Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 230424
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1024 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHED THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY AND IS
DROPPING ONTO THE PLAINS THIS EVENING. THE STORM ENVIRONMENT
CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE NOSE OF THE JET PUSHED
EAST OF THE AREA. SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ARE OROGRAPHICALLY
GENERATED BUT NOT ABLE TO SUSTAIN FOR LONG OVER THE VALLEYS.
THROUGH THIS EVENING WEAK ENERGY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN MTNS WILL
KEEP ISOLATED STORMS GOING THROUGH THE EVENING AND PERHAPS
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT A QUIET NIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
UNDER CLEARING SKIES. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT MAINLY
IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE DEWPOINTS REMAIN
HIGH.

OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON TUESDAY
FOR REBOUNDING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL. WINDS
WILL BE MOSTLY TERRAIN DRIVEN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE PROGRESSES OVERHEAD FOR CONTINUED DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS. THURSDAY THE RIDGE BECOMES POSITIVELY TILTED AS THE
NEXT LARGE TROUGH DIGS DOWN THE WEST COAST. A BACKDOOR FRONT
BRINGS A WEAK SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY FOR A MENTION OF AFTERNOON STORMS IN THE
PAGOSA-LAKE CITY AREA. FRIDAY THE RIDGE GETS UNDERCUT AND BEGINS
TO LIFT TO THE NE AS TROUGH DIGS ALONG THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PROGRESSION OF
THE TROUGH INLAND OVER THE WEEKEND. BUT TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN
WITH THE GFS FASTER AND EC SLOWER. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE
KEPT JUST A LOW MENTION OF POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1024 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT TAF SITES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MODELS INDICATED A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT OTHER THAN GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS...IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...JOE/AS
AVIATION...NL



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