Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 300852
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
352 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

.DISCUSSION...
A deep upper level low can be seen on IR and WV imagery lifting
northeast out of the Texas Panhandle into northwest Oklahoma. The
strength of the forcing associated with the system is displayed by
the ongoing elevated precipitation occurring well behind the
surface front. This activity is moving from west to east across
the forecast area, and is primarily stratiform rain with
occasional embedded thunderstorms. The bulk of the convection has
remained just south of the CWA where higher amounts of elevated
instability are present. Precipitation should continue to shift
east through the early morning hours, eventually exiting the
eastern-most counties by mid morning.

As the rain exits, our main concern will shift to strong gradient
winds associated with the narrow surface pressure gradient behind
yesterday`s cold front. It will be a windy day across just about
all of the region, and wind advisory criteria will likely be met
across the northwestern half of the CWA. A wind advisory will
therefore be issued for areas roughly along and northwest of a
line from Sherman to Waxahachie to Goldthwaite. Wind speeds should
become sustained near 25 MPH in the advisory area with gusts 35
to 40 MPH this afternoon. Outside of the advisory area, winds near
20 MPH with gusts around 30 MPH can be expected.

Temperatures will be well below normal today with highs ranging
from the low 60s along the Red River to the low 70s in the
Lampasas, Temple, Cameron and surrounding areas. Mostly clear
conditions and diminishing wind speeds tonight should allow just
about all locations to drop into the 40s by sunrise Monday.

A quick warm-up is expected Monday and Tuesday as the upper low
heads northeast, heights increase and return flow ensues. The
departure of the upper level low will position North and Central
Texas beneath a northwest flow aloft regime for the first half of
the work week. A shortwave trough will drop quickly southeastward
from the Pacific Northwest, reaching the Southern Plains by
Wednesday. The system will be accompanied by another cold front,
which should move southeast into our northwest counties late
Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. Moisture and instability ahead
of the front should be sufficient for scattered convection as lift
from the shortwave arrives.

There could be some strong convection as the front crosses the
Red River, but time of day may initially suppress the severe
threat. Better chances for severe storms may occur as the front
interacts with a more unstable airmass later in the day Wednesday
across the southern half of the CWA. It`s still a tad too early
to make a definite call on if severe weather will occur, but
given the time of year alone, there will probably be at least a
low-end possibility.

Precipitation should quickly push southeast of the region along
the cold front Wednesday night or early Thursday. The shortwave
trough will deepen and cut-off over the Southeastern States
during the second half of the week, which should place North and
Central Texas beneath a strengthening upper ridge. This should
result in nice weather as we head into next weekend.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1139 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017/
An upper level low will move east northeast from the Texas
Panhandle at 04z Sunday into eastern Kansas by 00z Monday. Large
scale lift associated with the feature will result in a round of
showers and thunderstorms moving across North and Central Texas
overnight. Some of these storms will have the potential to
produce some 1 inch plus hail. The showers and thunderstorms
should move to the east of the Metroplex and Waco TAF sites before
12z Sunday. Otherwise, a cold front has moved through North and
Central Texas. Expect west northwest to northwest winds at 15 to
25 knots through most of the day Sunday. Some gusts over 35 knots
are likely along and north of the I-20 corridor - including the
Metroplex TAF sites. These winds will likely cause some cross wind
issues at the Metroplex TAF sites especially from 16z Sunday
through 00z Monday. Winds speeds will decrease to 10 to 15 knots
Sunday evening.

58


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    68  49  81  59  84 /   5   0   0   0   0
Waco                71  47  82  59  86 /   5   0   0   0   0
Paris               63  46  76  55  81 /  20   0   0   0   0
Denton              65  44  79  56  83 /   5   0   0   0   0
McKinney            65  45  78  56  83 /   5   0   0   0   0
Dallas              69  51  81  60  85 /   5   0   0   0   0
Terrell             67  48  78  57  83 /  10   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           69  50  80  59  85 /   5   0   0   0   0
Temple              71  49  83  60  86 /   5   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       67  43  82  55  86 /   5   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
TXZ091>094-100>105-115>121-129>134-141>146-156-157-159.

&&

$$

82/30


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