Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
FXUS64 KFWD 241053
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
553 AM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016
Mid and high clouds associated with a weak shortwave will remain
over North and Central Texas for much of the day but will begin to
scatter during the afternoon. Some scattered daytime cu are also
likely. We were concerned earlier that some MVFR ceilings would
work their way into Waco overnight but latest cloud trends
indicate that low clouds (between 2000 and 3000 ft) will be brief
and scattered at best.
A south wind will prevail through Tuesday morning at speeds
between 6 and 11 knots.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016/
Unseasonably warm and dry weather will be the story for the next
several days with it feeling more like late summer instead of mid
fall. Temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees above normal through
the week with no appreciable rainfall in sight.
Early morning water vapor depicts a shortwave situated over north
Texas that is in the process of exiting the area to the east.
Plenty of mid and high clouds associated with this feature will
stick around through the morning hours and there will continue to
be enough mid-level moisture for virga and even a few isolated
sprinkles before noon. Skies should generally have a clearing
trend later today as subsidence takes over in wake of this
shortwave. Temperatures this afternoon should be a couple degrees
warmer than Sunday owing to the lessening cloud cover.
Upper ridging will begin tonight across the southern US which will
shift the primary storm track north of the region. Another
approaching shortwave will traverse the Central Plains Tuesday
night and Wednesday inducing surface lee cyclogenesis and
strengthening low-level southerly flow. In advance of this
disturbance, abundant high clouds will overspread the our area on
Tuesday which should hold high temperatures mostly in the upper
70s and low 80s. A weak cold front that will develop with this
newly formed surface low should advance southward into
central/southern OK on Wednesday, but this frontal zone is
expected to stay north of the Red River along with any chance for
An anomalously strong upper ridge will continue building into the
southwestern US through the end of the week. While we will be
located on the eastern periphery of the ridge, it will still cause
our temperatures to be unseasonably warm and effectively eliminate
rain chances for the end of this week. Highs on Thursday and
Friday should climb into the mid to upper 80s for most locations.
Reaching 90 degrees seems unlikely, but certainly not impossible.
Record highs for DFW through the end of October range from 89 to
92 while at Waco they range from 90 to 94. At this point it
doesn`t appear they will quite be attainable. There are quite a
few differences among guidance for next weekend with the GFS
trying to send a weak front into the area with northwest flow
aloft while the ECMWF maintains a stronger ridge keeping this next
storm system`s track well to our north. Have sided with the
slightly warmer and drier ECMWF for now.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 82 65 82 66 84 / 10 5 5 5 5
Waco 83 61 83 62 85 / 10 5 5 5 5
Paris 81 58 81 60 82 / 10 5 5 5 10
Denton 81 61 80 62 83 / 10 5 5 5 5
McKinney 81 60 79 62 81 / 10 5 5 5 10
Dallas 83 65 82 66 84 / 10 5 5 5 5
Terrell 81 61 81 62 83 / 10 5 5 5 10
Corsicana 82 61 82 62 83 / 10 5 5 5 5
Temple 83 61 82 61 84 / 10 5 5 5 5
Mineral Wells 83 61 81 61 84 / 10 5 5 5 5