Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 110228
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
828 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

.UPDATE...
At 8pm, many observations across the central and southern
portions of the CWA show that temperatures have held steady, or
have started to rise in response to warm air advection in front of
the approaching system. As a result, have adjusted overnight lows
to reflect a gradual warming trend (especially after midnight) throughout
the night.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 600 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2016)

AVIATION...
Some persistent cloud cover across the North/West half of the
state has kept ceilings between 5000 and 6000 feet. As the next
system approaches, ceilings will drop to/near MVFR levels by
dawn. Winds are expected to stay steady, or even strengthen
overnight, resulting in winds upwards of 10-15 mph out of the
south.

Isolated to scattered showers will enter the region tomorrow mid
morning from the west, making it the central terminals by noon... have
included VCSH at all terminals accordingly. MVFR conditions can be
expected with the rainfall, with brief periods of IFR
possible...though have left out of TAFS due to
coverage/uncertainty.

PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 250 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2016)

Short term...Tonight through Monday night

Models this afternoon have come into slightly better agreement
concerning the next approaching shortwave trough and as such, a
blend of solutions will be used.

The arctic high responsible for the brief cold snap has pushed off
well to the east of the area. Light southeast winds on ts backside
is helping to pull temperatures back into the 40s for most
locations. Southerly flow will continue between the departing high
and the approaching trough to keep temperatures on the upswing.

Largely zonal but progressive upper flow will continue through the
period. A shortwave trough remains caught up in this flow and is
forecast to move across the northern tier of states tonight through
Sunday night. Meanwhile, a surface low will spin up in the central
plains and move off to the northeast. Attendant cold front along
with a separate upper level impulse interacting with it, will move
into northwest Arkansas by the end of the day.

Scattered precipitation will develop over the west Sunday afternoon
and become more widespread and heavier as the boundary sweeps east.
Aforementioned southerly flow will keep temperatures warm enough
that only liquid precipitation is expected with rain likely for most
areas Sunday night before the precipitation tapers off from the
northwest towards morning.

Most of the precipitation will end by day break Monday except over
the southeast  part of the area where it is expected to linger for
several hours as the front gets hung up a bit to our south. Neither
excessive rain or winter weather is anticipated. Temperatures will
average near normal.
$$

Long Term...Tuesday through Saturday

As we start out this forecast period all of the precip with the
preceding system will have moved south and east of the state. A cold
front will move through Tuesday and will bring clearing skies and
seasonal temps. Surface high will remain north of the state as is
slides east of the area late Thu. With the surface high north of the
area, an easterly surface flow will bring clouds back into the area
and perhaps bring some patchy drizzle or very light rain showers
across the southern portions of the CWA late Tue night and Wed. A
bit drier Wed night and Thu as a reinforcing shot of Canadian/arctic
air filters in across the state. By late Thu the surface high is
positioned well east of the state allowing for a return flow
allowing low level moisture to begins its return. This is where
things get complicated and interesting. In addition to the low level
flow, a strengthening large upper level low will be taking shape
off the CA coast which will allow for a southwesterly flow aloft
which will set the stage for several days of light precip. The
concern is that it could be a mix of precip across much of the state
Thu night and at least part of the day on Friday. The wintry mix, if
it does occur, would eventually transition to all rain from south to
north on Friday but could possibly linger into Fri night across the
north. Certainly all rain by Sat but another cold front moving
through Sat night could bring a wintry mix back into the picture
late Sat night and Sunday.

Confidence is moderately high that precip will occur beginning Thu
night or Friday and continue through the weekend. Confidence is low
on on just when, exactly where. and how much wintry precip may fall
before changing to rain. This will be closely monitored for the next
several days.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$


Update/Aviation... Brown
Short Term....56 / Long Term...32


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