIS...THERE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF
MVFR CEILINGS AT KTOI AROUND 12Z. FOR NOW...HAVE JUST INCLUDED
MVFR CEILINGS AT KTOI BUT THEY COULD SNEAK UP TO KMGM AS WELL.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 12Z AND SHOULD SUBSIDE
AROUND SUNSET.

NOTE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL BE ISSUING SEASONAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR THE TALLADEGA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT (KASN) IN
TALLADEGA...ALABAMA. THE FORECASTS WILL BE ISSUED FROM APRIL 20TH
00Z THROUGH AT LEAST MAY 8TH 00Z. DUE TO THE LIMITED AVAILABILITY
OF OBSERVATIONS...KASN TAF WILL HAVE AMD NOT SKED APPENDED TO THE
END OF THE FORECAST.

05/MA

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







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