Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KGYX 071457 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1057 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID DAY IS IN STORE FOR
TODAY. A SLOWLY APPROACHING FRONT WILL ALLOW SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO
TRANSPORT THE THE WARMTH AND MOISTURE INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
TOMORROW. EXPECT READINGS TO CLIMB TO NEAR 80 FOR MOST INTERIOR
LOCATIONS...WITH SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE PUSHING THE MID 80S. THAT
AFTERNOON HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE.

THE HUMIDITY WILL KEEP THINGS MILD OVERNIGHT...WITH READINGS ONLY
FALLING INTO THE MID 60S. THE FRONT WILL EDGE EVEN CLOSER ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT ALLOW TEMPERATURES ONCE MORE TO CLIMB INTO THE 80S.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD LATE IN
THE DAY...AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED POPS AND CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR LATER
ARRIVAL FOR RAIN. MOST OF SOUTHERN NH IS ALREADY OVERCAST WHILE
NORTHERN NH IS CLEAR. MAINE IS UNDER MIXED SKIES. A WARM FRONT WAS
LOCATED TO THE SW WHERE MORE DENSE CLOUD COVER WAS NOTED. SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED OVER NY STATE... VT... AND MASSACHUSETTS AND ARE
SLOWLY MOVING NE. DEW POINTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S
IN MOST CASES.

&&

PREV DISC...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WERE ALLOWING
PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WARM
AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR WILL BE TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD INTO THE
AREA TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. CLOUDS
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL
GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH AND EAST ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACH TWO
INCHES...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY CONTAINING GUSTY WINDS.
HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 80F...BUT A BIT
COOLER AT THE COAST IN ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS SUGGEST A BRIEF LULL IN THE CONVECTION EARLY TONIGHT AS
THE INITIAL ROUND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION EXITS TO OUR
NORTH AND EAST...THEN THE SECOND ROUND ARRIVES AFTER MIDNIGHT
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WITH INCREASING POPS THROUGH DAWN.
CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A HUMID NIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT PRESSES SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST WITH ANY
LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE FRONT AND UPPER SUPPORT
SLIPS OFFSHORE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
LOWER 80S FOR THE REMAINDER...WITH DRIER AND LESS HUMID AIR
GRADUALLY SPREADING SOUTHEAST TO THE COAST IN DEVELOPING POST
FRONTAL NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS LOOKING QUIET THIS MORNING. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT FLOW ALOFT WILL TEND TOWARDS
W OR WNW. WHILE THIS MORE ZONAL FLOW WILL KEEP DISTURBANCES MOVING
TOWARDS THE AREA...THE TENDENCY WILL BE FOR WEAKER AND MORE
MOISTURE STARVED SYSTEMS. AFTER FRONT PUSHES S OF THE AREA
THU...THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY UNTIL NEXT S/WV TROF ARRIVES OVER THE
WEEKEND. HARD TO REALLY GO MORE THAN SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS AT
THIS POINT HOWEVER.

ZONAL FLOW WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPS MORE CONSISTENT ACROSS THE AREA.
WITHOUT ANY MAJOR AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW...TEMPS WILL TREND
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...SCT MVFR AND BRIEF LCL IFR IN VALLEY FOG THROUGH
12Z...THEN VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR DVLPG THIS PM AND CONTINUING
TONIGHT IN SHRA AND TSRA. LCL IFR CONDS PSBL BTWN 06Z AND 12Z WED
IN FOG AND STRATUS. CONDS GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGHOUT BY
16Z WED IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

LONG TERM...VFR TO PREVAIL THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH
HIGH PRES IN CONTROL...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR AREAS OF VALLEY FOG
AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY...WITH MINIMAL
SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY OUTSIDE THE BAYS TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$


UPDATE...HANES



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.