Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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FXUS66 KLOX 041259
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
430 AM PDT SAT JUL 4 2015

NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...THERE WILL BE NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
IS COASTAL AND SOME VALLEY AREAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. AN UPPER LOW WILL BRING
A DEEPER MARINE LAYER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH MORE EXTENSIVE
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...
AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...MARINE LAYER WAS AROUND 1200 FEET DEEP
EARLY THIS MORNING...A BIT DEEPER THAN AT THIS TIME ON FRI. PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WERE SLIGHTLY STRONGER...WHICH HAS HELPED CAUSED A BETTER
INLAND PUSH OF THE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. EXPECT
CLOUDS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY...AND
SOME CLOUDS MAY PUSH INTO THE SAN FERNANDO VALLEY AND VTU COUNTY
VALLEYS AS WELL. WITH AN ONSHORE GRADIENT UP NEAR 9 MB ONSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON AND A STRONG INVERSION IN PLACE...CLEARING WILL LIKELY BE
SLOW NEAR THE BEACHES...ESPECIALLY S OF PT CONCEPTION. IN FACT...
CLOUDS MAY LINGER ALL DAY AS SOME BEACHES FROM SRN SBA COUNTY
THROUGH L.A. COUNTY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LEFTOVER MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR A FEW BUILDUPS TODAY...BUT DO NOT
EXPECT ANYTHING MORE THAN THAT AT THIS POINT. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE
DOWN A FEW DEGREES IN MOST AREAS TODAY...GENERALLY DOWN TO NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS...EXCEPT POSSIBLY STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS
INLAND AREAS. EXPECT GUSTY SW TO W WINDS IN THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY...BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

AN UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OFF THE COAST WELL TO THE WEST OF
POINT CONCEPTION TONIGHT AND SUN...WHILE THE UPPER HIGH NEAR THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA WEAKENS AND SHIFTS SOUTHWARD. THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER THE MTNS OF L.A.
AND VTU COUNTIES ON SUNDAY...BUT DUE TO THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT... HAVE
KEPT ANY SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS OUT OF THE FORECAST. THE MARINE
LAYER SHOULD DEEPEN A BIT TONIGHT/SUN MORNING...SO EXPECT BETTER
COVERAGE OF LOW CLOUDS IN THE VALLEYS. ONCE AGAIN...THERE COULD BE
SLOW AND LIMITED CLEARING NEAR THE BEACHES. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE DOWN
A COUPLE OF MORE DEGREES IN MOST AREAS ON SUN.

THE UPPER LOW WILL PULL TO THE N AND NW SUN NIGHT AND MON. STILL
EXPECT WIDESPREAD NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN
COASTAL AND MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS...BUT MAX TEMPS COULD EDGE UPWARD
A BIT ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE C0AST AS HEIGHTS RISE AND
ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS SLIGHTLY.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD
ON TUE...SO EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER FROM MON...WITH
NIGHT THROUGH MORNING CLOUDS/FOG IN COASTAL AND MOST VALLEY AREAS.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE ON MON. THE UPPER LOW WILL
SLOWLY APPROACH THE COAST OF CENTRAL CA WED AND THU AND MOVE INTO
CENTRAL CA ON FRI. THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD DEEPEN SOME...WITH NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING STRATUS IN ALL COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS...AND
POSSIBLY SOME DRIZZLE. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE DOWN A FEW DEGREES ON
WED...TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS IN MOST AREAS. EXPECT MOSTLY MINOR
CHANGES IN MAX TEMPS THU AND FRI...EXCEPT FOR SOME ADDITIONAL
COOLING POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS AND DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...

04/1130Z

AT 08Z...THE MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX WAS 1300 FT DEEP. THE TOP OF
THE INVERSION WAS AT 2700 FT WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 24 DEG C.

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN COASTAL TAFS ALTHOUGH VIS MIGHT BOUNCE OUT OF
CATEGORY AND CLEARING COULD BE DELAYED AN HOUR. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
VLY TAFS WHERE THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHC OF IFR CIGS LASTING UNTIL
17Z.

KLAX...PRETTY GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF. CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE
AN HOUR OFF IN EITHER DIRECTION.THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THE
MARINE CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE AS EARLY AS 03Z THIS EVENING.

KBUR...LOW CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 17Z WITH A 40 PERCENT CHC OF
IFR CIGS. GOOD CONFIDENCE IN TAF AFTER 17Z TO 09Z. THEN A 30 PERCENT
CHC OF IFR CIGS AFT 09Z.

&&

.MARINE...

04/300 AM

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. THERE WILL BE LOCAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY GUSTS TO 25 KT EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AROUND
POINT CONCEPTION.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...RORKE
SYNOPSIS...DB

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