Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 250342 AAB
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
942 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

.UPDATE...
All the rain has exited the region, at least for the remainder of
the night. Another round of rain is expected across mainly
Central Texas beginning Sunday morning as another series of
disturbances sweeps across the region within the southwest flow
aloft. Severe weather is not expected, and the thunderstorm
coverage will likely be isolated.

For the update, adjusted temperatures a little based on current
trends. Afternoon temperatures in our western counties warmed into
the upper 60s; higher than expected. Clear skies in this area will
allow for radiational cooling, but temperatures are currently
several degrees warmer than previously expected, and thus will
likely only fall into the mid 30s instead of lower 30s. Cloud
cover will prevail across our southeastern counties where
temperatures will likely only fall in the upper 40s and 50s.

Fog development is still uncertain, primarily due to the coverage
of high clouds continuing through the night. Breaks in the high
clouds may allow for decent radiational cooling in some areas, and
thus the fog development and density may vary considerably across
short distances. Will keep a patchy fog mention across the region
through the night and monitor trends. At this time, am not
expecting widespread dense fog, but if pockets of dense fog do
occur, it will likely be after 3-4 am.

JLDunn

&&


.AVIATION... /Issued 618 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018/
/00Z TAFs/

In the wake of the front that passed through earlier today, VFR
conditions are expected for the next several hours. However,
radiational fog will likely develop late tonight resulting in MVFR
visibilities. Confidence at this time is low in how widespread the
fog will be and how much visibility will be restricted, and
adjustments to the TAF may be needed through the night. It`s
possible some airports are impacted by fog while others are not.

Light north and northwesterly winds this evening will eventually
become southeasterly Sunday morning. Another disturbance will move
across parts of Central Texas during the day tomorrow, and this
may generate showers as far north as KACT. Hi-res guidance is in
good agreement to support a mention of VCSH at KACT from 15-21Z.
The chance of a rogue shower reaching DFW is small but not zero;
however, the potential is not enough to warrant a precipitation
mention in the DFW TAFs. Otherwise, expect a mid level cloud deck
to spread across the region during the day tomorrow.

JLDunn

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 330 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018/
/Rest Of The Weekend/

A Pacific cold front continues to surge into Central Texas and has
overtaken the earlier pre-frontal trough already this afternoon.
Meanwhile, the stubborn main mid level trough that lingered to our
west all last week has finally opened up and will continue
tracking east across the Central/Southern Plains this afternoon
and over the Mid Mississippi Valley tonight. Due to corruption of
our warm sector environment this morning from numerous showers and
cloud cover, the severe threat for our southeast half of the CWA
has been mitigated somewhat. With the storm threat continuing to
shift south and east with the cold front, we are canceling both
the flood and tornado watches this afternoon. That being said,
instability and wind shear may still yield a few strong to
marginally severe storms across our southeast counties through
nightfall, before exiting the area with the cold front toward the
Upper Texas and Southwest Louisiana coastlines.

Clearing is already occurring across the northwest half of the CWA
where drying of the atmospheric column has been quite impressive.
A weak surface high pressure ridge will settle across the area
late tonight into Sunday morning with light northeast and east
winds expected. The more substantial drying at the surface will
likely remain relegated to our far west-northwest counties
overnight with surface dew points remaining above 40 degrees
further east. The spongy and very saturated wet soils will combine
with the light winds and clearing skies for some fog development,
especially east of I-35 where surface dew points remain up and
where dew point depressions should be very low. We cannot rule out
some patchy dense areas through mid morning across the eastern
counties where winds may briefly become calm during the pre-dawn
hours Sunday. In addition, lingering forcing will remain over
Central Texas through Sunday and combined with mid level moisture
should result in high-based, light convective activity. Mid level
lapse rates will in excess of 7 deg c/km which may allow for a
few lightning strikes. Otherwise, the surface ridge will shift
over the Lower Mississippi valley with weak return flow across the
area. With little in the way of low level cold advection, highs
will recover into the 60s Sunday afternoon and would`ve even
warmed them up more if not for the lingering mid-high level
cloudiness, low convective chances, and wet soils.

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 330 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018/
/Next Week/

As the last shortwave exits the region Sunday night and early Monday,
subsidence will finally take hold across the region through Monday
night as shortwave ridging takes hold aloft. Weak surface high
pressure lay across the area and result in light winds and the
potential for more fog potential by daybreak Monday. We`ll likely
see highs rebound to between the mid 60s to lower 70s. Like
Sunday, I would`ve gone even warmer gone warmer Monday, if not
for all the water that will need to be evaporated off. The return
of south winds 10 to 15 mph Tuesday and Tuesday night will result
in return moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and a stratus intrusion
by Tuesday morning, as strong mid level energy drops south down
the U.S. West Coast and over Southern California and Nevada by
Tuesday evening. This will result in increasing southwest flow
aloft over the Texas. I expect a round of convection driven by
warm advection and isentropic upglide by Tuesday night with a
shortwave disturbance moving northeast out of Mexico. No severe
weather is expected Tuesday and Tuesday night, though a strong
elevated storm or two is possible with mid level lapse rates
steepening above an shallow elevated mixed layer (ie..capping
inversion).

Heading into Wednesday, it appears the once overly progressive GFS
has deepened and slowed down it`s solution with this system and
more in line with the Canadian and European solutions from
yesterday. A surface dryline should move into our western counties
and toward I-35 Wednesday afternoon, before being overtaken by
another Pacific surface cold front Wednesday night. Though forcing
and deep bulk shear looks more than substantial enough for strong
to severe thunderstorms, it appears both instability at the
surface and aloft are relatively meager. However, I do know that
medium range models tend to struggle with environments this far
out. For now we`ll just continue to carry good chances for showers
and thunderstorms and see how the kinematic and thermodynamic
details work themselves out before sounding the horn on any severe
weather threat. Temperatures will remain mild (or some would say
warm) the latter half of the week with a much needed drying
trend and continued mild temperatures.

05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    42  66  41  68  48 /   5  10  10   5  20
Waco                41  65  37  70  46 /  10  30  10   5  30
Paris               42  62  42  68  46 /  10   5  10   0  20
Denton              39  66  35  68  44 /   5   5  10   5  20
McKinney            38  64  39  66  44 /   5  10  10   5  20
Dallas              42  65  42  67  49 /   5  10  10   5  20
Terrell             43  64  42  68  48 /   5  30  10   5  30
Corsicana           47  65  43  68  50 /  10  30  10   5  30
Temple              45  64  41  71  49 /  10  20  10   5  30
Mineral Wells       37  67  33  70  45 /   5   5  10   0  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

82/30


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