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000
FXUS64 KLZK 221929
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
229 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

.Short term...Tonight through Sunday night

Not a lot of value added changes will be forth coming this afternoon
as overall pattern looks to be pretty much locked in through the
short term period. With no major differences noted between the
models this afternoon, a blend of solutions is preferred.

Highly amplified upper pattern remains in place this afternoon,
characterized by an elongated upper ridge over the area with deep
troughing over the western half of the naton. With little change in
this pattern expected on Saturday, another warm and humid day is
expected with little if any convection expected. Temperatures will
continue to run well above normal considering Saturday will be the
first full day of fall.

Western trough forecast to deepen through the period with a weak
upper low approaching the forecast area from southeast on Sunday.
Moisture will increase slightly and with upper low in the vicinity,
a slight chance of diurnally driven convection is in the forecast
for Sunday. With increased cloud cover and chances of precipitation
in the forecast on Sunday, temperatres will be slightly cooler but
only by a degree or two.
&&

.Long Term...Monday through Friday...

The start of the long term period can be characterized by continued
above normal temperatures and only isolated chances for shower and
thunderstorm activity. The pattern aloft will see continued ridging
across the south and east with Maria slowly drifting north off the
Atlantic coast. There will be a weak disturbance aloft situated
southeast of the state which will help spark a few showers and
thunderstorms. Out west, continued troughing and active weather will
be seen.

By mid week, changes will be seen across Arkansas as the upper ridge
becomes more compact and moves southward.  At the surface, a front
will make its way through the state on Wednesday with high pressure
building in its wake. Unfortunately, there won`t be a significant
amount of moisture in place and widespread appreciable rain isn`t
expected.

In the wake of the front, cooler air will spill into the area,
making it feel more like Fall out there. Other concerns into the
long term period and beyond include potential drought development
and locally increased fire weather concerns. There just doesn`t
appear to be any indication from long term model solutions that
would provide much needed early Fall rains to turn this drying trend
around.

$$

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     69  90  68  89 /   0  10  10  20
Camden AR         71  92  70  91 /   0  10  10  20
Harrison AR       67  88  66  86 /   0  10  10  20
Hot Springs AR    71  91  71  89 /   0  10  10  20
Little Rock   AR  71  91  71  90 /   0  10  10  20
Monticello AR     71  91  70  90 /   0  20  10  20
Mount Ida AR      68  90  68  90 /   0  10  10  20
Mountain Home AR  68  90  68  87 /   0  10  10  20
Newport AR        69  91  69  89 /   0  10  10  20
Pine Bluff AR     70  91  70  90 /   0  10  10  20
Russellville AR   70  91  70  90 /   0  10  10  20
Searcy AR         69  90  69  90 /   0  10  10  20
Stuttgart AR      69  90  70  89 /   0  10  10  20
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...56 / Long Term...67