Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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329
FXUS64 KFWD 310836
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
336 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.DISCUSSION...
An upper level low currently over southwest Arizona will be the
main weather maker for the the rest of the work week and through
the weekend. This system will move east into West Texas Wednesday
night and into Central Texas Thursday. All of the main models
indicate that the upper low will then meander across Central
Texas Thursday night through Saturday before eventually sinking
south. The GFS indicates that the low will sink south and then
southeast off the lower Texas coast by Monday while the ECMWF
keeps the system over South Texas through Monday Night and
opens it up to an upper level trough Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Weak Upper level ridging should start to build in from the west
during the early part of next week.

A shortwave over southwest Texas this morning will move northeast
across North and Central Texas today. Lift associated with this
system along with increasing low level moisture will result in
increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms from southwest to
northeast today, especially along and west of the I-35 corridor.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon
from the Texas Panhandle northeast across Oklahoma. This activity
will move southeast into North Texas this evening and tonight.
Some strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible mainly across
the northwestern zones. Locally heavy rain is also expected with
these storms.

As the upper level low sits across Central Texas Wednesday
through Saturday, expect several rounds of showers and
thunderstorms. With increasing precipitable water values and
saturated or nearly saturated grounds from recent rainfall, the
potential for flash flooding will increase. A Flash Flood Watch
will likely be needed for parts, if not all, of North and Central
Texas for the Wednesday through Friday period. The best rain
chances should start to shift southward Saturday night and
Sunday but some low chances will continue across Central Texas
into Monday.

58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1150 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/
VFR at all TAF sites through Tuesday evening with the exception of
some brief MVFR ceilings in Waco around sunrise. Since the low
level jet will be weak overnight, we don`t anticipate the low
clouds will reach the metro terminals. Tuesday will see scattered
to broken CU between 4000 and 6000 ft.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across North and
Central Texas mainly Tuesday afternoon as moisture and instability
increase ahead of an approaching upper level storm system. Will
carry VCTS in the afternoon and evening at all sites since
coverage will be scattered. The better storm chances will arrive
overnight Tuesday/Wednesday morning when a complex of storms
originating from West Texas moves across the region.

A southeast to south wind will continue generally below 12 knots.

79


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    85  68  81  67  79 /  50  60  70  60  70
Waco                85  68  81  66  79 /  50  50  70  60  70
Paris               85  68  80  66  79 /  40  50  70  60  70
Denton              84  67  79  65  78 /  50  60  70  60  70
McKinney            85  67  79  66  79 /  40  60  70  60  70
Dallas              86  69  82  67  80 /  50  60  70  60  70
Terrell             86  68  81  67  79 /  40  50  70  60  70
Corsicana           86  70  81  68  80 /  40  40  60  60  70
Temple              84  68  80  67  78 /  50  50  70  70  70
Mineral Wells       83  66  79  65  77 /  50  60  70  60  60

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

30/58



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