Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 032355
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
655 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.AVIATION...

CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS THE STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE IN MOST PLACES...OR LIGHT FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. WINDS
WILL THEN BECOME GUSTY FROM THE SW DURING THE DAY BEFORE BECOMING
NW AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OUT THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS FAR AS TIMING
GOES...THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN AR BY MID TO LATE
MORNING...WITH IT REACHING CENTRAL AR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND
SOUTHERN SITES CLOSE TO OR JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE PERIOD. NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AS MOISTURE LEVEL REMAIN TOO LOW.
HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE...WITH CIGS EXPECTED TO STAY VRF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 141 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...GENERATING JUST INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR A LARGE
PORTION OF THE CWA. THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE
EVENING HRS AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH OF AR.

LIGHT WINDS WILL BE SEEN OVERNIGHT...BUT A NEW COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE ON WED. MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN LIMITED AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT...AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW FOR MOST AREAS.
THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS ERN SECTIONS OF AR THE
POINTS FURTHER EAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT KEEP THE LZK CWA DRY AT
THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THIS FRONT...BUT SHOULD STAY JUST BELOW
LAKE WIND CRITERIA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN APPROACH THE REGION
BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WED NIGHT INTO THU. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A RESULT.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

LATEST MODELS NOT SHOWING ANY REAL SURPRISES THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS
ALL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF A BLOCKING PATTERN EARLY ON THAT
STARTS TO BREAK DOWN AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSES. WITH MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WILL SIMPLY GO WITH A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS.

PERIOD INITIATES WITH DEEP TROUGHS/UPPER LOWS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES AND OFF THE WEST COAST. IN BETWEEN WILL BE A SPRAWLING UPPER
RIDGE WITH THE ENTIRE PATTERN IN BLOCKING MODE THROUGH SATURDAY. AS A
RESULT...DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH TEMPS GRADUALLY TICKING UP
AS THE WINDS TURN MORE SOUTH.

WESTERN LOW EVENTUALLY MOVES ON SHORE AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SMALL RAIN CHANCES BEING
INTRODUCED. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD BUT NOTHING OVERLY HIGH AT THIS POINT AS THE SYSTEM PASSES
WELL TO THE NORTH BUT DRAGS A FRONT THROUGH THE STATE LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

224
AVIATION...99



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