Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 111138
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
638 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNINGS SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK BOUNDARY MEANDERING OVER
THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA...ONLY EVIDENT BY THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT. DRY AIR IS FILTERING IN BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
NORTH...WITH MOISTURE STILL QUITE ABUNDANT ACROSS THE SOUTH. THIS
BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH SMALLER MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WILL PROVIDE THE
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TODAY ACROSS AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR. LIKE MANY SUMMER DAYS...CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...AND WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BEGIN BUILDING IN TODAY ACROSS THE
WEST...AND WILL OVERTAKE THE AREA BY SATURDAY. THE DRY AIR IN PLACE
WILL LEAVE LITTLE AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR ANYTHING BUT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES.
OTHERWISE...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE QUITE PLEASANT...WITH AMPLE
SUNSHINE AND HIGHS APPROACHING NORMAL. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE
SURFACE WILL ALSO ALLOW MORE MOISTURE TO FILTER IN BY
SUNDAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL CHANCES OF RAIN AND TEMPERATURES
REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S.

THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT A BIT ON MONDAY...AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO RETROGRADE TO THE WEST...AND A FAIRLY STRONG
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AS THE LOW DEEPENS IN ITS EASTWARD
PROGRESSION...WITH AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG FRONT TRAILING TO THE
SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL ENTER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION LATE
MONDAY...INTO EARLY TUESDAY...WITH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE
OVERALL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...STILL DO NOT FEEL CONFIDENT TO
PUT MENTION OF NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THIS FAR OUT.
HOWEVER...WITH MORE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...HIGH POPS MAY BE
INTRODUCED AT LATER ISSUANCES. THE FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA BY THURSDAY...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM MODERATING TOO
QUICKLY...SO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

73

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS FOG LIFTS. WEAK
FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
INITIAL TS DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...INCLUDING MGM AND TOI. DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD
INTO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT NOT EXACTLY SURE HOW MUCH
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS IT WILL MAKE. WILL NEED TO ASSESS HOW MUCH THE
AIRMASS DRIES LATER TODAY...AND POTENTIALLY ADD A MENTION OF FOG FOR
OVERNIGHT.

14


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     90  67  91  69  91 /  10  10  10  10  20
ANNISTON    89  69  91  71  92 /  10  10  10  10  20
BIRMINGHAM  91  72  93  72  93 /  10  10  10  10  20
TUSCALOOSA  92  70  95  71  94 /  10  10  10  10  20
CALERA      90  71  92  72  91 /  10  10  10  10  20
AUBURN      88  69  90  71  89 /  30  10  20  10  20
MONTGOMERY  92  71  95  72  94 /  20  20  20  10  20
TROY        91  69  92  70  92 /  30  20  30  20  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









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