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000
FXUS61 KGYX 221056 AAB
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
656 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE
TODAY...LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY PUSH OFFSHORE FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
FRIDAY NIGHT AND STRENGTHEN IN THE GULF OF MAINE ON SATURDAY,
MOVING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUNDAY, WITH COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. ON MEMORIAL
DAY AND TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL NUDGE THE LOW NORTHWARD WITH
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.UPDATE...
NOT MUCH TO CHANGE FOR THIS UPDATE AS POPS ARE ON TRACK. AREA OF
RAIN NOW MOVING INTO EASTERN MAINE AND OFFSHORE. HRRR HAS HAD A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS RAIN EVENT. WE SHOULD HAVE A
BREAK THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE RAIN RETURNS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS NOW MOVING OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WITH A RAIN FREE AREA IMMEDIATELY BEHIND IT. FARTHER SOUTH
CONVECTION IS HEAVIER AND STILL MOVING ACROSS PORTSMOUTH WITH
MORE TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. WHEN THE RAIN DOES SUBSIDE PATCHY
DENSE FOG MAY FORM LATER THIS MORNING. MOST THUNDER IS TO OUR
SOUTH HOWEVER HAVE KEPT ISOLATED STRIKES IN THE FORECAST THIS
MORNING. A WARM FRONT IS THE FOCUS OF THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION
AND STRETCHES THROUGH SOUTHERN NY STATE AND OVER LONG ISLAND
SOUND.

MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS BATCH WILL EXIT BY LATE
MORNING. WE WILL ONLY SEE A FEW HOURS MOSTLY FREE OF PRECIPITATION
AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG IT. IN ADDITION DIURNAL HEATING AND
MUCAPES AOA 1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS.
THAT SAID...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL DEPEND ON THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
WARM FRONT. READINGS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NEAR JACKMAN AND
WATERVILLE TO 70S OVER MUCH OF NH AND FAR WESTERN MAINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
RAIN CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT INTO CANADA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON PLACING THE ENTIRETY
OF NH AND WESTERN MAINE IN THE WARM SECTOR. A NNE TO SSW ORIENTED
COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY
HELPING TO GENERATE MODERATE RAIN AND ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS.
AFTER WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS...ALMOST THE ENTIRE REGION SHOULD WARM
INTO THE 70S THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT BUT
WILL BE SLOWED BY A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO RIDE
NORTH UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. EXPECTEDLY, THE FORECAST MODELS ARE BICKERING ABOUT THE
STRENGTH OF THIS LOW, WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE HOW RAPIDLY
THE WET WEATHER WILL EXIT EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS CONTINUES
TO BE BY FAR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS LOW -- CLOSING OFF A
1001 HPA LOW IN THE BAY OF FUNDY SATURDAY NIGHT. WPC HAS CONTINUED
TO FAVOR THE CONSISTENT AND WEAKER ECMWF SOLUTION, AND WE`VE
FOLLOWED THAT THINKING AS WELL HERE. THIS TRANSLATES TO DRYING OUT
ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, WITH DRY WEATHER CONTINUING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

AGREEMENT DOES, HOWEVER, COME IN THE UNSEASONABLY COOL UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH ABOUT SUNDAY
BEFORE FILLING AND MOVING OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAX
TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL RUN SOME 10-15F BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE MAY -- MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE PATRIOT`S DAY THAN
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. EVENTUALLY BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK A
RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS TODAY IN FOG/DRIZZLE/SHOWERS/
STRATUS. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IN BETWEEN PERIODS OF RAIN.
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY AND GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO VFR CLEAR CONDITIONS BY
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A SMALL CRAFT HAS BEEN ISSUED BEGINNING THURSDAY AT
NOON AND LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY. OTHERWISE FOG...DRIZZLE...AND
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES.

LONG TERM...WITH THE FRONT/SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF OF MAINE INTO
THE WEEKEND, EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN THE COASTAL
WATERS TO EXTEND AT LEAST INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO ISSUES ANTICIPATED THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK DUE TO WET
CONDITIONS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HANES
LONG TERM...STJEAN