Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 182050
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
250 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

Getting a bit of sunshine this afternoon as a large hole developed
in the clouds around St. Louis, and tracked northeast. However, high
clouds are quickly streaming up from the southwest and skies should
again be mostly cloudy by mid-late afternoon. The higher clouds are
part of a moisture stream from Mexico, ahead of an upper low
currently over northern New Mexico. This low will lift northeast
into the central Plains late tonight. Showers will start to stream
in Thursday morning, and have increased PoP`s to around 60% as early
as late morning from Jacksonville to Effingham, with 60-80% chances
everywhere in the afternoon. Have added some isolated thunder
mention during the afternoon over most of the forecast area, as some
elevated instability brings total-totals up to around 50.
Temperatures to remain on the milder side for this time of year,
mainly mid-upper 40s for highs on Thursday, although some lower 50s
are possible south of I-70.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

Deep trof over the desert SW dominating the weather pattern across
the CONUS, keeping temperatures well above normal for mid
January...and providing a near constant flow of moisture into the
Midwest.  Tomorrows system will linger precip into the evening and
overnight hours with limited MUCAPE, will keep the threat of
thunder, particularly in the north and east.  Friday morning will
see a bit of a break, but with another surge of warm air, convective
showers for the afternoon may creep into the SWrn areas of ILX. Have
introduced some slight chances to keep an eye on the next few runs.
Highs on Friday between the upper 40s and lower 50s with 850mb temps
running btwn 4C and 6C. However, that deep western trof amplifying
the pattern overall as well as enhancing a mid level ridge over the
east coast...will push even warmer temps up into the region for
Saturday...from 6C to 9C at 850mb...resulting in a jump of approx 10
degrees at the surface for highs.  Saturday hinting at
showers...particularly in the eastern portions of the state. The
forecast over the weekend and into the next week becomes dominated
by low pops as the models struggle to handle the first low being
kicked out by one moving on shore of the west coast...and several
pieces of energy making their way across the country.  The
southwesterly flow that accompanies the regime keeps temperatures
well above normal through the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1136 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

Main concern in the short term will be with cloud erosion.
Currently seeing a fairly substantial hole in the low clouds
developing from KSPI southwest and ceilings have scattered out.
MVFR conditions further northeast may thin out as well for a time
early this afternoon, but additional clouds are lifting up from
Arkansas and southern Missouri. Have brought all sites up to VFR
for a time late afternoon into the evening, but MVFR/IFR
conditions are likely to develop again overnight as a storm system
approaches from the southwest. This system may bring some showers
to KSPI by mid morning Thursday, but think that the rain threat
elsewhere will be more afternoon and have left the remaining TAF
sites dry for now.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...Geelhart


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