Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000
FXUS61 KGYX 252051
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
350 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON
MONDAY THEN RAPIDLY DEVELOP AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST
SOUTH OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS ON TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL LINGER
AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO OUR
REGION. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STORM LATE WEEK OR
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT CROSSED THE REGION TODAY BRINGING GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT MOVES
OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO AROUND 10 BELOW IN THE NORTH
HOWEVER WINDS SHOULD DECREASE KEEPING WIND CHILLS ABOVE ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL VERY BRIEFLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
MONDAY BEFORE WE SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
STORM SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD WITH HIGHS ONLY
REACHING THE 20S.

&&
MID RANGE /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/.../WINTER STORM/...
A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL ALREADY BE AFFECTING NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION SPREADS SNOW
NORTHWARD. POTENT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS TO 983 MB BY
TUESDAY MORNING WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROUGH OVERHEAD. THE STORM REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT
12 HRS AS THE TROUGH BATTLES WITH DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING. THIS
STALLING IS KEY TO THE AMOUNT OF QPF AND ULTIMATELY SNOW THAT WILL
FALL OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE CHARACTER OF THE SNOW WILL BE
FLUFFY AS THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY. WENT WITH
A 15:1 SLR ALTHOUGH COULD HAVE GONE HIGHER.

THE MESOSCALE BANDING IS HIGHLIGHTED BY PETERSSON FRONTOGENESIS...
WHICH SHOWS THE BEST BANDING SLICING THROUGH CENTRAL
MASSACHUSETTS BEFORE CURVING NE THROUGH SOUTHERN NH NEAR
CHICHESTER... AND THEN ENE TOWARDS FRYEBURG AND WATERVILLE MAINE.
THIS WILL BE CONSISTENT WITH THE COASTAL/WARM FRONT AS IT TRIES TO
WORK ITS WAY INLAND. ITS IN THIS BAND WHERE THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL
TOTALS WILL FALL... LIKELY AROUND TWO FEET. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
MAY BE FOUND IN SOUTHERN NH AND SW MAINE WHERE THE FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING COINCIDES WITH LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET.

GEFS AND NAM ANOMALIES FOR 925 AND 850 MB U AND EVEN V WIND
COMPONENTS OF MORE THAN 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL SHOW
THIS STORM WILL PACK VERY STRONG WINDS... LIKELY CAUSING WIND
DAMAGE AS THESE WINDS MIX EASILY TO THE SURFACE IN PRECIPITATION
LOADING. FOR THIS REASON FELT CONFIDENT GOING WITH BLIZZARD
WARNINGS FOR THE COAST AND THOSE COUNTIES ALONG THE COAST.
ELSEWHERE... WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 10-20" WARRANTS WINTER
WEATHER WARNINGS. OVER THE WATERS WE HAVE ISSUED GALES AND STORM
FORCE WARNINGS. SHADOWING ON THE WESTWARD SLOPES OF THE WHITES
SHOULD GIVE SOMEWHAT LOWER TOTALS TO ADJOINING COUNTIES.. AND FOR
THIS REASON HAVE GONE WITH ONLY AN ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN COOS. THE
STORM BEGINS TO MOVE OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS TAPERING
OFF.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY WILL SEE RAPID CLEARING AS THE NOREASTER TRACKS OUT OF
THE AREA. THE HIGHLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH
ANOTHER WAVE DIVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.
THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING SNOW TO NEW ENGLAND FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE AS TO TRACK AND STRENGTH
OF THIS SYSTEM... AND HAVE LEANED ON A WEAKER NORTHERLY TRACK FOR
THIS UPDATE. THE STORM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY
WITH CLEARING FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
DECREASE. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.

LONG TERM...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF IFR AND LOWER
CONDITIONS BEGINNING MON NIGHT THRU TUE...AS COASTAL LOW PRES
SPREADS SNWFL ACROSS THE AREA. HEAVY SNWFL AND WIDESPREAD IFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS WIND DOWN TUE EVENING...BUT SN LINGERS INTO WED
MORNING WITH SCT IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. COASTAL TERMINALS MAY
SEE NE GUSTS NEAR 35 KTS DURING THE DAY TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM... WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE BELOW GALE FORCE FOR
THIS EVENING. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY IN
THE BAYS OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURE DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ALL
THE WAY TO THE COAST.

LONG TERM...STRONG LOW PRES S OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING A PERIOD
OF STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS TO THE OUTER WATERS TUE INTO TUE NIGHT.
A GALE WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE BAYS DURING THIS
TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE RELATIVELY LOW IN THE ASTRONOMICAL CYCLE HOWEVER
PROLONGED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A STORM SURGE OF UP TO
2 FEET. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH WAVES OF 15 TO 20 FEET OFF SHORE
MAY PRODUCE FLOODING AND SPLASHOVER AT HIGH TIDE. AT PORTLAND HIGH
TIDE IS 10.0 FT AT 420AM TUESDAY... 9.1FT AT 453AM TUESDAY AND
9.8FT AT 523AM WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR MEZ007>009-012>014.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MEZ018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR NHZ002>009-011-012-015.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NHZ010-013-014.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ001.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ151-153.
     STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

CURTIS...EVERYTHING BUT THE STORM
HANES...THE STORM



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