Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 022355
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
655 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

DESPITE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE 1.5 INCHES AND PARCEL
BUOYANCY VALUES AROUND 2500 J/KG...VERY LITTLE VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT IN THE CUMULUS CLOUD FIELD...AND THE RADAR IS ALMOST
RAIN FREE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AT MID AFTERNOON. ANY STORMS THAT
CAN DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGH WIND GUSTS. EXPECT MOST OF THE AREA TO REMAIN
RAIN FREE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT SOME OF THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS DEVELOP A ZONAL BAND OF CONVECTION ACROSS FAR
NORTH ALABAMA BY 9PM THIS EVENING...WITH THE ACTIVITY SINKING
SOUTHWARD TO THE NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. MODELS
ALSO SHOWING A BAND OF HIGHER LOW LEVEL THETA-E AIR ADVECTING
ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP MAINTAIN
STORM INTENSITY AND CREATE A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. AT THIS
TIME IT LOOKS THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTH
ALABAMA ON FRIDAY AS DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR SPREADS EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTH ALABAMA.

FOR THE PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH SUNDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROF
WILL PIVOT SOUTHWARD AROUND THE BASE OF THE BROAD UPPER TROF OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL NUDGE THE ZONE OF DEEPER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SOUTHWARD...AND RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. BY NEXT WEEK THE MAIN TROF
WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC COAST AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES WILL SPREAD EASTWARD TOWARDS ALABAMA. THE
ECMWF MODEL SHOWS A MUCH MORE PRONOUNCED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION THAN THE GFS MODEL. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE THE TREND OF FORECASTING LOWER RAIN CHANCES AS WE HEAD
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT NOT AS DRY AS THE EURO MODEL.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT WITH SOME MVFR/IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UP SO NO VIS ISSUES. MODELS ARE PERFORMING
POORLY WITH RAINFALL SO BEING VERY BASIC WITH RAIN CHANCES HIGHEST
IN THE AFTERNOON. CURRENT PATTERN OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH
MOISTURE COULD PRODUCE CONVECTION AT ANYTIME OF THE DAY BUT
NOTHING CURRENTLY AROUND THE AREA. SURFACE WINDS 5 TO 12 KTS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST.

88

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH
ALABAMA LATER TONIGHT AND SINK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. THIS BAND OF
CONVECTION HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES
OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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