Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 012107
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
407 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS INVOLVES WHETHER
OR NOT LOW-END POPS ARE WARRANTED WITHIN COUNTIES MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 TONIGHT INTO AT LEAST SOME PORTION OF SATURDAY. SOME
MODELS EVEN SUGGEST THAT LIMITED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MAY OCCUR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT GIVEN CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY HAVE HELD
OFF FOR NOW FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON POPS...AND DEFERRED TO THE
LONG TERM FORECASTER TO INTRODUCE SOME SLIGHTS IN NORTHERN
COUNTIES DURING THE SATURDAY EVENING HOURS. BACKING UP TO THE VERY
SHORT TERM PERIOD (NEXT 3-4 HOURS OR SO)...HAVE KEPT OUT ANY
FORMAL MENTION OF PRECIP CHANCES CWA-WIDE...BUT WE ARE CLOSELY
MONITORING ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE LINCOLN COUNTY AREA JUST IN
CASE A ROGUE SHOWER/NON-SEVERE STORM HAPPENS TO SLIP INTO MAINLY
THE WESTERN DAWSON THROUGH FURNAS COUNTY CORRIDOR...AND THIS
POSSIBILITY WILL LIKELY BE HANDLED WITH A SHORT TERM FORECAST
PRODUCT (NOWGID). ABOVE ALL ELSE...WHETHER OR NOT SOME PLACES DO
CATCH A SHOWER/STORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS (THE VAST MAJORITY
OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY NOT)...AM NOT ANTICIPATING ANYTHING TO BE
SEVERE...ALTHOUGH OF COURSE SMALL HAIL IS ALWAYS HARD TO
COMPLETELY RULE OUT.

STARTING WITH THE HERE AND NOW AS OF 2030Z/330 PM...VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRMS AN ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE
CWA...WITH ONLY A SMATTERING OF MAINLY FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS
FOCUSED ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN/SOUTHERN/WESTERN ZONES. AS ALREADY
MENTIONED...A FEW SHOWERS/WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY
FLIRTING VERY CLOSELY WITH THE EXTREME WESTERN CWA (MAINLY DAWSON
COUNTY)...IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY TYPICALLY SLIGHTLY-
STEEPER LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES THAN THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWA...MIXED LAYER-CAPE OF UP TO AROUND 1000 J/KG...BUT WEAK DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OF ONLY AROUND 25KT. ON THE BIGGER PICTURE
ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CONFIRMS A
CONTINUATION OF THE REMARKABLY PERSISTENT LARGE SCALE PATTERN WE
HAVE OBSERVED FOR SEVERAL DAYS...WITH A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDING
NORTH FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST REGION...AND A BROAD TROUGH
ENVELOPING MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS...EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM A
CLOSED LOW CHURNING JUST EAST OF JAMES BAY IN CANADA. IN
BETWEEN...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS OVERHEAD LOCALLY. AT THE
SURFACE...A FAIRLY LOOSELY DEFINED NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM WESTERN NEB INTO WEST-CENTRAL
KS...ESSENTIALLY SEPARATING A 5-15 MPH NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE ACROSS
THE CWA FROM A VARIABLE TO MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT FARTHER WEST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK TO END UP FROM THE MID 80S ACROSS
THE MAJORITY OF THE NEB CWA...TO THE UPPER 80S-LOW 90S IN KS ZONES
AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEB COUNTIES.

LOOKING FORWARD THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AND
BEYOND ANY VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION IN FAR WESTERN ZONES DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LARGE- SCALE SCENE...AS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS OVER THE CWA. ALTHOUGH EXPECT
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE LOCAL AREA TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH
TONIGHT...VARIOUS MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM/GFS TRACK A FAIRLY SUBTLE
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OUT OF THE WESTERN DAKOTAS REGION INTO
NORTHERN NEB AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. ALTHOUGH FORCING IS NOT
STRONG...AT LEAST WEAK-MODEST MASS CONVERGENCE/ISENTROPIC LIFT IN
THE 850-700MB LAYER IS EXPECTED TO SPARK AT LEAST ISOLATED TO
POSSIBLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/NON-SEVERE STORMS OVERNIGHT PRIMARILY
WITHIN THE NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF NEB...BUT COULD
POSSIBLY CATCH NORTHERN PARTS OF THE LOCAL AREA AS WELL. THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST INTRODUCED POPS TO PARTS OF THE NEB CWA...AND
ALTHOUGH THESE WERE LARGELY MAINTAINED THEY WERE TRIMMED BACK TO
ONLY INCLUDE PORTIONS OF COUNTIES NORTH OF STATE HIGHWAY 92...WITH
THE MAIN CHANCES OCCURRING AFTER LATE IN THE NIGHT TO TOWARD
SUNRISE. MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO LOWS WITH MOST OF THE CWA
AIMED INTO THE 57-61 RANGE.

FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS SATURDAY...UNCERTAINTY GROWS REGARDING THE
NECESSITY OF LOW-END POPS...AS MODELS SUCH AS THE 18Z NAM KEEP AT
LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR SPOTTY SHOWERS/STORMS GOING MUCH OF THE
DAY AND EXPANDING TO INCLUDE MORE THAN JUST NORTHERN
COUNTIES...WHILE OTHER MODELS SUCH AS THE GFS ARE ESSENTIALLY DRY
AREA-WIDE. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL SCENE...THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK
WAVE DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA WHILE EVEN WEAKER LITTLE
RIPPLES APPROACH THE CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTHWEST.
LEANING TOWARD THE SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY SOLUTION OF THE 12Z 4KM
WRF-NMM...LINGERED/INTRODUCED A SLIGHT POP TO MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
1/2 OF THE CWA DURING THE MORNING...BUT LEFT THE AFTERNOON DRY AT
LEAST FOR NOW...AS THE BULK OF LATE DAY CONVECTION APPEARS TO
FOCUS AT LEAST SLIGHTLY NORTH AND OR/WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA. THIS
IS NO GUARANTEE THOUGH...AND NIGHT SHIFT MAY CONSIDER ADDING SOME
SLIGHT POPS. IF DAYTIME STORMS DO FORM...AGAIN NOT EXPECTING
SEVERE ACTIVITY. AT THE SURFACE...FAIRLY LIGHT BREEZES GENERALLY
5-15 MPH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. MADE
VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGH TEMPS AS WELL...BUT GENERALLY NUDGED
DOWN A DEGREE OR SO TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE ENHANCED CLOUD COVER.
THIS RESULTS IN FAIRLY SIMILAR HIGHS TO TODAY AIMED FROM MID 80S
NORTHEAST TO RIGHT AROUND 80 SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

A COUPLE OF SEASONABLY WARM DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO START THE EXTENDED
PERIODS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
BREAKING DOWN BY MID WEEK...SIGNALING A RETURN TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY ONWARD.

TO START THE EXTENDED...EXPECT A VERY SUBTLE PERTURBATION IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO TRACK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE
SATURDAY...POSSIBLY PROVIDING THE SPARK FOR SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN
NEBRASKA. WHILE COMPUTER MODELS DIFFER A LITTLE BIT IN THE TIMING
AND LOCATION OF THIS WEAK VORT MAX/UPPER LEVEL WAVE...DO THINK
THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...AS THERE WILL BE SEVERAL HUNDRED JOULES OF
MU CAPE TO WORK AND THIS WEAK FORCING IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOCAL
AREA. FOR THE TIME BEING...KEPT THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TOMORROW EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS OUR NORTH...WHERE BEST MODEL
CONSENSUS IS JUSTIFYING SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY...WITH MOST AREAS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO SHIFT EAST AND WEAKEN
THROUGH THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...RESULTING IN A COUPLE OF DAYS OF 90+ READINGS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. WITH NO NOTABLE DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN  THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST...MAINTAINED A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED...DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY IN THE LOWER
60S...SO EXTREME HEAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THE TIME BEING.

THEREAFTER...THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN...AND FLOW ALOFT
WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT THIS LOW TO STEER A
WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...AND FOR A SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIRMASS TO FILTER IN ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE EXTENDED PERIODS. WHILE CHANCES ARE STILL ON THE LOW SIDE...
BETWEEN 30 AND 40 PERCENT FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
TIME PERIOD...DO EXPECT MORE ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IN THIS PATTERN...WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SEEING SOME ACTIVITY OVER THE 36 HOUR TIME
PERIOD.

THIS MORE ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE JUST BEYOND THE
CURRENT SCOPE OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST...WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH IN VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH ONLY SOME INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A POSSIBLE MID
LEVEL CEILING MAINLY DURING THE FINAL 6 HOURS OF THE PERIOD. SOME
MODELS ALSO SUGGEST SOME LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR A PASSING
SHOWER/WEAK THUNDERSTORM LATE IN THE PERIOD AS WELL...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT/COVERAGE REMAINS TOO LOW TO EVEN JUSTIFY
A VICINITY SHOWER (VCSH) MENTION AT THIS JUNCTURE.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE WINDS SHOULD NOT BE A MAJOR ISSUE AS
SUSTAINED NORTHEASTERLY SPEEDS OF GENERALLY 10-12KT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS TRANSITION TO LIGHT/VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT BEFORE BECOMING SOMEWHAT MORE ESTABLISHED FROM THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH



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