Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 231102
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
602 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

NOT MUCH QUESTION THIS MORNING THAT CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH OCCASIONAL
LIGHT DRIZZLE...POSSIBLY AND SHOWER OR EVEN AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM FROM TIME TO TIME. WHILE CLOUD COVER WILL BE
PERSISTENT...THE OVERALL AIRMASS HAS WARMED SEVERAL DEGREES
CELSIUS FROM YESTERDAY...AND EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON TO LIKELY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S DESPITE THE CONTINUED
CLOUD COVER AND OCCASIONALLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.

FOR THIS MORNING...THE REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS IS SLOWLY APPROACHING OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. MODEL DATA
INDICATES THAT THIS CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT
REACHES THE LOCAL AREA...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TO OUR
SOUTH ADVECTING SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...LIKELY SPARKED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA AROUND 23/18Z.
SEVERAL OF THE MORE RELIABLE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN SUPPORT OF
THIS IDEA...WITH THE HRRR/RAP/WRF ALL IN FAIRLY REASONABLE
AGREEMENT WITH ACTIVITY COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS.

OVERALL...DESPITE VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY...SOME INSTABILITY IS
EVIDENT IN MODEL SOUNDINGS...AND CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM AS WELL...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS WHEN 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES ARE FAIRLY RESPECTABLE.
WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST...A MARGINALLY
STRONG STORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...PRIMARILY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM GOTHENBURG NEBRASKA TO OSBORNE
KANSAS...AND WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT CONTINUED ACTIVITY TO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE...FORCING FROM THE LLJ COULD TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT...DESPITE
BEING MORE FOCUSED TO OUR EAST. OVERALL...DESPITE THE PLETHORA OF
WEATHER TYPES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIODS...PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE
FAIRLY MODEST...WITH MOST LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE A HALF AND
INCH OR LESS OF ACCUMULATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MODELS HAVE MANY SIMILARITIES...BUT THERE ARE ALSO SOME DIFFERENCES.
MOST OF THE DIFFERENCES ARE IN TIMING...LOCATION OR WHEN
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE
DAKOTAS SUNDAY. SUNDAY MORNING THERE WILL BE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND...BUT THERE COULD BE A BREAK IN THE AFTERNOON
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS. HAVE KEPT SOME LOW POPS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MUCAPE INCREASES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER LOW OPENS AND AN OPEN WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE MUCAPE IS ABOUT 1800 J/KG
IN THE WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING MUCAPE APPROACHES 3000 J/KG IN THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER WAVE IS MOVING TO THE EAST AND
THE NEXT ONE IS STILL TO THE WEST. HAVE KEPT A FEW LOW POPS BUT THIS
MIGHT BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME DRY WEATHER.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS. SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVE FROM THE MAIN UPPER
WAVE ACROSS THE AREA. THERE ARE FAIRLY GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 559 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

GENERALLY POOR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT BOTH TERMINALS AS THERE
ARE NO INDICATIONS THAT LOW LEVEL STRATUS WILL GO ANYWHERE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN FACT...EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN NEAR LIFR
LEVELS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS LIGHT DRIZZLE AND BR
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE A BIT TO MVFR
LEVELS DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS...WITH LIGHT RAIN BECOMING
MORE WIDESPREAD AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AT
23/12Z. MAY EVEN SEE A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...BUT CONFIDENCE
OF THIS IS LOW...SO KEPT OUT OF THE TAF FOR THE TIME BEING.
OVERALL...WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY AT 10-15 KTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...ROSSI


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