Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 250404
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1004 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1004 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE WOUND DOWN ACROSS MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. HOWEVER THERE REMAINS A FEW AREAS
OF INTEREST. THE FIRST IS A BROAD BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE STRETCHED FROM AROUND MONTICELLO EASTWARD
BEYOND SILVERTON FOR THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH SOME
DEVELOPMENT SOUTH TO THE NM BORDER. THIS SEEMS TO BE ASSOCIATED
WITH A DISTURBANCE THAT HAS MOVED UP INTO THE FOUR CORNERS FROM
ARIZONA THIS EVENING. OF NOTE WITH THIS BAND IS THE RELATIVELY
STEADY RAIN IN THE TELLURIDE AREA. HOWEVER SO FAR NO PROBLEMS HAVE
BEEN REPORTED...EVEN IN THE FLASHY AREA NEAR SAWPIT AND
PLACERVILLE. THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS SEEM TO HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE
SOUTH OF TELLURIDE FOR NOW...WHICH IS NOT AS VULNERABLE. WILL KEEP
AN EYE OUT ON THIS AREA. EXPECT THESE STORMS TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN...BUT EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO PERSIST INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

THE OTHER AREA IS IN NORTHWEST COLORADO WHERE ANOTHER LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE TRACKED ACROSS MAINLY RIO BLANCO COUNTY. AT 930
PM MDT THE LINE HAD MOVED OVER THE FLATTOPS INTO GARFIELD COUNTY.
THESE STORMS WILL MOVE INTO EAGLE COUNTY SOON...THEN BY LATE THIS
EVENING SHOULD BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER THEY MAY
IMPACT I-70 IN FAR EASTERN GARFIELD AND EAGLE COUNTY BEFORE THEY
ARE EAST OF THE DIVIDE.

THERE IS ONE OTHER STORM OF NOTE THAT WILL PASS OVER VERNAL BY
AROUND 1030 PM. THIS ONE IS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THAT LOOKS
LIKE IT MAY HOLD TOGETHER AS IT TRACKS ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO
LATE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS STORM IS MOVING EASTWARD
AT 25-30 KTS AND SUSPECT IT WILL PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS. WILL
WATCH THIS STORM IN CASE ITS TRAJECTORY TAKES IT NEAR THE ALKALI
FLATS FIRE NORTHWEST OF CRAIG.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

CURRENT IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS OUR FORECAST AREA UNDER A
MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME TODAY. A COUPLE OF H5 VORT MAX AREAS
ENTERING SOUTHEAST UTAH WHICH ARE HELPING TO KEEP THE SAN JUANS
BUSY THIS EVENING. FROM I-70 AND SOUTH...THE BIGGEST THREAT SO FAR
SEEMS TO BE HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL LOCALIZED FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES. NORTH OF I-70 WE HAD A 50 MPH TSTORM GUST RECORDED AT
THE KCAG ASOS...SO WINDS SEEM TO BE A FACTOR UP NORTH AS WELL AS
HEAVY RAIN...THOUGH NO IMPACTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED DUE TO HEAVY
RAIN NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY YET. THE POTENTIAL IS STILL
THERE THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY WITH A LINE OF STORMS WHICH HAS
DEVELOPED FROM VERNAL SOUTHWEST TO GOBLIN VALLEY UTAH.

A DEEPER PLUME OF MOISTURE AND ENHANCED ACTIVITY IS OVER
NORTHCENTRAL ARIZONA AND HEADED THIS WAY. LOOKS LIKE THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL NOT REACH SOUTHEASTERN UTAH UNTIL ABOUT
9PM...WHICH WILL TRANSLATE INTO NOCTURNAL SHOWERS TONIGHT ACROSS
THE SOUTH.

EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THOUGH
THE DIRECTION OF MOVEMENT WILL SHIFT TO A WEST TO EAST
TRAJECTORY. CONVECTIVE INDICES LOOK SIMILAR TO THIS
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

MOISTURE WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY OVER THE REGION SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO FORM AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS
THAN THE PREVIOUS DAYS. THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY AGAIN STARTING
SATURDAY WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING TO THE WEST OVER UT. MOISTURE
INCREASES AGAIN ON MONDAY. REMNANTS FROM A EASTERLY WAVE THAT ARE
FORECAST TO ROTATE AROUND THE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER EASTERN UT AND
WESTERN CO AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE RIDGE REMAINS DOMINATE WITH THE AXIS OVER UT THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE ALTHOUGH NOT DIRECTLY WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK INTO EASTERN UT AND WESTERN CO. MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPER
FARTHER SOUTH. EXPECT AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION EACH DAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1004 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
-SHRA/-TSRA WILL PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 09Z IN THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA AND THE WESTERN SAN JUANS. ALSO A FEW STORMS PERSIST
IN THE NORTHERN PORTION...THESE STORMS WILL EITHER MOVE EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT OR ARE ISOLATED IN NATURE AND
SHOULD NOT AFFECT AIR OPERATIONS. THEN AFTER THE TYPICAL EARLY
MORNING LULL...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AROUND 18Z FRI AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 353 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

WINDS AND RH VALUES MAY BECOME NEAR CRITICAL FOR A FEW HOURS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LITTLE SNAKE FORECAST AREA OF NORTHWESTERN
COLORADO. AN UPPER LOW WILL TRACK OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
FRIDAY AND TIGHTEN THE UPPER GRADIENT AND BRING DRIER AIR OVER
NORTHWESTERN COLORADO FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND WINDS WILL RELAX AGAIN SATURDAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...EH
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...EH
FIRE WEATHER...AS



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