Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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FXUS66 KLOX 110519 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1020 PM PDT THU JUL 10 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...

WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST WILL KEEP A DEEP MARINE LAYER IN
PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WEST AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND FOR INLAND AREAS. MONSOONAL FLOW WILL
RETURN BY SUNDAY...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...

A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE
OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. MODERATELY STRONG ONSHORE FLOW
AND A 1500-2000 FOOT DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA.
A COOLER WEATHER PATTERN WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY.

WITH THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGESTING A FAIRLY MOIST LOW-
LEVEL PATTERN DEVELOPING...THE MARINE LAYER AND ITS FORMATION
SHOULD BE ENHANCED. AT THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...MARGINAL INSTABILITY BRUSHES THE AREA TO BRING THE
THREAT OF DRIZZLE AREA-WIDE. PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE WAS ADDED TO
THE PACKAGE THROUGH FRIDAY.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SEEMS AGREEABLE THROUGH FRIDAY. AN UPDATE
WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...THE CENTER OF THE HIGH CURRENTLY OVER NEW MEXICO IS
EXPECTED TO SLIDE NORTHWESTWARD INTO ARIZONA ON SATURDAY AND
STRENGTHEN ALONG THE WAY. THIS SHOULD WEAKEN ONSHORE FLOW AND THE
MARINE LAYER COVERAGE...BRINGING SOME SIGNIFICANT WARMING TO THE
REGION. TRIPLE DIGITS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WARMEST
MOUNTAIN AND INTERIOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

LONG TERM...THE HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO UTAH/NEVADA ON SUNDAY AND
PARK ITSELF THERE THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN WEAKEN SOME THROUGH
THURSDAY BU REMAIN IN THE NEVADA AREA. AMPLE WARMING IS ON TRACK
FOR SUNDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS OVER
THE WARMER MOUNTAINS AND INTERIOR VALLEYS. THE WARMEST COASTAL
VALLEY WILL ALSO FLIRT WITH 100 DEGREES...WHILE COASTAL AREAS WILL
SEE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH LITTLE TO NO STRATUS.

THE POSITION OF THIS HIGH WILL ALSO BRING A FEW DAYS OF STEADY
SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT. WHILE MODELS CONTINUE TO WAVER ON THE MOISTURE
CONTENT WITH EACH MODEL RUN...THE LONGEVITY OF THIS SOUTHEAST FLOW
AND HOT TEMPERATURES SUGGESTS THAT AT LEAST ONE DAY OF THE MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME WILL BRING THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF OUR
AREA. THE BEST DAY RIGHT NOW LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY. WITH THE EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER WITH THIS FLOW...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP A FEW DEGREES
EACH DAY AFTER THE HOTTEST DAY ON SUNDAY...AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH WEAKENS SOMEWHAT.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A EASTERLY WAVE TRAVERSING THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. WHILE THE LATEST SOLUTIONS ARE WEAKER THAN
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...ITS PRESENCE DOES BRING THE OUTSIDE POTENTIAL
FOR NIGHT/EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORM FORMATION OVER THE COASTAL AND
VALLEY AREAS OF LOS ANGELES...VENTURA...AND SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES.
NOT BULLISH ENOUGH TO PUT IT IN THE FORECAST YET...ESPECIALLY WITH
THE DOWNWARD TREND IN THE MODELS...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE AND
WORTH MENTIONING HERE.

&&

.AVIATION...11/0520Z...

OVERALL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF PACKAGE. LATEST AMDAR
SOUNDINGS INDICATE INVERSION AROUND 1500 FEET...WITH SATELLITE
SHOWING STRATUS ESTABLISHING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. MUCH LIKE
LAST NIGHT...STRATUS SHOULD PUSH INTO COASTAL VALLEYS OVERNIGHT AS
WELL AS THE SALINAS VALLEY. FOR FRIDAY MORNING...EXPECT VERY SIMILAR
CLEARING PATTERN WITH CLOUDS LINGERING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS SOME
COASTAL TAF SITES.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF. BURNOFF OF MVFR CIGS COULD BE
AN HOUR OR TWO LATER THAN CURRENT 17Z FORECAST.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE THAT
CIGS COULD REMAIN AT MVFR LEVELS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...10/900 PM.

OUTER WATERS...INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS ON FRIDAY FOR ZONES 673
AND 676...WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS BETWEEN POINT CONCEPTION
AND THE CHANNEL ISLANDS. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WINDS COULD BE
STRONGER THAN FORECAST ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MORE
SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OUTER WATERS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO NEXT WEEK.

INNER WATERS...INCREASED WINDS IN ZONE 645 AND IN THE WESTERN
PORTION OF ZONE 650 DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OF SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THESE WINDS REACHING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL/KITTELL
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...HALL/KJ
SYNOPSIS..SUKUP

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