Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 232349 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...Update
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
555 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

.Aviation...

Areas in northern AR will see MVFR conditions with ceilings, fog and
rain. Patchy IFR conditions will be possible especially over central
and southern AR. Over central to southern AR, VFR ceilings with
areas of MVFR to spotty IFR conditions with fog will be seen this
evening and tonight. Most of the rain will be over northern AR this
evening and Friday night. Only isolated lighter rain will be seen
over central and southern AR. Winds will be mainly northeast to
southeast at 5 to 10 mph. Some areas will see variable winds. A low
level jet will set up later tonight, and low level wind shear will
be possible at mainly central Tafs. (59)

&&

.Prev Discussion.../ Issued 236 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2018/
.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Sunday

Widespread heavy rain continues to be the primary story as of
early this morning...with an additional 1 to over 4 inches
observed since Thu morning. The heaviest rainfall had fallen
pretty much along the I-30/US-67 corridor...where most of the
impacts have been seen the past 24 hrs. Most of the convection
this afternoon is starting to shift north and NW this afternoon as
the elevated front and LLJ lift north over that portion of the
state. This will provide central and SE sections of the state a
bit a of break from the widespread rainfall.

Tonight...the heaviest and most widespread rainfall will be focused
over the NWRN portion of the CWA...with more scattered activity
expected elsewhere. A new cold front will surge east through the
state on Sat into Sat night...with additional heavy rainfall
expected. While the movement of any convection will be more
progressive on Sat/Sat night...and with a bit less training
expected...there will be higher overall rainfall rates. This will
keep the flash flood threat high...especially given the most recent
flash flood guidance being less than an half inch for most areas.
River flooding will only continue or possibly get worse...with an
additional 1 to 3 inches of rain expected...with locally higher
amounts possible under the more intense convection. Kept the flood
watch going for all counties through 06Z Sun for this continued
heavy rainfall and flooding threat.

A severe weather threat will develop on Sat as well given increasing
instability and low level shear. Dewpts for most areas will increase
into the 60s...with temps also in the 60s to mid 70s for Sat
afternoon. Forecast SFC based instability looks to increase to the
500 to 1500 J/kg range for most of the SE two-thirds of the
CWA...with 0-1km SRH of 300 to over 400 m2/s2 along and ahead of the
main convective line. This will result in some increased potential
for severe thunderstorms...with damaging winds and tornadoes the
primary concern. The tornado threat will likely be from brief QLCS
spin ups along the leading edge of the convective line...but may
also develop with a few scattered/isolated cells ahead of this line.
Will also note the potential for trees to be knocked over will be
easier given the very saturated soils...so even sub-SVR winds may
still create some tree damage.

All of the convection should be east of the state by Sun
morning...though some lingering precip may remain over far SERN AR
on Sun. Otherwise...the overall threat for severe wx and additional
heavy rainfall will be low to end the short term period on Sun.

&&

.LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Friday

The extended forecast will start with surface high pressure over the
region, while the upper pattern remains zonal. Dry weather with mild
temperatures will be seen Sunday through Monday. Into Tuesday, the
surface high will move east, and a return south flow will bring back
moisture levels to AR. The upper pattern has some upper high
pressure ridge from the southern Plains to the southeast US, which
will again set up a southwest to northeast upper flow into the
region. This will bring upper level energy to AR, and rain is back
in the forecast through the day Tuesday, and better chances of rain
and convection Tuesday night to Wednesday, with the system and cold
front pushing through AR later Wednesday night to Thursday morning.
There is some differences in model timing of the Wednesday system,
with the GFS faster pushing the cold front through AR, while the
Euro is slower. Therefore, some uncertainty does exist in the time
of the system. Otherwise, a good chance of convection and heavy rain
will be seen for AR. After the cold front, surface high pressure
will build into the region, and cooler temperatures, closer to
normal values, will be seen with the rain ending.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     51  68  41  62 /  60 100  70   0
Camden AR         58  75  46  67 /  30  80  80  10
Harrison AR       49  65  35  60 /  90  90  20   0
Hot Springs AR    56  70  43  64 /  40  90  40   0
Little Rock   AR  55  72  44  64 /  40  90  70   0
Monticello AR     61  77  50  65 /  50  70 100  20
Mount Ida AR      55  70  39  64 /  60 100  30   0
Mountain Home AR  50  64  36  61 /  80  90  30   0
Newport AR        52  70  43  61 /  50  90  80   0
Pine Bluff AR     57  74  46  64 /  40  80  90  10
Russellville AR   53  67  37  63 /  60 100  30   0
Searcy AR         53  71  43  62 /  50  90  80   0
Stuttgart AR      57  72  45  63 /  40  80  90  10
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flood Watch through Saturday evening FOR Arkansas-Baxter-Boone-
Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-Desha-
Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-Izard-
Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Lincoln-Logan-Lonoke-Marion-Monroe-
Montgomery-Newton-Ouachita-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Prairie-Pulaski-
Saline-Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff-Yell.

&&

$$

Short Term...62 / Long Term...59



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