Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 290000 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
600 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT MOST SITES THIS EVENING...EXCEPT KPBF
AND KLLQ WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MVFR OR IFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES
THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT AS LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR
OUT. ELSEWHERE THE FORECAST IS NOT ENTIRELY CERTAIN. THINK THAT CLEAR
OR CLEARING SKIES...AND LOW OR LOWERING DEWPOINTS WILL COMBAT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS. HOWEVER ALL GUIDANCE POINTS TO
THE REDEVELOPMENT OF THESE FEATURES OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS SO HAVE CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS
LATER TONIGHT. UP NORTH DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER 20S
OVERNIGHT BUT TEMPS WILL APPROACH THESE VALUES OVERNIGHT THANKS TO
CLEAR SKIES AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING SO LEFT IN TEMPO 5SM THERE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

CDFNT WAS WELL EAST OF AR THIS AFTN...WITH A RDG OF HIGH PRES
ALIGNED JUST TO THE NW. THE RESULTING NLY WINDS CONT TO BRING COLDER
AIR INTO THE NATURAL STATE. PTCHY LGT RAIN ALSO LINGERED ACRS SERN
AR THRU MUCH OF DAY. LOW CLOUDS WERE SLOLY DCRSG ACRS NWRN AR AS
WELL.

PTCHY LIGHT RAIN WL LINGER OVR SERN AR EARLY TNGT BEFORE FINALLY
SHIFTING EWD AS THE MAIN UPR TROF AXIS WORKS ACRS THE AREA. LOW
CLOUDS WL CONT TO SLOLY ERODE OVR WRN AR TNGT AS DRIER LOW LVL AIR
ADVECTS INTO THE STATE. HOWEVER...BNDRY LAYER RH PROGS INDC THAT LOW
CLOUDS WL HANG IN OVR CNTRL AND ERN AR INTO MON.

CONTD COOL AND DRY CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR WL BLD INTO SWD INTO THE REGION LATE
MON INTO TUE. SOME CLOUDS WL ACCOMPANY THE WEAKENING FNTL BNDRY...
ALONG WITH A SMALL CHC OF FLURRIES. TEMPS WL RMN BLW SEASONAL NORMS.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WITH COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO START OFF THU.
THIS SFC HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST AS THE FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS
TO THE SW OVER THE REGION. AS THIS HAPPENS...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
STREAM NORTH OVER THE STATE. HAVE POPS INCREASING FOR THU AFTERNOON
AND ESPECIALLY THU NIGHT  AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS OVER AR. SFC
TEMPS WILL INITIALLY BE ABOVE FREEZING AS THE PRECIP DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE STATE...BUT WITH SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR IN NEAR THE SFC...DO EXPECT
SOME EVAPORATIVE COOLING TO ASSIST IN DROPPING TEMPS THU NIGHT TO
SEE SOME RAIN MIXING WITH SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEEING ANY SLEET OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL BE NORTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR...ESPECIALLY IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE OZARKS. WILL NOTE THAT UNCERTAINTIES EXIST IN
HOW MUCH MOISTURE AND HOW COLD THE AIR WILL BE AT THE ONSET OF
PRECIP OVER AR. AS A RESULT...CHANGES IN THE PRECIP TYPE FOR THU
NIGHT ARE POSSIBLE.

ANOTHER...MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE OF PRECIP WILL BE SEEN FOR FRI INTO
THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LOW EJECTS THE SWRN CONUS INTO THE
CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS. ENOUGH WARMING WILL BE ONGOING WITH THIS ROUND
OF PRECIP TO SEE ALL LIQUID. BEYOND SAT...UNCERTAINTY INCREASES
SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE MED RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE ON THE
OVERALL TIMING AND TRACK OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW. THE GFS IS QUICKER
AND LIFTS THE LOW FURTHER NORTH...WITH THE UPPER LOW LIFTING NE INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. HOWEVER...THE LATEST
EURO KEEPS THE LOW FURTHER SOUTH...TRACKING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS AR
INTO SUN. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...DO HOLD ONTO POPS A BIT LONGER
OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT ONLY AT SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     38  28  42  29 /  10  10   0  10
CAMDEN AR         44  34  48  33 /  50  10   0  10
HARRISON AR       38  26  41  26 /   0   0   0  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    42  30  46  30 /  20  10   0  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  41  31  44  31 /  30  10   0  10
MONTICELLO AR     42  36  47  34 /  70  30   0  10
MOUNT IDA AR      42  27  46  28 /  10   0   0  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  38  27  41  27 /  10   0   0  10
NEWPORT AR        38  29  43  30 /  20  10   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     41  34  45  33 /  50  20   0  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   42  28  45  29 /  10   0   0  10
SEARCY AR         39  29  43  29 /  20  10   0  10
STUTTGART AR      40  32  44  32 /  40  20   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64






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