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000
FXUS64 KLZK 141137
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
637 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION IS STILL TRYING TO DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT
ACROSS N AR...SO LEFT IN VCTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY FOR KHRO AND
KBPK. TS SHOULD BE S OF THESE TWO TAFS BY THE MIDDLE OF THIS
EVENING. FOR OTHER TAF SITES...HELD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF TS TIL
THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THE TIME BEING...INDICATED PROB30 IN THE TIME
PERIODS WHERE TS SEEM MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR. COULD NEED SOME TEMPO
GROUPS IN LATER TAFS WHEN DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE BECOME MORE
CERTAIN. EXPECT TS WILL BE S OF KLIT...KHOT...AND KADF BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT...BUT TS WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE AT KPBF AND KLLQ AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
SHORT TERM MODELS NOT SHOWING ANY REAL SURPRISES THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A GENERALLY UNSETTLED PATTERN. PATTERN REMAINS
HIGHLIGHTED BY AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER MID WEST
AND GREAT LAKES REGION THAT IS EASILY PICKED OUT ON MOISTURE CHANNEL
IMAGERY THIS MORNING. WITH SHORT TERM MODELS IN BASIC AGREEMENT ON
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...WILL
CONTINUE TO BLEND SOLUTIONS WITH A LEAN TOWARDS THE SLIGHTLY MORE
CONSISTENT ECMWF.

ANOTHER HOT AND MUGGY DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA BEFORE SOME MUCH
WELCOMED RELIEF WITH A SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS
EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS THIS CHANGE OCCURS WITH POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT RAIN POSSIBLE LATER IN THE PERIOD. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
TOP OUT IN THE 90S TODAY WITH HEAT INDICES OVER 100 DEGREES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH. ONCE AGAIN WE FALL SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA
AND NO HEAT RELATED HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE FORTHCOMING THIS MORNING.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF RELATIVELY STRONG CONVECTION
THIS CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A WEAK FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
WITH THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT STILL WELL OFF TO THE NORTH.
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW AND TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PIVOT THROUGH THE
UPPER LAKES TO NEAR ST JAMES BAY BY MID DAY WEDNESDAY DRIVING THE
FIRST BOUNDARY THROUGH THE STATE THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY THE MAIN
COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVING THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE BY MID DAY TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AS THESE BOUNDARIES MOVE THROUGH AND SOME
SEVERE WEATHER CAN NOT BE DISCOUNTED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE WITH THE INITIAL BOUNDARY RUNNING INTO A VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS.

FRONT WILL STALL TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE STATE WITH A MUCH
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS IN ITS WAKE COURTESY OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES COULD BE 10 DEGREES OR MORE BELOW NORMAL
ACROSS PRIMARILY THE NORTH BUT ALL PARTS OF THE STATE WILL SEE WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING. WILL
GO A TOUCH BELOW GUIDANCE TODAY WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER BUT
OVERALL THE MAV/MEX NUMBERS LOOK REASONABLE.

ANOTHER UPPER WAVE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EMERGE IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH THE STALLED
BOUNDARY RESULTING IN WHAT COULD POTENTIALLY BE A SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL EVENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE
GENERATING SIGNIFICANT QPF IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES GENERALLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 BUT CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK REMAINS A CONCERN. IF QPF
FIELDS DO INDEED VERIFY...FLOODING WILL BE A LEGITIMATE CONCERN.
REGARDLESS... IT APPEARS A VERY WET PERIOD IS SHAPING UP TO ROUND
OUT THE SHORT TERM.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT PCPN WILL STILL HAVE REASONABLE
COVERAGE DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY FRIDAY...BUT WILL DIMINISH
AS THE DAY GOES ALONG. THUS...ADJUSTED POPS DOWNWARD SOMEWHAT BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...POPS SETTLE
BACK CLOSE TO THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME 20 PCT.

WITH CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...TEMPS WILL CONTINUE BELOW
NORMAL. HOWEVER...LESS CLOUDINESS WILL LEAD TO TEMPS RETURNING BACK
TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     91  67  81  61 /  50  50  10  10
CAMDEN AR         97  74  89  66 /  30  60  40  10
HARRISON AR       91  63  78  58 /  40  30  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    96  71  86  64 /  30  50  30  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  94  71  84  63 /  40  50  30  10
MONTICELLO AR     96  73  88  65 /  30  60  40  10
MOUNT IDA AR      96  71  85  64 /  30  40  20  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  90  64  79  59 /  50  40  10  10
NEWPORT AR        91  68  81  62 /  50  60  20  10
PINE BLUFF AR     95  72  86  65 /  30  60  40  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   93  68  82  62 /  40  40  10  10
SEARCY AR         92  69  82  62 /  50  60  20  10
STUTTGART AR      94  71  84  64 /  40  60  30  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...28