Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 271114 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
614 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Sunday

Updated for the 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Flight categories should largely be VFR today, with the caveat of
some MVFR conditions possible in the north as nocturnal convection
moves into the state from Missouri. Currently only have VCSH
mentioned at KHRO and KBPK this morning due to uncertainties in
how long lived this convection will be. Further south, any
convection isn`t expected to make it KLIT or KHOT until likely
03z-06z this evening. There is the possibility of a few isolated
cells developing in central parts of the state this
afternoong/evening, but I think those will be too scattered to say
whether they would be INVOF any central Arkansas terminals at this
time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 424 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017 )

SHORT TERM...Today Through Friday Night

The change to a cooler, less-miserable pattern begins in the next
24 hours. And while the heat hasn`t been record breaking, this
forecaster is anxiously awaiting the weekend weather!

But enough personal thoughts, let`s get to it. Upper heights will
begin to fall across the state today as the upper ridge continues
to retreat westward and shortwave energy moves southeast through
Missouri. Showers and thunderstorms, stretching from central
Oklahoma into central Missouri, associated with this shortwave
energy will push into northern Arkansas later this morning.
Indications are that they will be on a weakening trend as they
move in, so only chance PoPs in the northern parts of the state
are in the forecast through the day. Ahead of the storms, temperatures
today will be above normal again today for much of the state. Heat
advisories remain in affect to account for this. More widespread
showers and thunderstorms will move into the state tonight and
Friday, with rain likely for the central and eastern half of the
state.

Between cloud cover and rainfall, temperatures will be noticeably
cooler tomorrow, though the air mass change won`t occur until the
long term period starts on Saturday.

LONG TERM...Saturday Through Wednesday

Big pattern change will be forthcoming in the extended period.
A blocking pattern is expected, with a ridge of high pressure
over the southwest United States and a large trough of low
pressure over the eastern states. This will result in a northwest
wind flow aloft locally.

At the beginning of the period, a cold front will exit Arkansas
to the south, with chances of rain ending on Saturday. Otherwise, it
appears to be mostly dry through early next week.

The main story will be cooler temperatures. While it will not
feel like fall, readings will be a few degrees below average.
Humidity levels will drop off, and it will feel more comfortable
than in recent days.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-Bradley-
Calhoun-Clark-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-Desha-Drew-Faulkner-
Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-
Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Monroe-Montgomery-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-
Pope-Prairie-Pulaski-Saline-Scott-White-Woodruff-Yell.

&&

$$


Aviation...64



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