Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 040544 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1144 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH ARKANSAS AT THIS TIME. DENSE FOG IS
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH ARKANSAS. VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1/4
MILE IS REPORTED AT SOME LOCATIONS. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
STATE LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO
FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND EVENTUALLY SNOW. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE STATE WILL SEE RAIN FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE DAY. MAINLY MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME LIFR CONDITIONS MAINLY THIS
MORNING.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 758 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

UPDATE...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES SURFACE BOUNDARY JUST NORTHWEST OF
ARKANSAS WITH COLDER AIR CONTINUING TO LAG SEVERAL HOURS OR MORE
BEHIND. TEMPERATURE CONTRAST IS QUITE APPARENT WITH READINGS IN
CENTRAL IOWA ALREADY DOWN IN THE TEEMS WHILE NORTHERN ARKANSAS
REMAINS IN THE LOWER 50S. PRECIPITATION ALSO CONTINUES TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE NORTH.

AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SOUTH AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL. DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE WITH VISIBILITY AS
LOW AS A QUARTER MILE ALREADY BEING REPORTED IN MANY AREAS.

NOT REAL VALUE ADDED CHANGES WILL BE FORTH COMING THIS EVENING WITH
CURRENT WARNINGS...TIMING CONCERNS...AND PRECIPITATION TYPES AND
AMOUNTS LOOKING SPOT ON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE IMPENDING WINTER
STORM SET TO AFFECT THE STATE TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS TONIGHT...THEN
MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. SUB-FREEZING AIR WILL LAG BEHIND THE FRONT ABOUT
4-6 HOURS OR SO...WITH TEMPS BELOW 32 REACHING HARRISON AND MTN
HOME AROUND DAYBREAK...THE I-40 CORRIDOR AROUND 2-3 PM...AND
FINALLY PUSHING SOUTH OF AREAS LIKE CAMDEN AND MONTICELLO AROUND 6
PM. THE COLD AIR WILL HANG UP INITIALLY IN THE OZARKS BUT ONCE IT
PUSHES EAST AROUND THE TERRAIN IT WILL SURGE SOUTH THROUGH THE
STATE...THUS THE REASON FOR THE SHORTER GAP BETWEEN THE ARRIVAL OF
FREEZING TEMPERATURES BETWEEN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOCATIONS THAN
BETWEEN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THE CHANGE FROM PLAIN RAIN
TO WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL COINCIDE WITH THE FREEZING LINE AS IT
PASSES THROUGH. ONCE TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING TOMORROW
SUB-FREEZING TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S SO TRAVEL
CONDITIONS WILL BE POOR DURING THAT TIME.

THERE IS STILL NOTABLE UNCERTAINTY ON TWO POINTS. THOSE ARE...JUST HOW
QUICKLY THE COLD LAYER WILL DEEPEN...AND HOW WARM THE WARM NOSE WILL
BE...AND THE EFFECTS THAT WILL HAVE ON PRECIP TYPE...AND SECONDLY WHERE
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. THE COARSER MODELS LIKE THE
GFS AND ECMW SHOW LESS OF A WARM NOSE AND THUS TAKE PRECIP TYPE
QUICKLY FROM RAIN TO SNOW TOMORROW...WITH ONLY ABOUT A 2 HOUR TIME
FRAME TO TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN TO SLEET AND
FINALLY TO SNOW. WHILE I BELIEVE THE NAM IS A BIT TOO WARM...A
BLEND BETWEEN THESE TOO CAMPS WOULD YIELD A SLOWER TRANSITION FROM
RAIN TO SNOW...WITH MORE TIME FOR ACCUMULATING FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET. THIS SEEMS TO BE A REASONABLE APPROACH AND HAVE TRENDED THE
FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION AS A RESULT. WILL TOUCH ON HOW THIS
AFFECTS ACCUMULATIONS IN A MOMENT. THE SECOND UNKNOWN IS WHERE THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR. ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF PRECIP BETWEEN DAYBREAK TOMORROW AND
MIDNIGHT TOMORROW NIGHT...WITH A WIDESPREAD AREA OF +1 QPF DURING
THAT TIME AND AN AXIS OF NEARLY 2 INCHES FORECAST SOMEWHERE ACROSS
ARKANSAS. EXPECT THAT THIS WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE I-30/US-67 CORRIDOR...OR BETWEEN MT IDA AND FORDYCE ON THE
SOUTHERN END AND BATESVILLE AND BRINKELY IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

REGARDING ACCUMULATIONS...GIVEN THE FORECAST AXIS OF HEAVY PRECIP
WILL COINCIDE WITH THE DEEPEST PART OF THE COLD DOME...EXPECT THAT
THE HEAVIEST SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS WILL STRETCH FROM CENTRAL
ARKANSAS TO THE NORTHEAST. THE FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH IN
TERMS OF VALUES...THEY SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 2 INCHES IN
CENTRAL ARKANSAS TO CLOSE TO 6 INCHES IN THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER
EXPECT THAT THESE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LARGELY COMPRISED OF
SLEET AS OPPOSED TO SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
REGARDLESS...ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL. ON THE ICE FRONT...ONCE AGAIN THE ARRIVAL AND DEPTH OF THE
COLD DOME...AS WELL AS THE HEAVY PRECIP AXIS...WILL GREATLY AFFECT
HOW MUCH ICE OCCURS. HAVE 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW/SLEET FORECAST FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF WALDRON TO HOT SPRINGS TO MONTICELLO...BUT HAVE A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR MORE OF ICE FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS.

AGAIN...THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES. BUT WHAT DOES APPEAR
CERTAIN IS THAT A SIGNIFICANT WINTER EVENT IS ABOUT TO UNFOLD.
GROUND TEMPERATURES MAY HOLD OFF ACCUMULATING WINTRY PRECIP ON
ROADWAYS...BUT WITHIN 2-3 HOURS OF ONSET OF FREEZING OR FROZEN
PRECIPITATION ROADWAYS WILL DETERIORATE QUICKLY. AND GIVEN THE
INFLUX OF VERY COLD AIR...ONCE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS DEVELOP
THEY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY
NIGHT. FURTHERMORE...WINDS WILL BE ELEVATED TOMORROW EVENING WILL
BE QUITE GUSTY AS WELL...POTENTIALLY FURTHER INCREASING THE
IMPACTS OF THIS EVENT AS IT PERTAINS TO UTILITY OUTAGES AND SUCH.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL START COLD WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
AGAIN FOR ARKANSAS. SOME LINGERING SNOW AND SLEET FROM THE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TO THURSDAY WINTER STORM WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN BELOW NORMAL
VALUES EVEN INTO THE WEEKEND. FRIDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST...WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE TEENS TO SOME THE 20S...TO LOWS ON SATURDAY MORNING
MOSTLY IN THE 20S. HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE 20S TO 30S...WHILE
SATURDAY IN THE 40S TO SOME 50S. BETTER WARMING THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO TUESDAY...WITH CLOSER TO NORMAL TEMPS.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
FORECAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WHILE UPPER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
OVER THE REGION MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. SOME WEAK FRONTS SAG
THROUGH THE REGION...WHILE WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES ARE
SEEN...BUT AT THIS TIME WITH LACK OF MOISTURE...HAVE KEPT FORECAST
DRY.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-
CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT
SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-
MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-PIKE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SHARP-WHITE-
WOODRUFF.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR BAXTER-BOONE-CLEBURNE-FULTON-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-
JOHNSON-MARION-NEWTON-POPE-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR ARKANSAS-CLARK-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-FAULKNER-GARLAND-
GRANT-HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MONROE-
MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR BRADLEY-CALHOUN-DESHA-DREW-OUACHITA.
&&

$$

AVIATION...51




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