Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KLZK 282350
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
550 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE IS JUST EAST OF ARKANSAS. STRONG SOUTH WINDS OVER
ARKANSAS WILL DIMINISH SOME OVERNIGHT BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN IN
THE MORNING. WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED. THE SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE STATE OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT LOW CLOUDS
TO DEVELOP EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE MORNING. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE IN MOST AREAS DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE WARMING TEMPERATURES...
ELEVATED WINDS...STRATUS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN OVER THE
WEEKEND. THEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...MONDAY TO EARLY TUESDAY...
BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ARE IN THE FORECAST...WITH SOME RISK
OF A WINTRY MIX MAINLY FAR NW TO N AR MONDAY AM AND TUESDAY AM.

TODAY HAS BEEN SUNNY WITH MORE MODERATE TEMPS AS A SOUTH WIND
RETURNED TO AR. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS OFF TO THE SE OF
AR...AND AN ELEVATED SOUTH WIND AT 10 TO 20 MPH. SOME MOISTURE
RETURN WAS SEEN OVER FAR SE TEXAS IN THE VISUAL SATELLITE AND THIS
WILL GRADUALLY BRING SOME LOWER STRATUS CLOUDS TO AR. SURFACE DEW
POINT TEMPS WERE IN THE 30S. A LOW LEVEL JET WILL SET UP OVERNIGHT
AND HELP BRING STRATUS CLOUDS INTO THE STATE. THE UPPER TROUGH WAS
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND UPPER NW FLOW IS SET UP OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. AT THIS TIME ONLY SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE SEEN
WELL UP STREAM.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

MOSTLY CLEAR TO START THE OVERNIGHT...BUT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
INTENSIFIES...IT WILL HELP BRING MORE MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COAST
AND POSSIBLE STRATUS CLOUDS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS. SATURDAY
WILL ONLY SEE POSSIBLE DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN IN SPOTS WITH LIMITED
LIFT AND UP-GLIDE...WHILE A BIT MORE ON SUNDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF LIGHT RAIN. MODELS ARE OVERALL CONSISTENT SHOWING SOME LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE SATURDAY AM AND POSSIBLY AFTERNOON...AND THEN A
BIT BETTER CHANCES...ALBEIT SLIGHT...ON SUNDAY. ELEVATED S TO SW
WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND MAY PROMPT A LAKE WIND ADVISORY...BUT AT
THIS TIME WILL HOLD OFF DUE TO FORECAST BELOW THRESHOLD VALUES.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND ON MONDAY...SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE
FORECAST...AS BETTER LIFT AND A COLD FRONT SAG INTO AR. MONDAY
AROUND SUNRISE...TEMPS WILL APPROACH FREEZING IN ISOLATED SPOTS OF
NW AR AND WE MAY SEE LIGHT RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING OVER TO
SOME LIGHT WINTRY MIX. SOUNDING DATA WOULD SUPPORT MORE OF A
FREEZING LIGHT PRECIP SCENARIO AT THIS TIME. LIGHT RAIN WILL
CONTINUE ON MONDAY TO EARLY TUESDAY AND AGAIN A SHORT PERIOD OF A
WINTRY MIX WILL BE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE PRECIP FIELD BEFORE IT
MOVES OUT OF AR. AT THIS TIME ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT AMOUNTS...FEW
HUNDREDTHS. BUT THIS WILL BE MONITORED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL WARM TO THE 60S SATURDAY TO 60S AND SOME
70S SUNDAY...THEN MUCH COLDER WITH THE COLD FRONT MONDAY TO
TUESDAY. DRY AND COOLER WEATHER FOR TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS A SLOW RETURN IN THE WED/WED NIGHT TIME
FRAME. MEANWHILE...A WEAK SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT SHOULD AT LEAST
MOVE CLOSE TO AR ON THU. AFTER THAT...THERE IS DISAGREEMENT ON HOW
FAR THIS FRONT WILL MAKE IT...SINCE THE STRENGTH OF HIGH PRESSURE
BEHIND THE FRONT IS OPEN TO QUESTION. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE
THE FRONT COULD WEAKEN AND DAWDLE FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS.
THUS...SMALL POPS ARE INDICATED FOR THU INTO FRI. TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY RISE TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     43  65  55  69 /   0  10  20  20
CAMDEN AR         48  70  58  74 /   0  10  10  20
HARRISON AR       45  68  54  69 /   0   0  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    46  68  56  72 /   0  10  20  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  45  68  56  72 /   0  10  20  20
MONTICELLO AR     46  68  58  73 /   0  10  10  20
MOUNT IDA AR      47  68  57  71 /   0  10  10  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  43  67  53  69 /   0  10  10  20
NEWPORT AR        43  65  56  69 /   0  10  20  20
PINE BLUFF AR     45  69  57  73 /   0  10  10  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   43  69  54  70 /   0  10  20  20
SEARCY AR         43  65  54  70 /   0  10  20  20
STUTTGART AR      43  67  55  71 /   0  10  10  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...51





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.