Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 280901

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
401 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

Rain chances will continue today across North and Central TX as a
weak front slides southward through the area. A gradual warming
trend and return to hot conditions can expected through mid-week
with mostly precipitation-free conditions across North and
Central TX.


.SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)...
Regional surface analysis and radar imagery this morning revealed
that outflow from Monday`s convection near the I-20/I-30 corridors
has likely stalled out near Comanche to Hamilton to Killeen line.
In addition...another outflow boundary was noted across western
Oklahoma. Finally---an ill-defined frontal boundary was noted
moving southward through portions of central KS. This boundary
will ultimately be the impetus for convection later today across
the region.

For Today---Rain chances will continue as the aforementioned
frontal boundary continues to slide southward on the eastern flank
of a mid-level ridge across the four corners region. Most model
guidance this morning suggests that a weak perturbation aloft will
accompany the surface feature and this combined with daytime
heating should set the stage for another round of showers and
thunderstorms. With the front expected to slide south of the I-20
corridor near peak heating, it`s likely that the better rain
chances will reside here. As mentioned above, the front at this
hour still remains in KS and if the speed of this boundary slows
down such that it is further north during peak heating, then
higher PoPs may have to be expanded back to the north. However,
given the general consensus amongst high resolution and coarser
models, it`s more probable that convection will be more
widespread across Central TX. In addition, the aforementioned
outflow boundary, though likely becoming diffuse through the day,
may also serve as an additional focus for the development of deep
moist convection. As a result, have nudged PoPs upward across
Central TX into the likely category.

Taking a look at forecast soundings across the area reveals that
the environment across North and Central TX will be characterized
by weak deep layer shear (< 15 knots), high PWAT values (just
under 2") and a respectable amount of CAPE (2000 J/kg). Generally
this does not favor widespread severe weather, but given the
inverted-V profile as exhibited by forecast soundings from both
the GFS and NAM, we cannot completely discount an isolated wet
microburst threat--likely generated by precipitation loading. In
addition, the weak deep layer shear will also minimize dry air
entrainment into convective cells meaning efficient rainfall
producers. Storm motions will be slow which further favors the
potential for flash flooding, especially across Central TX. The
increased cloud cover and rain should result in relatively cooler
temperatures, compared to Monday afternoon. Rain chances should
come to an end with both the loss of daytime heating and as
slightly drier air spills to the south of the Red River in the
wake of the front. With the dry air in place along the Red River,
a good summertime radiational cooling night should setup and I
have nudged temperatures downward by a few degrees here.

For Wednesday and Thursday---Low level high pressure should build
across the Ozarks resulting in drier northeast/east flow. Aloft
the ridge will continue to build with very low mid-level relative
humdities. The combination of these two should result in quiet
weather days on Wednesday and Thursday. For Thursday morning,
models continue to trend with a weaker LLJ across North and
Central TX. This should limit the ability of any potential MCS
activity to build southward, though some high level clouds due to
the prevailing flow aloft will be possible, especially along the
Red River. High temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday will climb
into the 90s across most areas.


.LONG TERM (Friday through Sunday)...

For Friday and beyond---As mentioned above, models continue to
trend drier with successive runs as it pertains to the potential
for MCS activity making it into North and Central TX. This is
likely linked to the overall magnitude of the forecast low level
wind field which appears to be weaker compared to 24 hours ago. As
a result, have removed the mention of showers/storms in the worded
forecast for Friday morning, but will still carry silent 10 PoPs
along the Red River.

The real story in the extended will be the heat as the ridge over
the four corners continues to build. 850mb temperatures will warm
into the 22 to even 23 C range, especially into the weekend. This
oftentimes corresponds to air temperatures in the upper 90s to
near 102 F. If model trends continue, it could be possible that
some parts of North and Central TX will see their first bout of
100 degree heat for the year. In addition, there will be an
increase in moisture which will make for oppressive conditions,
especially for the 4th of July weekend. Given the likelihood that
most individuals will have outdoor plans, we will likely need
headlines for the heat during this timeframe.



/ISSUED 1156 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016/
VFR through Tuesday evening with scattered daytime cu and
scattered to broken high clouds.

Nearly all of the shower/storm activity dissipated shortly after
sunset tonight. We expect similar timing and storm coverage
Tuesday afternoon. However, the best coverage of storms may be
farther south due to the presence of a weak cold front.

A light, mainly northeast to east wind will prevail at speeds
generally less than 12 knots.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    95  76  97  78  98 /  20  10  10  10  10
Waco                93  76  96  76  97 /  40  20  10  10  10
Paris               93  69  94  73  95 /  20  10  10  10  10
Denton              93  71  94  74  96 /  20  10  10  10  10
McKinney            92  73  94  72  96 /  20  10  10  10  10
Dallas              95  76  96  79  99 /  20  10  10  10  10
Terrell             93  73  94  74  96 /  20  10  10  10  10
Corsicana           94  75  95  75  97 /  40  20  10  10  10
Temple              93  75  95  75  96 /  60  20  10  10  10
Mineral Wells       93  70  94  70  97 /  30  10  10  10  10


.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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