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000
FXUS64 KLZK 092106
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
306 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2010

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE PLAINS
OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS THIS EVENING IN THE
NORTH/EAST...WITH A CHANCE OF FLURRIES. ELSEWHERE...A MOSTLY CLEAR
SKY IS EXPECTED...WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES.

THE HIGH WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
STAY COLD...ESPECIALLY WHERE HEAVY SNOW LINGERS.

THE HIGH WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...WITH
CLOUDS INCREASING. A STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG THE GULF
COAST...AND WILL SPREAD SOME MOISTURE INTO ARKANSAS.

THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT...MAINLY IN CENTRAL/SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
STATE. FOR NOW...HAVE 1 TO 2 INCH ACCUMULATIONS IN THE FORECAST
GRIDS FROM LITTLE ROCK SOUTHWARD.

THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT ON FRIDAY...WITH ANY SNOW ENDING AND DRY
WEATHER RETURNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
GFS NOW FALLING IN LINE WITH EARLIER ECMWF FORECASTS...BRINGING A
CLOSED LOW ALOFT SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY
LATE IN THE WEEKEND. A SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THAT TIME FRAME...MOST LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

I AM STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN ABOUT THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT I
WILL GO AHEAD AND PUT CHC POPS IN THE SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY TIME FRAME.
DEPENDING UPON THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM AND THE TEMPERATURES...THERE
COULD BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE STATE. WITH THE FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PUSHING THROUGH RAPIDLY...I DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EVENT AT THIS TIME.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     16  32  19  34 /  10   0  10  10
CAMDEN AR         24  41  27  40 /   0   0  10  30
HARRISON AR       15  32  20  35 /  10   0  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    19  36  25  37 /   0   0  10  30
LITTLE ROCK   AR  17  35  23  35 /   0   0  10  20
MONTICELLO AR     23  41  26  40 /   0   0  10  30
MOUNT IDA AR      19  37  25  37 /   0   0  10  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  15  32  19  35 /  10   0  10  10
NEWPORT AR        17  32  19  33 /  10   0  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     21  37  25  38 /   0   0  10  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   15  35  23  36 /  10   0  10  20
SEARCY AR         17  34  21  34 /  10   0  10  10
STUTTGART AR      19  35  23  36 /   0   0  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...46 / LONG TERM...53