Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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FXUS61 KGYX 271442
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
942 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COASTAL LOW EXITS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY...AND SNOW
WILL WIND DOWN BY EARLY MORNING. A WEAK TROUGH FORMS OFFSHORE
LATER TODAY AND WILL KEEP THINGS CLOUDY THROUGH TODAY AND COULD
BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO SEACOAST NEW HAMPSHIRE
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL CROSS THE REGION
EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED DICS...
UPDATED GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND
DRY AS OF 14Z ACROSS MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. MANY PEOPLE REMAIN
WITHOUT POWER...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWEST MAINE AND MUCH OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE THE LOSS OF HEAT A
CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. SULL SUN WILL BE REPLACED BY AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATER TODAY.

MESOSCALE MODELS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INVERTED TROUGH TO
SET UP OVER THE SEACOAST OF NH LATER TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...BRINGING A FRESH COATING OF SNOW TO THAT REGION. GUIDANCE
HAS SHIFTED FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS PRECIP...HOWEVER THIS CAN
EASILY SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTH WITH SUBSEQUENT RUNS.

PREV DISC...
SFC LOW SITUATED A OF EASTPORT ME AND JUST W OF
YARMOUTH NS AND TRACKING NE INTO THE MARITIMES ATTM...WITH
TRAILING 700MB CLOSED LOW LOCATED TO THE N AND W...AND THIS
RESPONSIBLE FOR LAST BANDS OF SNOW CROSSING THE CWA...IN CLASSIC
COLD CONVEYOR BELT STYLE. BASED ON RAD/SAT AND MESO MODELS THESE
BANDS WILL SHIFT AND DISSIPATE THRU ABOUT 11-12Z...AND THIS TIMES
OUT NICELY WITH CURRENT WSW...SO WILL LEAVE IT AS IS FOR NOW...AND
TAKE IT DOWN ONCE ACCUMULATING SNOW ENDS. COULD SEE AN ADDL INCH
OR TWO...MAINLY AWAY FROM THE COAST IN WRN ME THRU DAY BREAK.

FOR THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDS THROUGH
MIDDAY AT LEAST...BUT MODELS HINTING AT SOME BRIEF MID LVL
RIDGING THIS AFT...SO COULD SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUN. ALSO..E.XPECT
WINDS TO DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS THE MID LVL
RIDGING MOVES IN. MAXES WILL NOT RISE TOO MUCH AS WE SEE SOME CAA
MOVE IN...BUT THE DOWNSLOPE SHOULD PUSH TEMPS INTO THE MID 30S ON
THE COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
BEHIND THE WEAK MID-LVL RIDGING THAT MOVES THRU THIS
AFT...IS WEAK TOUGHING...AND MODELS SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR
INVERTED TROUGH TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. THE GENERAL
CONSENSUS IS AN E-W ORIENTED TROUGH THAT PARALLELS THE ME COAST.
THIS COULD SPILL SOME SHSN OR EVEN A SHORT PERIOD OF -SN INTO
ROCKINGHAM @CODE AND THE MERRIMACK VLY TONIGHT...BUT LOOKS LIKE
BULK OF PRECIP WILL BE IN COASTAL MASS. STILL...MODELS NOT ALWAYS
SKILLFUL WITH THESE INVERTED TROUGHS...SO IT BEARS WATCHING.

MORNING CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON ON
FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS LIMITED TO THE UPPER 20S N...TO MID 30S S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. THE
WEEKEND STARTS OFF COLD WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT
THE SURFACE AND COLD AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE TEENS A THE COAST AND SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. WITH CLEAR SKIES HAVE LEANED A BIT
COLDER THAN GUIDANCE AS I EXPECT VALLEYS WILL DECOUPLE AND RADIATE
WELL.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST AND RETURN FLOW SETS UP. THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING CLOUDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE 40S ON SUNDAY
AND EVEN THE LOWS WILL BARELY DIP BELOW FREEZING DUE TO CLOUD
COVER SUNDAY NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY... BRINGING MORE
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP BEHIND
THE COLD AIR. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS GUSTY
WELL INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES CONSIDERABLY
BUT THERE WILL AGAIN BE A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MID WEEK AS
ANOTHER POTENTIAL WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARDS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...WILL SEE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE MORNING
AT ALL TERMINALS. MAINLY VFR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE
THAT INVERTED TROUGH COULD PRODUCE IFR AT KPSM TONIGHT

LONG TERM...VFR THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING SUNDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WILL HOLD GALES AS THEY ARE...THRU 7 AM...BUT WINDS
ARE DIMINISHING AT COASTAL LOW TRACKS EWD INTO THE MARITIMES.
WILL NEED TO CONVERT GALES TO SCA FOR WINDS THRU THE
MORNING...ALTHOUGH THESE WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY...BUT SEAS WILL
REMAIN UP INTO TONIGHT.

LONG TERM...SCA`S LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THIS WIND DIRECTION IS ALSO
FAVORABLE TO DRIVE HIGHER WAVES INTO PENOBSCOT BAY. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT AND ABRUPT SWITCH TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND SCA OR MARGINAL
GALES POSSIBLE IN COLD AIR ADVECTION.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>152-154.

&&

$$
CANNON



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