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000
FXUS64 KLZK 201930
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
230 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

...SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW WAS POSITIONED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A SFC FRONT EXTENDING FROM MN SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL
OK. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE INTO THE STATE BY TOMORROW
MORNING.

CONCERN ATTM IS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. THE ATMOSPHERE
ACROSS THE CWA IS QUITE UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SFC BASED
CAPE VALUES ARE AROUND 3400 J/KG. 18Z KLZK SOUNDING APPEARS TO HAVE
SOME DATA ERRORS BUT THE CAP APPEARS TO HAVE ERODED SIGNIFICANTLY.
STORMS ARE JUST STARTING TO FIRE UP IN OK AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
SUPERCELLS ARE A CONCERN. I AM CONCERNED THAT SUPERCELLS MAY FORM OR
TRACK INTO THE WRN AND NWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TONIGHT. WITH THE
ATMOSPHERE SO UNSTABLE I AM ALSO CONCERNED ABOUT THE EFFECT OF
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

LOOKING AT THE 18Z HODOGRAPH...LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE MORE SWLY AND THE
HODOGRAPH IS NOT QUITE AS OMINOUS...BUT I AM STILL CONCERNED ABOUT
THE POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE NWRN ZONES. AS
STORMS ADVANCE EASTWARD THEY MAY TRANSITION INTO MORE OF A SQUALL
LINE TYPE EVENT.

QPF VALUES HAVE BEEN TOUGH TO NAIL DOWN BUT HEAVY RAIN FROM SLOW
MOVING STORMS AND TRAINING EFFECTS WILL BE A CONCERN...PRIMARILY IN
THE NWRN ZONES TONIGHT. I HAVE BEEN ON THE FENCE REGARDING THE
ISSUANCE OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THOSE AREAS TONIGHT. AFTER MUCH
DEBATE...I WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE FOR THOSE AREAS TONIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT. ANOTHER WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FARTHER SOUTH TOMORROW.

AS THINGS PROGRESS EASTWARD STORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA
THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. THERE ARE STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTIES ABOUT
THE SEVERITY OF THE EVENT AND THE TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS. IN
SHORT...THERE LOOKS TO BE A GOOD POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA TOMORROW AS WELL...ALTHOUGH THE TORNADO
THREAT LOOKS TO BE LOWER...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS AND HAIL. 53

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
ABOVE AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE WITH REGARD TO MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
SOLUTIONS EXISTS FOR THIS PERIOD.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING THROUGH MOST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY IN THIS
PERIOD...AND WILL PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS. INCREASING MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...THROUGH THE MID SOUTH WILL
PROMOTE CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS...AS WELL AS AS WARMING TREND
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD. 55

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     69  78  62  83 /  50  90  60  20
CAMDEN AR         72  84  69  86 /  20  60  60  30
HARRISON AR       62  72  57  81 /  80  80  40  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    71  80  67  85 /  40  70  60  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  70  84  68  85 /  40  60  60  30
MONTICELLO AR     73  87  69  85 /  20  60  60  40
MOUNT IDA AR      71  79  63  85 /  50  80  60  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  64  74  59  82 /  80  90  60  10
NEWPORT AR        70  81  63  85 /  40  80  70  30
PINE BLUFF AR     70  87  68  86 /  20  60  50  30
RUSSELLVILLE AR   71  79  61  84 /  60  80  60  20
SEARCY AR         70  81  64  84 /  40  70  60  30
STUTTGART AR      70  84  67  85 /  30  60  60  40
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR BAXTER-BOONE-JOHNSON-LOGAN-MARION-NEWTON-POLK-POPE-
SCOTT-SEARCY-YELL.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53 / LONG TERM...55