462
FXUS66 KLOX 051925
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1225 PM PDT Sun May 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...05/933 AM.

A cold storm system has shifted east today, leaving cooler
temperatures and gusty west to northwest winds. A warming trend
will begin Monday and continue through Wednesday, then little
change into next weekend. Gusty northerly winds are expected at
times, especially in the mountains and in southern Santa Barbara
County.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...05/942 AM.

The storm has exited to the east and showers have mostly ended,
but can`t rule out a light shower in the Grapevine area between
the I5 and the northern Ventura County mountains as northerly flow
is pushing up some moisture there. Otherwise, some gusty west to
northwest winds at times today and much cooler than normal despite
the sunshine.

Heights will quickly rise Monday with light offshore flow to the
east and a stronger gradient from the north. This will continue
through mid week, generating some gusty northerly winds across the
mountains and southern Santa Barbara County, possibly requiring
some advisories during the late afternoon and overnight hours.
Temperatures will see a big bounce upward Monday with the offshore
flow, with warmer valleys getting into the lower 80s and most
other areas in the low to mid 70s. Some additional warming
expected Tuesday and Wednesday.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...05/502 AM.

A warming trend continues into at least Wednesday and possibly
into late week. Forecast ensemble temperature means climbs
throughout the week, but there is quite a bit of spread across the
solutions with some uncertainties later in the week and next
weekend. The spread becomes much more significant as forecast gets
into Friday through next Sunday. The model solutions are
struggling with how to handle the ridge to the west and the trough
over the West, which could retrograde back as a cutoff low. The
spread gets as large as 20-30 degrees for all locations across the
region. For now, the forecast goes with NBM values.

Gusty northerly winds are likely to persist through the Interstate
5 Corridor and across southern Santa Barbara County during the
week.

&&

.AVIATION...05/1924Z.

At 1835Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor inversion. There
was a moist layer up to 5800 ft.

Moderate to high confidence in TAFs. Timing of wind changes could
be off by +/- 2 hours, and +/- 5 kt gusts. There is a 20% chance
of IFR- VLIFR conds for KPRB, KSMX, and KSBP 08Z-17Z, and 20-30%
chance of MVFR cigs at KSMO, KLAX, KLGB, KBUR, and KVNY 10Z-16Z.
Gusty W to NW winds will affect much of the region thru this
evening with areas of LLWS, turbulence and mdt UDDF.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 20-30% chance of
bkn018-025 cigs 10Z-16Z Mon. There is a 20% chance of northerly
cross winds to 12-18 kt from 02Z-07Z, and a 20% chance of an E
wind component of 7-8 kt 10Z-17Z Mon.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 20-30% chance of
bkn018-025 cigs 10Z-16Z Mon. There is a 30% chance of NW wind
gusts to 25 kt from 16Z-02Z Mon.

&&

.MARINE...05/916 AM.

In the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in the forecast.
In the southern two zones (PZZ673/676), there is a 70-80% chance
of winds increasing to Gale Force levels this afternoon and
continuing thru late tonight. Elsewhere and otherwise, Small Craft
Advisory (SCA) level winds (and seas at times) are expected thru
Wed night, with a 40% chance of SCA conds (mainly seas) continuing
Thu. There is a 20% chance of Gale Force wind gusts across the
waters south of Point Sal on Mon afternoon into Mon night, and a
50% chance for all outer waters Tue afternoon into Tue night.
Winds and seas should remain below SCA levels Thu night thru Sat
morning.

For the Inner Waters N of Pt. Sal, moderate to high confidence in
the forecast. Thru Wed night, winds are expected to reach SCA
levels during the afternoon/eve hours. Seas may remain at or above
SCA levels Mon night thru Wed morning, even when the winds
decrease. Then, conds should remain below SCA levels Thu night
thru Sat morning.

In the Inner Waters S of Pt. Conception, moderate confidence in the
forecast. Expect SCA level winds to increase to gales this
afternoon into tonight across the SBA Channel (50-60% chance),
from Anacapa Island to Malibu (40-50% chance), and across the
western portion of the southern inner waters (50-60% chance).
Elsewhere, SCA conds are expected thru late tonight. SCA conds are
likely (70% chance) across the Western SBA Channel during the
late afternoon thru late night hours Mon and Tue, with a 30-40%
chance of SCA conds during these times in the eastern portion of
the SBA Channel and western portions of the southern inner waters.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening
      for zones 87-340-341-346>348-354-355-362-366-381-383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory remains in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for
      zones 349>353-376>378. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PDT this evening
      for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT this afternoon
      for zones 650-655-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for zones
      650-655-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Monday for zone
      670. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/Hall
AVIATION...Lund/DB
MARINE...DB/Lund
SYNOPSIS...MW

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox