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000
FXUS64 KLZK 281736
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1236 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. AT KHRO AND KBPK WINDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER WITH WIND
SPEEDS APPROACHING 10 KTS...WITH WIND SPEEDS BECOMING LIGHT THIS
EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 603 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

AVIATION...

COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE STATE WITH A MUCH COOLER
AIR MASS SLOWLY OVERSPREADING THE STATE. ANY PRECIPITATION HAS
MOVED SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. AFTER SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE
SOUTH MOVES OUT THIS MORNING...ONLY HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
DEVELOPING. WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

THE COLD FRONT HAD MADE IT THROUGH ARKADELPHIA AND PINE BLUFF AS
OF 3 AM THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD MANAGE TO PUSH OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUNDAY EVENING DISSIPATED BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WAS DRY...EXCEPT THAT A FEW MORE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO POP UP ALONG THE FRONT IN SOUTH
CENTRAL ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. BUT AS THE FRONT GOES...SO WILL
THESE...AND THEY MOVE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK.
OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TODAY AND TUESDAY...WITH LOWS NEAR 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL TONIGHT AND HIGHS TODAY AND TUESDAY ABOUT 5-7 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

BY TUE AFTERNOON A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ESTABLISHED ACROSS
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE AND
STRENGTHENING RIDGE OUT WEST. A DISTURBANCE WILL DROP INTO THE
REGION IN NW UPPER FLOW EARLY WED MORNING. MODELS INSIST IN
BRINGING RAINFALL INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS BY MID WED MORNING...THEN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THERE MAY BE A LULL IN PRECIP INTENSITY WED NIGHT BUT ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVIER RAINFALL. TAKING INTO ACCOUNT ALL MODEL
SOLUTIONS...THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CONSISTENCY WITH RESPECT TO
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE. IN GENERAL THOUGH THE MIDDLE
GROUND APPROACH WOULD SAY SOMEWHERE SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR IS
A GOOD BET...AND THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT THAT THINKING.
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST OF THE
WEEK. BETWEEN THE RAINFALL AND CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
IN EXCESS OF 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...AND MAY STRUGGLE TO MAKE 80
DEGREES ON THURSDAY FOR MOST AREAS. RAINFALL SHOULD PUSH OUT OF
THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

DIFFERENCES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD NOT NEARLY AS PRONOUNCED VERSUS
THIS TIME LAST NIGHT WITH THE GFS SOLUTION NOW BACKING OFF ITS
SOLUTION OF CLOSING OFF AN UPPER LOW IN THE BASE OF THE EASTERN
CONUS TROUGH. WILL CONTINUE TO BLEND FORECAST SOLUTIONS FOR THE
DIFFERENCES THAT ARE STILL SHOWING UP THIS MORNING WITH A LEAN
TOWARDS THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF.

PERIOD INITIATES WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN PLACE WITH THE
SEEMINGLY EVER PRESENT WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND SUBSEQUENT DOWNSTREAM
TROUGHING IN PLACE. FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF THE STATE WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
WITH PLENTY OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE ABOUT AND THE MODELS CONTINUING TO
HOLD ON TO QPF...MAINLY TO THE SOUTH....WILL HOLD ON TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR EARLY IN THE PERIOD.

MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING SOME PRECIPITATION OVER THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES AND WILL ADD SOME MINIMAL POPS HERE WITH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA DRY. WILL GRADUALLY REMOVE ALL POPS ACROSS THE
CWA AS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ITS PRESENCE FELT.

UPPER PATTERN REALLY DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREDOMINATE. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
SOMEWHAT...THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     87  63  83  64 /   0   0   0  20
CAMDEN AR         92  67  88  65 /  10   0   0  20
HARRISON AR       83  59  82  61 /   0   0   0  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    89  65  86  64 /   0   0   0  30
LITTLE ROCK   AR  89  65  85  65 /   0   0   0  20
MONTICELLO AR     90  67  86  64 /  10   0   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      89  63  85  63 /   0   0   0  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  85  60  82  62 /   0   0   0  20
NEWPORT AR        86  62  82  64 /   0   0   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     89  65  84  64 /   0   0   0  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   88  63  86  64 /   0   0   0  30
SEARCY AR         87  64  84  64 /   0   0   0  20
STUTTGART AR      87  64  83  64 /   0   0   0  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...225