Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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838
FXUS64 KFWD 142046
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
246 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

.DISCUSSION...
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
TEXAS THROUGH THE EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS
OF 2 PM THE FRONT HAD ALREADY REACHED THE WESTERN ZONES BUT SHOULD
NOT MOVE FARTHER EAST UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE. MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL
REMAIN NEAR THE RED RIVER TONIGHT AND THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL
RESIDE GENERALLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AT LEAST
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS (700 TO 500 MB DELTA T ON THE ORDER OF 17
TO 19 DEGREES C). RAIN CHANCES WILL END QUICKLY MONDAY MORNING
ONCE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST AND DRIER AIR FILTERS IN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL STILL BE MILD FOR MID FEBRUARY DUE TO
ABUNDANT SUN AND ONLY WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. HIGHS MONDAY
AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND RESULT IN WARM TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE CHANCE
FOR RAIN. HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S TO
LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE EAST COAST THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY WHILE A SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY IN
RESPONSE TO A SURGE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME ZONAL LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS
THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. AS A RESULT...SOME RAIN/STORM
CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE REGION. WILL LEAVE POPS LOW FOR NOW
DUE TO TIMING UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT.

79

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1222 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016/
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...CEILINGS AND TIMING OF WIND SHIFT. THUNDER UNLIKELY.

CEILINGS ARE CLIMBING INTO THE VFR CATEGORY...WHERE THEY WILL
REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. A COLD FRONT HAS
CROSSED THE RED RIVER INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS...AND WILL REACH THE
METROPLEX DURING THE EVENING HOURS. AT THIS TIME...A STRIP OF MVFR
CEILINGS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY IS ONLY AROUND 50 MILES
WIDE. BUT AS THE FRONT LIFTS THE MORE HUMID AIR ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS...THE DECK WILL INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE...LINGERING
THROUGH MID-MORNING MONDAY. CEILINGS MAY BRIEFLY DIP BELOW 1000FT
AROUND DAYBREAK...BUT THE CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS. SKIES WILL CLEAR AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY.

A WEAK IMPULSE WILL SWING THROUGH NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT...WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS EAST TEXAS WHERE THE BEST
MOISTURE FLUX ABOVE THE FRONT WILL OCCUR. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN EAST OF METROPLEX TAF SITES. BETTER FORCING WILL ARRIVE
AFTER DAYBREAK BUT WILL BE DISPLACED EVEN FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST
AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE ARKLATEX.

25


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  53  69  46  73  46 /  30  10   0   0   0
WACO, TX              51  71  42  76  43 /  30  10   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             49  65  42  69  40 /  50  30   5   0   0
DENTON, TX            46  67  44  72  42 /  30  10   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          50  65  41  71  42 /  40  20   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            53  70  48  74  46 /  30  10   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           54  68  41  72  43 /  40  30   5   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         57  69  46  74  46 /  30  30   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            53  72  45  78  45 /  20  10   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     45  68  40  75  43 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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