Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
FXUS64 KFWD 310836
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
336 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016
An upper level low currently over southwest Arizona will be the
main weather maker for the the rest of the work week and through
the weekend. This system will move east into West Texas Wednesday
night and into Central Texas Thursday. All of the main models
indicate that the upper low will then meander across Central
Texas Thursday night through Saturday before eventually sinking
south. The GFS indicates that the low will sink south and then
southeast off the lower Texas coast by Monday while the ECMWF
keeps the system over South Texas through Monday Night and
opens it up to an upper level trough Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Weak Upper level ridging should start to build in from the west
during the early part of next week.
A shortwave over southwest Texas this morning will move northeast
across North and Central Texas today. Lift associated with this
system along with increasing low level moisture will result in
increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms from southwest to
northeast today, especially along and west of the I-35 corridor.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon
from the Texas Panhandle northeast across Oklahoma. This activity
will move southeast into North Texas this evening and tonight.
Some strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible mainly across
the northwestern zones. Locally heavy rain is also expected with
As the upper level low sits across Central Texas Wednesday
through Saturday, expect several rounds of showers and
thunderstorms. With increasing precipitable water values and
saturated or nearly saturated grounds from recent rainfall, the
potential for flash flooding will increase. A Flash Flood Watch
will likely be needed for parts, if not all, of North and Central
Texas for the Wednesday through Friday period. The best rain
chances should start to shift southward Saturday night and
Sunday but some low chances will continue across Central Texas
/ISSUED 1150 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/
VFR at all TAF sites through Tuesday evening with the exception of
some brief MVFR ceilings in Waco around sunrise. Since the low
level jet will be weak overnight, we don`t anticipate the low
clouds will reach the metro terminals. Tuesday will see scattered
to broken CU between 4000 and 6000 ft.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across North and
Central Texas mainly Tuesday afternoon as moisture and instability
increase ahead of an approaching upper level storm system. Will
carry VCTS in the afternoon and evening at all sites since
coverage will be scattered. The better storm chances will arrive
overnight Tuesday/Wednesday morning when a complex of storms
originating from West Texas moves across the region.
A southeast to south wind will continue generally below 12 knots.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 85 68 81 67 79 / 50 60 70 60 70
Waco 85 68 81 66 79 / 50 50 70 60 70
Paris 85 68 80 66 79 / 40 50 70 60 70
Denton 84 67 79 65 78 / 50 60 70 60 70
McKinney 85 67 79 66 79 / 40 60 70 60 70
Dallas 86 69 82 67 80 / 50 60 70 60 70
Terrell 86 68 81 67 79 / 40 50 70 60 70
Corsicana 86 70 81 68 80 / 40 40 60 60 70
Temple 84 68 80 67 78 / 50 50 70 70 70
Mineral Wells 83 66 79 65 77 / 50 60 70 60 60