Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 020552
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1152 PM MDT MON JUN 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT MON JUN 1 2015

SUNDAY WAS THE WARMEST DAY OF 2015 SO FAR AND TODAY IS A FEW
DEGREES WARMER. WITH THIS WARM AIR MASS WE HAVE HELD ONTO
RESIDUAL MOISTURE. OUR MORNING SOUNDING MEASURED 0.67 INCHES OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER WHICH IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE. THE
HEATING AND MOISTURE WILL COMBINE FOR SCT MTN STORMS TODAY AND
ISOLATED CHANCES OVER THE VALLEYS. DRIER AIR WILL WORK THROUGH SE
UTAH AND FAR SW COLORADO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON LIMITING SHOWERS
AND STORMS THERE. DYNAMICAL FORCING IS POOR STORM COVERAGE SHOULD
DIMINISH BY SUNSET...THOUGH BOUNDARY INTERACTION COULD KEEP SOME
STORMS GOING TO MIDNIGHT MAINLY IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. DRIER AIR SPREADS OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE PREVALENT ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AS THE
REGION REMAINS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. DRIER AIR SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IS HEADED THIS WAY AND WILL HELP TO DROP PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES TO NEAR ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH BY TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL KEEP ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS VERY
MINIMAL AND PRODUCING ONLY WIND AND POTENTIALLY A SPRINKLE AT BEST.
NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT MON JUN 1 2015

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK WHEN A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER CALIFORNIA AND
WESTERN NEVADA. SEEING SOME CHANGES IN THE 12Z MODELS TODAY AS
COMPARED TO PAST MODEL RUNS WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
NOW TRACKING FURTHER SOUTHWEST OFF OF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA BY
MID-AFTERNOON FRIDAY. THAT BEING SAID...WITH THIS SLIGHTLY
DIFFERENT TRACK THE EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO REGION WOULD
STILL EXPECT TO SEE SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASING MOISTURE AND NEAR
RECORD PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BY FRIDAY NEAR ONE INCH DUE TO
THE REMNANTS OF TWO TROPICAL SYSTEMS ENTRAINING MOISTURE INTO THE
DOMINANT SOUTHWEST FLOW. LONG RANGE MODELS CONSISTENT ON
CONTINUING THIS WET PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EFFICIENT
HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY THEN DROP TO NEAR NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND WITH
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM MDT MON JUN 1 2015

VFR FOR ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. STABLE REGIME
WITH NO THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE/JAM
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...PF



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