Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 250845
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
245 AM CST Sat Nov 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Sunday Night

A weak cold front is dropping south into the CWA early this Sat
morning...with primarily a wind switch to the north with this front.
Very dry air remains in place...with no precip expected at this
time. However...some elevated returns have been seen on regional
radar imagery...but should continue see this activity evaporate
before reaching the ground due to the light intensity and with 15-30
deg F dewpt depressions in SFC obs.

This front will continue to drop south throughout the day...with
primarily some increased clouds and a weak NRLY wind expected. This
will result in temps a few deg cooler than seen on Fri for highs.
SFC high pressure will move into the state for late tonight into
midday Sun...with dry conditions persisting through the short term
period. Temps on Sun will be similar to what is expected this
afternoon...with maybe a deg or two cooler. Expect the drier
conditions to persist into at least the first part of the long term
period.

&&

.LONG TERM...Monday Through Friday

The extended forecast will start with surface high pressure to the
east of AR and upper northwest flow into the region. Also upper
level high pressure ridging will be just to the west of AR. Monday
and Tuesday will see dry weather with mild November temperatures.
Lows will mainly be in the 40s while highs in the 60s. Tuesday will
also see a developing cut off low pressure system to the west, which
will gradually move east Tuesday night, Wednesday and to Thursday.
Some weaker energy may reach far western AR later Tuesday and into
Tuesday night, where a slight chance of convection may be seen.

On Wednesday to Thursday, this upper system moves through the
region, and will bring chances of convection to AR. This cycle run,
the GFS and Euro models are in better agreement with the main
convection period on Wednesday to Wednesday night. This system and
cold front then move through AR by Thursday morning. Surface high
pressure will then build in over the region bringing cooler and
drier weather conditions. Moisture remains a limiting factor on the
amount of rain expected, and forecasts have overall less than 1
inch, and mainly focused over northern AR.

As mentioned, temperatures will start above normal values, until the
system pushes through AR on late Wednesday to Thursday. Highs will
be in the 60s, then back to the 50s late week. Lows will be around
normal values, warm ahead of the system, then back again to at or
below normal values.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     66  38  62  40 /  10   0   0   0
Camden AR         70  41  65  37 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       62  36  62  40 /   0   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    69  40  63  38 /  10   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  67  41  63  39 /  10   0   0   0
Monticello AR     68  41  64  38 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      69  38  64  38 /  10   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  63  35  62  39 /   0   0   0   0
Newport AR        65  38  61  38 /  10   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     68  40  63  38 /   0   0   0   0
Russellville AR   68  37  63  38 /  10   0   0   0
Searcy AR         66  38  62  37 /  10   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      66  39  62  38 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...62 / Long Term...59



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