Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 242155

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GRAND JUNCTION CO
255 PM MST Fri Nov 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 255 PM MST Fri Nov 24 2017

A weak disturbance passing through northcentral Colorado today
will bring some cloud cover, a few flurries and even a few strikes
of lightning before conditions quickly dry by midnight. Cooler air
aloft will bring temperatures in the northcentral mountains down
compared to this morning, while cloud cover across the valleys
should keep temperatures in the Hayden to Steamboat corridor
fairly similar to this morning. Breezy northwest flow aloft due to
a 100+ kt jet overhead will keep conditions breezy in the high
country of NE Utah through early Saturday morning, and into the
mid afternoon hours across western Colorado. Winds will subside
west to east throughout the day Saturday as the ULJ pushes
eastward, and temperatures will quickly rebound across the north
to well above normal again. Temperatures elsewhere will remain 10
to 20 degrees above normal for this time of year over the next few

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 255 PM MST Fri Nov 24 2017

High pressure brings clear skies back to eastern UT and western CO
on Sunday before forecast models promise a change in the pattern.
Better consistency is developing in the models on a high
amplitude trough moving eastward onto the western US coast Sunday
night. A closed low is anticipated to reach the Four Corners
Monday night, and from there the storm track diverges in the
forecast models. The GFS takes the closed low into northern NM by
Tuesday, but the EC shifts the closed low into the central CO
mountains. Without a resolve in the storm track, confidence is low
on the impacts on Tuesday with this system. The core of this
system at 700mb is progged to be around -2C or -3C, which normally
translates to snow level at about 7500 feet. Wherever the closed
low does track, convection associated with dynamic lifting should
push the snow level lower than normally expected in stronger
showers. Past Tuesday, models diverge rapidly but there is some
indication of another quick weather system dropping down from the
northwest mid week. Temperatures will drop to more seasonable
values by the middle of next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1023 AM MST Fri Nov 24 2017

Mid and high level clouds will continue to stream across E.Utah
and W.Colorado through the afternoon with little to no impact to
area TAFs. Some upvalley winds could get breezy from KRIL to KEGE
with gusts aoa 25 mph for several hours. Clearing expected through
the overnight hours with VFR holding strong at all TAF sites.




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