Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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040
FXUS64 KLZK 270821
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
321 AM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday Night
Same song next verse. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
continue over the northeast this morning...as one wave moves
northeast of the area. More showers/storms will spread into the
region during the day today...as another wave moves up from Texas.

Showers/thunderstorms will continue through Friday. Precip chances
will diminish on Saturday as the primary upper level system moves
into the Ohio valley.

Similar to the last two days, while widespread severe weather is
not expected, there could be an isolated strong or severe
thunderstorm capable of producing marginally severe hail and
damaging winds. Also, stronger storms will be capable of producing
heavy rainfall, which could lead to localized flooding issues. I`d
be a little more concerned if a large-scale forcing mechanism was
closer to the area.
&&

.LONG TERM...Sunday Through Thursday
An upper shortwave trough will be lifting NE into the NRN Great
Lakes region at the start of the long term period...with weakening
west to SW flow aloft over the SRN Plains/SRN MS River Valley
region. Moisture levels will remain high as no fronts will have
moved south far enough to usher in any drier more stable air into
the region. However...moisture and potential instability levels
will be high enough that chances for SHRA/TSRA will remain in the
forecast from late this weekend into early next week. Coverage of
convective activity will likely be more isolated to somewhat
scattered...and generally diurnally driven in nature given the
synoptic scale setup. This could change though with any potential
mesoscale features that may present themselves during this period.
However...this time period is a bit too far out to discuss specific
mesoscale features that could generate more organized convective
activity.

By the middle of next week...a cold front will be dropping south
towards the state...and may push far enough south to provide a
better forcing mechanism for more organized convective activity. As
a result...chances for precip do increase late in the forecast. This
front may even move far enough south that some drier more stable
air could filter into the state by late next week.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No major fire weather issues are expected during the next seven
days. Humidity will remain high, with rain chances expected each
day.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     78  67  82  67 /  70  70  40  20
Camden AR         82  69  86  68 /  70  70  40  10
Harrison AR       74  65  80  64 /  80  60  30  20
Hot Springs AR    78  68  84  68 /  80  60  40  10
Little Rock   AR  81  68  85  69 /  70  60  40  10
Monticello AR     82  69  85  69 /  50  50  40  10
Mount Ida AR      77  68  84  66 /  80  60  30  10
Mountain Home AR  76  65  82  65 /  80  60  30  20
Newport AR        81  68  83  66 /  70  60  40  10
Pine Bluff AR     80  69  83  68 /  60  60  40  10
Russellville AR   78  67  84  67 /  80  60  30  20
Searcy AR         80  67  83  66 /  70  60  40  20
Stuttgart AR      81  69  84  68 /  70  60  40  10
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...57 / Long Term...62



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